Heritage's Next Event Auction has started posting books ! 31 31

[path4play]

On 10/10/2021 at 8:59 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

I don’t know why I didn’t think to post this earlier, but here are 2 similar books that heritage recently sold: the Crowley copy sold in a weekly auction, and the Promise sold in the big heritage auction, which ended a week later. Since I basically had my choice, I scrutinized them both closely and actually posted my dilemma elsewhere here on the boards. It was my conclusion that I preferred the Crowley 7.5 to the Promise 8.0, a sentiment shared by those boardies who saw my post and weighed in on it.  So which one went for the higher price?

 

 

 

 

Yea, the Crowley imo based on the scans shared.

[sagii]

On 10/10/2021 at 9:00 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Wow! 

[tth2]

On 10/10/2021 at 9:00 PM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

It's not an apples to apples comparison.  The Crowley is C-OW, which is a no-go for some collectors.  Plus, Crowleys have a reputation for not being very fresh looking, even those with better PQ.  

[Aman619]

also, Im missing the comparison as to sold price.  the 8.0 sold for more than the 7.5 as we would expect. If the Promise was the 7.5 and sold for more, wouldn't that be the expected headline of the story here?  Promise mania for an inferior bcopy?

[jimbo_7071]

On 10/10/2021 at 2:54 PM, Aman619 said:

also, Im missing the comparison as to sold price.  the 8.0 sold for more than the 7.5 as we would expect. If the Promise was the 7.5 and sold for more, wouldn't that be the expected headline of the story here?  Promise mania for an inferior bcopy?

The Promise copy certainly has inferior eye appeal. The Crowley book fetched a very strong price for a 7.5.

The Crowley copy was graded back in 2003, when CGC's page-quality standards were stricter. The Crowley book would likely get an OW or even OW/W designation if it were graded today.

[jimbo_7071]

On 10/10/2021 at 7:46 PM, szav said:

Of note for this comparison the original question was how Promise books were doing compared non ped books.  I don't know if anyone else noticed a possible recent trend, but in selling a few books over the last year there was a noticeable premium paid even for what I think are generally considered lesser pedigrees. I'd say they're getting 25-50% higher than non ped books in equivalent grade in some cases.

In the past a lot of lesser ped books seemed to get no premium at all.  I wonder if today's newer GA collectors, having only ever seen slabbed books and not many ped books raw. aren't as discerning amongst pedigrees, and are now just willing to pay more for any pedigree?

For my part I'll admit I'd generally know nothing about the interior qualities of most pedigree books relative to each other if not for comments made by more seasoned collectors on the boards.

Here's a few generally not well loved books that I sold that went much higher than I thought they would, who's strong sale prices I couldn't attribute to anything other than the pedigrees, but I don't think Lost Valley's or New Hampshires are generally expected to garner big premiums.  I don't have a large enough sample size to declare there's a trend, was just curious if anyone else noticed the same.

I've had to pay a premium versus pre-Covid prices even for non-pedigree books (with the exception of some low-grade filler copies that I've picked up.)

I picked up this 9.4 copy of Planet 39 for $4,800 (which I considered a very high price) right before COVID hit; the 9.2 Promise copy just sold for $8,400. I'm not sure how much of that is due to the hype around the promise collection and how much is due to inflation.

ETA: The price on the Rangers 49 doesn't surprise me, but even with the current market, I would have expected the Wings 102 to stay under $200.

Edited October 11, 2021 by jimbo_7071

[batman_fan]

Not in the HA auction but a good example of a 9.6 with a large dust shadow and this is likely post cleaning. Structurally looks amazing. 

[alexgross.com]

fist time i've seen such a low grade ped for a book that is fairly easy to come by in lower grades. is this really more desirable bc of the ped?

 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 10/17/2021 at 2:19 PM, alexgross.com said:

fist time i've seen such a low grade ped for a book that is fairly easy to come by in lower grades. is this really more desirable bc of the ped?

 

Same question for the 2.0 Bat 1.  This will be interesting.  Add to the uncertainty the fact that these books are going in the last big auction of the year, which is normally the kiss of death for sellers. I personally predict none of the price weakness normally associated with sales this close to the holidays.  A 2.0 Bat 1 brought $220k in the last big Heritage auction just last month, but the eye appeal was much better than the Promise copy.

Instead of vomiting forth all the preceding words, I guess it would have been easier to just say "Heck if I know"!

Edited October 17, 2021 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[jimbo_7071]

On 10/17/2021 at 3:19 PM, alexgross.com said:

fist time i've seen such a low grade ped for a book that is fairly easy to come by in lower grades. is this really more desirable bc of the ped?

 

Long term, no. Right now, yes—because of all the hype around the ped. Even books that you'd normally have a hard time giving away for free are selling for $1,000 a pop and up if the label reads, "The Promise Collection."

[Terry JSA]

On 10/17/2021 at 7:19 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

Long term, no. Right now, yes—because of all the hype around the ped. Even books that you'd normally have a hard time giving away for free are selling for $1,000 a pop and up if the label reads, "The Promise Collection."

I think a good majority of this “hype” stems from the comics themselves rather than the pedigree label in itself. A lot of these books are in pretty high grade for the most part, but overall I don’t see these books retaining their value long term as well. Just my .

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by Terry JSA

[lou_fine]

On 10/17/2021 at 6:58 PM, Terry JSA said:

On 10/17/2021 at 4:19 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

Long term, no. Right now, yes—because of all the hype around the ped. Even books that you'd normally have a hard time giving away for free are selling for $1,000 a pop and up if the label reads, "The Promise Collection."

I think a good majority of this “hype” stems from the comics themselves rather than the pedigree label in itself. A lot Some of these books are in pretty questionable high grade for the most part, but overall I don’t see these books retaining their value long term as well. Just my .  

Based upon the prices being paid for them along with the qualifying fix-it that I did to Terry's post above, I would tend to agree with both of you.  

I guess that would put the three of us in disagreement with Mitch who has stated here many times that if you don't buy now, the prices for these books from this pedigree will only go up from here once the Promise Collection books have run their course through Heritage.  

[lou_fine]

My thinking is that if this book here had come from the Promise Collection, it would most probably have received a higher grade than 6.5:  

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/baffling-mysteries-8-aurora-pedigree-ace-1952-cgc-fn-65-off-white-pages/a/122142-11182.s?ic16=ViewItem-BrowseTabs-Auction-Archive-ArchiveSearchResults-012417&lotPosition=0|0

Any bets that the bidders were betting on a possible upgrade for this copy here as it sold for the rather astoundingly high price (relative to its assigned grade of CGC 6.5) of $3,600 including the BP juice, or close to 25X the condition guide price and also multiples higher than the $552 that a CGC 4.0 graded copy was able to fetch on HA back only a few short months ago.  

[comicnoir]

What about this? Premium for Promise? First Baker art.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/jumbo-comics-69-the-promise-collection-pedigree-fiction-house-1944-cgc-fn-vf-70-off-white-to-white-pages/a/122142-11529.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

[Cat-Man_America]

On 10/18/2021 at 12:06 AM, lou_fine said:

Based upon the prices being paid for them along with the qualifying fix-it that I did to Terry's post above, I would tend to agree with both of you.  

I guess that would put the three of us in disagreement with Mitch who has stated here many times that if you don't buy now, the prices for these books from this pedigree will only go up from here once the Promise Collection books have run their course through Heritage.  

I think all of you ...including Mitch... make well reasoned points about the Promise Collection books, but there are still other angles to consider.  There's an aspect of this beyond the benchmark pedigree and Hollywood -script caliber melodrama of one brother's promise to another made before entering the Korean War.  This is more than an Audie Murphy movie and has more to do with investment capital than appreciation of comics (both meanings).  

The term Catch 22 has entered the English lexicon from Joseph Heller's great satirical war novel on no-win scenarios: “a problematic situation for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem”).  

Consider this: paying 3X, 4X or more over estimated Guide values in grade simply because something is the highest grade may on the surface look crazy, but bidders know they'll never be cracked out and compared with other books.  Auction winners are establishing a new baseline.  There may be an elephant in the room, but no higher grades in the trunk.  The real winner here is the CGC because of resubmissions of under copies for crack and bump.  It's a future Olympic sport.

And if a Promise book is graded high enough ...say 9.6 or 9.8... it's doubtful that other copies will rise high to overtake it, much less discoveries come along to better that grade. Do deep pocket bidders look beneath the billboard, excuse me, grade-box?  

My suspicion is that a lot of these books are being bid up simply because of the grade, either for highest grade bragging rights or to hook the next impassioned speculator in the queue for a profit, not because a book necessarily looks great as graded.  As long as more copies of the same books aren't cracked out and bumped up to match or best a Promise copy they'll probably continue to drive up the value of under copies, that'll in turn drive up the estimated values of the current top grades.  All purely speculation of course, but isn't that what speculators do when bidding up books?

One last point.  I'm not suggesting all, most or even which Promise books appear over graded from my armchair observer's perspective (it's just an opinion, after all), but I can't recall having seen any ...based on photos of covers... that appear under graded.  I've said more than enough for the evening. It's well past my ale time.

[Professor K]

On 10/17/2021 at 3:19 PM, alexgross.com said:

fist time i've seen such a low grade ped for a book that is fairly easy to come by in lower grades. is this really more desirable bc of the ped?

 

Heck if I know. To some people it is. To some it isn't. I think to most people here its not more desirable , but overall "to the hobby" it is and always will be. GreatCaesarGhost mentioned the 2.0 #1 that sold for 222,000 last month. Other than tape on inside cover it was about as nice looking a 2.0 as we'll ever see. I think what the Promise 2.0, which doesn't look all that great and has a detached cover , sells for next month will answer the question for the most part.

Edited October 18, 2021 by Professor K

[Mr. Lady Luck]

On 10/18/2021 at 12:18 AM, lou_fine said:

My thinking is that if this book here had come from the Promise Collection, it would most probably have received a higher grade than 6.5:  

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/baffling-mysteries-8-aurora-pedigree-ace-1952-cgc-fn-65-off-white-pages/a/122142-11182.s?ic16=ViewItem-BrowseTabs-Auction-Archive-ArchiveSearchResults-012417&lotPosition=0|0

Any bets that the bidders were betting on a possible upgrade for this copy here as it sold for the rather astoundingly high price (relative to its assigned grade of CGC 6.5) of $3,600 including the BP juice, or close to 25X the condition guide price and also multiples higher than the $552 that a CGC 4.0 graded copy was able to fetch on HA back only a few short months ago.  

I suspect that if this book were re-graded today, it would probably get a bump whether it's from the Promise collection or not. Regardless, I would be willing to bet you that the winning bidder is not concerned about an upgrade and is simply thrilled to own a beautiful book that has not been pressed and cleaned. 

[jimbo_7071]

On 10/18/2021 at 1:18 AM, lou_fine said:

My thinking is that if this book here had come from the Promise Collection, it would most probably have received a higher grade than 6.5:  

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/baffling-mysteries-8-aurora-pedigree-ace-1952-cgc-fn-65-off-white-pages/a/122142-11182.s?ic16=ViewItem-BrowseTabs-Auction-Archive-ArchiveSearchResults-012417&lotPosition=0|0

Any bets that the bidders were betting on a possible upgrade for this copy here as it sold for the rather astoundingly high price (relative to its assigned grade of CGC 6.5) of $3,600 including the BP juice, or close to 25X the condition guide price and also multiples higher than the $552 that a CGC 4.0 graded copy was able to fetch on HA back only a few short months ago.  

I agree; either the scans or notes (or both) must make a significant upgrade a foregone conclusion, otherwise it would be very difficult to understand that result on what is a common and not-especially-sought-after book.

[jimjum12]

What do the grader's notes say on the Baffling ? GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[Cat-Man_America]

On 10/18/2021 at 9:46 PM, jimjum12 said:

What do the grader's notes say on the Baffling ? GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

As a side note, I'd wager the notes are less Baffling than those of graded books today!