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BLACK WIDOW: THE MOVIE (TBD)
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2,016 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, paperheart said:

1) embarassingly wrong: $109MM as of the end of last weekend

2)i will take the under at 2-1 odds for all the money in the world

How can my prediction be wrong when it hasn't happened yet? Those movie stock forecasts in the end mean nothing, especially in these unprecedented times.

I won't bet you all the money in the world, but I'd bet $100 bucks I'm within the $50 million dollar margin of error.

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57 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

 

 

Who the hel is Scott Menzel? And I've never even heard of We Live Entertainment. The guy has apparently gotten around the review embargo by tweeting his review in chunks.

Anyway, he definitely seems to have not liked Black Widow. A quick Google of his past comic book movie reviews shows that his taste as a reviewer is a little all over the place. He thought GOTG Vol 2 was a mess and that Endgame was okay if uneven. He said Dr Strange, Black Panther, and Captain Marvel were subsequently the greatest Marvel movies yet. He tweeted Ragnarok was good for a Thor movie. He said Ant-Man and the Wasp was a blast. And he said WW1984 was a strong sequel. He's a little all over the place.

Meanwhile everybody else is tweeting postive thoughts about the film and that Yelena Belova steals the show.

Thanks, but I'll be the judge after I see it in IMAX, Dolby, and in 3D two times each.

 

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I mean, I love Scarlet Johansson's Black Widow, but if there's a knock on her, it's that, unlike Brie Larson, Scarlet isn't exactly the greatest actress in the world. I know trolls like to say over and over again that "Brie's acting is wooden!" an other nonsense, but Scarlet's acting actually IS a little wooden. Brie Larson makes me want to go buy a Nissan Sentra of all cars. I can't picture Scarlet Johansson convincing me to do the same. I'll admit she was fine in Marriage Story, but Adam Driver really carried the movie. That Florence Pugh reportedly steals the movie doesn't surprise me because FloPu is a better actress than ScarJo, and in the end, might be a better Black Widow. We'll see.

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1 hour ago, D84 said:

I hope I disagree after seeing it.

Me too. I don’t really know any critics by name other than Siskel and Ebert but several comments said this guy loved Josstice League and WW84 so…

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56 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

How can my prediction be wrong when it hasn't happened yet? Those movie stock forecasts in the end mean nothing, especially in these unprecedented times.

I won't bet you all the money in the world, but I'd bet $100 bucks I'm within the $50 million dollar margin of error.

that was referring to that preposterous prediction in the article of $350MM domestic by the end of the second weekend (unless that was your embarrassing mistake and preposterous prediction)

Edited by paperheart
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3 minutes ago, paperheart said:

that was referring to that preposterous prediction in the article of $350MM domestic by the end of the second weekend (unless that was your embarrassing mistake and preposterous prediction)

That was my prediction. Again how is it a mistake when it hasn't happened yet. Got a time machine? And how is 350 million in two weekends a preposterous prediction when A Quiet Place 2 made almost 200 million in two weekends?

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47 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said:

That was my prediction. Again how is it a mistake when it hasn't happened yet. Got a time machine? And how is 350 million in two weekends a preposterous prediction when A Quiet Place 2 made almost 200 million in two weekends?

again, AQP2 made $109MM domestic thru its second weekend, your # is just flat out embarrassingly wrong. so with availability on Disney+ and coming out of a pandemic with capacity limitations still in place, Black Widow is going to do $85MM more than Captain Marvel did in it's first two weekends domestically? it's going to nearly match, Avengers: AOU? your blind allegiance is hallucinatory.

Edited by paperheart
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15 minutes ago, paperheart said:

again, AQP2 made $109MM domestic thru its second weekend, your # is just flat out embarrassingly wrong. so with availability on Disney+ and coming out of a pandemic with capacity limitations still in place, Black Widow is going to do $85MM more than Captain Marvel did in it's first two weekends domestically? it's going to nearly match, Avengers: AOU? your blind allegiance is hallucinatory.

Oh yeah, you're right, it only made 109 mil domestic. Not sure where I got 178 mil. I guess 350 mil is a lot for a second weekend. I'll amend it to 250 million for Black Widow after its second weekend.

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1 hour ago, jsilverjanet said:

:bump: where’s the hype machine for this movie?

 

6 minutes ago, D84 said:

I think the hype train derailed from all the delays.

This also has me worried for Dune.

I think some assume he really is a Disney social marketer ensuring the brand is protected at all cost. So being blocked didn't fit the goals.

Either that, or...

MCU_SUV.gif.a0c842c05be0ec5d1552f1da905ca8bd.gif

been selling like a villain and upgrading that SUV :facepalm:

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They hardly have any commercials out for this which is pretty confusing to me. This is their first foray back to the box office and they're not even going to promote it? I don't know if they blew the whole advertising budget the first go round, but being just over a week away my TV should be saturated with ads by now. I don't see this pulling big numbers at this point it's going to be a blip. I'm seeing more ads for Fast 9 and it's already been out for a few days. 

Fast 9 hit 70 mil this weekend about 30 mil less than Fast 8. Average drops have been ~60% down on the 2nd week for the biggest movies so far, so Fast 9 will probably only take around 30 mil this coming week settling at about 100 mil for 2 weeks (Fast 8 did 160 mil after the 2nd week for reference). I can't see Black Widow doing any better than that. It's a Marvel solo movie. They don't do anywhere near what the big team ups do. This isn't Black Panther, this is an inconsequential side plot for a dead character that most people aren't going to care about.

Movie theaters aren't seeing anywhere near pre pandemic attendance. I'm going peak hours on the weekend and only seeing 5-8 other people in a theater. This is how it's going to be until early next year at the least.

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1 hour ago, AJLewandoski said:

They hardly have any commercials out for this which is pretty confusing to me. This is their first foray back to the box office and they're not even going to promote it? I don't know if they blew the whole advertising budget the first go round, but being just over a week away my TV should be saturated with ads by now. I don't see this pulling big numbers at this point it's going to be a blip. I'm seeing more ads for Fast 9 and it's already been out for a few days. 

Fast 9 hit 70 mil this weekend about 30 mil less than Fast 8. Average drops have been ~60% down on the 2nd week for the biggest movies so far, so Fast 9 will probably only take around 30 mil this coming week settling at about 100 mil for 2 weeks (Fast 8 did 160 mil after the 2nd week for reference). I can't see Black Widow doing any better than that. It's a Marvel solo movie. They don't do anywhere near what the big team ups do. This isn't Black Panther, this is an inconsequential side plot for a dead character that most people aren't going to care about.

Movie theaters aren't seeing anywhere near pre pandemic attendance. I'm going peak hours on the weekend and only seeing 5-8 other people in a theater. This is how it's going to be until early next year at the least.

Next weekend is 4 days with the Monday holiday, so F9 will probably be closer to $125MM thru July 5 ($18MM Mon-Thurs, $30MM Fri-Sun, $7MM Mon) but agree that Disney probably shouldn't expect much better than that from BW after 2 weeks. 

Edited by paperheart
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