Comic Book Investing

[HighStakesComics]

Lets not forget most of these "investments" were originally priced at $.10-$.15. Even mid-grade JLA's and Sgt Fury's going for $15 have gone up 10,000%+. The majority of books get a 5-10% bump in the guide. I'm not saying to roll 20% of your 401k into a Showcase #4, but to say that books are a poor investment is inaccurate, especially when 5 year CD's are yielding 1.5%.

What are uncirculated nickels and dimes from the era going for?

 

Would it have been better to buy a fifteen cent comic and hope it doesn't get damaged over the course of the next forty years, or just put that nickel and dime away in uncirculated condition and cash it in forty years later? Do you think the comic will climb a steady ten thousand percent every four decades or so?

 

Errrrrrrrrrrr.........if the coins were uncirculated how would I have bought them, let alone known about them? Comics are and have always been easy to obtain.

[Bookery]

Ah, one of the hearty perennials around here.

 

The main points have already been made, with the bottom line being that anyone who is spending serious money on comics today with the expectation of returns over the next 20 years that will be better than he would receive by buying a stock index fund is almost certain to be disappointed.

 

One point not made this time around, although I've made it in similar threads in the past: We have been in a long bull market for comics. The factors driving the market include:

 

1. The increase in selling venues that have made comics a national market (to some extent even an international one), thereby greatly increasing both demand and liquidity: eBay, HA, CC, Clink

 

2. CGC, which has greatly increased the liquidity of high dollar books

 

3. Baby boomers moving into their prime earning years

 

4. The immense popularity of superhero movies

 

To argue that comics will earn the same returns going forward as they have in the past, you have to believe that there will be additional sources of demand as important as those listed above. It is difficult for me, at any rate, to imagine what those might be.

 

With respect to points 3. and 4. above, baby boomers will soon be net sellers rather than buyers. Although superhero movies seem to go from strength to strength, eventually the public will tire of them -- as they have of other genres.

 

For comics to be a poor investment going forward, it's not necessary that interest in them collapses; it's only necessary that it fails to increase much from here. Apple at $700 per share turned out to be a lousy investment, but not because demand for iPhones collapsed.

 

An excellent summary.

 

I understand the overall frustration.... for the middle class, at least right now, there really are no really viable worthwhile "investments" to be had. CDs etc. pay so little interest as to be useless. Real estate is still highly volatile and could go either way. Stocks rise purely due to activities of the Fed, but even so, with the current economy there's no way I'm buying into a DOW at 17,000.

 

That pretty much leaves only speculation for most people, or sitting things out until the situation looks better. Comics as "short term speculation" may be as good (or bad) as any other such endeavor.

 

However, the problem with all "pop culture investments" over the long term, is that they are in fact "pop culture" investments. Nothing stays popular forever. How liquid are your Big Little Books now? Or your dime novels? Or your Robert Frost collection? (or any poetry collection for that matter). Sure... some key items in any area may move upward... but the potential buying base still gets smaller. How are those Bev Doolittle prints doing, or the more obvious Beanie Babies, or Disney collectibles, or Davy Crockett stuff, etc.

 

All pop culture stuff has a limited window of opportunity... sometimes that window is only a couple of years, sometimes it's 2 or 3 decades. But few areas retain popularity across more than a couple of generations.

 

Comics did not hit their stride as a "collectibles commodity" until the late 70s or early 80s, when several years of Overstreet guides and a few big sales finally brought them media attention. They're already into their second generation of interest, so banking on them for many more decades goes against history.

 

Short term, however... everything is pretty much speculation right now, so comics may well be better for the collector who avidly follows and studies them than speculating in something they have no background in at all.

 

[dupont2005]

Lets not forget most of these "investments" were originally priced at $.10-$.15. Even mid-grade JLA's and Sgt Fury's going for $15 have gone up 10,000%+. The majority of books get a 5-10% bump in the guide. I'm not saying to roll 20% of your 401k into a Showcase #4, but to say that books are a poor investment is inaccurate, especially when 5 year CD's are yielding 1.5%.

What are uncirculated nickels and dimes from the era going for?

 

Would it have been better to buy a fifteen cent comic and hope it doesn't get damaged over the course of the next forty years, or just put that nickel and dime away in uncirculated condition and cash it in forty years later? Do you think the comic will climb a steady ten thousand percent every four decades or so?

 

Errrrrrrrrrrr.........if the coins were uncirculated how would I have bought them, let alone known about them? Comics are and have always been easy to obtain.

The bank? They come in rolls.

[Dr. Balls]

I'm still always amazed at the fact people confuse "investing" with "gambling". But, then again, I'm always amazed at people who respond to Nigerian emails, but it happens.

[october]

I'm still always amazed at the fact people confuse "investing" with "gambling". But, then again, I'm always amazed at people who respond to Nigerian emails, but it happens.

 

While my investment portfolio contains exactly $0 in comics despite buying and selling them on a daily basis, I don't think it's fair to lump all of comic buying into gambling or speculating.

 

Blue chip comics have decades worth of price data. That's more than a lot of stocks. Buying 100 copies of the new Image #1 is speculating, buying a 4.0 copy of AF 15 with decades worth of incremental increases in value shouldn't be in the same boat.

[HighStakesComics]

I believe in comics you can write off a portion of your losses if you can demonstrate an established pattern of buying and selling. You can pi$$ $25k all over the blackjack table 12 drinks deep and the IRS will only show you sympathy if you won that money at the casino to begin with.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Ah, one of the hearty perennials around here.

 

The main points have already been made, with the bottom line being that anyone who is spending serious money on comics today with the expectation of returns over the next 20 years that will be better than he would receive by buying a stock index fund is almost certain to be disappointed.

 

One point not made this time around, although I've made it in similar threads in the past: We have been in a long bull market for comics. The factors driving the market include:

 

1. The increase in selling venues that have made comics a national market (to some extent even an international one), thereby greatly increasing both demand and liquidity: eBay, HA, CC, Clink

 

2. CGC, which has greatly increased the liquidity of high dollar books

 

3. Baby boomers moving into their prime earning years

 

4. The immense popularity of superhero movies

 

To argue that comics will earn the same returns going forward as they have in the past, you have to believe that there will be additional sources of demand as important as those listed above. It is difficult for me, at any rate, to imagine what those might be.

 

With respect to points 3. and 4. above, baby boomers will soon be net sellers rather than buyers. Although superhero movies seem to go from strength to strength, eventually the public will tire of them -- as they have of other genres.

 

For comics to be a poor investment going forward, it's not necessary that interest in them collapses; it's only necessary that it fails to increase much from here. Apple at $700 per share turned out to be a lousy investment, but not because demand for iPhones collapsed.

 

An excellent summary.

 

I understand the overall frustration.... for the middle class, at least right now, there really are no really viable worthwhile "investments" to be had. CDs etc. pay so little interest as to be useless. Real estate is still highly volatile and could go either way. Stocks rise purely due to activities of the Fed, but even so, with the current economy there's no way I'm buying into a DOW at 17,000.

 

That pretty much leaves only speculation for most people, or sitting things out until the situation looks better. Comics as "short term speculation" may be as good (or bad) as any other such endeavor.

 

However, the problem with all "pop culture investments" over the long term, is that they are in fact "pop culture" investments. Nothing stays popular forever. How liquid are your Big Little Books now? Or your dime novels? Or your Robert Frost collection? (or any poetry collection for that matter). Sure... some key items in any area may move upward... but the potential buying base still gets smaller. How are those Bev Doolittle prints doing, or the more obvious Beanie Babies, or Disney collectibles, or Davy Crockett stuff, etc.

 

All pop culture stuff has a limited window of opportunity... sometimes that window is only a couple of years, sometimes it's 2 or 3 decades. But few areas retain popularity across more than a couple of generations.

 

Comics did not hit their stride as a "collectibles commodity" until the late 70s or early 80s, when several years of Overstreet guides and a few big sales finally brought them media attention. They're already into their second generation of interest, so banking on them for many more decades goes against history.

 

Short term, however... everything is pretty much speculation right now, so comics may well be better for the collector who avidly follows and studies them than speculating in something they have no background at all in.

Good points. Comic books really are one of the few hobbies that got a second generation of interest. I see Hollywood opened it for maybe even a third generation, but even I know the interest in these Hollywood superhero movies won`t last forever. What maybe 5 to 10 years at most?

[ComicConnoisseur]

From your examples you could make the point that either A.) Marvel keys are overvalued, B.) By the same standard certain ga keys are undervalued ( all star 3 & 8, more fun 73, All American 19), or C.) We are staring down the barrel of hyperinflation not seen since the Weimar Republic or perhaps D.) a bit of A, B & C all mixed together. Ill go with D. And yes, Amadeus, the 60 copies of X-Men #1 you hoarded back in 92' will still be worth $.75 a piece if gas shoots up to $100.00 a gallon.

 

 

I don't think I've EVER owned 60 copies of X-Men #1, but all my original copies are 9.8s. That means, if I pay the $20 to get them slabbed, they will be worth an average of $40. Take out eBay fees, and I'm looking at a sweet $15 profit for books I spent $1.35 each for.

 

And if I pay the $10 to get Jim Lee to SIGN them....I've just made about another $80.

 

THAT is how you play the game, my friends.

 

My point, going back to (A), is that there are circumstances...lots of them...that have made these books TERRIBLE investments over the last 10 years. Absolutely AWFUL. HIDEOUS.

 

The guy who bought that Green Lantern #76 in CGC 9.6 for $30,500...an "investment quality book" if there ever was one...has seen 75%+ of his investment evaporate into thin air...likely to never be seen again, even if he held the book for 100 years, adjusted for inflation.

 

And this was repeated all OVER the "investment quality" Silver and Bronze markets, and even affected the Gold market (though not nearly to that degree.)

 

The fact is, if you invested in "investment quality books" from 2004-2008, you've lost, big time, and you will probably never, ever recover from it.

 

Does anybody know what the mindset was back then for Green Lantern #76 in CGC 9.6 for $30,500?

It`s kind of mindboggling to hear about it.

[Quicksilver Signs]

This past February I picked up Marvel Preview #4, #7 and Hulk #271 mostly because I wanted them, but also because I wanted to get them before the trailer came out. These books had been hot for more than a year at this point and anyone with even a passing interest in comics knows the clear effect of the movies on pricing, but I sold my beat, low grade copies for $100 profit on a $150 investment three months later. This wasn't some amazing prognostication on my part. This was obvious. I'm not claiming that I'm some investment guru or anything. I'm actually saying that if this is so glaringly obvious to me, isn't it obvious to everyone?

 

I would never suggest those books as great ten year investments, but in the short term they were very low risk. Buy Dr. Strange. That was better advice two years ago but there is still plenty of profit to be made in his early appearances. The Inhumans. Even if there is no movie you won't lose money on FF #45. Silver Age DC keys. Shazam #28. Plenty of great options have been mentioned in this thread.

 

Let us, then, consider some other books:

 

Avengers #4. Surely...SURELY...much more of a key, blue chip book than FF #45, right?

 

There have been 7 sales recorded at GPA for Avengers #4 in CGC 9.6 in the past four years.

 

The recorded high was $69,500 in 2012. The other sales, in order from 2010, were $64,000, $62,501, $31,070 ( ), $23,900 ( :o ), $40,000 (phew, going back up), and last but not least...$19,120 ( )

 

Blue chip book. About as blue chip as it gets. Super Marvel Silver Age key. The last sale was a whopping 72% LESS than it's most recent high.

 

Does anyone think the people who paid in the $60's were making a good investment?

 

Ok, not enough samples, ok, could be problems with individual books...

 

Then let's look at X-Men #94.

 

Another SUPER blue chip Marvel, ever popular, this time from the Bronze Age.

 

Let's look at 9.4, a good solid "investment quality" grade.

 

In 2005, the high price record was set at $2990 for this book. The 90 day average for the book now, 9 years later, is $1534. The last year's average is $1488.

 

That means the person who paid the $2990 has LOST more than 50% of his value, in 9 years. He would have been far, far better parking the money in a CD.

 

Now, not to say that bargains couldn't be had, no. But since the beginning of 2005, there have been 66 sales greater than the current 90 day average and only 33 sales less than it. And the vast majority of those sales less than the current 90 day average occurred in the last three years.

 

What's worse...the lowest sale in that time period is $1195, only $339 less than the current average...and that sale occurred in December of 2012. That means, if someone bought at the absolute market low for the last 9 years, and they only had the chance to buy that ONE COPY at that price (all others being higher), they saw only a 28% return, annualized to about 19%, over the course of a year and a half.

 

One copy. 19% per year. $339. Not counting ANY fees.

 

And don't even get STARTED on the books like X-Men #116, 120, 107, and Daredevil #168, which have all fallen from dizzying, sickening heights.

 

 

Best advice to be had from this post is don't buy high grade slabbed books. You want to make money, buy raw and slab and sell. While there's still high grade raw books to be had.

[delekkerste]

The above is not to imply that there isn't money to be made dealing, flipping and exploiting the weaknesses of your fellow man

 

Only in America could someone on Wall Street say the above without a hint of irony.

 

Not to get , but the overwhelming majority of people who work in the finance industry, including myself, had/have nothing to do with synthetic CDOs, credit default swaps, high-frequency trading, insider trading or any of the other products/behaviors that had/have (deservedly) gotten bad press.

 

Irony-free and loving it.

[Sqeggs]

The above is not to imply that there isn't money to be made dealing, flipping and exploiting the weaknesses of your fellow man

 

Only in America could someone on Wall Street say the above without a hint of irony.

 

Not to get , but the overwhelming majority of people who work in the finance industry, including myself, had/have nothing to do with synthetic CDOs, credit default swaps, high-frequency trading, insider trading or any of the other products/behaviors that had/have (deservedly) gotten bad press.

 

Irony-free and loving it.

 

Think what your net worth would be today if you had!

[Heronext]

Best advice to be had from this post is don't buy high grade slabbed books.

 

There are no set rules like this IMO. You have to have a view on what to buy and what not to buy, across all ages, genres, and grades. Avengers 4 in high grade 5 years ago, maybe not a good buy. Other select SA keys in high grade 5 years ago? A great buy, in hindsight, looking at today's prices.

 

14 years into the pro grading era, I think the population of slabbed books has reached a threshold where we can now view it as a known pool. I think the dip in prices in some high grade books, like Avengers 4, GL 76 and Bronze keys especially has largely stabilized.

 

I think the high prices were due to excitement over perceived rarity of high grade books, and market participants getting used to what essentially were new grades created by CGC at the high end of the scale.

[Sqeggs]

I'm still always amazed at the fact people confuse "investing" with "gambling". But, then again, I'm always amazed at people who respond to Nigerian emails, but it happens.

 

While my investment portfolio contains exactly $0 in comics despite buying and selling them on a daily basis, I don't think it's fair to lump all of comic buying into gambling or speculating.

 

Blue chip comics have decades worth of price data. That's more than a lot of stocks. Buying 100 copies of the new Image #1 is speculating, buying a 4.0 copy of AF 15 with decades worth of incremental increases in value shouldn't be in the same boat.

 

Why not? Sure AF 15 has had a great run. I've bought them and sold them and always made money off them. But ... anyone buying one (or more) today with the expectation that his return over the next 20 years will beat the stock market is making a very risky investment.

 

The factors that have driven up AF 15 prices are unlikely to be repeated. Once again, it won't take a collapse in interest in Spider-Man (or comics generally) to make AF 15 a poor investment.

[delekkerste]

To argue that comics will earn the same returns going forward as they have in the past, you have to believe that there will be additional sources of demand as important as those listed above. It is difficult for me, at any rate, to imagine what those might be.

 

Exactly. All the stuff that people are bullish about is already in the price. Where's the edge? What do you know that all the other guys bullish on AF 15 don't already know?

 

 

With respect to points 3. and 4. above, baby boomers will soon be net sellers rather than buyers. Although superhero movies seem to go from strength to strength, eventually the public will tire of them -- as they have of other genres.

 

Comics did not hit their stride as a "collectibles commodity" until the late 70s or early 80s, when several years of Overstreet guides and a few big sales finally brought them media attention. They're already into their second generation of interest, so banking on them for many more decades goes against history.

 

People think that comics have gone up for 75 years (re: forever) when, as you said, this is really only a hobby that has achieved any kind of critical mass and worth since the '70s. And, let's face it, it's been a brand new ballgame since the arrival of CGC and Internet-based distribution. People have only known a market that goes up, and it's human nature to linearly extrapolate the past indefinitely into the future. Unfortunately, the history of pop culture trends and the underlying changes in demographics and media/technology don't really support the case for linear extrapolation.

 

 

I understand the overall frustration.... for the middle class, at least right now, there really are no really viable worthwhile "investments" to be had. CDs etc. pay so little interest as to be useless. Real estate is still highly volatile and could go either way. Stocks rise purely due to activities of the Fed, but even so, with the current economy there's no way I'm buying into a DOW at 17,000.

 

I love how people have thought that stocks are too high to buy, but comics are not. I also love how people seem to think that stocks are manipulated by the Fed, but comics are not! Every asset price in the world is where it is now in large part due to interest rate manipulation. Comics may not be a direct beneficiary of these policies, but, as we've seen even in this thread, people are buying comics because people think the alternative is 0.15% in the bank. As such, a good amount of the risk at Dow 17,000 is also in comics at current prices because it's interest-rate related.

 

 

All pop culture stuff has a limited window of opportunity... sometimes that window is only a couple of years, sometimes it's 2 or 3 decades. But few areas retain popularity across more than a couple of generations.

 

Every generation thinks their stuff is the coolest and will always be popular. It should be obvious to anyone who takes even a cursory look at the Millennials that they have much different values, interests and priorities than Gen X. Not to mention the math: almost every comic out there is going to change hands at least once in the next 30-40 years. Do you think there are enough Millennials and Millennial buying power to do so at ever-increasing prices (I shouldn't even say that, given that so much of the market is already on the wrong side of peak pricing)? Or will prices have to fall (in real, i.e., inflation-adjusted, terms) to clear the market?

 

Seems pretty obvious to me the farther out you go. Not that this has any bearing on the books people are flipping short-term, or even "investing" for a few years out, but I do think that anyone buying comics now as a 401(k) substitute for 30 years from now is going to be in for a rude shock.

[Waylander]

In this investing lark - I cannot lose...

 

 

Why you ask...

 

 

 

 

I buy what I want to read

[Heronext]

Just to add one point to the discussion, I think "speculation" is one of the most overused words on these boards, and mostly, unfairly associated with wrong or immoral behavior, or confused with get-rich-quick thinking.

[newshane]

I suggest the stock market, precious metals, and real estate.

[comixcroz]

Ah, one of the hearty perennials around here.

 

The main points have already been made, with the bottom line being that anyone who is spending serious money on comics today with the expectation of returns over the next 20 years that will be better than he would receive by buying a stock index fund is almost certain to be disappointed.

 

One point not made this time around, although I've made it in similar threads in the past: We have been in a long bull market for comics. The factors driving the market include:

 

1. The increase in selling venues that have made comics a national market (to some extent even an international one), thereby greatly increasing both demand and liquidity: eBay, HA, CC, Clink

 

2. CGC, which has greatly increased the liquidity of high dollar books

 

3. Baby boomers moving into their prime earning years

 

4. The immense popularity of superhero movies

 

To argue that comics will earn the same returns going forward as they have in the past, you have to believe that there will be additional sources of demand as important as those listed above. It is difficult for me, at any rate, to imagine what those might be.

 

With respect to points 3. and 4. above, baby boomers will soon be net sellers rather than buyers. Although superhero movies seem to go from strength to strength, eventually the public will tire of them -- as they have of other genres.

 

For comics to be a poor investment going forward, it's not necessary that interest in them collapses; it's only necessary that it fails to increase much from here. Apple at $700 per share turned out to be a lousy investment, but not because demand for iPhones collapsed.

 

An excellent summary.

 

I understand the overall frustration.... for the middle class, at least right now, there really are no really viable worthwhile "investments" to be had. CDs etc. pay so little interest as to be useless. Real estate is still highly volatile and could go either way. Stocks rise purely due to activities of the Fed, but even so, with the current economy there's no way I'm buying into a DOW at 17,000.

 

That pretty much leaves only speculation for most people, or sitting things out until the situation looks better. Comics as "short term speculation" may be as good (or bad) as any other such endeavor.

 

However, the problem with all "pop culture investments" over the long term, is that they are in fact "pop culture" investments. Nothing stays popular forever. How liquid are your Big Little Books now? Or your dime novels? Or your Robert Frost collection? (or any poetry collection for that matter). Sure... some key items in any area may move upward... but the potential buying base still gets smaller. How are those Bev Doolittle prints doing, or the more obvious Beanie Babies, or Disney collectibles, or Davy Crockett stuff, etc.

 

All pop culture stuff has a limited window of opportunity... sometimes that window is only a couple of years, sometimes it's 2 or 3 decades. But few areas retain popularity across more than a couple of generations.

 

Comics did not hit their stride as a "collectibles commodity" until the late 70s or early 80s, when several years of Overstreet guides and a few big sales finally brought them media attention. They're already into their second generation of interest, so banking on them for many more decades goes against history.

 

Short term, however... everything is pretty much speculation right now, so comics may well be better for the collector who avidly follows and studies them than speculating in something they have no background at all in.

Good points. Comic books really are one of the few hobbies that got a second generation of interest. I see Hollywood opened it for maybe even a third generation, but even I know the interest in these Hollywood superhero movies won`t last forever. What maybe 5 to 10 years at most?

 

A comic book is merely a "medium" for artistic expression and story telling. That makes it vastly different than a one-off collectible like Beanie Babies, etc. I think this does allow for long term interest because as a medium, it's adaptable to whatever the pop culture trend is at the moment. The collecting of certain titles or even genres may go out of favor, but I don't think the medium of comic books, or story telling with illustrations/pictures is ever going to completely fall out of favor. I think trends in price will continue to go up and down based on what is currently "hot" in today's market and whether or not those interests intersect with rare items from the past. It is only certain comics from certain eras and genres that we are talking about as being investment worthy and hot. 30 years from now I'm sure there will be comic books that will have turned out to be amazing investments with huge returns, but your guess is as good as mine as to what it will turn out to be.

[dupont2005]

I don't see the movies generating interest in comics.

 

They're generating interest in movies.

[dupont2005]

but I don't think the medium of comic books, or story telling with illustrations/pictures is ever going to completely fall out of favor.

No, but paying big bucks for variant covers probably will.