Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Ed Hanes]

On 10/14/2022 at 11:05 AM, D2 said:

@Ed Hanes
Whoever said comic books were recession proof, clearly were basing their words on their own opinions, and not actual market data. 
 

Partly why I truly hate comic book influencers. I didn’t care one way or another before, but this past year, I hate them. 
 

I do. I genuinely hate them. They pass misinformation, typically to hype their own collections. They give false expectations to legions of people that follow their words. They have no care whatsoever about the true enthusiast at all. 
 

Sounds like a religion! No wonder I hate them. 

I hear ya

[Motor City Rob]

On 10/14/2022 at 2:05 PM, D2 said:

@Ed Hanes
Whoever said comic books were recession proof, clearly were basing their words on their own opinions, and not actual market data. 
 

Partly why I truly hate comic book influencers. I didn’t care one way or another before, but this past year, I hate them. 
 

I do. I genuinely hate them. They pass misinformation, typically to hype their own collections. They give false expectations to legions of people that follow their words. They have no care whatsoever about the true enthusiast at all. 
 

Sounds like a religion! No wonder I hate them. 

I'm not a fan of many "influencers" either, but I also believe that everyone is responsible for who they listen to and what they do with that information. If someone chooses to buy a book based on someone else saying it's a great investment...and that book tanks...they only have themselves to blame. Can't blame anyone else. Unfortunately, too many people are like sheep and give these influencers way too much power. 

[Pantodude]

Before you knock comics as recession safe-havens, we need to make sure we are focusing on the correct gains.  Of course, easier to do with a longer-term perspective.  FF48 and FF49 have given back some of the (in hindsight at least partially speculative, fiscal-excess induced) gain since the pandemic, like a lot of asset classes.  But unlike the stock market (be it S&P 500, Dow, and even Nasdaq), SA, BA and even CA keys are still way up from their 2020 averages.  Because someone referenced them, let's look at FF48 and FF49, which didn't start spiking unitl Sept/Oct 2020. 

This discussion must exclude books bought post-August 2020, which might not fare as well in relative terms, because I am trying to exclude pandemic-related shenanigans.  I don't think all of the post-August 2020 gains are suspect, and it likely varies by era and issue of book anyway, but whatever proportion that is, it would likely muddy this discussion, so let's keep it simple.  

FF48 in 6.0 sold this month for $2880 and the 90-day avg is $3,139 (5 sales), i.e., still an 83% gain from the 2020 avg of $1718 (43 sales). In case you are wondering, the pre-spike 6.0 FF48 average on 8/31/20 was $1706.  

FF49 in 6.0 sold this month for $1625 and the 90-day avg is $1763, i.e., still a 143% gain from the 2020 avg of $727.  ($800 pre-spike 6.0 FF49 avg on 8/31/20).

Compare that to the stock indices.  Since mid-2019, the approximate gains from the S&P500, Dow, and Nasdaq have been 20%, 10%, and 35%, respectively.  

So, to be fair to the recession-proof [key] comics hypothesis, we should at least wait until prices dip (if ever) to the 2020 averages, perhaps adjusted through 2022 assuming some hype-free, organic growth rate.  This would likely exclude the impact of any wacky spending since then.  For the sake of argument, let's say a 6.0 FF48 and 6.0 FF49 would have gone from $1706 to $1850 today, and $800 to $865 today, respectively (a conservative and possibly organic-like 8% increase since Aug2020).  Based on the 6.0 FF48's 90-day avg of $3,139 and the 6.0 FF49's 90-day avg of $1763, these books remain way above the hype-free estimates for 2022.   

Time will tell whether these books are recession-proof, but so far, and despite corrections to date due to pandemic shenanigans or recession fears (likely both), they are certainly looking better than the main stock indices since 2020, and way better than THE traditional haven of gold, which is at $1650/oz today compared to about $1890/oz on 8/31/20.  

Edit: I should say "whether these books continue to be recession-proof," b/c apparently, based on the many threads (old and new) that have addressed it on these boards, vintage keys have been historically.  Vets here should know their stuff [presumably ].   

Edited October 15, 2022 by Pantodude

[Ed Hanes]

On 10/14/2022 at 1:43 PM, Pantodude said:

Before you knock comics as recession safe-havens, we need to make sure we are focusing on the correct gains.  Of course, easier to do with a longer-term perspective.  FF48 and FF49 have given back some of the (in hindsight at least partially speculative, fiscal-excess induced) gain since the pandemic, like a lot of asset classes.  But unlike the stock market (be it S&P 500, Dow, and even Nasdaq), SA, BA and even CA keys are still way up from their 2020 averages.  Because someone referenced them, let's look at FF48 and FF49, which didn't start spiking unitl Sept/Oct 2020. 

This discussion must exclude books bought post-August 2020, which might not fare as well in relative terms, because I am trying to exclude pandemic-related shenanigans.  I don't think all of the post-August 2020 gains are suspect, but whatever proportion that is would muddy this discussion, so let's keep it simple.  

FF48 in 6.0 sold this month for $2880 and the 90-day avg is $3,139 (5 sales), i.e., still an 83% gain from the 2020 avg of $1718 (43 sales). In case you are wondering, the pre-spike 6.0 FF48 average on 8/31/20 was $1706.  

FF49 in 6.0 sold this month for $1625 and the 90-day avg is $1763, i.e., still a 143% gain from the 2020 avg of $727.  ($800 pre-spike 6.0 FF49 avg on 8/31/20).

Compare that to the stock indices.  Since mid-2019, the approximate gains from the S&P500, Dow, and Nasdaq have been 20%, 10%, and 35%, respectively.  

So, to be fair to the recession-proof [key] comics hypothesis, we should at least wait until prices dip (if ever) to the 2020 averages, perhaps adjusted through 2022 assuming some hype-free, organic growth rate.  This would likely exclude the impact of any wacky spending since then.  For the sake of argument, let's say a 6.0 FF48 and 6.0 FF49 would have gone from $1706 to $1850 today, and $800 to $865 today, respectively (an organic-like 8% increase since Aug2020).  Based on the 6.0 FF48's 90-day avg of $3,139 and the 6.0 FF49's 90-day avg of $1763, these books remain way above the hype-free estimates for 2022.   

Time will tell whether or not these books are recession-proof, but so far, and despite corrections to date due to pandemic shenanigans or recession fears (likely both), they are certainly looking better than the main stock indices since 2020, and way better than THE traditional haven of gold, which is at $1650/oz today compared to about $1890/oz on 8/31/20.  

Yes, FF 48 and 49 are still issues that command a great deal of attention..great covers too. I don't think the response to my post was necessarily about these prime keys..but more about newer comics, variants and the like..such as Negan Lives or some of the Gwenom v Carnage variants. Everything went crazy during the pandemic and that was probably moreso to do with money burning holes in peoples pockets because they weren't traveling or they were just bored, although I am sure speculation was there too. I went on a X-men run during the pandemic (I was bored) only to realize I just don't like X-men covers (except 101) and sold them back for a loss to buy better ASM Romita copies

Edited October 14, 2022 by Ed Hanes

[EastEnd1]

Per GPA, an FF#48 in 9.6 just sold for a record $56,400.  Not too shabby for a warehouse book with 99 9.6s (and 39 9.8s) on the census.

And looks like a 9.2 FF#49 just sold for a record $15,600... 

[D2]

On 10/14/2022 at 4:39 PM, Motor City Rob said:

I'm not a fan of many "influencers" either, but I also believe that everyone is responsible for who they listen to and what they do with that information. If someone chooses to buy a book based on someone else saying it's a great investment...and that book tanks...they only have themselves to blame. Can't blame anyone else. Unfortunately, too many people are like sheep and give these influencers way too much power. 

I know. I agree. 

 

There is no right solution. If people want to be sheep, then so be it, it's just staggering to see how many people are sheep.
The truth does hold true, where laws and boundaries are made not for the best of us, but are for the worst.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/14/2022 at 9:24 AM, namisgr said:

The bronze age comics in the Suscha News collection have gorgeous preservation of cover colors and snow white cover stock and interior paper.  It wouldn't be surprising if this copy were to blow out prior records for this ish in this grade.

 

Really? I thought the suscha books were lacking in white paged books.  Maybe I’m thinking of a different Ped. I was surprised to see that the 181 was a white pager.

[COI]

On 10/14/2022 at 5:39 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Really? I thought the suscha books were lacking in white paged books.  Maybe I’m thinking of a different Ped. I was surprised to see that the 181 was a white pager.

You might be thinking of the Savannah books. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/14/2022 at 5:41 PM, COI said:

You might be thinking of the Savannah books. 

I think you’re right 

Thanks 

[namisgr]

Suscha News whitey whites, which in my experience often fetch premium sale prices.

    

Edited October 14, 2022 by namisgr

[justafan]

Someone needs to tell all the heritage buyers. Bidders on there are still bidding like its summer of 2021 or completely ignoring the buyers premium added onto the price.

[WolverineX]

On 10/14/2022 at 7:01 PM, justafan said:

Someone needs to tell all the heritage

Edited October 15, 2022 by WolverineX

[Vixom]

On 10/14/2022 at 2:05 PM, D2 said:

@Ed Hanes
Whoever said comic books were recession proof, clearly were basing their words on their own opinions, and not actual market data. 
 

Partly why I truly hate comic book influencers. I didn’t care one way or another before, but this past year, I hate them. 
 

I do. I genuinely hate them. They pass misinformation, typically to hype their own collections. They give false expectations to legions of people that follow their words. They have no care whatsoever about the true enthusiast at all. 
 

Sounds like a religion! No wonder I hate them. 

Would love to hear about this actual market data. I nor anyone I know have ever seen a recession drop the price in comics. I remember dealers in 2008 2009 being pleasantly surprised they had their best year ever. Only drop of any I have ever seen was the month or two in 2020 with pandemic panic sell offs. 

[Vixom]

On 10/11/2022 at 8:36 PM, Humpty-Dumpty said:

The numbers are not sustainable.

You can go to any year in the history of this forum and find numerous posts saying the same thing. I agree one day the numbers will fall. What I need is the date. The year or even the decade will work. 

[mjoeyoung]

On 10/15/2022 at 12:29 AM, Thisisrequired said:

On 10/11/2022 at 6:36 PM, Humpty-Dumpty said:

The numbers are not sustainable.

You can go to any year in the history of this forum and find numerous posts saying the same thing. I agree one day the numbers will fall. What I need is the date. The year or even the decade will work. 

I think we are in uncharted territory.  From all the data I see on the GPA, the last few years have seen the largest "across the board" value increase in 3rd party graded comics since 2002. We have no data on what happens in this situation, it is all speculation.  I think there have been some good theories in here on why comics have gone up in value.  What happens now as the economy takes a severe and possibly prolonged downturn? Values are already going down on many books (Lone Star just auctioned a 9.8 UF#4 for $1605 after having a sale in July for $3199).  How low can they go?  How deep is the correction going to be? Post 1970s? Silver Age? Golden Age? We just don't know yet.

It seems obvious that the pool of people who purchase comic books has greatly increased in the last few years.  Excluding any kind of market manipulation, this is why the values have gone up.  Values are going down as this pool has begun to shrink.  How small is the pool going to get?  How many speculators and investors are going to cut their losses and sell?  How many long time collectors decided to cash out and step aside? How many collectors have been turned off by the ever increasing values and switched to a new hobby? How different is the pool in 2024 going to be from the one in 2021 or 2017?

[KCOComics]

On 10/15/2022 at 2:24 AM, Thisisrequired said:

Would love to hear about this actual market data. I nor anyone I know have ever seen a recession drop the price in comics. I remember dealers in 2008 2009 being pleasantly surprised they had their best year ever. Only drop of any I have ever seen was the month or two in 2020 with pandemic panic sell offs. 

I'm not sure I follow. We have seen many key comics lose around 1/3rd of their value in the past 6 months or so. 

Yes, they still up from 2 to 3 years ago, but prices fluctuate any time discretionary spending is impacted. 

They def dipped in 2008 and certainly in the early 90s.  I won a ton of books on eBay in 08 /09 for great deals..  I was 26 at the time and big keys had always seemed like a pipe dream. But that was a memorable intersection between having a good enough job to buy key books and prices dropping to where I could afford them.

You can argue that prices fluctuate less than stocks and recessions impact comics less, but any time discretionary spending gets impacted, comics have suffered at least in the near term. 

There are also different degrees of suffering by genre. What's been kind of remarkable to me, is that key GA books haven't really come down and in many cases have increased, while SA keys like X1, AF15, and JIM83 have all seen pretty staggering losses compared to their 2021 highs. 

[Pantodude]

On 10/14/2022 at 4:43 PM, Pantodude said:

Based on the 6.0 FF48's 90-day avg of $3,139 and the 6.0 FF49's 90-day avg of $1763, these books remain way above the hype-free estimates for 2022.   

As for many SA keys losing 1/3 of value in past six months, as I mentioned above, we need to disect the loss -- how much of it due to pandemic-related correction vs recession-related correction.  Even as overall spending is impacted, depending on that mysterious transformation (and how lasting) in our hobby the past two years, much of the remaining appreciation could stick.  Many members, including vets, expected that we have a new floor (as yet unknown) on values of vintage keys.  There might have been a permanent increase in (1) this hobby’s participants, (2) the perceived value of vintage comics relative to other asset classes due to a long overdue catching up (e.g., folks realized that if mere cards were fetching more $, then ….), (3) larger proportion of books now residing in long-term PCs, etc.  If so, the organic rate of return could have increased to reflect such new supply/demand reality, even as spending cools.    

That could explain why books like FF48 and FF49, and X1, AF15, and JIM83, remain way up since August 2020 compared to other stock indices and gold.  In my example, I used a very conservative “hype-free” estimate for the organic return since August 2020, which assumed mostly static supply/demand.  But if many more people are involved in the vintage comic market today compared to pre-August 2020, supply will be relatively tighter today, perhaps enough to offset any broader economy-related dampening in demand.   Vintage  comic keys have definitely entered the minds of many, many more people as an alternative investment, hobby, art form (or even chest-thumping), gift choice, etc., than previously, while their supply has remained relatively fixed.  

Edited October 15, 2022 by Pantodude
typos

[Pantodude]

On 10/15/2022 at 7:33 AM, KCOComics said:

There are also different degrees of suffering by genre. What's been kind of remarkable to me, is that key GA books haven't really come down and in many cases have increased, while SA keys like X1, AF15, and JIM83 have all seen pretty staggering losses compared to their 2021 highs.

Yes, very interesting seeing that.   But GA keys were much less susceptible to the spec and flipping phenomenon, or even the boredom and unused vacation $ phenomenon, so we should expect less of a correction, if any on that front.  A larger proportion of the new participants focused on SA and more recent (younger crowd than the typical comic collector?).  If so, to the extent THEIR pandemic-related spending is correcting, SA/BA/CA should have been impacted more. Add to that greater supply compared to GA books, that could explain the rest.  

The GA keys community, while smaller in participants, has also always been stronger (wealthier, on avg, than average comic collector) and less prone to volatility (due to relative scarcity but also their being better at valuing stuff with less regard to hype).  It could be that, seeing all this increased participation as of late 2020, they increased their spending on GA stuff preemptively to grab books before the new crowd did.  Because GA books are scarce, that could easily explain both their appreciation and ability to hold (and even continue to build upon) the gains now.  And that’s before even considering any enduring increase in the # of GA collectors/investors!  So it didn’t surprise me.  

I do think there are new, higher floors (compared to pre-September 2020) for most vintage keys, be it from GA, SA, BA, or CA.  Let's hope those floors are sturdy enough to weather the coming storm!  Historically at least, as some noted, there may be good reason for optimism.  

Edited October 15, 2022 by Pantodude
typos

[Ryan.]

On 10/15/2022 at 8:39 AM, Pantodude said:

Yes, very interesting seeing that.   But GA keys were much less susceptible to the spec and flipping phenomenon, or even the boredom and unused vacation $ phenomenon, so we should expect less of a correction, if any on that front.  A larger proportion of the new participants focused on SA and more recent (younger crowd than the typical comic collector?).  If so, to the extent THEIR pandemic-related spending is correcting, SA/BA/CA should have been impacted more. Add to that greater supply compared to GA books, that could explain the rest.  

The GA keys community, while smaller in participants, has also always been stronger (wealthier, on avg, than average comic collector) and less prone to volatility (due to relative scarcity but also their being better at valuing stuff with less regard to hype).  It could be that, seeing all this increased participation as of late 2020, they increased their spending on GA stuff preemptively to grab books before the new crowd did.  Because GA books are scarce, that could easily explain both their appreciation and ability to hold (and even continue to build upon) the gains now.  And that’s before even considering any enduring increase in the # of GA collectors/investors!  So it didn’t surprise me.  

I do think there are new, higher floors (compared to pre-September 2020) for most vintage keys, be it from GA, SA, BA, or CA.  Let's hope those floors are sturdy enough to weather the coming storm!  Hhistorically at least, as some noted, there may be good reason for optimism.  

Agree. As a mostly GA collector my long term collection has nothing to do with spec and everything to do with just wanting the book itself. That doesn't mean that I don't want to buy those books as far under FMV as possible or, if I do sell a GA book here or there, I don't want to sell at a healthy price. It does mean, however, that in the event prices do tank I would just continue to hold the books and any market fluctuations are essentially immaterial. I suspect this approach applies to most GA collectors so we are unlikely to see mass cratering of GA prices.

[Vixom]

On 10/15/2022 at 7:05 AM, mjoeyoung said:

I think we are in uncharted territory.  From all the data I see on the GPA, the last few years have seen the largest "across the board" value increase in 3rd party graded comics since 2002. We have no data on what happens in this situation, it is all speculation.  I think there have been some good theories in here on why comics have gone up in value.  What happens now as the economy takes a severe and possibly prolonged downturn? Values are already going down on many books (Lone Star just auctioned a 9.8 UF#4 for $1605 after having a sale in July for $3199).  How low can they go?  How deep is the correction going to be? Post 1970s? Silver Age? Golden Age? We just don't know yet.

It seems obvious that the pool of people who purchase comic books has greatly increased in the last few years.  Excluding any kind of market manipulation, this is why the values have gone up.  Values are going down as this pool has begun to shrink.  How small is the pool going to get?  How many speculators and investors are going to cut their losses and sell?  How many long time collectors decided to cash out and step aside? How many collectors have been turned off by the ever increasing values and switched to a new hobby? How different is the pool in 2024 going to be from the one in 2021 or 2017?

People have been asking those concerns for the last 12 years. Other questions to ask are how many kids who watched these movies and shows will start buying books when they get jobs? How many of them will get into comics for investment? I believe more people come into hobby than are leaving it.