THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[piper]

3 minutes ago, drbanner said:

Do you guys think the comic book "Amazing Fantasy #15" (1st appearance of the Amazing Spider-Man) is a good investment at current prices? 

Nope but I've bet for years against prices continuing to skyrocket and I've been wrong.

[zhamlau]

I think these are all valid points, I just find it odd. My fear is this will somehow spread to the other books im looking to buy. I dont do as much with graded as with art but Ive dedicated this year to getting my top 10 books. Im hoping these price wars dont translate to other books.

[G.A.tor]

1 hour ago, zhamlau said:

If the same label/grade book can increase nearly 100% in 5 month, and not like 10 dollars to 20 but one of the most expensive books in the hobby....Houston we have a problem. Something is failing in the model. I got it, prices have gone up exponentially out of the blue across the board in just a few months. But that type of swing, I got problems with. And I'm not just sour-graping it because im left out, I just picked up a 5.5 OW/W before all this price explosion occurred. Even if on some level this benefits me, I still find it troubling. The smartest guys in the hobby who have decades of experience have said this wouldn't/shouldn't happen yet it does. Basic sense tells me a book as highly graded and easily available shouldn't da-n near double in price in 5 months (especially with how many raw copies out there coming into the market every week).

I'm just saying, this doesnt make much sense. I find it problematic.

one has to consider the difference between short to long term established market pricing (FMV) and outlier sales that can be affected by a myriad of reasons... one snapshot of the market doesn't necessarily mean that is the "market" (could become, of course)...

but strictly on the surface a 5.0 sold for 57, then another 5.0 sold for 36...there are reasons for this as folks have pointed out...

the key is time... let's see how more auctions and the summer con selling season go, and then I believe we can reevaluate...

[Jaydogrules]

1 hour ago, zhamlau said:

If the same label/grade book can increase nearly 100% in 5 month, and not like 10 dollars to 20 but one of the most expensive books in the hobby....Houston we have a problem. Something is failing in the model. I got it, prices have gone up exponentially out of the blue across the board in just a few months. But that type of swing, I got problems with. And I'm not just sour-graping it because im left out, I just picked up a 5.5 OW/W before all this price explosion occurred. Even if on some level this benefits me, I still find it troubling. The smartest guys in the hobby who have decades of experience have said this wouldn't/shouldn't happen yet it does. Basic sense tells me a book as highly graded and easily available shouldn't da-n near double in price in 5 months (especially with how many raw copies out there coming into the market every week).

I'm just saying, this doesnt make much sense. I find it problematic.

First, congratulations on picking up your 5.5 in the nick of time before the price spike (it would call it "recent", but as I've pointed out before, it actually started more than a year ago at this point).

Second, as to assertion about new raw copies coming to market every week, well let's check the census to see what the vast majority of those copies have looked like since 2000 (when CGC started).  Out of about 2300 copies submitted, 750 are restored (about 27.5%).  And out of about 1650 graded blue label copies, the average grade is 3.62.  

Whatever else is left out there, odds are many are restored and most are very low grade  (based on the sample size we have now).  

This, of course, isn't taking into account all of the multiple CPR's that have been done with this book that are skewing the census artificially higher.   

At the end of the day, this book us much rarer, even in decent mid grade condition, than many would have you believe, and I also believe the actual amount of decent, grade-able copies left in the wild is more myth than reality at this point (although I have no doubt there is certainly a palpable amount, but clearly not enough to negatively impact prices at this point, not even in low grade).

-J.

[Spiderturtle]

51 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

one has to consider the difference between short to long term established market pricing (FMV) and outlier sales that can be affected by a myriad of reasons... one snapshot of the market doesn't necessarily mean that is the "market" (could become, of course)...

but strictly on the surface a 5.0 sold for 57, then another 5.0 sold for 36...there are reasons for this as folks have pointed out...

the key is time... let's see how more auctions and the summer con selling season go, and then I believe we can reevaluate...

September is a good time to give a recap of the current market

[G.A.tor]

5 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

September is a good time to give a recap of the current market

I usually wait till Mid October when NYCC is over (arguably the last major US con)... will be interesting to see where this book is at

[G.A.tor]

36 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

First, congratulations on picking up your 5.5 in the nick of time before the price spike (it would call it "recent", but as I've pointed out before, it actually started more than a year ago at this point).

 

with the exception of 2010, where copies across virtually all grades did a double digit pull back in pricing from 2009, the book has been on the uptick for 6 consecutive years...a nice, slow and steady pace up, in general, until 2016, when we saw some "big" price jumps (relative, of course...nothing like we have seen in the past few months)...the last time we saw these type of increases, were 2008 to 2009 when many copies were up 50-100% in a single year

one could interpret the data and assume 2018 will be a pull back year, if we view the market as cyclical...

then again, who knows, the market might continue to steam ahead forward and reach even new highs...time will tell

[blazingbob]

I thought the oracle could see out into the selling universe and know in real time what the AF #15 market is doing?  Isn't that the point of "Ask Gator".  Not "Ask Gator in October"

[thirdgreenham]

10 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

I thought the oracle could see out into the selling universe and know in real time what the AF #15 market is doing?  Isn't that the point of "Ask Gator".  Not "Ask Gator in October"

[G.A.tor]

2 hours ago, blazingbob said:

I thought the oracle could see out into the selling universe and know in real time what the AF #15 market is doing?  Isn't that the point of "Ask Gator".  Not "Ask Gator in October"

better answer in Oct

[Dark Knight]

39 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

better answer in Oct

[VintageComics]

On 2017-05-01 at 3:03 PM, lou_fine said:

Roy;

As you have said many times before, you cannot really grade a book simply from just a front and back cover scan.  I fully agree with your point that you need to have the actual book in hand in order to grade it properly.

So, how would potential bidders for a book be able to determine if a particular book is "upgradeable" or possibly have upgrade potential if they do not have not seen the actual book in question?  Is it simply nothing more than a best guess based upon what they are seeing on the covers or do they do it in combination with the Grader's Notes in order to hopefully provide them with more information? 

You can view the books in hand.

I viewed some of the Metro books (including the AF #15 CGC 9.0) in hand when I was in NYC the week before the auction ended.

Although some buyers will buy just based on scans and grading notes.

[VintageComics]

17 hours ago, zhamlau said:

A 6.5 sold for like 36k just a few months ago, with decent PQ as well. It was a solid book if i remember correctly. Thats coming close to a 100% price increase in same grade against the last recorded GPA sale back a few months ago. Thats stupid enough. These prices dont make sense.

They don't.

[SC22]

13 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

They don't.

Yes they do. Fluctuation is normal till a new norm is established then it will stabilize till the cycle starts over again some time in the future. During this time some will over pay and some will pay just about the right new ''normal'' value.

Edited May 2, 2017 by SC22

[jabats]

Perhaps the demand curve has shifted ?

New buyers entering the market? Overseas buyers worried about inflation & looking for hard assets?

Just speculation, no evidence to back that up. But the fine art market has had the same structural shift in its demand curve in the past 10-15 years... and the new money gravitates towards the blue chip type assets (e.g. Warhol & Picasso may be the fine art equivalent of AF15's and Tec 27's...)

[VintageComics]

8 hours ago, jabats said:

Just speculation, no evidence to back that up. But the fine art market has had the same structural shift in its demand curve in the past 10-15 years... and the new money gravitates towards the blue chip type assets (e.g. Warhol & Picasso may be the fine art equivalent of AF15's and Tec 27's...)

Wouldn't the last 8-9 years be more accurate? Pre 2008 everything seemed much cheaper. It's in less than the last decade that we've seen exponential appreciation (at least in the collectibles that I've been aware of - cars, comics, card, art).

[cbbcomics]

36 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Wouldn't the last 8-9 years be more accurate? Pre 2008 everything seemed much cheaper. It's in less than the last decade that we've seen exponential appreciation (at least in the collectibles that I've been aware of - cars, comics, card, art).

It's ironic you point out 2008. I stopped collecting when I was a teen. I hauled around 2 long boxes of premiere stuff for years  (Spawn #1, Death of Sup, Gen 13 #1, Wolvie Mini #1).  In 2008, my buddy got me back into collecting. I was nearly 30 at the time. A few searches on eBay and my jaw dropped...not because my Gen 13 wasn't a $50 book anymore, but because comics were everywhere at astronomical prices  (when compared to 15 years prior). And this crazy encapsulation, 3rd party grading system??? What was this all about? The bug hit me and I dove in head first. But being an E-6 in the military at the time and trying to support a family, ASM 300, Hulk 181, GSX 1, etc, were about the most I could afford. I fell in love with Spidey again, though. ASM 1 in about a 6.0 was a few grand. AF15 became my grail of grails, a 4.0 was about 4K if I remember correctly. Fast forwarding nearly 10 years, I'm making considerably more income, but the price equivalent of AF15 compared to the increase in my income has left me in about the same place.  I was able to finally acquire my AF15, though (thanks Bob!). No point to my story. Just wanted to reminisce. Have a great day, Roy.

[drbanner]

17 minutes ago, bringsenseback said:

AF15 became my grail of grails, a 4.0 was about 4K if I remember correctly. Fast forwarding nearly 10 years, I'm making considerably more income, but the price equivalent of AF15 compared to the increase in my income has left me in about the same place. 

Good example showing that the price of AF 15 relative to the (# of minimum wage hours) (% of the average American income) (% of the price of a new 4-door Sedan) etc. makes the price increases of the last 10 years untenable for the next 10 years, or next year for that matter. The demand side of the economics of this book is driving prices, because as Lou_Fine has pointed out, the supply is there. If a 4.0 sold for $4K in 2008 and is selling for $24K 9 years later, anyone think a 4.0 will be selling for $125K+ in 9 years? Me either...

Edited May 3, 2017 by drbanner

[cbbcomics]

2 minutes ago, drbanner said:

the price of AF 15 relative to the (# of minimum wage hours) (% of the average American income) (% of the price of a new 4-door Sedan) etc. makes the price increases of the last 10 years untenable for the next 10 years, or next year for that matter.

[VintageComics]

52 minutes ago, bringsenseback said:

It's ironic you point out 2008. I stopped collecting when I was a teen. I hauled around 2 long boxes of premiere stuff for years  (Spawn #1, Death of Sup, Gen 13 #1, Wolvie Mini #1).  In 2008, my buddy got me back into collecting. I was nearly 30 at the time. A few searches on eBay and my jaw dropped...not because my Gen 13 wasn't a $50 book anymore, but because comics were everywhere at astronomical prices  (when compared to 15 years prior). And this crazy encapsulation, 3rd party grading system??? What was this all about? The bug hit me and I dove in head first. But being an E-6 in the military at the time and trying to support a family, ASM 300, Hulk 181, GSX 1, etc, were about the most I could afford. I fell in love with Spidey again, though. ASM 1 in about a 6.0 was a few grand. AF15 became my grail of grails, a 4.0 was about 4K if I remember correctly. Fast forwarding nearly 10 years, I'm making considerably more income, but the price equivalent of AF15 compared to the increase in my income has left me in about the same place.  I was able to finally acquire my AF15, though (thanks Bob!). No point to my story. Just wanted to reminisce. Have a great day, Roy.

Good story.

I felt the same way when I got onto eBay about 15 years ago. I was shocked at how things had changed since the 90's!