Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Bird]

watching my own gpa market values, things have been holding and/or dropping slightly but surely for 4-6 weeks now...down 2-5% on my admittedly small sample size # of slabs but still roughly doubled from start of this year

 

[Xenosmilus]

I think it eased up a little because of summer and covid restrictions being lifted.  My hunch is that it may pick up again if the MCU movies are good and people start getting excited about them again. I ended up selling about 60% or so of my collection.  The prices were just too insane not too.  I figure I'll buy them again if they drop but it wan't worth the risk not to sell now.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Xenosmilus

[jjonahjameson11]

America is printing money like it’s going out of style, can’t imagine prices won’t rise again soon

[alexgross.com]

On 8/12/2021 at 6:47 AM, crassus said:

My expectation for the long haul is that the market will stay strong, and my optimism about that is based on the slow build up of a lot of positive fundamentals. The first is the steady growth of all the supporting infrastructure needed to make trading and investing in comics a safe(r) prospect for many people. Its not just that a given book can now routinely be bought and sold for 10k+, it's the fact that this is increasingly accepted as sane by people who don't otherwise collect or care about comics. The surrounding culture has been evolving for decades towards greater mainstream acceptance of both the seriousness and legitimacy of comics, comic art, characters and story telling, and in a related way an acceptance of the increasing values that many put on these experiences as collectibles and nostalgia. So culture and the emergence of conventional investment infrastructure have grown together to reduce risk, increase familiarity and create confidence to support a growing market. 

While this is related to Hollywood and movie speculation it is easy imo to overestimate its influence. There is also a lot of history involved, and as the comic medium evolves and advances it keeps adding to that history, creating more memories and more historically significant books, as each new generation discovers and grows into the medium, and some of those into the market. I see the ups and downs of the movie speculation as "white caps" on an otherwise deep ocean of possibilities. I do expect the hobby and the market to outlive "movie mania", whenever that ends. What constitutes "saturation" is unclear given that the available media platforms keep expanding and everything online, all streaming services, are still starved for content. I could visualize a future where comic influenced or inspired media holds down a certain dependable fraction of the overall pool of concepts and creative writing in the entertainment industry. And finally comics are not a one dimensional trick pony, as they are also historically entangled with Fantasy, Sci-Fi and other speculative literature. Comics carry a lot of fellow travelers, and cross pollination is the norm. As long as there is demand for content generally to feed all these platforms, comics will continue to be big contributors to otherwise billion dollar industries. 

this. +100

did anyone actually think the enormous, explosive growth seen month to month between january and june would just go on endlessly? many new collectors have entered the fray, but some who came and bought just to quickly flip have left the building. that's a good thing. 

one positive about possible price dips now is a chance to buy again. although i don't see keys and semi-keys ever dropping enough to make them affordable in most grades ever again. a book i just missed for 6k last winter ended up going to a high of 15k this year. it's now around 11k. there's no way it's headed anywhere close to 6k again, ever. 

[crassus]

On 8/13/2021 at 10:45 AM, alexgross.com said:

this. +100

did anyone actually think the enormous, explosive growth seen month to month between january and june would just go on endlessly? many new collectors have entered the fray, but some who came and bought just to quickly flip have left the building. that's a good thing. 

one positive about possible price dips now is a chance to buy again. although i don't see keys and semi-keys ever dropping enough to make them affordable in most grades ever again. a book i just missed for 6k last winter ended up going to a high of 15k this year. it's now around 11k. there's no way it's headed anywhere close to 6k again, ever. 

Yeah I can think of a few that I would watch to get back into my wheelhouse as prices stabilize. I agree that a new plateau has been created, the ground everywhere has increased its elevation, and books here and there maybe, but generally we are not going back down to sea level. Those books that I still believe could experience a steady and significant reduction are some of the hyper inflated non-key run filler books, that have risen on the strength of their covers or as being part of story arcs that for some reason people now care about...eg from what I collect FF 72, FF 57, FF 47, these are books I already own but I will not upgrade until there is a correction, which I expect at some point, as I believe they are overpriced. I am using these examples because it is the run I mainly focus on, and I know their pricing history best. I am sure every run collector  of whatever title has their own lists of "why the $%*&^% is this suddenly so expensive". But genuine keys I believe will stay stubbornly expensive. 

[zosocane]

On 8/13/2021 at 11:29 AM, crassus said:

But genuine keys I believe will stay stubbornly expensive. 

I think that's right.  We will see a widening price gap between true keys and everything else.  Movie or TV show-hyped books will feed short-term speculator market for sub-$2K books, while more and more investors will see safety and growth in true keys @ ~ $3K and up.  While us collectors sit back and watch.  

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 8/13/2021 at 3:44 PM, zosocane said:

I think that's right.  We will see a widening price gap between true keys and everything else.  Movie or TV show-hyped books will feed short-term speculator market for sub-$2K books, while more and more investors will see safety and growth in true keys @ ~ $3K and up.  While us collectors sit back and watch.  

I think there is also a widening gap between adjacent grades.  It used to be a decent rule of thumb that a 9.8 will fetch twice what a 9.6 gets, and a 9.6 in turn about double a 9.4.  Depending on the book, and the scarcity of the upper grades, that gap can be much more extreme.

[kav]

they have ease up a bit.

[WolverineX]

On 8/12/2021 at 11:22 PM, Xenosmilus said:

I think it eased up a little because of summer and covid restrictions being lifted.  My hunch is that it may pick up again if the MCU movies are good and people start getting excited about them again. I ended up selling about 60% or so of my collection.  The prices were just too insane not too.  I figure I'll buy them again if they drop but it wan't worth the risk not to sell now.

Smart move.  You sold at the peak 

[kav]

On 8/13/2021 at 5:40 PM, Wolverinex said:

Smart move.  You sold at the peak 

just what krang would have done.

[troydivision1]

In reviewing my personal collection's value month-by-month I have recorded my first decrease this year occurring between 7/15 and 8/15.
Since I haven't added any new slabs to my 50 item PC it has been easy to track YTD growth.
I am utilizing eBay sold items to determine their FMV.

Jan to August        27.92% increase
January to February  .39% increase
February to March   6.98% increase
March to April         11.77% increase
April to May              7.21% increase
May to June             2.46% increase
June to July                .72% increase
July to August           3.69% decrease

[Motor City Rob]

On 8/15/2021 at 6:51 PM, umyeahwhatevers said:

In reviewing my personal collection's value month-by-month I have recorded my first decrease this year occurring between 7/15 and 8/15.
Since I haven't added any new slabs to my 50 item PC it has been easy to track YTD growth.
I am utilizing eBay sold items to determine their FMV.

Jan to August        27.92% increase
January to February  .39% increase
February to March   6.98% increase
March to April         11.77% increase
April to May              7.21% increase
May to June             2.46% increase
June to July                .72% increase
July to August           3.69% decrease

This is a great way to look at the data. You can see that the market really started slowing down after May and now is on a slight downturn. I'm expecting the August to September numbers to show a decrease as well. Thanks for sharing. 

[BabaLament]

@umyeahwhateversThank you for the data! I'm pretty sure I'm priced out of grail-level keys; I don't have the means to spend tens of thousands at a time. However, given the popularity of comic books, I'll keep reading & collecting new books, and who knows, maybe I'll get lucky. TWD & The Boys worked out alright & those books aren't all that old, so I'll light a candle & say a few Hail StanLee's in the hopes that Ice Cream Man, Cross Over, & The Silver Coin get picked up by (enter streaming service here) soon.

[valiantman]

On 8/13/2021 at 7:07 PM, kav said:

they have ease up a bit.

All your base are belong to us

[bluehorseshoe]

On 8/12/2021 at 8:27 PM, Bird said:

watching my own gpa market values, things have been holding and/or dropping slightly but surely for 4-6 weeks now...down 2-5% on my admittedly small sample size # of slabs but still roughly doubled from start of this year

 

If you really want to feel good about life, do a 5/10/15 year price paid vs. current GPA values comparison on your collection. Then factor in books that if you sold it, you’d never get another shot to buy it back, and sit back and enjoy it.

[HotKey]

A 9.6 UF4 four letter word that I can't show a pic of is on IG for $849. I got $1,150 trade value for mine 3 months ago.

[drotto]

Trending down some.  I own a few of the books that got super hot Like X-Men 1, and GSXM1.  My collection went up like 2.5 x in that period.  It is down about 8 % from the high point now.

[lou_fine]

On 8/1/2021 at 9:28 PM, zosocane said:

On 8/1/2021 at 6:45 PM, MGsimba77 said:

The still ongoing pandemic may complicate movie releases 

Definitely a risk factor.

Especially when opening weekend for even your big movies are now still running only in the ten's of million dollars with big huge dropoffs in the following weekends, as compared to the good old pre-pandemic when they were running into the hundreds of millions of dollars and also with some legs to them after their opening weekend.   

[PKJ]

On 8/17/2021 at 11:21 PM, drotto said:

Trending down some.  I own a few of the books that got super hot Like X-Men 1, and GSXM1.  My collection went up like 2.5 x in that period.  It is down about 8 % from the high point now.

But I thought X-Men 1 was the can't lose for this generation? Was going to overthrow all other SA keys? 

I am joking but I do think a lot of people got caught up in the hype. Daredevil 1 had it's number of hype men as well. Both of those are deserving of more attention for the record but when X-Men 1 starts to line up with FF1 and Hulk 1 in the same grades the money will move to the IH1 and FF1. 

 

Edited August 18, 2021 by PKJ

[NewWorldOrder]

On 8/18/2021 at 8:36 AM, PKJ said:

But I thought X-Men 1 was this generations can't lose? Was going to overthrow all other SA keys? 

I am joking but I do think a lot of people got caught up in the hype. Daredevil 1 had it's number of hype men as well. Both of those are deserving of more attention for the record but when X-Men 1 starts to line up with FF1 and Hulk 1 in the same grades the money will move to the IH1 and FF1. 

 

FF 1 and Hulk 1 have gotten a covid bump, not like DD 1 and X-men 1, but yeah I agree there is still room to grow.

Great time to buy in to GSX #1, Hulk 181, and X-Men 1 again.  It's very obvious when MCU announces the casting for the new films the books will heat once again and push higher than May/June 2021 highs.  MCU and Disney have yet to even promote these characters, wait till you see the consumer frenzy when they do.  A lot of green arrows pointing upward on GPA that day!