Accuracy of Gerber and Overstreet Scarcity Designations 8 8

[adamstrange]

If memory servers, Gerber used his own auction data and data from dealers from the 80's and production #'s to determine scarcity.

 

Here's what Gerber says " we've used every available reference source, including surveys done by Lawrence Watt Evans, and data provided by hundreds of collectors, as well as the result of combing through hundreds of collections for missing cover photographs"

 

I'm sure he did quite a bit of work on the scarcity index, but I'm pretty sure he didn't ask hundreds of collectors about the scarcity of each of the 22,000 different issues pictured, much less the thousands not pictured.

 

If he actually researched to the extent that he says he did, I would still take his results with a grain of salt based on his own words": "For the first time we are attempting to categorize comics into 10 indices of scarcity" "Bear in mind we aren't perfect" and "If you have data that can shed additional clarity on our SI numbers, please send them in".

 

I give Gerber a lot of credit for putting the first SWAG out there on scarcity and think that is no mean achievement. But I'm mildly amused that folks get so interested in having collected a Gerber 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 solely on the basis of the Gerber Guide SI, without some other corroborating evidence.

[tth2]

If memory servers, Gerber used his own auction data and data from dealers from the 80's and production #'s to determine scarcity.

 

Here's what Gerber says " we've used every available reference source, including surveys done by Lawrence Watt Evans, and data provided by hundreds of collectors, as well as the result of combing through hundreds of collections for missing cover photographs"

 

I'm sure he did quite a bit of work on the scarcity index, but I'm pretty sure he didn't ask hundreds of collectors about the scarcity of each of the 22,000 different issues pictured, much less the thousands not pictured.

 

If he actually researched to the extent that he says he did, I would still take his results with a grain of salt based on his own words": "For the first time we are attempting to categorize comics into 10 indices of scarcity" "Bear in mind we aren't perfect" and "If you have data that can shed additional clarity on our SI numbers, please send them in".

 

I give Gerber a lot of credit for putting the first SWAG out there on scarcity and think that is no mean achievement. But I'm mildly amused that folks get so interested in having collected a Gerber 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 solely on the basis of the Gerber Guide SI, without some other corroborating evidence.

Perhaps it's time someone attempted to update the scarcity ratings of the books featured in the Gerber Guides?

[esquirecomics]

Agreed. Worthwhile project. I'll raise it with Diamond/Gemstone.

[BLBcomics-migration]

Not having the time to go thru all the posts on this thread, my feelings about Ernie's project still remain it to be the greatest fan project ever attempted.

 

However, the data in it is almost all skewed in that he lists his sources in #2 - that list is weighted against how many covers he shot and used in his book. My name appears an inch or two down from the first column.

 

Ernie began his project in the early 1980s and he would come down from the Reno Nevada area where he lived before he went back east to take care of his ailing father into my Telegraph Ave Berkeley comic shop HQ to photograph 100s of covers at a time. Said he was working on a book of comic book covers, and it kept growing in scope as time went by. Took him years.

 

Eugene Henderson (San Diego Comicon Board of Directors, the last of the true "old timers" on it, and as a side bar, the one who sold his childhood copy of Action #1 to Bruce Hamilton for a grand who then brought it to the Berkeleycon 1973 show i co-hosted which Theo Holstein tried buying there for $1500, which brought on some newspaper publicity which got Bruce a 2nd copy which became the basis for the Action #1 selling for $1801.26 which blew the lid off comic book prices all back in the months April thru June 1973) also tooks 1000s of photo covers of my stuff each San Diego Comicon, setting up a copy camera contraption at the show.

 

That Berekelycon 73 was also where the Tom Reilly books first surfaced.

 

Getting back to Gerber's project, this was back when i had approximately 75-80% of all comic books published since 1933 on hand - prior to the ware house my comics company Best of Two Worlds owned with a million comic books in it and a Federal Disaster Area brought on by water floods.

 

There are about 280 collectors listed there - out of thousands then active - from which he compiled his project of the first two volumes.

 

Think about that for a sec.

 

His Scarcity Ratio Index was ultimately based off examining these 280 collection based all over the country.

 

And there were THOUSANDS of collections - still are, which he never examined.

 

I started exmaining his skewed SRI data results when i first read his interpretation of the Tom Reilly/Arnheim collection which is so falsely labled "San Francisco" copies in today's marketplace. EVERYTHING in those two paragraphs is wrong, except the name of the original owner, data which i have put out onto these boards earlier this year as well as some CBM thoughts Gary Carter printed back in the 1990s.

 

The most humorous SRI Ernie published was calling a Siderman #1 a "4"

 

Robert Beerbohm

http://www.blbcomics.com

[adamstrange]

Thanks for providing first-hand background on Gerber's project.

 

A quick follow-up question for you. I understand Gerber getting books from the 280 collectors that he credits, but was he really looking through all of the books from all of those collectors? I'm thinking he probably he probably looked at quite a few in entirety, just not all books from all of those collectors.

[BLBcomics-migration]

Back in the day, when the Direct Market was younger in energy as well as in size, Ernie came down from Nevada about once a month to score new comics stuff as well as look thru the Bay Area comic book store offerings.

 

His Mylar business was in its infancy as well.

 

he was a consumate comic book fan for a long time, and something comic book fans like to do, generally, is scroll thru comic book boxes looking at stuff they have never seen before, or examining any given collector's copy of any given book to ascertain its condition.

 

One thing i did notice Ernie was doing was if some one had a better copy of any given issue, he would supplant the better condition image into his master file of film negatives.

 

So, Ernie's project was also a photo journal of the best conditons he could find at the time.

 

He was enamoured with the Mile High collection, but i still hold forth that many many of the Tom Reilly copies are nicer, or in the least as nice, as its Edgar Church counter-part.

 

I imagine he looked thru much/most/all of each listed person's collections, though i could not vouch that concept in its entirety, as i can only go by the concept that he spent hours upon hours in my stores, looking at comics, making copy camera photos, etc.

 

And i do know he "upgraded" his photos - that is personal knowledge from Ernie to me.

 

Some enterprising soul could contact all the living persons listed in that weighted list on Photo Journal #2 and ask em -

 

Robert Beerbohm

[Montezuma]

I was one of the 280, and in my case it was toward the end of Ernie's project. He didn't examine my collection, he just sent me a list of issues he still needed pictures for, and I sent him my copies to be photographed.

[Harvey Dude]

The most humorous SRI Ernie published was calling a Siderman #1 a "4"

 

Good read Bob,

 

Excuse my naivety but I don’t have the Gerber readily available to determine the numbers for an

SRI 4. What SRI would you assign the Spiderman #1?

[Timulty]

Amazing Spiderman 1 Gerber SI 4

[adamstrange]

I was one of the 280, and in my case it was toward the end of Ernie's project. He didn't examine my collection, he just sent me a list of issues he still needed pictures for, and I sent him my copies to be photographed.

 

Welcome to the boards!

 

This was what I would have expected. And to repeat, this is not meant to knock Gerber's achievement which was to produce the finest book about a collectible -- at least as far as I know.

[BLBcomics-migration]

I was one of the 280, and in my case it was toward the end of Ernie's project. He didn't examine my collection, he just sent me a list of issues he still needed pictures for, and I sent him my copies to be photographed.

 

hello, might i inquire as to what your name is?

 

With you saying that Ernie never examined your collection, then that further strengthens my position that the SRI concepts in his book, which he was using to set himself off from Overstreet, as Ernie had visions of reprinting these two volumes every couple years with new upgraded data btw, at least in the early days when he was flush with excitement over it being printed finally.

 

To answer another query in this thread, i believe, not having my Gerber's handy right now either, that a SRI 4 is 2500 copies.

 

I wrote a piece abotu 10 years ago in CBM that i venture to opine that there are probably 2000 copies floating around the LA area alone - that i personally bought and sold around 1000 copies of Amazing Spiderman #1 over the course of having placed my first ad of comics for sale in RBCC 47 back in Oct 1966 .

 

Granted, most of that action occurred in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, when Am Spider 1 was a lot cheaper - it was about $20 circa 1973 or so, for example, but still, the concept that only 2500 copies of Spiderman 1 were still "alive" 20 years ago was humorous then to me, as it still is.

 

After thinking about this, and never asking him directly, i have come to conclusion that maybe Ernie was trying to present "demand" as well as "supply" into his equation.

 

what do others think of that thought?

 

Robert Beerbohm

[Harvey Dude]

I wrote a piece abotu 10 years ago in CBM that i venture to opine that there are probably

2000 copies floating around the LA area alone - that i personally bought and sold around 1000

copies of Amazing Spiderman #1 over the course of having placed my first ad of comics for

sale in RBCC 47 back in Oct 1966 . ... what do others think of that thought?

 

Robert Beerbohm

 

I certainly agree that there are more than 2500 copies in existence. I believe the census is

closing in on 1000 copies certifed and I venture to say that a great majority of low grade

Spider-man #1s are not slabbed. I own two copies of this book and I had no problem

locating them back in the 90s..

[Timulty]

Agreed. That seems to be a little off as well but remember what data Gerber was working with. At the point of publication, did you have 1000 copies or ASM 1 drop in your hands since you started dealing? Wouldn't be surprised, if that particular issue didn't see a spike in trading starting in the 90's.

 

I would have thought more than 2000 copies extant at that point because it seemed like every comic shop, I walked into had at least one on the walls or in the cupboard, so to speak.

[jbcomicbox]

I was one of the 280, and in my case it was toward the end of Ernie's project. He didn't examine my collection, he just sent me a list of issues he still needed pictures for, and I sent him my copies to be photographed.

 

hello, might i inquire as to what your name is?

 

With you saying that Ernie never examined your collection, then that further strengthens my position that the SRI concepts in his book, which he was using to set himself off from Overstreet, as Ernie had visions of reprinting these two volumes every couple years with new upgraded data btw, at least in the early days when he was flush with excitement over it being printed finally.

 

Robert Beerbohm

 

Ernie came to my house twice mainly because of my many Centaurs and odd ball GA i had....His books are the greatest gift to fandom....allowing people to "Journal shop" for books they never would have pursued.....A remarkable achievement. jon

[BLBcomics-migration]

Ernie came to my house twice mainly because of my many Centaurs and odd ball GA i had....His books are the greatest gift to fandom....allowing people to "Journal shop" for books they never would have pursued.....A remarkable achievement. jon

 

Hi Jon

 

I fully agree, and i prefaced my commentary in my entry into this thread on Ernie's Photo Journal Guide with saying it still stands, and probably will forever, due to the sheer hard work he put into it and the scope of the project, as the greatest comics fan project ever done.

 

A true gift to fandom and we all should say a prayer for Ernie tonight.

 

I know from personal knowledge that for some bizarre reason his two paragraphs on the Tom Reilly collection is 100% wrong, other than getting the name correct. He surely never asked the players involved, as i asked each of them, people i all know/knew personallt for many years.

 

That got me going into digging into his SRI research concepts. What i have been examing for many years now is the concept of his Scarcity Ratio Index and find the data which he used to come to his conclusions to be lacking.

 

On another note:

Can i get a shot of the back cover of that Standard Oil Comics you won from Stew? I am coming to grips with the next Overstreet history essays and surely want the data to be correct.

 

I have picked up half a dozen B series, so i am correcting the listing as well as the historical importance of this little known series predating Funnies on Parade as well as Gulf (Comic) Funny Weekly.

 

And many thanks for supplying the WOW #1 cover in OPG #35 - only issue i have never read yet.

 

Robert Beerbohm

http://www.blbcomics.com

[tth2]

There are about 280 collectors listed there - out of thousands then active - from which he compiled his project of the first two volumes.

 

Think about that for a sec.

 

His Scarcity Ratio Index was ultimately based off examining these 280 collection based all over the country.

 

And there were THOUSANDS of collections - still are, which he never examined.

Bob, I think most people would consider 280 out of a few thousand to be a decent statistical sampling, at least enough to draw some general conclusions. Surely you're not implying that he needed to see each and every one of those thousands of collections for his conclusions to be valid?

[BLBcomics-migration]

There are about 280 collectors listed there - out of thousands then active - from which he compiled his project of the first two volumes.

 

Think about that for a sec.

 

His Scarcity Ratio Index was ultimately based off examining these 280 collection based all over the country.

 

And there were THOUSANDS of collections - still are, which he never examined.

Bob, I think most people would consider 280 out of a few thousand to be a decent statistical sampling, at least enough to draw some general conclusions. Surely you're not implying that he needed to see each and every one of those thousands of collections for his conclusions to be valid?

 

Of course not, but over the years I have gone over various books with various collector friends of the higher number supposed very scarce to rare categories - and we would speel off those collectors we knew had a copy and invariabley come out with more copies supposedly known to exist.

 

but i honestly do not think 280 is high enough of a ratio sampling considering back in the 80s there were more collectors of old comics than there now

 

At the time i was buying 10,000 of each Xmen, and new comics sold in vast more numbers than they do now - by sheer process of osmosis, there were more collectors of older stuff as well

 

General conclusions are one thing, but to sit and assign SRI numbers to all the books in his Photo Journal Guide as an add-on bonus and people going biz-zonkers trying to collect the "blank" covers as well as the 9 and 10 SRI issues, well, just by following Ernie on Spiderman #1 being a 4 according to him, the rest of it unravels as well

 

at least it does to me, and a lot of other collectors.

 

doesn't mean i am 100% correct either

 

bob beerbohm

[tth2]

Thanks Bob, I agree. Probably why it's high time someone updates his scarcity ratings for each book.

 

By the way, glad to see you back on the boards, and thanks for the massive amounts of new info you've contributed today!

[BLBcomics-migration]

yer welcome tth2

 

Thanks, this old dog knows a lot about the inside contents, the history behind the history, most of the old war stories of the comics business, but evidently, i still have a few things to learn about grading old comic books in the higher grades

 

- so, i am going to be posting cover scans this week end to Buddy Can You Spare A Grade as i am going be going back to grading school for a while in an honest effort to come up to speed on the concept of standards tightening in the hobby once again.

 

That, and a pair of cheaters i bought at Walmart as my long time 20/20 vision is not as strong at 53 as it was decades past.

 

I guess my major concern has been content over form in the hobby. But not the only.

 

But old dogs can learn new tricks - and all i have ever done for over 35 years now is buy & sell old comic books - and i plan on doing same till the daisies be coming up over my grave -

 

best

 

robert beerbohm

http://www.BLBComics.com

[lou_fine]

There are about 280 collectors listed there - out of thousands then active - from which he compiled his project of the first two volumes.

 

Think about that for a sec.

 

His Scarcity Ratio Index was ultimately based off examining these 280 collection based all over the country.

 

And there were THOUSANDS of collections - still are, which he never examined.

Bob, I think most people would consider 280 out of a few thousand to be a decent statistical sampling, at least enough to draw some general conclusions. Surely you're not implying that he needed to see each and every one of those thousands of collections for his conclusions to be valid?

 

I also feel that Tim has a very valid point here.

 

After all, aren't the Neilsen TV ratings based on a sample size of only 900 or some small figure like that and it's supposed to represent the viewing habits for over 200 million Americans. Of course, the sample has to be structured and set up properly to be a representative sample of the entire population. No doubt Bob's sample size of 280 (either complete or partial) would not be totally representative, but I think it's probably still good enough to provide the hobby with some relative idea of scarcity between books.

 

Took a look at the SI 4 rating and it actually covers a range of between 1,000 to 2,000 copies in existence. So Ernie definitely got the SI numbers wrong on the ASM #1. Never bother to pick up the Marvel editions, but I don't believe he has the SI ratings in there or does he? When I was deciding between GA books to buy, I would always refer to the SI rating since I felt that it was just another piece of information to factor into my purchasing decision. Although the ratings are probably not completely accurate from an absolute point of view, I always felt that they had some validity from a relative point of view.

 

Not sure about Ernie planning to produce an update every few years. I do know, however, that he was planning to produce quarterly updates for his RVI pricing index. I found this convoluted pricing index to be totally useless whereas his SI scarcity index did have some value for me, especially with respect to the earlier and rarer GA or pre-GA books.

 

Overall, I would fully agree with both Jon and Bob here on the importance of the first two volumes of his photojournal guide, since I also feel that it represents the most significant one-time comic publication to date and possibly ever, from a pure collector's point of view.