Cerebus 1 a more valuable key than Hulk 181? Really Overstreet? Poll on Page 87 3 3

[HighStakesComics]

I hope you have some good luck at the con, Sir, and you are correct. Cerebus 1 would decimate 181 in 9.4, but in 9.2 it's slightly more grey. If there is a 9.2 or 9.4 for sale right now that would be one more than I am aware of and that, my friend, is wherein lies the intrigue. Until one comes to market this thread will most likely continue to be a sounding board. If I were a Vegas handicapper Id set the over/under on a 9.2 OWW copy at $2650, about the same percentage over the 90 DMA of 181 that OPG has factored into the guide value. Ill keep my eyes open and if one pops up anywhere I will put the thread on high alert.

I do think there is a chance Jaydog has the last laugh, but most likely there are enough credible sources here to conclude the Cerebus #1 will most likely prevail in 9.2.

There have been some lulls but for the most part a very spirited debate on both sides.

 

[Gatsby77]

You assert that Cerebus #1 is an $8-10k book in 9.4, which is probably making some peoples' heads spin, since they would counter with a downward trend visible in GPA showing the book lost 25% of its value from 2004 to 2009, which would extrapolate to a value of about $5800 today.

 

Wait..what?

 

The assertion is that Cerebus # 1 is an $8-$10k book in 9.4.

 

GPA (which tracks a vast minority of sales of a vast minority of extant books) shows a copy of Cerebus # 1 in 9.4 already sold for $9k in March of this year.

 

If you're going to extrapolate, it needs to be from that number, advanced six months to today.

[chrisco37]

I'd take the over all day long on that.

[Prince Namor]

Without a doubt.

[wardevil0]

You assert that Cerebus #1 is an $8-10k book in 9.4, which is probably making some peoples' heads spin, since they would counter with a downward trend visible in GPA showing the book lost 25% of its value from 2004 to 2009, which would extrapolate to a value of about $5800 today.

 

Wait..what?

 

The assertion is that Cerebus # 1 is an $8-$10k book in 9.4.

 

GPA (which tracks a vast minority of sales of a vast minority of extant books) shows a copy of Cerebus # 1 in 9.4 already sold for $9k in March of this year.

 

If you're going to extrapolate, it needs to be from that number, advanced six months to today.

 

Sorry, I wasn't clear on my methodology. Because there is one and only one recorded sale of a Universal 9.4, I used the data from the Signature Series 9.4, which has three sales recorded, and three points is enough to make a line (shoddy, and still not enough points to be comfortable with, but 3 is more than 1).

[HighStakesComics]

I'd take the over all day long on that.

 

FWIW, my thoughts are if it was an existing copy you are correct. If it were a new copy, freshly graded and added to the census it might fall a bit short, unless it showed very well in grade. This is the key BA indie, but most of the value in high grade is tied to its scarcity.

[AlexanderM]

You assert that Cerebus #1 is an $8-10k book in 9.4, which is probably making some peoples' heads spin, since they would counter with a downward trend visible in GPA showing the book lost 25% of its value from 2004 to 2009, which would extrapolate to a value of about $5800 today.

 

Wait..what?

 

The assertion is that Cerebus # 1 is an $8-$10k book in 9.4.

 

GPA (which tracks a vast minority of sales of a vast minority of extant books) shows a copy of Cerebus # 1 in 9.4 already sold for $9k in March of this year.

 

If you're going to extrapolate, it needs to be from that number, advanced six months to today.

 

Actually Garlanda knows what he is talking about.

 

You cannot extrapolate from a single number.

[wardevil0]

It's all about acceptable margins for error to me. With no other information, it wouldn't be wrong, per se, to assume the single point entry carries forward indefinitely until another point arrives. That's the supporting evidence behind saying it's still an $8-10k book, after all, which is just a field of uncertainty around its last price point.

 

I'm assuredly no statistician, but I've had to analyze data from some pretty spurious and disreputable sources to get some kind of forecast. We need assessments, and in the lack of clean, quality data we'll pound what we have with hammers until its something useable.

[Jaydogrules]

Agreed, garlanda's methodology is actually sound. Problem is, using sound methodology to extrapolate a current value for a cerebus 1 9.2 does not produce a figure the pro cerebus folks can live with.

 

So here's another monkey wrench for you...

 

Any existing cerebus 9.2 that comes to market will be an SS file copy.

 

Those have NEVER sold for more than 2500, even before the 15% swoon in its prices over the last 10 years in its top grade.

 

The last SS hulk 181 9.2 that sold just last march was for $3700.

 

Does anybody seriously think that any of those 9.2 cerebus 1 copies would come anywhere near sniffing that amount?

 

All existing public sales data says "No".

 

-J.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I keep repeating the same. And it is still true.

 

Hulk IS the most valuable book my most standards (total market value, the value in most grades).

 

However, by one specific standard it might be said that Cerebus is more valuable.

 

Therefore, if the question is "which is the most valuable BA book of the two", it by most standards would be H181. However, if the question is "which book would be most valuable (in terms of price) as a single copy in the particular grade of 9.2", then the answer may be Cerebus.

 

 

 

There... that is the bottom line.

 

 

 

However, this thread is no longer about who is right. It resembles more a school yard where RMA has more people with a similar agenda or less miffed with him than with Jay. So RMA just has a few more people padding him on the back making him feel he is so incredibly logical.

 

It resembles that to you, because that's how you see things.

 

That isn't what is, however.

 

I don't need anyone "padding" (OR patting) me on the back, and you have incorrectly analyzed the situation.

 

What you say isn't reasonable. The collectibles market is not the stock market. They don't operate the same way. Therefore, to say that "Hulk #181 is more valuable", as if people even consider the "total amount of Hulk #181s that exist across all grades", is incorrect.

 

It is not "one specific standard" or "very narrowly defined", as you have attempted to put it.

 

It is standard practice within the collectibles market.

 

I'm genuinely sorry you don't see things that way, but that's how the collectibles market is. You can fight it, but it is what it is. I don't determine...I only observe and report.

 

I, for one, still think that Jay in most instances show more objectivity and logic than RMA. For example, Jay mostly relies on hard and publicly available data for his reasoning, while RMA relies on debating tricks (see primary school debate team), and being spurred on by a few other people (both of which are very subjective bases of reasoning).

 

You are bordering on trolling by suggesting that my posting..in any way..is "spurred on" by others. I have challenged every single one of the people "on my side" in other arguments, and have no problem doing so. It is offensive to me that you would suggest that I post what I post because of some "mob mentality." Highly offensive. My arguments stand, or do not stand, on their own. If others agree, great. If they don't, great. I do not make my arguments to cater to the need to be popular with ANYONE, and never have.

 

I would suggest you keep those "accusations" to yourself.

 

You are now merely parroting what Jay has said: "hard and publicly available data." Every other person in this thread has relied on that same hard, publicly available data, ad nauseum.

 

Jay may report "hard and publicly available data", but the conclusions he draws are not reasonable.

 

Seriously, Alexander, you're beginning to cross the line into incivility with your personal commentary and analyses. If you wish to continue to discuss THE MERITS OF THE SUBJECT, feel free...but if you are going to, instead, discuss the people involved in the debate, then enough's enough.

 

Stop discussing the people.

So, while I think we already have a substantive bottom line... the match between objective reasoning on one side and back-slapping on the other will probably continue undeterred

 

Your conclusion is the opposite of what has actually happened. There's simply no finer way to put it.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Finally, I have nothing against RMA. In fact I respect the guy.

 

 

If you respect me, stop bringing up my name to make your "points." This discussion has nothing whatsoever to do with me. It is about OPG, Hulk #181, and Cerebus #1.

 

Enough talking about ME.

 

Thank you.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Lying about the VALUE of comics in some stupid forum thread isn't worth their time.

 

Presuming that other people are casually and consistently dishonest is yet another hallmark of the debate from emotion.

[RockMyAmadeus]

If we don't teach our children how to reason, we're going to continue to see more and greater instances in society of threads like this. Irrational responses, debating the people, rather than the topic, erroneous conclusions based on faulty premises, and a total unwillingness to think logically, objectively, basing conclusions on empirical evidence, rather than personal feelings.

 

Only, they're going to have real world ramifications.

 

And they've been happening for years. Just watch an average episode of Judge Judy to see it in action:

 

"Why did you take that woman's money, and then not perform the service for which you were contracted?"

 

"Because she PISSED ME OFF!!!"

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

I can't speak for Dale or Donut, but if you went up to them and said, "Hey, I respect you're opinion and all, but I just don't value it as much as the comparatively minuscule amount of industry data reported on GPA, because I'm not completely sure the possibility of your 'response bias' is getting in the way of what you're telling me."

 

Pretty sure they might view that as you think they're lying.

 

I don't think so. I give them the benefit of the doubt. If they know anything about data quality and data collection.. then they surely wouldn't.

 

It's not "lying" because it's not intended to deceive, just may not turn out to be correct once the theory is put into practice. The problem with this debate is that we can see copies of Hulk 181 9.2/9.4 sell every few weeks or so and have not seen Cerebus 1 9.2/9.4 sell often at all. Every dealer may have 100% intention of selling Cerebus 1 9.4 for $3500+, but until they actually have one to sell at that price we don't know for sure.

A Cerebus #1 9.4 sold for $9,000 in March of this year.

[HighStakesComics]

Big game tonight, RMA!

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

-That there has been a 15% decline in value for a cerebus 1 in its top grade (9.4) over the last ten years;

 

This is STILL false. If you keep repeating it, I'll keep challenging it.

 

How long will you keep repeating false information as if it were true, and then have people saying your posts are "more objective"...?

[RockMyAmadeus]

Big game tonight, RMA!

 

What game? Football?

 

 

Talk to me during the playoffs.

[RockMyAmadeus]

That is why their statements on what they "would" price a cerebus 1 at a 9.2 if they got one in carries little weight, as it is nothing but speculation and conjecture

 

This is hyperbole. It is not only NOT "nothing", the opinions of professionals in their fields is very much "something."

 

It's like asking a doctor to testify in court, and say "although the results weren't entirely conclusive, I believe the patient died of an acute myocardial infaction", and you spout off "that's nothing but speculation and conjecture!!!"

 

But, what you say is "more objective."

 

Mystifying, is what this thread is...

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

That's an 8-10k book in 9.4, sir. Probably 12-15k in 9.6.

 

You're still not keyed into the difference in extremely rare books.

 

The rarer the book, the more exponential the price increases with each grade level.

 

$12-15K?

 

More like $25-$30k.

[RockMyAmadeus]

You folks really are too much.