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Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit???
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Started by InfantTerrible,

7,293 posts in this topic

valiantman

valiantman

Posted
Posted
On 9/16/2021 at 8:49 PM, Beige said:

https://comics.ha.com/itm/modern-age-1980-present-/horror/the-walking-dead-1-black-label-image-2003-cgc-nm-mt-98-white-pages/a/40176-82438.s

 

Calling complete BS on this.

There are others over $1000 cheaper readily available on dealer sites and ebay.

Black "MATURE" label isn't available on eBay for less.

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valiantman

valiantman

Posted
Posted
On 9/17/2021 at 11:16 AM, valiantman said:
On 9/16/2021 at 11:34 AM, Gregd said:
On 9/16/2021 at 10:39 AM, valiantman said:

Here's the latest version: http://www.slabdata.com/blog/2021/cgc-average-market-capitalization-cgcamc-2020-year-in-review/

 

A regularly-updated website is coming soon.

Wow!! That is fantastic and exactly what I was thinking about. 
 

is this only run for the top 25 books? Or did I miss a link?

Expand  

It is only for the Top 25.  

I have been working on a more comprehensive list for a while and I currently have over 200 books with a CGCAMC (CGC Average Market Capitalization) of at least $1,000,000.  I'm sure there are a few that I have missed, but when you think about it, having a $1,000,000 total value (CGC average grade times number of CGC graded copies) is actually pretty tough.  All those Golden Age books worth $20,000+ in average condition are usually under 50 copies graded, so that's less than $1,000,000 total.  A few dozen certainly make the Top 200, but then it gets slim quickly.  For books worth $1,000+ in average CGC condition, you need at least 1,000 copies graded to reach $1,000,000.  Lots of books have at least 1,000 copies graded and their high grades are worth $1,000+, but their average grade isn't.  2,000 copies graded but under $500 for an average copy is less than a million total.

$100 average CGC books need 10,000 graded copies, etc.

It's a fun exercise that I've had to do by hand, but I'm working on a way to automate the whole process.

Coming soon.  (thumbsu

How about "Coming now" ? :foryou:

 

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Gregd

Gregd

Posted
Posted

what does CGC use to value books when grading (especially those without recent sales)? GPA? 12 month average? Last sale? 
 

I have 100-200 books I want graded from GA to Modern. I also am aware of QA issues- so sorta stuck trying to figure when I should send them in. 

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troydivision1

troydivision1

Posted
Posted (edited)

Apologies in advance as I don't have access to track this info myself, but was wondering if anyone has historical tracking of key comics across multiple ages.
Namely mid-2006 to mid-2012.
I'd like to know what, if any, percentage drop (and recovery) occurred as a result of the 2008 financial crisis.
Preferably not keys that could be tied to movie or TV show hype or speculation during that timeframe.
Preparing and planning to "buy the dip" just in case there is market contagion as a result of the Evergrande situation overseas.

Edited by umyeahwhatevers
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Sweet Lou 14

Sweet Lou 14

Posted
Posted
On 9/19/2021 at 3:09 PM, umyeahwhatevers said:

Apologies in advance as I don't have access to track this info myself, but was wondering if anyone has historical tracking of key comics across multiple ages.
Namely mid-2007 to mid-2012.
I'd like to know what, if any, percentage drop (and recovery) occurred as a result of the 2008 financial crisis.
Preferably not keys that could be tied to movie or TV show hype or speculation during that timeframe.
Preparing and planning to "buy the dip" just in case there is market contagion as a result of the Evergrande situation overseas.
Food for thought.

I wasn't as active then as I am now, but what I remember from 2008 is wishing for a drop in comics prices that never came.

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djzombi

djzombi

Posted
Posted
On 9/19/2021 at 3:09 PM, umyeahwhatevers said:

Apologies in advance as I don't have access to track this info myself, but was wondering if anyone has historical tracking of key comics across multiple ages.
Namely mid-2006 to mid-2012.
I'd like to know what, if any, percentage drop (and recovery) occurred as a result of the 2008 financial crisis.
Preferably not keys that could be tied to movie or TV show hype or speculation during that timeframe.
Preparing and planning to "buy the dip" just in case there is market contagion as a result of the Evergrande situation overseas.

The front section of Overstreet shows percent changes over the years, but that's by Overstreet guide value.  I still would think it would give you the information you're looking for regarding general price increases/decreases due to hype/speculation as well as the financial crisis.  

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Domo Arigato

Domo Arigato

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/17/2021 at 9:21 AM, jeffreyk said:

Is anyone following the Goldin auction with the Batman 1 in 8.0, Amazing Fantasy 15 in 8.5, and Showcase 4 in 7.5 among others?  One interesting thing I noticed is that the bid prices shown do not include the 20 to 23% buyers premium.  At least I dont think they do.  I read the auction rules and saw this.  Anyone else notice this?  Makes a big difference on the final price of these expensive books.  At least Heritage has both prices listed, the bid price and the price with the buyers premium.

I don't like their format.

They essentially have no auction preview to look at items coming up for auction.  I think they might have posted the items for viewing one day before the auction actually started.

Also, as you mentioned, they do not include the buyers premium with the bid prices like Heritage does.

And finally.....this one is a little harder to explain.  They have a 30 minute rule. 

Starting at 10 pm on the auction closing date.....the 30 minute rule goes into effect......and each lot will close after that lot goes 30 minutes with no new bids.  When a new bid is placed during this time....then the 30-minute timer will be reset and the countdown will restart.  So.....if people keep bidding......then the auction end time keeps extending out in 30 minute increments.  

The problems people were having with this system.......is if you had not placed a bid on that item prior to the 10 pm closing time......then you are blocked from placing a bid during the extended bidding times.  So, if an item you had not bid on is going cheap in the extended bidding time, and you decide you'd like to go ahead and bid on it......you simply can't.  They won't let you.  Bad for buyers who see an item going too cheaply at the last minute and want to bid.  Bad for sellers who would like to get the maximum price for their item and won't because some bidders are blocked.

Just a weird system.

 

Edited by Domo Arigato
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bpc3qh

bpc3qh

Posted
Posted
On 9/21/2021 at 10:00 PM, Domo Arigato said:

I absolutely hate their format.

They essentially have no auction preview to look at items coming up for auction.  I think they might have posted the items for viewing one day before the auction actually started.

Also, as you mentioned, they do not include the buyers premium with the bid prices like Heritage does.

And finally.....this one is a little harder to explain.  They have a 30 minute rule. 

Starting at 10 pm on the auction closing date.....the 30 minute rule goes into effect......and each lot will close after that lot goes 30 minutes with no new bids.  When a new bid is placed during this time....then the 30-minute timer will be reset and the countdown will restart.  So.....if people keep bidding......then the auction end time keeps extending out in 30 minute increments.  

The problems people were having with this system.......is if you had not placed a bid on that item prior to the 10 pm closing time......then you are blocked from placing a bid during the extended bidding times.  So, if an item you had not bid on is going cheap in the extended bidding time, and you decide you'd like to go ahead and bid on it......you simply can't.  They won't let you.  Bad for buyers who see an item going too cheaply at the last minute and want to bid.  Bad for sellers who would like to get the maximum price for their item and won't because some bidders are blocked.

Just a weird and horrible system.

 

I think there needs to be more acknowledgement that the way the sports card auctions work isn't 100% transferrable to the comics auctions. That includes the 30 minute timer, the restrictions on bidding, and the lack of previews. This first auction was fine, but if they're going to grow and have more items in each auction, changes need to be made.

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HighVoltage

HighVoltage

Posted
Posted
On 9/21/2021 at 8:09 PM, bpc3qh said:

I think there needs to be more acknowledgement that the way the sports card auctions work isn't 100% transferrable to the comics auctions. That includes the 30 minute timer, the restrictions on bidding, and the lack of previews. This first auction was fine, but if they're going to grow and have more items in each auction, changes need to be made.

Collectible gun market has some auctions that work similarly - just that the bid extension isn’t that long… more like a 5 or 10 minute window.

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Vixom

Vixom

Posted
Posted
On 9/19/2021 at 3:09 PM, umyeahwhatevers said:

Apologies in advance as I don't have access to track this info myself, but was wondering if anyone has historical tracking of key comics across multiple ages.
Namely mid-2006 to mid-2012.
I'd like to know what, if any, percentage drop (and recovery) occurred as a result of the 2008 financial crisis.
Preferably not keys that could be tied to movie or TV show hype or speculation during that timeframe.
Preparing and planning to "buy the dip" just in case there is market contagion as a result of the Evergrande situation overseas.

No data. I don't need it. Every dealer I knew was worried and they all had their best year ever. Ever since then they all had their best year ever every year besides the old school ones in 2020 2021 that didn't take business online. Dark knight and iron man were loved by many. Brought in a lot of new blood. The avengers are coming. I bought a ton of comics around that time. Lots of people did. If you didn't feel good about the market you pulled your money. No reason to put money bank. Either buy real estate or treat yourself. I know a lot of guys who bought cars and bikes. 

That said. I would give zero value to 2008 as an indication of what may happen now or in the future.

The game has changed. 2008 we still had leather helmets. Now there are so many more players. Many of them buy to make money. So many young new people. Some with little attention span, don't know what they are doing. People still had pensions. Now 401. It's in China. Housing market different. Crypto. Online trading and day trading. 

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GermanFan

GermanFan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Here is a video about the Beanie Baby bubble of 1999.

Of course this was a case of manufactured gold but when a market goes down it affects all areas, not only the obvious worthless parts. So the good stuff will be affected too.

 

Edited by GermanFan
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SuperBird

SuperBird

Posted
Posted (edited)

Of the stuff I track (basically just what I own at this point), I have noticed that the previously nuclear hot mid-low grade Marvel keys have definitely plateaued if not dropped in price a bit. 

Meanwhile mid-low* grade non-key** GA superhero books are picking up quickly (Superman specifically, but I assume this holds true for all GA superhero books). Lots of prices doubling from the last sale seemingly out of nowhere. 

And all movie and TV related stuff continues to be fire.

* High grade GA books are on fire thanks to the Promise collection
** Key GA books are always increasing anyway

Edited by SuperBird
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Gregd

Gregd

Posted
Posted

I will just say for the nervous collector that talk of cratering markets is just someone’s guess. If you have nice key issues and don’t need money, don’t panic sell based on folks saying it’s all going to crash. Some of that is wishful thinking and folks hoping to get books they missed at a fire sale. If you need money now, or bought on speculation and need money in the near future- then that’s another issue.

They may fall- but if you sell and the market goes up you may never be able to afford to buy those issues again.

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Darthbryan

Darthbryan

Posted
Posted (edited)

I’ve been watching a lot of these Facebook and Instagram claim sales lately, primarily just to see what the real world looks like in comic books - I just don’t trust the results of these big auction houses.

It seems that raw books continue to move fairly well but I have to say that slabbed books tend to sit on these sales.  The main problem is that these guys are trying to sell slabs for 25% - 50% over 90 day avg or even last GPA sale.  They’re just flipping slabbed books that I’ll bet they didn’t get at much of a discount - they don’t seem to be newly cased raw books - so for them to get profit they just need to keep pushing asking prices up.  I saw one last night where a particular books ask was 25% above GPA, and you could find the same book on eBay for well less then GPA.  I’m not sure who these people think their audience is - maybe uneducated people or collectors who don’t do their homework?  A local dealer has a really nice book that he wants $1k more than last sale, and the last sale was a high water mark.  It’s sat for over a month unsold of course.  At some point I just wonder if people are throwing out collection books with prices and they don’t really care if they sell or not. 

Edited by Darthbryan
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