Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[Rip]

I'm willing to bet I've seen more of them raw than slabbed.

I find it very hard to believe there's a lot less than 10 thousand of them.

Edited March 9, 2015 by Rip

[Jaydogrules]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

+1

 

That's another good point.

 

It seems folks would rather place more weight on the unverifiable and un-quantified than what is readily apparent and documented before them.

 

To each his own I suppose.

 

-J.

[G.A.tor]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

I think you answered your own question

 

We've gotten a few old time collectors on here but by and large most older time collectors don't even know what cgc is

[Rip]

+1

Most long time huge collectors I know have a very small percentage of books slabbed.

 

I think I own maybe 30-35 out of close to 10 thousand books.

And none of my Golden Age stuff is slabbed.

Edited March 10, 2015 by Rip

[NewWorldOrder]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate"

 

Of course your personal observations will aid you in your estimates. That is indisputable.

 

I would, however, ask that you also factor in the (great) likelihood that many of the raw copies you have observed in your career are now living in slabs. (thumbs u

 

I have never stated that I think the only existing copies are the slabbed ones or that there are only a few hundred left out in the raw. I am on the record believing there are likely a few thousand still left. Maybe as many as 5000 (a large percentage with restoration).

 

However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point.

 

 

-J.

 

I was only accounting for the ones I know are still in a raw state (hundreds I know of)....none of them have been slabbed to date (again, most I am certain of)...

 

as mentioned, metro has probably sold upteen hundreds (or maybe, dare I say, thousands) of raw af15's over the years, and hundreds that I have seen sell since the age of slabbage...some are probably slabbed, but the majority can't be, since the census wouldn't support that...

 

now, take into account every other dealer or person or store that has sold an af15 from 1960s-1999....that is thousands and thousands and thousands of them...again, even if every census copy came from these, that still leaves thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies...

 

then, take into account all the raw copies that we "know" are out there...and the numbers start to get staggering...

 

So what is the number you are calling...?

 

Total number of unslabbed comics in market?

I believe I voted for 10K as an approx. number of copies...

 

20K is possible....8 K is possible...who knows...

 

my point was in response to someone (don't recall who) saying there were less than 1000 (as in only hundreds)...that to me, is unreasonable and illogical...

 

could the number be 5000...I guess... but there are thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies out there, that much I am confident of

 

 

That was me, and I am quite confident that is not the case.

 

Thousands and thousands Rick? Sorry I will take that bet all the way and give higher odds to win the bet so it is fair.

 

While I agree the CGC census of course doesn't represent the true number of copies out there, and of course the CGC census could double/triple over night if a lot of these collectors submitted their copies. However I just don't have the belief that there are thousands upon thousands of this book left raw. A couple thousand at best 3-4k.

 

FYI The last AF 15 CGC 3.0 just sold at $12k....

Edited March 10, 2015 by SPECTRE_nWo

[Chicago Boy]

12 K for 3.0 ??!!!! Amazing what this book continues to do in 3.0 and below in short periods of time.

[BarryAllen]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

I think you answered your own question

 

We've gotten a few old time collectors on here but by and large most older time collectors don't even know what cgc is

 

Still though, none of the data points provided matter? None?

 

If 90% of the copies are raw, then we only have people on here that own stabbed copies of AF 15 - but mostly only see raw copies in the wild.

 

That doesn't make any sense, at least one data point would have to be representative of the whole. They can't all be wrong.

 

Not arguing with you personally, but it doesn't add up.

Edited March 10, 2015 by rfoiii

[Jeffro.]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

+1

 

That's another good point.

 

It seems folks would rather place more weight on the unverifiable and un-quantified than what is readily apparent and documented before them.

 

To each his own I suppose.

 

-J.

 

Probably because that "readily apparent and documented data" has issues of its own. However, even if assume that number is 100% fact, it still only tells you how many slabbed copies are in existence.

I understand wanting to be able to quantify something based on hard data but the numbers on the CGC census can be flawed data.

[jimjum12]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

+1

 

That's another good point.

 

It seems folks would rather place more weight on the unverifiable and un-quantified than what is readily apparent and documented before them.

 

To each his own I suppose.

 

-J.

 

Probably because that "readily apparent and documented data" has issues of its own. However, even if assume that number is 100% fact, it still only tells you how many slabbed copies are in existence.

I understand wanting to be able to quantify something based on hard data but the numbers on the CGC census can be flawed data.

 

ooooo........ I have an idea....let's play scrabble with just one block GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...... not everyone posts their books on the internet....

[BarryAllen]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

+1

 

That's another good point.

 

It seems folks would rather place more weight on the unverifiable and un-quantified than what is readily apparent and documented before them.

 

To each his own I suppose.

 

-J.

 

Probably because that "readily apparent and documented data" has issues of its own. However, even if assume that number is 100% fact, it still only tells you how many slabbed copies are in existence.

I understand wanting to be able to quantify something based on hard data but the numbers on the CGC census can be flawed data.

 

This point was about the make-up of the AF 15 club here on the boards, not the census. Raw copies are the minority's even though the affirmation on the table is that raw books make up the vast majority of books in market. Why wouldn't the club reflect this at least in part?

[BarryAllen]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

+1

 

That's another good point.

 

It seems folks would rather place more weight on the unverifiable and un-quantified than what is readily apparent and documented before them.

 

To each his own I suppose.

 

-J.

 

Probably because that "readily apparent and documented data" has issues of its own. However, even if assume that number is 100% fact, it still only tells you how many slabbed copies are in existence.

I understand wanting to be able to quantify something based on hard data but the numbers on the CGC census can be flawed data.

 

ooooo........ I have an idea....let's play scrabble with just one block GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...... not everyone posts their books on the internet....

 

Sure, but now you are saying that people who own stabbed copies are much more predisposed to do so? Why would you think that?

 

At some point constantly refuting any and all data is becoming excessive.

 

This is a club, a selection of collectors and the vast majority of books in the club are slabbed. If raw books were the vast majority, the numbers should at least be close even if people with slabs are predisposed to sharing in the internet.

 

A sample of data representing be population has to be relevant at somepoint.

[ttfitz]

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

But that seems to be the case with most of the clubs, doesn't it?

 

I looked at 3 of the "rebooted" ones, Daredevil #1, Hulk #1, and Iron Man #55. In all cases, the slabbed outnumbered the raw, from around 3:1 to 4:1. Do you think that most of those books that exist are slabbed?

[Dale Roberts]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate"

 

Of course your personal observations will aid you in your estimates. That is indisputable.

 

I would, however, ask that you also factor in the (great) likelihood that many of the raw copies you have observed in your career are now living in slabs. (thumbs u

 

I have never stated that I think the only existing copies are the slabbed ones or that there are only a few hundred left out in the raw. I am on the record believing there are likely a few thousand still left. Maybe as many as 5000 (a large percentage with restoration).

 

However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point.

 

 

-J.

 

 

Believe it or not, most of the copies that I know of are still sitting raw in collections. Most old timers are not getting books slabbed. They just aren't.

[Jeffro.]

 

This point was about the make-up of the AF 15 club here on the boards, not the census. Raw copies are the minority's even though the affirmation on the table is that raw books make up the vast majority of books in market. Why wouldn't the club reflect this at least in part?

 

I thought the title of this thread is "Total Existing Copies of AF #15"

[BarryAllen]

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

But that seems to be the case with most of the clubs, doesn't it?

 

I looked at 3 of the "rebooted" ones, Daredevil #1, Hulk #1, and Iron Man #55. In all cases, the slabbed outnumbered the raw, from around 3:1 to 4:1. Do you think that most of those books that exist are slabbed?

 

The argument depends on the assertion of how many copies are available in market total.

 

My point isn't that the majority are stabbed, but rather if the opposite is true than the numbers should be more balanced.

 

Hulk 1 is a good example - what is the assumption of total books in market versus the census? Same ratio as AF 15?

[BarryAllen]

 

This point was about the make-up of the AF 15 club here on the boards, not the census. Raw copies are the minority's even though the affirmation on the table is that raw books make up the vast majority of books in market. Why wouldn't the club reflect this at least in part?

 

I thought the title of this thread is "Total Existing Copies of AF #15"

 

It is... The discussion now is about how many raw books are not counted in the census. I am confused by what you mean.

[G.A.tor]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

+1

 

That's another good point.

 

It seems folks would rather place more weight on the unverifiable and un-quantified than what is readily apparent and documented before them.

 

To each his own I suppose.

 

-J.

 

Probably because that "readily apparent and documented data" has issues of its own. However, even if assume that number is 100% fact, it still only tells you how many slabbed copies are in existence.

I understand wanting to be able to quantify something based on hard data but the numbers on the CGC census can be flawed data.

 

ooooo........ I have an idea....let's play scrabble with just one block GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...... not everyone posts their books on the internet....

 

Sure, but now you are saying that people who own stabbed copies are much more predisposed to do so? Why would you think that?

 

At some point constantly refuting any and all data is becoming excessive.

 

This is a club, a selection of collectors and the vast majority of books in the club are slabbed. If raw books were the vast majority, the numbers should at least be close even if people with slabs are predisposed to sharing in the internet.

 

A sample of data representing be population has to be relevant at somepoint.

I suspect most folks that find these boards do so via the cgc website link. Since most raw collectors are either older (and not as tech savy ) or not interested in slabbing (or Internet socializing) means that they won't find this collector society and subsequently won't post their copies. and many folks choose not to post...many....

[jimjum12]

Scrabble/ one block = Board Members versus Comic Fandom at large...... do you know what a small fraction of collectors even come here ? .....and as you've said....to a Slab Site ? Why don't we bend over and grasp a grain of sand..... and proclaim "This is the World".....GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...we're all just trying to help you understand something..... I like you, otherwise I wouldn't waste my time.

[BarryAllen]

Scrabble/ one block = Board Members versus Comic Fandom at large...... do you know what a small fraction of collectors even come here ? .....and as you've said....to a Slab Site ? Why don't we bend over and grasp a grain of sand..... and proclaim "This is the World".....GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...we're all just trying to help you understand something..... I like you, otherwise I wouldn't waste my time.

 

 

At this point I am just arguing against the extreme (30k copies and up) and because I like the challenge.

 

We are close enough on the overall numbers (or at least some of us agree on 5k-10k or so) and that is good enough for me.

 

It has been a pleasure debating this (with most of you).

 

My brain hurts, I am going to go play Hyrule Warriors or build some Legos.

[jimjum12]

Go tear your 'ole lady up....... before you get too old like me GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

Edited March 10, 2015 by jimjum12