Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[bluechip]

Over the years I have encountered many people (more than I could count) who have saved some of the marvel silver age key books yet know little or nothing of slabbing. They just know thebook is "worth a lot" and they consider it part of their shadow portfolio.

 

They don't see a reason to sell if the value is going up. For a lot of guys I've met, it seems to be their justification for hanging onto it (tell the wife it's not that you like having it but because the price will never go down and will likely go up). And these encounters have been incidental, talking with people whom I would not have assumed are comics collectors, and then when talk turns to movies they mention they have an AF15 or Daredevil 1, etc. I am one guy in 300+ million and I hear these stories all the time. So unless there are only a handful of people in the world who experience this as often as I do, some of the lowball estimates of extant copies (and the references to "blue label" copies as a means of saying that they are effectively the only ones thst exist) comes off as misinformation or wishful thinking

 

That said, even if all copies were never destroyed, it would still mean there are many thousands of spidey fans for each copy out there.

[Jaydogrules]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

 

[jimjum12]

To believe that out of the original 175,000 print run that only one percent survived is equally grounded in the realm of conjecture and speculation..... GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Poe]

I have no earthly idea how many copies are out there. I do know that if the day ever comes that a cgc 1.8 can bring $7,500 I'm selling mine and blowing the money on cheap booze and young women.

 

Thanks Spidey.

[Lazyboy]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

 

You have to feel the rest of the elephant, blind man.

[bluechip]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

 

Copies that are not blue label include copies with a drop of glue or a dot of color touch, and of the billions of spider-man fans out there, the ones who would say those should not be counted as existing copies would be outnumbered by many multiples by those to whom such an approach makes no sense. And I am sure most of the people who have slight restored copies in high grade with alterations far fewer than the average mid grade copy or even the average higher grade copy, would think their copies count among the existing total. Neither would the guys who bought copies when they were kids and took a pen to a crease on the spine because they wanted to make it look better. The value of such books has already been lessened far out of proportion to similar books that were marked with the intent of defacing them just because the latter get a blue label. But to exclude them from the total of existing copies seems clearly designed to influence values, and to lessen the extant numbers artificially.

 

But to suggest that the number on the CGC census somehow is actually lower than the existing number takes it to a level that makes no sense if the opiner is well informed and/or is not trying to influence perceptions and value in a manner akin to the pumping of modern variants.

 

But I know that I will not spend the time that you will spend posting on this matter, so the number of posts in support of the idea that the book is rare will be inversely in proportion to the rarity of the book itself.

 

 

[G.A.tor]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate"

[rjpb]

The census count ( with whatever adjustments one wants to make for resubs and personally known raw copies) represents the baseline minimum the same way the educated estimate of initial print run (175-200,000 copies) represents the maximum number possible. Neither will be accurate, with the actual number somewhere in between, and they can only be used as points of extrapolation.

[paul747]

I will say with abolsute certainly there are not thousands of AF 15's laying around that have not yet been unearthed yet by collectors or dealers. Maybe at best 1k and I am being generous with that guess.

 

That is unrealistic and I won't hear such abolsute non-sense.

 

AF 15 is not a rare book, but they don't grow on trees either.

 

Unless some kind of warehouse unearths a couple thousand copies I won't hold my breath the CGC census will be x10 anytime soon.

 

I agree. Abolsute non-sense is the worst kind of all, and of that I am abolsutely certain.

 

But...what do you mean by "unearthed"? Do you mean copies owned by people who don't know what they have...? If so, I agree with your numbers.

 

But do you mean copies owned by people who do?

 

Then, I'd have to disagree.

 

Then I guess you are half agreeing with me.

 

There are not thousands of Raw copies left ungraded. I travel all around the country for shows and I don't think any national dealer would agree with that school of thought.

 

Could there be? Sure, but my Eagles could also win the Superbowl one year. I wouldn't hold my breath on either anytime soon.

 

Would be interesting to take a poll of all major dealers and their thoughts. I would say with near certainty there are thousands (as in more than one thousand ) of ungraded af15s out there in folks collections and with equal certainty (having also traveled the country and set up at major shows for last 10 years) would think the #1 seller of vintage comics in the world, metro , has sold near that many themselves (maybe Vincent will chime in).

 

Heck, I see many many every show. For someone to think there are only hundreds of ungraded af15 in existence seems naive to me, based on what I've seen.... But again, I suspect we can't really ever know.

 

Just look at major dealers walls at shows, or online inventory. They continue to be raw heavy (metro, dale Roberts, Harley Yee, Ritter, bedrock, graham crackers , etc). Sure more valuable books will get slabbed , but to think that more than 60% of all existing af15s have been slabbed doesn't pass the sight or experience or logic test (imo)

 

I read this thread and I am taking this post as the answer ! How can you argue with people in the trenches !

[Jaydogrules]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate"

 

Of course your personal observations will aid you in your estimates. That is indisputable.

 

I would, however, ask that you also factor in the (great) likelihood that many of the raw copies you have observed in your career are now living in slabs. (thumbs u

 

I have never stated that I think the only existing copies are the slabbed ones or that there are only a few hundred left out in the raw. I am on the record believing there are likely a few thousand still left. Maybe as many as 5000 (a large percentage with restoration).

 

However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point.

 

 

-J.

 

 

[G.A.tor]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate"

 

Of course your personal observations will aid you in your estimates. That is indisputable.

 

I would, however, ask that you also factor in the (great) likelihood that many of the raw copies you have observed in your career are now living in slabs. (thumbs u

 

I have never stated that I think the only existing copies are the slabbed ones or that there are only a few hundred left out in the raw. I am on the record believing there are likely a few thousand still left. Maybe as many as 5000 (a large percentage with restoration).

 

However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point.

 

 

-J.

 

I was only accounting for the ones I know are still in a raw state (hundreds I know of)....none of them have been slabbed to date (again, most I am certain of)...

 

as mentioned, metro has probably sold upteen hundreds (or maybe, dare I say, thousands) of raw af15's over the years, and hundreds that I have seen sell since the age of slabbage...some are probably slabbed, but the majority can't be, since the census wouldn't support that...

 

now, take into account every other dealer or person or store that has sold an af15 from 1960s-1999....that is thousands and thousands and thousands of them...again, even if every census copy came from these, that still leaves thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies...

 

then, take into account all the raw copies that we "know" are out there...and the numbers start to get staggering...

[NewWorldOrder]

Lets just say for argument sake there are 20,000 copies still ungraded.

 

(Which again I do not believe to to be the case)

 

So that means only about 25,000 people worldwide can own a 1st appearance of Spider-man.

 

That is still pretty low IMO, and still way too low of a supply for the demand that is currently out there.

Edited March 9, 2015 by SPECTRE_nWo

[BarryAllen]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate"

 

Of course your personal observations will aid you in your estimates. That is indisputable.

 

I would, however, ask that you also factor in the (great) likelihood that many of the raw copies you have observed in your career are now living in slabs. (thumbs u

 

I have never stated that I think the only existing copies are the slabbed ones or that there are only a few hundred left out in the raw. I am on the record believing there are likely a few thousand still left. Maybe as many as 5000 (a large percentage with restoration).

 

However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point.

 

 

-J.

 

I was only accounting for the ones I know are still in a raw state (hundreds I know of)....none of them have been slabbed to date (again, most I am certain of)...

 

as mentioned, metro has probably sold upteen hundreds (or maybe, dare I say, thousands) of raw af15's over the years, and hundreds that I have seen sell since the age of slabbage...some are probably slabbed, but the majority can't be, since the census wouldn't support that...

 

now, take into account every other dealer or person or store that has sold an af15 from 1960s-1999....that is thousands and thousands and thousands of them...again, even if every census copy came from these, that still leaves thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies...

 

then, take into account all the raw copies that we "know" are out there...and the numbers start to get staggering...

 

So what is the number you are calling...?

 

Total number of unslabbed comics in market?

[Lazyboy]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate"

 

Of course your personal observations will aid you in your estimates. That is indisputable.

 

I would, however, ask that you also factor in the (great) likelihood that many of the raw copies you have observed in your career are now living in slabs. (thumbs u

 

I have never stated that I think the only existing copies are the slabbed ones or that there are only a few hundred left out in the raw. I am on the record believing there are likely a few thousand still left. Maybe as many as 5000 (a large percentage with restoration).

 

However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point.

 

 

-J.

 

I would ask you to consider that believing the attrition rate for AF15 (or any post-"Ws" book) is well over 90% is completely, ridiculously irrational.

[G.A.tor]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate"

 

Of course your personal observations will aid you in your estimates. That is indisputable.

 

I would, however, ask that you also factor in the (great) likelihood that many of the raw copies you have observed in your career are now living in slabs. (thumbs u

 

I have never stated that I think the only existing copies are the slabbed ones or that there are only a few hundred left out in the raw. I am on the record believing there are likely a few thousand still left. Maybe as many as 5000 (a large percentage with restoration).

 

However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point.

 

 

-J.

 

I was only accounting for the ones I know are still in a raw state (hundreds I know of)....none of them have been slabbed to date (again, most I am certain of)...

 

as mentioned, metro has probably sold upteen hundreds (or maybe, dare I say, thousands) of raw af15's over the years, and hundreds that I have seen sell since the age of slabbage...some are probably slabbed, but the majority can't be, since the census wouldn't support that...

 

now, take into account every other dealer or person or store that has sold an af15 from 1960s-1999....that is thousands and thousands and thousands of them...again, even if every census copy came from these, that still leaves thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies...

 

then, take into account all the raw copies that we "know" are out there...and the numbers start to get staggering...

 

So what is the number you are calling...?

 

Total number of unslabbed comics in market?

I believe I voted for 10K as an approx. number of copies...

 

20K is possible....8 K is possible...who knows...

 

my point was in response to someone (don't recall who) saying there were less than 1000 (as in only hundreds)...that to me, is unreasonable and illogical...

 

could the number be 5000...I guess... but there are thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies out there, that much I am confident of

 

 

[jimjum12]

I don't see how only looking at blue labels on the census as a baseline (since those are, after all, the "Universal Grade" books, and not the niche and restored copies that have been materially and verifiably altered in some way and appeal to a far narrower market segment) is "wishful thinking", when that is, in fact, the only hard number that we actually have. (And even that is not wholly accurate, as the prevailing belief Is that that number on the census is most likely even too high, meaning there are actually LESS copies accounted for.)

 

Everything else beyond that with regards to what may or may not be out there is where all of the conjecture, tall tales, hearsay, and speculation begins.

 

 

-J.

 

not everything else...some of us have seen/held/counted copies... at least to me, that is "fact" and I can include those copies in my "estimate"

 

Of course your personal observations will aid you in your estimates. That is indisputable.

 

I would, however, ask that you also factor in the (great) likelihood that many of the raw copies you have observed in your career are now living in slabs. (thumbs u

 

I have never stated that I think the only existing copies are the slabbed ones or that there are only a few hundred left out in the raw. I am on the record believing there are likely a few thousand still left. Maybe as many as 5000 (a large percentage with restoration).

 

However, let it be noted that there are numerous examples of high dollar/rare modern variants with numbers on the census that exceed 50% of their entire print runs. So it is most certainly not outside the realm of possibility or even probability that half (or more than half) of all extant copies of AF 15 are present and accounted for on the census at this point.

 

 

-J.

 

I was only accounting for the ones I know are still in a raw state (hundreds I know of)....none of them have been slabbed to date (again, most I am certain of)...

 

as mentioned, metro has probably sold upteen hundreds (or maybe, dare I say, thousands) of raw af15's over the years, and hundreds that I have seen sell since the age of slabbage...some are probably slabbed, but the majority can't be, since the census wouldn't support that...

 

now, take into account every other dealer or person or store that has sold an af15 from 1960s-1999....that is thousands and thousands and thousands of them...again, even if every census copy came from these, that still leaves thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies...

 

then, take into account all the raw copies that we "know" are out there...and the numbers start to get staggering...

 

So what is the number you are calling...?

 

Total number of unslabbed comics in market?

I believe I voted for 10K as an approx. number of copies...

 

20K is possible....8 K is possible...who knows...

 

my point was in response to someone (don't recall who) saying there were less than 1000 (as in only hundreds)...that to me, is unreasonable and illogical...

 

could the number be 5000...I guess... but there are thousands and thousands of unslabbed copies out there, that much I am confident of

 

 

[Topnotchman]

In the 80's many of the established comic shops were getting multiple silver age collections walking in the door weekly. Silver age comics were around 20 years old at the time. Only a portion of the comic collections contained an AF 15, but those Silver Age comics were resold to collectors in the 1980's and many are still in that current collection. The number of AF 15's that were recycled to there second owner is a staggering number. I would estimate at least 20% of the initial print run is still in collections today. Minimum 20K copies.

[Jaydogrules]

A quick look at the census numbers are revealing, and, IMO, do not point to thousands upon thousands of copies likely being out there. In fact, in most years, even with the prices of this book publicly skyrocketing, the additions to the census have ranged from modest to downright puny (blue labels only).

 

Going back to 2005...

 

2005: 79-ish copies

 

2006: 67 copies

 

2007: 68 copies

 

2008: 97 copies

 

2009: 89 copies

 

2010: 70 copies

 

2011 (the year of the $1.1 Million dollar sale): 122 copies

 

2012: 146 copies

 

2013: 237 copies

 

2014: 108 copies

 

2015: 17 copies (so far, on pace for 70)

 

As you can see, there have only been four years where there have been more than 100 submissions, and that was only after the big sale that happened in 2011, with the subs peaking in 2013. Notice that less than half the amount of submissions were received the following year (in 2014), even though the book continued to perform well. And if the current pace for subs this year continues, it will be the least amount recorded since 2010 and back to the 2006-2007 levels. It seems that people want to have their cake and eat it too when it comes to this book. On the one hand, its common knowledge that a big sale and a skyrocketing book will bring out tons of new books to the census. Yet when it comes to this book, even though a copy sold for well over seven figures four years ago and it continues to break records in sales prices for all grades, people are positing that really no one is submitting it or people are submitting it at an infinitesimal rate, which would be in direct opposition to every other book that experienced a price spike, let alone sustained growth over a multi-year period.

 

That simply makes no sense.

 

This kind of drop off does not point to a statistical likelihood of their being "thousands upon thousands" of remaining copies in the wild. And with the average grade of all copies being submitted over the last 15 years being just 3.67, it is also highly unlikely that any significant number of the few remaining raw copies out there are even mid-grade, let alone high grade.

 

These are facts. This is what we know. Fifteen+ years, and 2000+ submissions are more than enough to make a statistical extrapolation. Sure we can account for the statements of high volume dealers like Gator, but we should not also discount the statements and experiences of other dealers like SOT and Roulette. And even a layman can look at what actually comes up for sale and peruse the offerings at cons and see for themselves that, no, there just aren't that many raw copies being offered out there anymore.

 

Are there some super rich comic book collectors out there with a box of 50 copies? Gator says he knows a few so I take him at this word. Are there hundreds of people out there like that? No way. Are there hundreds of people possibly out there with two or three raw copies? And are other collectors who post on these boards likely to know a few people out there like that? Sure, why not. But at most, that might give us 2-3000 raw copies left out there. But certainly not thousands upon thousands.

 

Speaking even from my own personal experience, I know a multitude of collectors, and I am the only one of my group that owns even a single copy of AF 15 in any grade, and I got hand shakes and congratulations when I unveiled it for the first time. It was kind of a big deal. And I would wager that my situation is probably closer to the norm among the collecting masses than any of the other stories we've been hearing on here. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

 

 

 

[jimjum12]

All the census tells us is that ONLY 1500 people have bothered to slab their copy GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[ttfitz]

Younger collectors....and I don't mean inexperienced.... age 40 or less, don't remember the days when an AF 15 in VG or better could be had at less than 50 bucks from several mail order dealers across the country. In those days, EVERYONE was collecting ASM and all of them were doing the whole run. These are folks who got them for 30 bucks.... heck, I know a guy who got his in the late 60's for 5 cents at a used book type shop. He also got ASM 1 and Hulk 1 that way.They all still have them and none of these guys are wealthy.... so to expect them to pay several hundred dollars to put their favorite comic in a slab....not less, sending it off to people they don't even know for a couple months, is just not what the folks I know deem to be necessary..... or even affordable for some of them. This is not a pot shot at CGC..... their service is worthwhile....it just represents that part of the market that is tech savvy, at least moderately funded, and often part of the buy/sell crowd. That part of the market is just the tip of the iceberg. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Yep. I didn't buy mine that early, but it was in the 80s, and if the PGM crowd are correct in their grade, the slabbing fees would be as much as I paid for mine, even if I wanted it slabbed, which I don't.