Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit???

43 43

Microchip · August 29, 2022

On 8/28/2022 at 11:58 PM, DC# said:

Just to close the loop on this collectible related topic - the Mickey Mantle set a new record yesterday at $12.6M. Rare, high grade/quality items are in a market of their own….sometimes a market of one

Actually this could mark the start of another bull run on collectibles. The looming recession is going to be terrible for traditional investment vehicles, and big money is looking to diversify. The fine arts market has already been tipped as a haven.

Sweet Lou 14 · August 29, 2022

On 8/28/2022 at 8:28 PM, alexgross.com said:

spidey 35 and ff25 are great books but not even semi-keys. it's not news that GA, SA and BA keys have all increased dramatically in value since the early 2010s. many non keys have also done well since then. super high grade SA books seem to be in a niche world all their own. only a tiny fraction of collectors need to have a spidey 35 in 9.8. i think a vast majority of collectors with 30k or more to spend would opt for an ff1, asm1, or other key book in whatever grade that money buys you.

I am just guessing here but I think the only reason to buy Spidey 35 in 9.8 is because you're a run collector who's intent on putting together a 9.8 run (not that it's realistic to have the full run of course, but as far back as you can go). Thankfully I don't play in the 9.8 range for the Silver Age, but I know from my own experience assembling 9.4/9.6/9.8 runs (the grades increase as the books get more recent) that I sometimes have to chase a book and pay big to check it off my list. And of course "big" is always relative.

Since we're drawing parallels to the card market, what little I know about cards is that there does not seem to be nearly as much interest in set collecting -- at least, not graded set collecting -- especially among the younger collectors. The dropoff in value between the key cards and the commons within the same set is incredibly steep, to the point where people like my cousin (a serious basketball card collector) considers most cards in any given set to be completely worthless. As a run collector in the comics world, I've often asked him if he would want to assemble a complete high-grade set of, say, 1986 Fleer (which contains tons of "rookie" cards -- long story -- including the much sought-after Jordan card). And he's not interested at all. He does own a Jordan, and maybe a couple of others from that set, but he picks and chooses specific cards for specific players, with all the crazy variations and holograms and autographs and uniform scraps that give me a headache and make me glad I collect comics.

I know there are a lot of comics collectors with a similar bent -- but when I see a huge sale price on a non-key book in high grade, I am pretty sure that's a couple of obsessive run collectors going head-to-head. It takes one to know one.

kimik · August 29, 2022

On 8/28/2022 at 10:15 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I am just guessing here but I think the only reason to buy Spidey 35 in 9.8 is because you're a run collector who's intent on putting together a 9.8 run (not that it's realistic to have the full run of course, but as far back as you can go). Thankfully I don't play in the 9.8 range for the Silver Age, but I know from my own experience assembling 9.4/9.6/9.8 runs (the grades increase as the books get more recent) that I sometimes have to chase a book and pay big to check it off my list. And of course "big" is always relative.

Since we're drawing parallels to the card market, what little I know about cards is that there does not seem to be nearly as much interest in set collecting -- at least, not graded set collecting -- especially among the younger collectors. The dropoff in value between the key cards and the commons within the same set is incredibly steep, to the point where people like my cousin (a serious basketball card collector) considers most cards in any given set to be completely worthless. As a run collector in the comics world, I've often asked him if he would want to assemble a complete high-grade set of, say, 1986 Fleer (which contains tons of "rookie" cards -- long story -- including the much sought-after Jordan card). And he's not interested at all. He does own a Jordan, and maybe a couple of others from that set, but he picks and chooses specific cards for specific players, with all the crazy variations and holograms and autographs and uniform scraps that give me a headache and make me glad I collect comics.

I know there are a lot of comics collectors with a similar bent -- but when I see a huge sale price on a non-key book in high grade, I am pretty sure that's a couple of obsessive run collectors going head-to-head. It takes one to know one.

The focus on keys/hot covers/1st apps with younger collectors has been going on for a while and will continue. I am curious to see what the impact is on common issue prices in the future. We have already seen a bigger split over the past 20 years with key/1st app/hot covers jumping in values, and it will likely continue. With collected editions and digital comics, is it necessary to own common run books a decade from now?

Sweet Lou 14 · August 29, 2022

On 8/29/2022 at 12:55 AM, kimik said:

With collected editions and digital comics, is it necessary to own common run books a decade from now?

I'm not sure that question is relevant to collecting slabbed books. Obviously none of us are assembling slabbed runs to read them. I have all the Marvel Masterworks and Marvel Essentials that will fit on my shelves whenever I want to read the stories, but I still get enormous satisfaction from completing runs.

DC# · August 29, 2022

On 8/28/2022 at 8:15 PM, Dark Knight said:

Wow, what a price and it beat out expectations! It's fascinating for me to think that there are I believe 3 PSA 10's of this card. If this 9.5 is a $12 mil card, than the PSA 10's would have to be a min. $20 mil? I believe one of the 3 was micro-trimmed by a well-known card doctor... Investing in high profile cards such as this is a huge gamble due to the card grading companies certifying and grading micro-trimmed cards as if they were left untouched..

Since it is often discussed here about the premiums people pay for appearance in comics - this is a comparison of the $12M 9.5 to one of the PSA 10s.

Microchip · August 29, 2022

On 8/29/2022 at 2:55 PM, kimik said:

The focus on keys/hot covers/1st apps with younger collectors has been going on for a while and will continue. I am curious to see what the impact is on common issue prices in the future. We have already seen a bigger split over the past 20 years with key/1st app/hot covers jumping in values, and it will likely continue. With collected editions and digital comics, is it necessary to own common run books a decade from now?

Does it become a fixed market for non-key books? Even some reasonably collectable high grade books look static over a decade, even two decades.

The top will keep pulling away, and the rest will largely not do a lot, unless they suddenly become a semi, or full key.

Still a lot of in-between books. The category of cool covers seems to be a solid one these days. The prices on early Steranko covers have been pulling great prices.

lou_fine · August 29, 2022

On 8/28/2022 at 9:34 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Well, a market of at least two or the bidding stops much sooner!

Not necessarily so if one of the bidders is the house itself, whether it be for legitimate or illegitimate reasons.

Nick Furious · August 29, 2022

On 8/28/2022 at 10:29 PM, Microchip said:

Does it become a fixed market for non-key books? Even some reasonably collectable high grade books look static over a decade, even two decades.

The top will keep pulling away, and the rest will largely not do a lot, unless they suddenly become a semi, or full key.

Still a lot of in-between books. The category of cool covers seems to be a solid one these days. The prices on early Steranko covers have been pulling great prices.

I have a theory that the internet permanently changed the trajectory of non-key books. A part of the value of collectibles used the be the effort that you had to put into finding them. You had to go to conventions, or travel to other towns and search comic book stores. That made it meaningful to fill a run. The internet removed that obstacle to ownership...eliminating that part of the value. Now non-key books are so easy to find just from your computer. There is no longer any urgency to "buy it when you find it". Supply is greater than demand and any remaining value is really just in finding an abnormally high grade. I think this ease-of-acquisition caused a lot of collectors to focus more heavily on keys, first appearances and classic covers...books that give you a sense of urgency to buy before someone else does.

troydivision1 · August 29, 2022

On 8/28/2022 at 9:37 PM, MAR1979 said:

As I always say speculate on DC and you are more likley to be burned than with Marvel.

With its rather low CGC 9.8 population (for a 1989 Key) if Sandman was a Marvel property the condition sensitive Sandman 8 would have hit 4k or more at some point and would still probably command at least 3K Alas it's DC...

Sandman #1 with it's high 9.8 Pop is in trouble. I feel the Netflix series could NOT have been more successful and it's still free-fallin' . IMHO The essential Vertigo #1 reprint with its low print run and low 9.6 and 9.8 population is more likley to hold onto its current FMV. One sold last week in regular auction for $395 on eBay

Disclosure: I own all books mentioned in the post in CGC 9.8w - all were self submitted books I purchased as a kid. I do not sell comics, nor have I ever so I really have little personal care about whether they lose or gain value.. However future me might if he plans to retire early

Good point re: Sandman #1 Essential Vertigo

In checking eBay for the values of certain books I own (as the reprints mix in with originals in search results) I have noticed the potential for a strong ROI in purchasing certain reprints / or new facsimiles (NM #98, Hulk #181, BA #12) from DCBS or LCS and getting them graded versus trying to spec on optioned books.

I know this isn't Moderns Heating on eBay, but there is a market for graded reprints as the originals are priced out for a lot of fans.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Troy.Division

musicmeta · August 29, 2022

On 8/7/2022 at 10:34 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying ... I realize that this is the top book of the Copper Age, at least among Marvel books. (TNMT #1 is obviously way more expensive and the may be other examples I'm not thinking of.) I also realize that it will always be an all-time iconic cover and will therefore always be in demand. I'm just saying the supply side of the equation has to eventually factor in too. (See TNMT #1 above.)

Anyway I'm glad I got my 9.8 WP before the price jumped.

My 9.4 copy will just have to do.

kimik · August 29, 2022

On 8/29/2022 at 6:42 AM, Troy.Division said:

Good point re: Sandman #1 Essential Vertigo

In checking eBay for the values of certain books I own (as the reprints mix in with originals in search results) I have noticed the potential for a strong ROI in purchasing certain reprints / or new facsimiles (NM #98, Hulk #181, BA #12) from DCBS or LCS and getting them graded versus trying to spec on optioned books.

I know this isn't Moderns Heating on eBay, but there is a market for graded reprints as the originals are priced out for a lot of fans.

Prices are actually down quite a bit on 9.8 Facsimiles. It is almost not worth sending them in now since they sell for decent prices raw.

DC# · August 30, 2022

On 8/21/2022 at 7:31 PM, Microchip said:

Having a look back at the clink's prior auction results for another thread, it seems the heat in the market in the last two years is not an isolated event. And even more so, the peaks we're seeing, aren't an isolated event.

There has certainly been barrier's broken in the last two years, but prior periods of strong results The last few years have definitely have had a broader impact across the hobby. But looking back, there was a lot of strong activity through the early 2010's.

Are we in a decade long cycle, where prices boom, then cool, and the net position (outside of break out books) is pretty much the same as the start of the decade?

2022

2011

2011 1 of 3.

2022

There's one in the current clink auction, and considering Spidey is 25% of the entire back issue market, this should be a good litmus test.

Here is the result ASM #35. $14.3k. The FF was down 30% from 2011 sale while ASM was down 54%.

Gregd · August 31, 2022

Looks like high grade Warren mags are not having any issue with breaking records or just commanding fantastic appreciation. Then again- the number of high grade issues are tiny, and the cover art on these issues are iconic.

Microchip · August 31, 2022

On 8/31/2022 at 5:40 AM, DC# said:

Here is the result ASM #35. $14.3k. The FF was down 30% from 2011 sale while ASM was down 54%.

The story to take away here, is that the major keys are where you want to spend your money, if you're going to spend big.

This book is a fabulous book, and in amazing book. But the number of bidders to support bidding beyond $14k wasn't there. The 2011 sale now looks like some serious FOMO.

GreatCaesarsGhost · August 31, 2022

On 8/30/2022 at 2:40 PM, DC# said:

Here is the result ASM #35. $14.3k. The FF was down 30% from 2011 sale while ASM was down 54%.

Maybe now is the time for a little bargain hunting in SA. (I’m checking my list and checking it twice). I don’t see any GA bargains, but a clearer picture will emerge over the next few Event auctions. Here are some offbeat GA WWII covers I thought had some solid prices

Edited August 31, 2022 by GreatCaesarsGhost

DC# · August 31, 2022

I am working on a recap of both this past weekend’s Heritage auction as well as Session 1 of the current Clink auction. Since this was the first time I have looked at both at the same time - thought I would share a little chart of books that sold on both platforms on essentially the same day. If you twisted my arm and forced to choose - I would have said that Heritage is always higher........

Edited August 31, 2022 by DC#

alexgross.com · August 31, 2022

most of what i've been watching have been books that are still doing very well. this surfer1 9.4 sold yesterday at CL for over 13k. about twice what gpa has in their last sale in grade. really shows the limitations of using gpa without access to CL's data on books like this that only come up occasionally at best.

alexgross.com · August 31, 2022

here's another record price- $3,922, way over the $3,100 gpa has on this book. white pages helped.

i was hoping i might get a deal on it, but not even close.

zosocane · August 31, 2022

On 8/31/2022 at 10:43 AM, alexgross.com said:

here's another record price- $3,922, way over the $3,100 gpa has on this book. white pages helped.

i was hoping i might get a deal on it, but not even close.

More evidence that quality books (i) hang tough during market headwinds and (ii) will be poised to shine when the broader economy improves.

Edited August 31, 2022 by zosocane

DC# · September 5, 2022

Here are Session 1 and Session 2 results from the Aug/Sept Clink Featured Auction. A little different format this time as I included comparisons to Last, 90 Day, 12 Mos, and 2021 Avg. Was really interested in where current sales are relative to 2021. Was a bit surprised that for a large chunk of books here - the 12 mos average is higher than the 2021 average - would have guessed the opposite.

I also put all issues of same title in same section - but left them in order of sale between Session 1 and Session 2. So you will see a 9.8, 9.4, 9.2, 9.8, 9.6 sequence for example - the second 9.8 would be from Session 2. And if you don't think page quality matters - a Werewolf by Night #32 9.4 WP sold for $9,050 in Session 1 while a 9.4 CR/OW sold for $5,090 in Session 2.