New Mutants 98 CGC 10.0

[spidermanbeyond]

Congrads. What a surprise on such a highly desired book. I think Comiclink is a good way to go (better than Heritage who take too much with their premium). Auction it off with a reserve and see what happens. I think the sky is the limit.

[Sal]

FK's going to be able to buy an entire shipping container full of flip-flops with this score, and still have some money left over to buy lunch for a half-dozen Forumites at a Con

[Bomfy]

Congrats, really neat that it sat around so long and is still a 10.

[comix4fun]

FK's going to be able to buy an entire shipping container full of flip-flops with this score, and still have some money left over to buy lunch for a half-dozen Forumites at a Con

 

 

 

[ThoseBackPages]

NICE!

[THE_BEYONDER]

Congrads. What a surprise on such a highly desired book. I think Comiclink is a good way to go (better than Heritage who take too much with their premium). Auction it off with a reserve and see what happens. I think the sky is the limit.

 

No reserve

 

 

That's silly

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

I agree with the consensus that 9.9s will suffer and 9.8s will probably not.

 

I'm also thinking that this must be good for the hobby overall - waves of collectors buying up multiple copies of new issues, scouring bargain bins, scanning registries, increasing submissions, all in search of the elusive first 10.0.

 

It's a good day in comic-ville

[THE_BEYONDER]

 

It's a good day in comic-ville

 

 

 

[mrmyst]

Congrads. What a surprise on such a highly desired book. I think Comiclink is a good way to go (better than Heritage who take too much with their premium). Auction it off with a reserve and see what happens. I think the sky is the limit.

 

No reserve

 

 

That's silly

It doesn't need a reserve.

[miraclemet]

Congrads. What a surprise on such a highly desired book. I think Comiclink is a good way to go (better than Heritage who take too much with their premium). Auction it off with a reserve and see what happens. I think the sky is the limit.

 

No reserve

 

 

That's silly

 

Agreed, I was thinking about it. With the number of 9.9 owners out there, just one will do enough to "price enforce" the 10.0 price past any reasonable reserve.

 

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

 

 

Congrads. What a surprise on such a highly desired book. I think Comiclink is a good way to go (better than Heritage who take too much with their premium). Auction it off with a reserve and see what happens. I think the sky is the limit.

 

No reserve

 

 

That's silly

It doesn't need a reserve.

 

That's what I meant. A reserve is silly. It's a modern 10.0

 

Let it friggin ride

[newshane]

CHA-CHING!

 

[miraclemet]

So are there any comps out there?

 

(not specifically, but similar cases of the discovery of a 10.0 of such a key copper age book?)

 

I mean there are 14 Spider-Man #1s out there (with 83 9.9s and 1700+ 9.8s)

 

It's be like an ASM 252 showing up in 10.0 (there are 7 9.9s and 700+ 9.8s)... thats actually a great comp (if an ASM 252 ever shows up, just comparing census numbers....

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

So are there any comps out there?

 

(not specifically, but similar cases of the discovery of a 10.0 of such a key copper age book?)

 

I mean there are 14 Spider-Man #1s out there (with 83 9.9s and 1700+ 9.8s)

 

It's be like an ASM 252 showing up in 10.0 (there are 7 9.9s and 700+ 9.8s)... thats actually a great comp (if an ASM 252 ever shows up, just comparing census numbers....

 

It would be interesting to see the percentage price increase of the first 10.0 vs existing 9.9's or even 9.8's on the day it was sold, and how that varied with keys and non-keys in different ages, price ranges, etc.

[miraclemet]

earliest sales data on a 10.0 Spiderman #1 is from 2004

 

IN 2004 there were 3 10.0 Spider-Mans sold for an average price of $450

In 2004 there were 12 9.9 Spider-Mans sold for about an avg of $80

In 2004 there were 97 9.8 Spider-Man 1s sold for about $40 ea

 

 

10.0 Spidermans seemed to keep steady around that price until the last few years where they've gone up (2 of last 4 sales have been for $700+

 

the 9.8 to 9.9 prices dont line up mostly cause of the plethora of 9.9s out there vs the 9.8 vs 9.9 prices of the NM98

[miraclemet]

So are there any comps out there?

 

(not specifically, but similar cases of the discovery of a 10.0 of such a key copper age book?)

 

I mean there are 14 Spider-Man #1s out there (with 83 9.9s and 1700+ 9.8s)

 

It's be like an ASM 252 showing up in 10.0 (there are 7 9.9s and 700+ 9.8s)... thats actually a great comp (if an ASM 252 ever shows up, just comparing census numbers....

 

another good parallel is Uncanny X-men #266.

1st appearance of Gambit (so that's similar to NM98)

9 9.9s on census

763 9.8s

 

so again its close to NM98 in terms of census (pre 10.0 discovery)

 

a 9.9 X-men 266 sells for an average of $2k

a 9.8 sells for average of $235

 

so while the prices arent the same they do keep kinda close to the 10x multiplier from 9.8 to 9.8 (NM98 9.8=$350, a 9.9 $4100

 

So I think UXM 9.9 owners will be very interested in the data on NM98 10.0

 

ASM 252 is less similar in that its multiplier from 9.8 to 9.9 is more than 20x ($235 to $5k when going from 9.8 to 9.9) guess first black costume is bigger than 1st deadpool or 1st gambit.

[miraclemet]

ASM #300 (1st Venom) looks like a decent though not exactly parallel comp too.

 

9 9.9s average sale over $4k

470 9.8s avg value over $600

 

So we have less than a 10x multiplier from 9.8 to 9.9, but I attribute that to a lower # (by ratio) of 9.8s compared to the other two examples (UXM266 and NM98)

 

Again just another book whose 9.9 owners will be interested to see the impact of a 10.0 on their books market value.

 

still have not found a late copper 10.0 key first showing up in the last 5-6 years.

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

So using the more stable 9.8 to 10.0 percentage price increase...

Spider-man #1: 1,025%

 

New Mutants 98 CGC 9.8 is currently selling for about $330 on eBay

 

Using the above multiplier...

 

(330)(10.25) = $3,382.50

 

Well, we know that's not right, so we need more appropriate ratios, and data correlating the "first" 10.0 to existing 9.8 or 9.9 prices on the date of the 10.0 sale.

[TheShadowKnows]

No idea really. I submitted it with one other and some other moderns. I barely looked at the book before subbing and just thought it looked nice.

 

 

You should totally crack it to add a Liefeld Sig....it might jump to 11.

Or a 1

[miraclemet]

So using the more stable 9.8 to 10.0 percentage price increase...

Spider-man #1: 1,025%

 

New Mutants 98 CGC 9.8 is currently selling for about $330 on eBay

 

Using the above multiplier...

 

(330)(10.25) = $3,382.50

 

Well, we know that's not right, so we need more appropriate ratios, and data correlating the "first" 10.0 to existing 9.8 or 9.9 prices on the date of the 10.0 sale.

 

I think the better comp might be New Mutants #1

 

2 10.0s on census.

one sale in 2008 (not sure if it was of the first 10.0, but its the first and only one in GPA, and was sold on ebay)

10.0 sold for $800

9.9s sold for $200 in the same year

9.8s sold for $50

 

So we are looking at a 4x multipler from 9.9 to 10.0

and a 18x multiplier from 9.8 to 10.0

 

NM1 census is

10.0 x2

9.9 x 4

9.8 x387

 

so the ratios from 9.8 to 9.9 are close (about 100 9.8s for every 1 9.9)

but there are two 10.0s (though only one public sale)

 

NM98 has the same ratio of about 100 9.8s for every 9.9 (its actually a little better)

 

so lets use the 18x multiplier for the 9.8 to 10.0 value

 

A 9.8 NM98 goes for $350 so a 10.0 by the multiplier would be $6300

 

Which seems low, and that instinct bores out since a NM1 9.9 is only selling for (on average) 4x the 9.8 price...

 

by comparison the average NM98 9.9 is selling for almost 12x the 9.8 price ($350 vs $4100)... so the market is definately more interested in high grade NM98s over NM1s.

 

I think a reasonable market estmitae would be to use the 4x multiplier that was shown in the NM1 10.0 sale (vs 9.9 price) and ballpark the 10.0 NM98 at $16k.

 

The upside of the 10.0?

 

No one is every going to have a higher grade one... (unless Fks comes back as OW/W pages... kidding!), so I think people are more willing to break the bank on a guarentee top census (worst that can happen is another 10.0 shows up and hurts SOME of the value, but nothing like an overcopy showing up.