Market is Insane 5 5

[delekkerste]

15 hours ago, october said:

If your time horizon is a 30-40 years, I don't I think you will find many people with a positive outlook for the comic market.

Actually, I think most people here have a positive outlook for the comic market - 30, 40, 50 years, even indefinitely. It's human nature to extrapolate their own experience indefinitely into the future. 

That said, when I talk to the more thoughtful members of the hobby, most* will readily admit, off the record at least, that there is a shelf life for this material being as popular and as valuable as it has been in recent years.  But, I think they are a minority relative to the overall size of the hobby. 

 

* Some of my dealer friends being the biggest exceptions! I just got into an argument with one of them today about the longevity of Stephen Platt original artwork...FFS.

[lizards2]

1 hour ago, DavidTheDavid said:

Many collect digital goods now. We had cases filled with tapes, then cd's. Today, you either create a digital library or just pay a monthly subscription for as much music as you can get. Apple TV advertises, "Build Your Collection!" Gamers have game collections on Steam. People who play digital card games like Hearthstone collect those cards. I work in digital gaming, and we love when a completist comes along, someone who wants every card or item in a game. Skins, avatars, Kindle libraries: those are collectibles. There are even living digital card games now, with fixed quantities of certain cards. There's a digital card game built on the blockchain; these cards can be traded and have varying values. There are even digital collectibles that are simply like old trading cards not connected to any game, but built on the blockchain so that each copy is singular. Heck, lots of kids collect memes, storing thousands of them in computer folders.

I don't think that collecting impulse will ever die. It's just been massively disrupted as has everything else in our society.

I must be getting old - I almost need an English interpreter to understand any of this.....,  

[miraclemet]

1 hour ago, DavidTheDavid said:

Many collect digital goods now. We had cases filled with tapes, then cd's. Today, you either create a digital library or just pay a monthly subscription for as much music as you can get. Apple TV advertises, "Build Your Collection!" Gamers have game collections on Steam. People who play digital card games like Hearthstone collect those cards. I work in digital gaming, and we love when a completist comes along, someone who wants every card or item in a game. Skins, avatars, Kindle libraries: those are collectibles. There are even living digital card games now, with fixed quantities of certain cards. There's a digital card game built on the blockchain; these cards can be traded and have varying values. There are even digital collectibles that are simply like old trading cards not connected to any game, but built on the blockchain so that each copy is singular. Heck, lots of kids collect memes, storing thousands of them in computer folders.

 I don't think that collecting impulse will ever die. It's just been massively disrupted as has everything else in our society.

The difference lies in whether the "owner" of those digital items are actually the owner. In many cases the legal language around companies that "produce" digital goods (especially within games) claim no liability to ensuring the ongoing existence of those items. If Tapped Out disappeared tomorrow, all of the money spent building my Springfield would go down the drain as I'd have no way to access my creation in the future. Also some digital gaming companies have rules restricting the transfer of these digital items, and I think in order for an item to be collectible it has to have perceived value by more than one person, and because of that shared perceived value be able to to be bought, sold and traded. 

In other words everything that is collected is not necessarily a collectible. 

My daughter collects rocks (not gems, not minerals, rocks like from the sidewalk, or driveway). Her rocks are a collection, but they are not collectible because (unless finding the odd gold nugget) the rocks have no value beyond her. 

Similarly if I want to collect all the various skins in PUBG Mobile, thats fine, and it's a collection, but since those items are not able to be bought/sold/traded the items are not collectible. 

(but that's just my definition). 

[theCapraAegagrus]

1 minute ago, miraclemet said:

...If Tapped Out disappeared tomorrow...

[BlowUpTheMoon]

8 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

If Tapped Out disappeared tomorrow, all of the money spent building my Springfield would go down the drain as I'd have no way to access my creation in the future.

You're paying for donuts? 

 

Spoiler

 

[WolverineX]

1 hour ago, lizards2 said:

I must be getting old - I almost need an English interpreter to understand any of this.....,  

Kids hate comics.  They only buy digital goods. 

[miraclemet]

2 hours ago, BlowUpTheMoon said:

You're paying for donuts? 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

a couple of times early in my game life when there were nice deals, but pretty quickly maxed out my levels and bonus and just set up a KEM farm for doughnuts, granted I stopped playing a few years ago.... hmm wonder if I could still get into my account... 

 

[BlowUpTheMoon]

24 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

2 hours ago, BlowUpTheMoon said:

You're paying for donuts? 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

a couple of times early in my game life when there were nice deals, but pretty quickly maxed out my levels and bonus and just set up a KEM farm for doughnuts, granted I stopped playing a few years ago.... hmm wonder if I could still get into my account... 

I sent a guy $5 via payPal and he gave me 1.4 million donuts and every character released at the time.   Sent five other players to him for the same thing. @Jeffro™

[musicmeta]

If the book isn't 9.9 or 10.0 why bother buying it!    "Some" people like buying the very best (in their mind) that they can afford.  it's really that simple.  If you're happy with a 9.0 or even a 6.0 then that is all that should matter.  Some folks like having nice looking CGC 9.8 books if it's
in their collecting wheel house and they got the coin to buy them.  

[lou_fine]

On 6/5/2019 at 8:24 AM, romanheart said:

Has anyone ever bought a comic of lesser $ value because they liked the grade of the book better over that of a similar copy that was graded higher? You should see the expression on some dealers when you buy their cheaper copy because you think it has fewer flaws.

Maybe 10-15% of the time I would say a book is 9.8 or 9.6 and agree with CGC, IMO they are overly strict and grading is so subjective. I think a lot of people really are paying for the number.

 

Well, if you are talking about CGC 9.6 and 9.8 graded copies of books, then you are most likely referring to the Modern books.

In this particular niche of the comic book collecting world, it would appear to be pretty much all about collecting the label as the underlying book itself doesn't actually have much value in anything below uber high grade condition.  As a result, it's all about the label because these books otherwise, are pretty much just as common as dirt.  

If you check out the GA auctions though, you do tend to see lower graded copies going for more than higher graded copies.  Especially with the HTF books or in demand classic covers where it's really more just about acquiring the book itself as opposed to chasing after a label.  With these types of books, the label definitely does not mean as much and in fact, you often see lower graded copies go for huge dollars just because it presents much nicer relative to the assigned CGC grade.  It's all about the books here and not so much about the label.    

[lou_fine]

22 hours ago, VintageComics said:

On 6/5/2019 at 2:03 PM, lou_fine said:

On 6/4/2019 at 9:21 AM, Get Marwood & I said:

In respect of comics - graded comics - and I've said this a few times recently - and like sentences with lots of dashes in them - the five figure 9.8 could actually be the 8K 9.6 but for one grading decision on a given day. The next day, it might have been 9.6. Or 9.9. The whole thing is one big pile of nonsense. But a fun one, if you're rich. 

+1

This is actually so very true, as evident from the many board discussions here in the past talking about resubs that have come back with different grades.  

You guys make it sound like it's a total crapshoot and they're just throwing darts but that's not the case.

There is some variance in a minority of submissions where either in-betweeners could go between two grades or something changes about the book between submissions but as a general rule books don't bounce between 3 different grades as the norm.

Roy;

Definitely not a crapshoot by far, but also not anywhere close to the "science" that you and other boardies like RAM makes it sound like sometimes.

I remember when the new grading regime came in a few years ago and boardies were complaining how much lower their accuracy were in terms of having their estimated grades line up with CGC's final grades.  There were even threads here questioning why CGC 9.2 graded books were coming back as CGC 8.0 and CGC 8.0 graded books coming back as CGC 7.0 upon straight resubs with no work being done to them.  Good thing the submittor was smart enough to retain the old labels and able to get CGC to move the grades back up a bit.  On the other hand, if I remember correctly, there was even one that went the other way with a CGC 9.0 graded copy coming back as a 9.6 copy with just a straight resub.  Go figure that or it's quite possible that my memory is starting to fade after such a long time.  

I can definitely understand the grades going down when a new grading regime takes over as they like to show everybody that they are not only just as good as the previous regime, but in fact even better.  Unfortunately, to most people they think that being a tougher grader means that you are a better grader.  A definite fallacy from my point of view as I think a better grader is one who's consistent and accurate, as opposed to being either too soft or too hard.  

By the way, a grading range of 9.2 to 8.0 or from 8.0 down to 7.0 is definitely what I would call an in-between, but a bit too wide for my taste.  

[Jeffro.]

3 hours ago, BlowUpTheMoon said:

4 hours ago, miraclemet said:

6 hours ago, BlowUpTheMoon said:

You're paying for donuts? 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

a couple of times early in my game life when there were nice deals, but pretty quickly maxed out my levels and bonus and just set up a KEM farm for doughnuts, granted I stopped playing a few years ago.... hmm wonder if I could still get into my account... 

I sent a guy $5 via payPal and he gave me 1.4 million donuts and every character released at the time.   Sent five other players to him for the same thing. @Jeffro™

Paying EA for donuts is for suckers

[RockMyAmadeus]

7 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

other boardies like RAM makes it sound like sometimes.

RAM...? Who the eff is RAM...?

[Karl Liebl]

9 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

RAM...? Who the eff is RAM...?

RAM rammed ROM and made a Micronaught...

[ADAMANTIUM]

14 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

RAM...? Who the eff is RAM...?

 

4 minutes ago, Karl Liebl said:

RAM rammed ROM and made a Micronaught...

 

[lou_fine]

On 6/5/2019 at 3:03 PM, Wolverinex said:

On 6/5/2019 at 2:51 PM, Karl Liebl said:

Hmmm...  These expensive books are being fueled by old men who have money from a lengthy career and used to buy comics as a kid.  What about modern kids?  

 

What's going to happen when all these old men die off?

This reminds me of the first time I was down in the SD Con in the very early 90's and the latest hot book was the Limited Retailer Edition of Spidey 1 by McFarlane which all of the dealers were trying to foist off to the speculators for $1,000.     Talk about a speculative bubble just waiting to burst.   

I remember being lucky enough to find a dealer with 2 uber HG copies of Cap 29 and Cap 31 at $500 a pop.  When I showed them to a dealer, he told me I was crazy to pay that kind of money for books like that which will eventually go down in value once all of the old collectors die off.  Instead, he stated that my $1K would have been much better spent on the Spidey 1 which was a true rarity and would never see $1,000 again, especially since it was drawn by McFarlane who would be the super hot artist going forward.  

Well, at least he was right about one thing as it's definitely not seeing $1K anytime soon as it's sitting at only $195 in top of guide in this year's edition.  In the meantime, the 2 Cap's have also moved away from their $1,000 top of guide valuations back then and like the Spidey 1, will also definitely not see the $1K mark again.  Especially since they are now sitting at a combined valuation of well over $15K at top of guide in this year's edition.  

 

[lou_fine]

21 minutes ago, Karl Liebl said:

30 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

RAM...? Who the eff is RAM...?

RAM rammed ROM and made a Micronaught...

Oh, come on now.

Isn't it obvious to you that it's not only my memory that's starting to go, but my eyesight and dyslexia is also starting to go.  

[ADAMANTIUM]

4 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Oh, come on now.

Isn't it obvious to you that it's not only my memory that's starting to go, but my eyesight and dyslexia is also starting to go.  

on the bright side you'll always have auto correct!

[lou_fine]

12 hours ago, Wolverinex said:

On 6/5/2019 at 7:10 PM, FlyingDonut said:

100% in agreement with the above. What was the most valuable comic in the first Overstreet Price Guide? Feature Book 26. It is worth - probably in actual dollars, not inflation adjusted - the same now as it was in 1970.

It was worth more than Action1?

No, I think he was simply trying to emphasize the point that collectors tastes can change over an extended period of time.  

This was definitely the case with the early strip reprint books which indeed was right up there near the top of the valuation charts.  And yet collectors tastes in some ways have also remain the same as Action 1 and 'Tec 27 was at the top of the charts back then and they continue to be at the top of the charts almost 50 full years later.

If you click onto the link below, you'll find that Feature Book 26 was indeed quite high up in the original Overstreet Price Guide way back in 1970 as it finished up tied with 10 other books at #9 with a Good valuation of $85.  Looks like Action #1 was at the top with a Good valuation of $200 followed by 'Tec 27 at $175 and then the long time #3 position held by Marvel Comics #1 at $165.  This was then followed by the expected Supes 1 and Whiz 1 at $150 followed by the only other 3-figure books which were Batman 1 and King Comics #1 at $100.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xctA_pEfLc

Definitely an interesting 25-minute YouTube video on the first Overstreet Price Guide as long as you don't mind the numbers and charts or fall asleep while listening to his analysis.  Too bad I don't have my actual guide handy as I clearly remember Action 1 being at $300 in top of guide Mint condition while 'Tec 27 was at $275 in Mint.  Noticed how close the spreads were back then as compared to Action 1 now listed at $200K in Good and at a whopping $3.8M in NM-, with 'Tec 27 coming in at $170K in Good and $2.5M in NM-.  

Of course, at the other end of the spectrum, we have the Flash Gordon Four Color 10 tied in the #9 spot at $85 in Good condition way back in 1970 and now making a monstrous move all the way up to $86 in Good condition in the 2018 edition of the Price Guide.  Methinks that this particular book has probably fallen not only out of Overstreet's Top 10 chart, but probably even right out of his Top One Million Chart.      

Hey, maybe we should all click onto this video above since we should give some props to Terry for coming up with it and show him a bit of support so that his view count can go past 138 views.  

Edited June 7, 2019 by lou_fine

[Jeffro.]

10 hours ago, lou_fine said:

I remember being lucky enough to find a dealer with 2 uber HG copies of Cap 29 and Cap 31 at $500 a pop.  When I showed them to a dealer, he told me I was crazy to pay that kind of money for books like that which will eventually go down in value once all of the old collectors die off.  Instead, he stated that my $1K would have been much better spent on the Spidey 1 which was a true rarity and would never see $1,000 again, especially since it was drawn by McFarlane who would be the super hot artist going forward.  

Is that "dealer" still in business?