Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[bababooey]

However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point.

 

 

-J.

 

Noted, quoted & emoted.

 

[Jaydogrules]

It sure would be nice (not to mention helpful) if someone other than myself or rfoii could cite numbers, statistics, sales and/and percentages, instead of just anecdotes, supposition and assumptions with meaningless emojis in support of their position.

 

Just sayin'.

 

-J.

[jimjum12]

Census numbers as evidence of copies extant is woefully inadequate. Listen to the stories that the numbers tell you, not what you would like for them to tell you. You have some rare books....this just isn't one of them. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[G.A.tor]

A quick look at the census numbers are revealing, and, IMO, do not point to thousands upon thousands of copies likely being out there. In fact, in most years, even with the prices of this book publicly skyrocketing, the additions to the census have ranged from modest to downright puny (blue labels only).

 

Going back to 2005...

 

2005: 79-ish copies

 

2006: 67 copies

 

2007: 68 copies

 

2008: 97 copies

 

2009: 89 copies

 

2010: 70 copies

 

2011 (the year of the $1.1 Million dollar sale): 122 copies

 

2012: 146 copies

 

2013: 237 copies

 

2014: 108 copies

 

2015: 17 copies (so far, on pace for 70)

 

As you can see, there have only been four years where there have been more than 100 submissions, and that was only after the big sale that happened in 2011, with the subs peaking in 2013. Notice that less than half the amount of submissions were received the following year (even 2014), even though the book continued to perform well. And if the current pace for subs this year continues, it will be the least amount recorded since 2010 and back to the 2006-2007 levels. It seems that people want to have their cake and eat it too when it comes to this book. On the one hand, its common knowledge that a big sale and a skyrocketing book will bring out tons of new books to the census. Yet when it comes to this book, even though a copy sold for well over seven figures four years ago and it continues to break records in sales prices for all grades, people are positing that really no one is submitting it or people are submitting it at a meager rate, which would be in direct opposition to every other book that experienced a price spike, let alone sustained growth over a multi-year period.

 

That simply makes no sense.

 

This kind of drop off does not point to a statistical likelihood of their being "thousands upon thousands" of remaining copies in the wild. And with the average grade of all copies being submitted over the last 15 years being just 3.67, it is also highly unlikely that any significant number of the few remaining raw copies out there are even mid-grade, let alone high grade.

 

These are facts. This is what we know. Fifteen+ years, and 2000+ submissions are more than enough to make a statistical extrapolation. Sure we can account for the statements of high volume dealers like Gator, but we should not also discount the statements and experiences of other dealers like SOT and Roulette. And even a layman can look at what actually comes up for sale and peruse the offerings at cons and see for themselves that, no, there just aren't that many raw copies being offered out there anymore.

 

Are there some super rich comic book collectors out there with a box of 50 copies? Gator says he knows a few so I take him at this word. Are there hundreds of people out there like that? No way. Are there hundreds of people possibly out there with two or three raw copies? And are other collectors who post on these boards likely to know a few people out there like that? Sure, why not. But at most, that might give us 2-3000 raw copies left out there. But certainly not thousands upon thousands.

 

Speaking even from my own personal experience, I know a multitude of collectors, and I am the only one of my group that owns even a single copy of AF 15 in any grade, and I got hand shakes and congratulations when I unveiled it for the first time. It was kind of a big deal. And I would wager that my situation is probably closer to the norm among the collecting masses than any of the other stories we've been hearing on here. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

 

 

obviously the 2 folks I know that have "hoards" of raw copies are highly likely the exception...that much I think is reasonable...a statistical anomaly if you will...I can grant that no problem

 

J, you are the only one in your area that has an af15....I know of 6 serious spiderman collectors in my little town...all 6 have af15's, only one of them is slabbed...other 5 have raw copies, all bought some time ago... that is one store, in one little town, not really representative, I would think, of a collecting mecca (like Ny or Los Angeles, etc)

 

what I guess the minimalist fail to comprehend or acknowledge (not sure) is that thousands and thousands and THOUSANDS of copies were sold in the 60s-90's... that is the "pre" cgc collecting era...

 

all of the "older" timers acknowledge the high likelihood of thousands out there... seems only the "younger" folk can't acknowledge that.... and to a degree, I guess I can see how living and collecting in a cgc era, and I suspect large portions of comic interactions are here on the cgc board, would skew one's opinion...

 

but take it from those of us that have been around the block buying and selling for 20-40+ years... in every case (contributors to this thread), we have all concluded there are thousands and thousands of copies out there... how many, no one will ever know...but to think that there are only hundreds out there not slabbed, that simply cannot be...

 

 

[G.A.tor]

It sure would be nice (not to mention helpful) if someone other than myself or rfoii could cite numbers, statistics, sales and/and percentages, instead of just anecdotes, supposition and assumptions with meaningless emojis in support of their position.

 

Just sayin'.

 

-J.

there in lies the issue... these statistics were not kept in the 60-90's... experience was all you had to go on....

 

it is nice to have a census, but until you have gone to hundreds of cons, both as a dealer and as a consumer, it is hard to see the "big" picture that a cgc census doesn't reveal...until you have talked with hundreds of dealers, and seen all the copies in all the diff cities and heard of all the accumulations, etc, you are only quoting, statistically, a small piece of the pie...

[Jaydogrules]

A quick look at the census numbers are revealing, and, IMO, do not point to thousands upon thousands of copies likely being out there. In fact, in most years, even with the prices of this book publicly skyrocketing, the additions to the census have ranged from modest to downright puny (blue labels only).

 

Going back to 2005...

 

2005: 79-ish copies

 

2006: 67 copies

 

2007: 68 copies

 

2008: 97 copies

 

2009: 89 copies

 

2010: 70 copies

 

2011 (the year of the $1.1 Million dollar sale): 122 copies

 

2012: 146 copies

 

2013: 237 copies

 

2014: 108 copies

 

2015: 17 copies (so far, on pace for 70)

 

As you can see, there have only been four years where there have been more than 100 submissions, and that was only after the big sale that happened in 2011, with the subs peaking in 2013. Notice that less than half the amount of submissions were received the following year (even 2014), even though the book continued to perform well. And if the current pace for subs this year continues, it will be the least amount recorded since 2010 and back to the 2006-2007 levels. It seems that people want to have their cake and eat it too when it comes to this book. On the one hand, its common knowledge that a big sale and a skyrocketing book will bring out tons of new books to the census. Yet when it comes to this book, even though a copy sold for well over seven figures four years ago and it continues to break records in sales prices for all grades, people are positing that really no one is submitting it or people are submitting it at a meager rate, which would be in direct opposition to every other book that experienced a price spike, let alone sustained growth over a multi-year period.

 

That simply makes no sense.

 

This kind of drop off does not point to a statistical likelihood of their being "thousands upon thousands" of remaining copies in the wild. And with the average grade of all copies being submitted over the last 15 years being just 3.67, it is also highly unlikely that any significant number of the few remaining raw copies out there are even mid-grade, let alone high grade.

 

These are facts. This is what we know. Fifteen+ years, and 2000+ submissions are more than enough to make a statistical extrapolation. Sure we can account for the statements of high volume dealers like Gator, but we should not also discount the statements and experiences of other dealers like SOT and Roulette. And even a layman can look at what actually comes up for sale and peruse the offerings at cons and see for themselves that, no, there just aren't that many raw copies being offered out there anymore.

 

Are there some super rich comic book collectors out there with a box of 50 copies? Gator says he knows a few so I take him at this word. Are there hundreds of people out there like that? No way. Are there hundreds of people possibly out there with two or three raw copies? And are other collectors who post on these boards likely to know a few people out there like that? Sure, why not. But at most, that might give us 2-3000 raw copies left out there. But certainly not thousands upon thousands.

 

Speaking even from my own personal experience, I know a multitude of collectors, and I am the only one of my group that owns even a single copy of AF 15 in any grade, and I got hand shakes and congratulations when I unveiled it for the first time. It was kind of a big deal. And I would wager that my situation is probably closer to the norm among the collecting masses than any of the other stories we've been hearing on here. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

 

 

obviously the 2 folks I know that have "hoards" of raw copies are highly likely the exception...that much I think is reasonable...a statistical anomaly if you will...I can grant that no problem

 

J, you are the only one in your area that has an af15....I know of 6 serious spiderman collectors in my little town...all 6 have af15's, only one of them is slabbed...other 5 have raw copies, all bought some time ago... that is one store, in one little town, not really representative, I would think, of a collecting mecca (like Ny or Los Angeles, etc)

 

what I guess the minimalist fail to comprehend or acknowledge (not sure) is that thousands and thousands and THOUSANDS of copies were sold in the 60s-90's... that is the "pre" cgc collecting era...

 

all of the "older" timers acknowledge the high likelihood of thousands out there... seems only the "younger" folk can't acknowledge that.... and to a degree, I guess I can see how living and collecting in a cgc era, and I suspect large portions of comic interactions are here on the cgc board, would skew one's opinion...

 

but take it from those of us that have been around the block buying and selling for 20-40+ years... in every case (contributions to this thread), we have all concluded there are thousands and thousands of copies our there... how many, no one will ever know...but to think that there are only hundreds out there not slabbed, that simply cannot be...

 

 

I guess I'm just one of those people who only likes to believe what he can see, or what can be reasonably extrapolated from a data pool. I don't believe the census to be gospel but I do believe it to be enough of a data pool to make a reasonable extrapolation.

 

Based on that extrapolation I would put the number at 3000-5000 extant, with the vast majority of those being low grade and 33-50% of them also having some type of restoration. (thumbs u

 

-J.

[Gotham Kid]

I'd rather trust a guy who's been doing this for half his life than a census that only reflects a skewed view of reality.

[G.A.tor]

A quick look at the census numbers are revealing, and, IMO, do not point to thousands upon thousands of copies likely being out there. In fact, in most years, even with the prices of this book publicly skyrocketing, the additions to the census have ranged from modest to downright puny (blue labels only).

 

Going back to 2005...

 

2005: 79-ish copies

 

2006: 67 copies

 

2007: 68 copies

 

2008: 97 copies

 

2009: 89 copies

 

2010: 70 copies

 

2011 (the year of the $1.1 Million dollar sale): 122 copies

 

2012: 146 copies

 

2013: 237 copies

 

2014: 108 copies

 

2015: 17 copies (so far, on pace for 70)

 

As you can see, there have only been four years where there have been more than 100 submissions, and that was only after the big sale that happened in 2011, with the subs peaking in 2013. Notice that less than half the amount of submissions were received the following year (even 2014), even though the book continued to perform well. And if the current pace for subs this year continues, it will be the least amount recorded since 2010 and back to the 2006-2007 levels. It seems that people want to have their cake and eat it too when it comes to this book. On the one hand, its common knowledge that a big sale and a skyrocketing book will bring out tons of new books to the census. Yet when it comes to this book, even though a copy sold for well over seven figures four years ago and it continues to break records in sales prices for all grades, people are positing that really no one is submitting it or people are submitting it at a meager rate, which would be in direct opposition to every other book that experienced a price spike, let alone sustained growth over a multi-year period.

 

That simply makes no sense.

 

This kind of drop off does not point to a statistical likelihood of their being "thousands upon thousands" of remaining copies in the wild. And with the average grade of all copies being submitted over the last 15 years being just 3.67, it is also highly unlikely that any significant number of the few remaining raw copies out there are even mid-grade, let alone high grade.

 

These are facts. This is what we know. Fifteen+ years, and 2000+ submissions are more than enough to make a statistical extrapolation. Sure we can account for the statements of high volume dealers like Gator, but we should not also discount the statements and experiences of other dealers like SOT and Roulette. And even a layman can look at what actually comes up for sale and peruse the offerings at cons and see for themselves that, no, there just aren't that many raw copies being offered out there anymore.

 

Are there some super rich comic book collectors out there with a box of 50 copies? Gator says he knows a few so I take him at this word. Are there hundreds of people out there like that? No way. Are there hundreds of people possibly out there with two or three raw copies? And are other collectors who post on these boards likely to know a few people out there like that? Sure, why not. But at most, that might give us 2-3000 raw copies left out there. But certainly not thousands upon thousands.

 

Speaking even from my own personal experience, I know a multitude of collectors, and I am the only one of my group that owns even a single copy of AF 15 in any grade, and I got hand shakes and congratulations when I unveiled it for the first time. It was kind of a big deal. And I would wager that my situation is probably closer to the norm among the collecting masses than any of the other stories we've been hearing on here. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

 

 

obviously the 2 folks I know that have "hoards" of raw copies are highly likely the exception...that much I think is reasonable...a statistical anomaly if you will...I can grant that no problem

 

J, you are the only one in your area that has an af15....I know of 6 serious spiderman collectors in my little town...all 6 have af15's, only one of them is slabbed...other 5 have raw copies, all bought some time ago... that is one store, in one little town, not really representative, I would think, of a collecting mecca (like Ny or Los Angeles, etc)

 

what I guess the minimalist fail to comprehend or acknowledge (not sure) is that thousands and thousands and THOUSANDS of copies were sold in the 60s-90's... that is the "pre" cgc collecting era...

 

all of the "older" timers acknowledge the high likelihood of thousands out there... seems only the "younger" folk can't acknowledge that.... and to a degree, I guess I can see how living and collecting in a cgc era, and I suspect large portions of comic interactions are here on the cgc board, would skew one's opinion...

 

but take it from those of us that have been around the block buying and selling for 20-40+ years... in every case (contributions to this thread), we have all concluded there are thousands and thousands of copies our there... how many, no one will ever know...but to think that there are only hundreds out there not slabbed, that simply cannot be...

 

 

I guess I'm just one of those people who only likes to believe what he can see, or what can be reasonably extrapolated from a data pool. I don't believe the census to be gospel but I do believe it to be enough of a data pool to make a reasonable extrapolation.

 

Based on that extrapolation I would put the number at 3000-5000 extant, with the vast majority of those being low grade and 33-50% of them also having some type of restoration. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

what is reasonable about only including data from 15 years out of the 50 years the book has been in existence? And that data is restricted to folks that have chosen to pay money to have their comics graded in the past 15 years...and cgc has graded only 2 million comics out of the billions that have been printed, and the majority of those graded (more than 50%) are moderns, that are "created" collectibles and suited for and from grading...it is a flawed data pool from the get go to extrapolate from...

 

extrapolating data is fun, but it is not accurate when it comes to comic books, because today's collector is very different from yesterday's collector...and yesterday's collector own most of the af15's

[jaja-mon12]

I'd say an assumption of 100 copies per State would be on the conservative side.....that alone would equal 5000. I've also heard that raw collectors outnumber slab collectors by 10 to one.....that would suggest, proportionately, 15,000 copies. I'd say the true amount would be somewhere between those two figures. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Think of the page quality of the 100 copies in Alaska!

 

[bababooey]

It sure would be nice (not to mention helpful) if someone other than myself or rfoii could cite numbers, statistics, sales and/and percentages, instead of just anecdotes, supposition and assumptions with meaningless emojis in support of their position.

 

Just sayin'.

 

-J.

Waggle your cursor over the emoji to determine meaning.

 

No one knows the numbers from the total printed/distributed to the total in existence - it's all opinions. There is no "data" however your reliance on the census as a means to guesstimating the total population is just as irrelevant, especially when you compare a CGC-era variant's "slabbed percentage" to a 53 year old book, coveted & collected for 40 years prior to the existence of CGC

 

 

[Lazyboy]

A quick look at the census numbers are revealing, and, IMO, do not point to thousands upon thousands of copies likely being out there. In fact, in most years, even with the prices of this book publicly skyrocketing, the additions to the census have ranged from modest to downright puny (blue labels only).

 

Going back to 2005...

 

2005: 79-ish copies

 

2006: 67 copies

 

2007: 68 copies

 

2008: 97 copies

 

2009: 89 copies

 

2010: 70 copies

 

2011 (the year of the $1.1 Million dollar sale): 122 copies

 

2012: 146 copies

 

2013: 237 copies

 

2014: 108 copies

 

2015: 17 copies (so far, on pace for 70)

 

As you can see, there have only been four years where there have been more than 100 submissions, and that was only after the big sale that happened in 2011, with the subs peaking in 2013. Notice that less than half the amount of submissions were received the following year (even 2014), even though the book continued to perform well. And if the current pace for subs this year continues, it will be the least amount recorded since 2010 and back to the 2006-2007 levels. It seems that people want to have their cake and eat it too when it comes to this book. On the one hand, its common knowledge that a big sale and a skyrocketing book will bring out tons of new books to the census. Yet when it comes to this book, even though a copy sold for well over seven figures four years ago and it continues to break records in sales prices for all grades, people are positing that really no one is submitting it or people are submitting it at a meager rate, which would be in direct opposition to every other book that experienced a price spike, let alone sustained growth over a multi-year period.

 

That simply makes no sense.

 

This kind of drop off does not point to a statistical likelihood of their being "thousands upon thousands" of remaining copies in the wild. And with the average grade of all copies being submitted over the last 15 years being just 3.67, it is also highly unlikely that any significant number of the few remaining raw copies out there are even mid-grade, let alone high grade.

 

These are facts. This is what we know. Fifteen+ years, and 2000+ submissions are more than enough to make a statistical extrapolation. Sure we can account for the statements of high volume dealers like Gator, but we should not also discount the statements and experiences of other dealers like SOT and Roulette. And even a layman can look at what actually comes up for sale and peruse the offerings at cons and see for themselves that, no, there just aren't that many raw copies being offered out there anymore.

 

Are there some super rich comic book collectors out there with a box of 50 copies? Gator says he knows a few so I take him at this word. Are there hundreds of people out there like that? No way. Are there hundreds of people possibly out there with two or three raw copies? And are other collectors who post on these boards likely to know a few people out there like that? Sure, why not. But at most, that might give us 2-3000 raw copies left out there. But certainly not thousands upon thousands.

 

Speaking even from my own personal experience, I know a multitude of collectors, and I am the only one of my group that owns even a single copy of AF 15 in any grade, and I got hand shakes and congratulations when I unveiled it for the first time. It was kind of a big deal. And I would wager that my situation is probably closer to the norm among the collecting masses than any of the other stories we've been hearing on here. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

 

 

obviously the 2 folks I know that have "hoards" of raw copies are highly likely the exception...that much I think is reasonable...a statistical anomaly if you will...I can grant that no problem

 

J, you are the only one in your area that has an af15....I know of 6 serious spiderman collectors in my little town...all 6 have af15's, only one of them is slabbed...other 5 have raw copies, all bought some time ago... that is one store, in one little town, not really representative, I would think, of a collecting mecca (like Ny or Los Angeles, etc)

 

what I guess the minimalist fail to comprehend or acknowledge (not sure) is that thousands and thousands and THOUSANDS of copies were sold in the 60s-90's... that is the "pre" cgc collecting era...

 

all of the "older" timers acknowledge the high likelihood of thousands out there... seems only the "younger" folk can't acknowledge that.... and to a degree, I guess I can see how living and collecting in a cgc era, and I suspect large portions of comic interactions are here on the cgc board, would skew one's opinion...

 

but take it from those of us that have been around the block buying and selling for 20-40+ years... in every case (contributions to this thread), we have all concluded there are thousands and thousands of copies our there... how many, no one will ever know...but to think that there are only hundreds out there not slabbed, that simply cannot be...

 

 

I guess I'm just one of those people who only likes to believe what he can see, or what can be reasonably extrapolated from a data pool. I don't believe the census to be gospel but I do believe it to be enough of a data pool to make a reasonable extrapolation.

 

Based on that extrapolation I would put the number at 3000-5000 extant, with the vast majority of those being low grade and 33-50% of them also having some type of restoration. (thumbs u

 

-J.

Extrapolation based on what? The CGC census has no correlation to total copies. Again, believing attrition to be well over 90% is irrational.

[Topnotchman]

Comic stores between 1978 and 1988, it was common that they had Silver Age collections walking in the door once or twice a week. Out of those collections within a years time just say the mega 500 comic stores could of scored 1-3 copies of an AF 15. With a ratio of 75 collections in a year with just 3% containing an AF 15, that would be 2 copies per store. So that would make 500 stores with 2 copies each, or 1,000 copies a year, for a decade, 10,000 copies. You can also add in smaller comic shops, CBG mail order dealers, convention dealers. That gets you through the bulk years of when original owner Silver Collections were recycled into the back issue market. You than have the decade of the 1990's when Silver collections thinned out dramatically. Its not that AF 15 didn't trade, just much less frequent than the previous decade due to the lower volume of original owner Silver Collections coming to market. You also have the 2000 to current where some shops don't see but one or two Silver collections in a years time. So did Silver collections all of a sudden become scarce? No, they just are not for sale in the same ratio as they were from the late 70's through the 80's. So is AF 15 all of a sudden scarce. No, it just does not come up for sale at the same ratio as it did from the late 70's through the 80's. When collectors forked out $50-$300 for a low grade copy the 80's, they absolutely did not throw it away, its still in a bag and board, in box in there collection, not for sale.

[Sqeggs]

What we lack in some areas, we make up for in passion and debating skills on these boards, that's for sure!!

 

No need to get personal!

[Sqeggs]

I've never owned one either.

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Dang! That's the most surprising statement in this thread.

[BarryAllen]

I have seen a lot of discussion and support for the 3,000-10,000 copies still in the market.

 

Any reasoning as to why that is too low?

 

Is that enough supply (given the right conditions of release) to outpace demand and drive a price correction in market?

[Sqeggs]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

 

[bluechip]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

 

You reminded me that Marvel, like EC before it, sold back issues for a while in the 60s, which meant that fewer copies got remaindered or shredded.

 

[BarryAllen]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing. Or shouldn't the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away in the club (opposite is true by the way)? I don't know, but 15,000 and 90% of available issues seem like high numbers.

[G.A.tor]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

[BarryAllen]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

Edited March 9, 2015 by rfoiii