AVATAR 2 THE WAY OF WATER starring Sam Worthington (2022) 2 2

[Bosco685]

Wow!

That says a lot when you get a reaction from him like that.

[Bosco685]

[paperheart]

Heading to $1B less than Avatar

[Bosco685]

On 12/24/2022 at 2:17 PM, paperheart said:

Heading to $1B less than Avatar

Definitely won't be breaking the same records as 2009.

But the international updates come in tomorrow. Will be interesting what that brings.

[Xenosmilus]

On 12/24/2022 at 9:53 AM, Bosco685 said:

Wow!

That says a lot when you get a reaction from him like that.

I have no idea who this person is LOL

[Bosco685]

On 12/25/2022 at 12:31 AM, Xenosmilus said:

I have no idea who this person is LOL

The designer of the Metal Gear series of games who is recognized in the industry as a visionary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hideo_Kojima

And when he doesn't care for a movie, he will follow the Japanese polite path and just share he saw it with his 3.5M followers.

[Jaydogrules]

So now that James Cameron is on the record saying this needs to make 2 BILLION dollars to turn a profit, or a 5X multiple of its $400M budget, are people going to finally stop pretending that these movies with huge and even mid-level budgets and 2-2.5X multiples are "breaking even"? 

-J.

[Gatsby77]

On 12/25/2022 at 11:18 AM, Jaydogrules said:

So now that James Cameron is on the record saying this needs to make 2 BILLION dollars to turn a profit, or a 5X multiple of its $400M budget, are people going to finally stop pretending that these movies with huge and even mid-level budgets and 2-2.5X multiples are "breaking even"? 

-J.

Well, Deadline's reported the budget (before P&A) is actually $460 million.

Assume a $200 million marketing budget on top of that and $2 bn. or so is just ~3x for a breakeven.

[Bosco685]

Quote

Even with unfavorable circumstances, “Avatar: The Way of Water” managed to bring in decent numbers, earning $56 million from 4,202 North American theaters over the traditional weekend. It looks to collect $82 million between Friday and Monday, which would bring its domestic tally to $278 million. The first “Avatar” faced similarly unfavorable weather conditions when it opened in December 2009, but that didn’t prevent the film from, over time, crushing records with $760 million in North America and $2.92 billion globally.

 

With promising business during the week, the “Avatar” sequel has grossed $601 million internationally and $855.4 million globally, making it the fifth-highest grossing movie of 2022 after just 10 days in theaters. By the end of the year, the $350 million-budgeted tentpole is aiming to hit the $1 billion mark. Only two other movies, “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Jurassic World: Dominion,” have managed to hit that benchmark this year.

 

[Jaydogrules]

On 12/25/2022 at 8:46 AM, Gatsby77 said:

Well, Deadline's reported the budget (before P&A) is actually $460 million.

Assume a $200 million marketing budget on top of that and $2 bn. or so is just ~3x for a breakeven.

If it's $460M budget (ridiculous) then $2B would be a 4.3X multiple of the production budget (people don't directly factor in P&A on the multiple, they bake it into the necessary multiple to pencil out a rough break even). 

Even in a best case scenario, I think it's safe to assume that most of these movies need a MINIMUM of 4X production these days just to break theatrically.  

Food for thought. 

-J.

[Gatsby77]

On 12/25/2022 at 11:54 AM, Jaydogrules said:

If it's $460M budget (ridiculous) then $2B would be a 4.3X multiple of the production budget (people don't directly factor in P&A on the multiple, they bake it into the necessary multiple to pencil out a rough break even). 

Even in a best case scenario, I think it's safe to assume that most of these movies need a MINIMUM of 4X production these days just to break theatrically.  

Food for thought. 

-J.

Fair. It's early yet - not enough coffee.

Here's the citation from Deadline on the $460 million cost (before P&A) - multiple other outlets have run with it but so far the only other validation is the Variety article citing James Cameron as saying to break even, it'd have to be the 4th or 5th highest grossing film ever (which puts it at $2 bn. worldwide box office).

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-1235200714/

[Bosco685]

On 12/25/2022 at 11:46 AM, Gatsby77 said:

Well, Deadline's reported the budget (before P&A) is actually $460 million.

Assume a $200 million marketing budget on top of that and $2 bn. or so is just ~3x for a breakeven.

 

On 12/25/2022 at 12:01 PM, Gatsby77 said:

Fair. It's early yet - not enough coffee.

Here's the citation from Deadline on the $460 million cost (before P&A) - multiple other outlets have run with it but so far the only other validation is the Variety article citing James Cameron as saying to break even, it'd have to be the 4th or 5th highest grossing film ever (which puts it at $2 bn. worldwide box office).

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-1235200714/

I think when quoting this we have to be careful, as even 

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Opens To $134M; Why Pic’s Box Office Fate Will Be Determined Through The Holidays

Quote

Despite Avatar: The Way of Water missing its $150M-$175M projections, rival distribution sources and exhibition aren’t bothered – nor do they believe that the sky is falling for cinema– particularly for a movie that cost according to sources (not Disney) at about around $460M before P&A.

Anthony D'Alessandro purposely notes this is according to sources outside of Disney - so not from the actual studio that controls the balance sheet for the film.

'actual' versus 'rumored' does make for a difference. What the final number is may or may not make its way out into the public.

[Gatsby77]

On 12/25/2022 at 12:07 PM, Bosco685 said:

 

I think when quoting this we have to be careful, as even 

‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Opens To $134M; Why Pic’s Box Office Fate Will Be Determined Through The Holidays

Anthony D'Alessandro purposely notes this is according to sources outside of Disney - so not from the actual studio that controls the balance sheet for the film.

'actual' versus 'rumored' does make for a difference. What the final number is may or may not make its way out into the public.

Yes - and as I noted, the only other publicly reported data point that validates it (so far) is the purported admission by Cameron that break-even is ~$2 bn.

Which makes a production budget of $460 million more likely than something in the mere $250 - $350 million range.

[Bosco685]

On 12/25/2022 at 12:13 PM, Gatsby77 said:

Yes - and as I noted, the only other publicly reported data point that validates it (so far) is the purported admission by Cameron that break-even is ~$2 bn.

Which makes a production budget of $460 million more likely than something in the mere $250 - $350 million range.

Cameron making that wild statement definitely leaves people wondering. But like Drotto noted, Avatar 2 and 3 were filmed back-to-back. So where the budget breakoff point is may be slightly tricky. And especially if Avatar 3 could benefit from some of the set expenses being covered by the second movie.

But we also see folks that one moment discredit an industry source - yet refer to them when they convey something more in line with their views on a film. Then they are most credible. Odd.

[Jaydogrules]

On 12/25/2022 at 9:38 AM, Bosco685 said:

Cameron making that wild statement definitely leaves people wondering. But like Drotto noted, Avatar 2 and 3 were filmed back-to-back. So where the budget breakoff point is may be slightly tricky. And especially if Avatar 3 could benefit from some of the set expenses being covered by the second movie.

But we also see folks that one moment discredit an industry source - yet refer to them when they convey something more in line with their views on a film. Then they are most credible. Odd.

I think the source people are using is Cameron himself.

-J.

[Bosco685]

Disney is probably going to play the long game with this franchise recognizing between the films and the World of Pandora investment it has a lot riding on this.

[Bosco685]

On 12/25/2022 at 12:45 PM, Jaydogrules said:

I think the source people are using is Cameron himself.

-J.

That's why I noted his wild statement, though that one simple claim from Cameron didn't distinguish between Avatar 2 and Avatar 3 bleedover.

Time will tell if Disney announces continuing on with the sequel to this film.

[Bosco685]

This was even more wild, and confirms why the blended budget has occurred. Avatar 3 has a 9-hour cut, and Cameron has already filmed scenes for Avatar 4 to work around the younger actors aging.

James Cameron’s Avatar 3 Cut is Currently 9 Hours Long

Quote

Director James Cameron's current cut of Avatar 3 is nine hours long, if a new rumor is to be believed.

 

The rumor comes courtesy of industry insider Jeff Sneider, who discussed the third Avatar installment's progress during an episode of the Hot Mic podcast. "Someone reached out [to me] and said Cameron handed in a cut of Avatar 3 last week," he said. "The cut was, no joke, 9 hours long. And apparently, he's insisting on doing the [visual effects] for this cut, so that all 9 hours get fully VFX'd, then he'll cut it down. Rather than figuring out what he wants and having them just do the VFX for that. That's what I heard." Neither 20th Century Studios nor Lightstorm Entertainment have publicly commented on Avatar 3's status, which means that Sneider's remarks should be taken with a grain of salt for now.

 

Quote

Despite the considerable energy Cameron has devoted to the Avatar sequels, he noted in a recent interview that there's no guarantee he'll finish them all. According to Cameron, the franchise could wrap up with Avatar 3, should Avatar: The Way of Water not perform well enough at the box office.

‘Avatar 3’ and ‘Avatar 4’ scenes already shot, James Cameron says

Quote

The 68-year-old filmmaker told Entertainment Weekly on Tuesday that some scenes involving the younger actors for the third and fourth movies have been shot for continuity reasons.

 

“Otherwise you get — and I love ‘Stranger Things’ — but you get the ‘Stranger Things’ effect, where they’re supposed to still be in high school, [but] they look like they’re 27,” Cameron said. “You know, I love the show. It’s OK, we’ll suspend disbelief. We like the characters. But, you know.”

 

The second “Avatar” welcomed new young characters who are already “growing like a weed.” For instance, actor Trinity Jo-Li Bliss was 7 years old when cast and is now 13. Jack Champion was 12 when he got the role, but is now 18.

 

[Jaydogrules]

Differences in budgets notwithstanding, it is noteworthy that avatar 2 has already made a significant amount of more money in 10 days than wakanda forever has made in SEVEN WEEKS (STILL not even at 800M). 

-J.

Edited December 25, 2022 by Jaydogrules

[Bosco685]

On 12/25/2022 at 2:59 PM, Jaydogrules said:

Differences in budgets notwithstanding, it is noteworthy that avatar 2 has already made a significant amount of more money in 10 days than wakanda forever has made in SEVEN WEEKS (STILL not even at 800M). 

-J.

It is quite impressive how fast this film has gone up with a budding franchise involving a sequel 13 years after the original film. And with many assuming nobody wanted to see this film.

The fixation on the budget being monstrously large is just more toxic debate detractors instead of people sharing whether they liked, disliked or were mediocre with the film. No matter, Disney must already be committed to the third film as it is shot and being refined. So no matter, unless something wild happens that film is coming out too whether it be 2024 or later.