Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 2/24/2023 at 9:54 AM, GrasshopperFF said:

In the meantime, this dip was made for buying! 

[october]

On 2/24/2023 at 8:54 AM, buttock said:

The worst part is that we're now "old guys" Andy.  

We have some cool comics though!

[buttock]

On 2/24/2023 at 8:29 AM, october said:

We have some cool comics though!

Worth it. 

[october]

On 2/24/2023 at 9:08 AM, Bookery said:

Except that they have always been correct!  The straw-man argument is always presented that comics (or any pop culture collectibles market) will not "crash", when no one ever made the "crash" argument to begin with.  But there is, and always will be, a slow ebb of declining interest as cultures and interests change over time.  Comic books once sold massive quantities of issues across all sorts of genres.  When I opened my shop in 1984 I still had numerous collectors for westerns, TV and movie tie-ins, Classics Illustrated, Disney, and other genres.  Most of these have indeed declined in interest since then.  Sure, I can sell these genres quickly out of the $5 boxes... but that simply prices them at the same level as a new-release comic.  Comics books weren't just about super-heroes any more than fiction novels were just about elves and orcs.  But over time the comic market keeps contracting as more and more genres fall by the wayside and new-release production numbers keep shrinking.  The same thing has happened with movie posters and lobby cards... the horror and sci-fi genres still do well, but almost everything else has declined in interest other than obvious rarities.

Most collectors, even on these boards, aren't really "comic book collectors" per se... they are super-hero collectors.  They buy comics, action figures, statues, movie-memorabilia, all tied to super-heroes.  Comic book audiences, except for very small niche independents, have consolidated down to primarily one of two genres (horror still does well also).  So yes, those that have been predicting that each new generation will have declining interest in comic books as a whole have been absolutely correct.  (And that doesn't mean any pop-culture collectible can't have a temporary resurgence... they often do). 

Young people also forget, when talking about how something will be popular "forever",  just how brief of a time comic books have existed so far.  Both of my parents are still around and they were born before there was such a thing as a super-hero.  When I was born, Superman was only 20 years old, and I pre-date Spider-Man.  And when talking comic books as a "collectible"... that didn't really take off until the early 1970s with the introduction of Overstreet and various fanzines.  All in all... a remarkably short period in which to declare something's enduring popularity, or lack of.

Well, I can't speak to the trends in 1984 (I was in pre-school at the time), but I can say that the back issue market hasn't been contracting for the last decade. In fact, outside of the 90's speculation insanity, it's never been stronger in my time as a collector. And I am not just talking about super hero stuff. I sell plenty of genre books as fast as I can get them. War sells, romance sells, horror sells, sci-fi sells. Every time someone brings up dead genres I hear about westerns. Those have been dead for what? 30 years? What conclusions am I supposed to draw from mid-grade photo cover westerns being ice cold when they have been ice cold for basically my entire adult life? Similar to the demographic arguments, if the "slow ebb" takes 50 years, why should I even care? 

[october]

On 2/24/2023 at 9:33 AM, buttock said:

Worth it. 

Gonna get old anyway, might as well have some nice scenery on the trip. 

[Brock]

On 2/24/2023 at 10:38 AM, october said:

Well, I can't speak to the trends in 1984 (I was in pre-school at the time), but I can say that the back issue market hasn't been contracting for the last decade. In fact, outside of the 90's speculation insanity, it's never been stronger in my time as a collector. And I am not just talking about super hero stuff. I sell plenty of genre books as fast as I can get them. War sells, romance sells, horror sells, sci-fi sells. Every time someone brings up dead genres I hear about westerns. Those have been dead for what? 30 years? What conclusions am I supposed to draw from mid-grade photo cover westerns being ice cold when they have been ice cold for basically my entire adult life? Similar to the demographic arguments, if the "slow ebb" takes 50 years, why should I even care? 

I'll buy this, @october...

@Bookery is right that some intellectual properties fade away over time. I've had some beautiful 1920s Little Orphan Annie books on eBay, priced below Guide, that have been sitting without a nibble for two years... And that's for IP that is still somewhat relevant in the modern marketplace (the Annie movie, etc.).

But it seems to me that that is qualitatively different from saying that the decline of Western books is a sign of impending market collapse driven by demography. Market taste ALWAYS shifts over time, and saying "superhero superhero superhero" ignores significant market drivers over the past decade like Walking Dead, Pre-Code Horror, or CGC Census population figures.

The argument seems to be that if mid-grade Ken Maynard or Hopalong Cassidy books aren't selling, then the market is doomed. But even when Westerns were popular, mid-grade Ken Maynard or Hopalong Cassidy books were not high-priced, highly sought after items. and they certainly haven't been on anyone's radar since the introduction of the Overstreet Guide, which was (let's admit it) more than half a century ago.

[Bookery]

I'm not sure why the focus on westerns... it was but a single word mixed in with other declining genres.  And I already included horror as one of the remaining popular comic genres along with super-heroes, though it keeps getting mentioned as if I've overlooked it.  But since folks brought it up... the western hero in pop-culture was extremely popular from about 1870 into the early 1980s.  That's a 110-year run.  Super-heroes will need to remain popular until about 2050 to compare, which they may very well do (though remember, the super-hero genre did all but completely collapse once from about 1948-1956, and it could be argued they were again in serious decline by the early 1980s until they reinvented themselves post-Dark Knight).  I've never said anything was imminent (if it was, I'd be pretty silly to remain in the business).  My purpose is simply historical, and to bring a broader context into how collectibles, and pop culture in general, tend to operate over time.  Myths perpetually resurface on these boards about them, and I try to infuse a bit of perspective to contrast that.  And as always, I am discussing the "average" example in all things collectible... the super-"keys", ultra high-grades, true rarities... these are always markets unto themselves.  

[Robot Man]

On 2/24/2023 at 5:54 AM, 1Cool said:

I disagree - Gen-X is a much larger pool of collectors then the Boomers even though there still are more of them.  Comics went completely mainstream in the early 90s and I don't know many 40 - 50 year olds that don't have at least a box of comics in their garage or closet.  Hard to tell who is the bigger pool of hardcore collectors who have dozens (if not hundreds) of long boxes but in terms of people who were comic book collectors at one time or another you can't beat the now 40 - 50 year olds.

I know very few people in their ‘40’s-‘50’s with boxes of comics stashed away. Sure, there are some but I bump into more people that have sports cards than comics.

And the average person with a box of their childhood collection, is not or not anymore a “collector”. 

[Rob]

I think there's a natural life cycle to collecting.  We're into certain items (toys, comics, etc) as kids, then lose interest as we get to high school and college.  Then we become adults and get nostalgic for those things again, but can't really afford them in our 20's and 30's.  So we collect when we're in a better financial position in our 40's.  Every generation goes through this, which is why collectors are typically older.  Coins have been an old man hobby forever, and will probably always be.

My concern with comics are whether kids are into them today.  Comics have changed since we were buying them off the racks.  They seem geared towards the 40+, the guys with the money.  But is the comic industry investing in the kids for the future of the hobby?  Maybe the movies are keeping them interested, but as someone else said, that doesn't always translate into comic sales.

[Robot Man]

On 2/24/2023 at 6:32 AM, october said:

Yep. I've heard "the people buying expensive comics are all middle-age, people in their 20's don't care" so many times. People in their 20's don't buy expensive comics because THEY ARE POOR. I do see some at shows and on social media, but they (logically) don't jump into the deep end until they (usually) have disposable income and a steady job to generate it. 

I followed the same path. I didn't even consider comics over $30 until my late 20's because I had better things to do (partying, school) and couldn't afford them anyway. Once I had a job/wife/kids and my drinking days were done, the hobby kicked into full gear. 

I followed your path as well. Although, I bought and collected newstand comics, most of my vintage books came from garage sales and flea markets. I moved out when I was 17 and my money went to rent and partying, By 25 I was married and had my first kid. I had VERY limited extra income. My collection really took off with the internet and eBay. By that time, I had a considerable stash of cheap vintage comics. I have most always sold stuff to support my hobby. (And still do). 

[Robot Man]

On 2/24/2023 at 7:08 AM, Bookery said:

Except that they have always been correct!  The straw-man argument is always presented that comics (or any pop culture collectibles market) will not "crash", when no one ever made the "crash" argument to begin with.  But there is, and always will be, a slow ebb of declining interest as cultures and interests change over time.  Comic books once sold massive quantities of issues across all sorts of genres.  When I opened my shop in 1984 I still had numerous collectors for westerns, TV and movie tie-ins, Classics Illustrated, Disney, and other genres.  Most of these have indeed declined in interest since then.  Sure, I can sell these genres quickly out of the $5 boxes... but that simply prices them at the same level as a new-release comic.  Comics books weren't just about super-heroes any more than fiction novels were just about elves and orcs.  But over time the comic market keeps contracting as more and more genres fall by the wayside and new-release production numbers keep shrinking.  The same thing has happened with movie posters and lobby cards... the horror and sci-fi genres still do well, but almost everything else has declined in interest other than obvious rarities.

Most collectors, even on these boards, aren't really "comic book collectors" per se... they are super-hero collectors.  They buy comics, action figures, statues, movie-memorabilia, all tied to super-heroes.  Comic book audiences, except for very small niche independents, have consolidated down to primarily one of two genres (horror still does well also).  So yes, those that have been predicting that each new generation will have declining interest in comic books as a whole have been absolutely correct.  (And that doesn't mean any pop-culture collectible can't have a temporary resurgence... they often do). 

Young people also forget, when talking about how something will be popular "forever",  just how brief of a time comic books have existed so far.  Both of my parents are still around and they were born before there was such a thing as a super-hero.  When I was born, Superman was only 20 years old, and I pre-date Spider-Man.  And when talking comic books as a "collectible"... that didn't really take off until the early 1970s with the introduction of Overstreet and various fanzines.  All in all... a remarkably short period in which to declare something's enduring popularity, or lack of.

I have most always bought comics for enjoyment and rarely paid much for them. All genres not just superhero’s. I have watched the prices go up and up every year. Just when I see a price that makes my jaw drop, books just keep going up. I NEVER thought my books would be worth anything as to what they are now. Luckily, I kept most of them. At the moment, I see a lot leveling off a bit but with a strong demand. I know the end is not even close. Someday, but can’t even predict. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 2/24/2023 at 12:14 PM, Robot Man said:

I have most always bought comics for enjoyment and rarely paid much for them. All genres not just superhero’s. I have watched the prices go up and up every year. Just when I see a price that makes my jaw drop, books just keep going up. I NEVER thought my books would be worth anything as to what they are now. Luckily, I kept most of them. At the moment, I see a lot leveling off a bit but with a strong demand. I know the end is not even close. Someday, but can’t even predict. 

I don’t think that the comics themselves will lose favour over the next few years, but I do think that the encapsulation of said comics will.   Applying the 25-year-rule to this....raw comics should be all the rage again in about 2 years. 

[Robot Man]

On 2/24/2023 at 7:38 AM, october said:

Gonna get old anyway, might as well have some nice scenery on the trip. 

I’m old enough to most of you to be your dad. Funny thing is, I only feel older when I look in the mirror. I am now as active as ever, retired and still enjoying my hobbies and traveling. Yes, enjoy your journey with no regrets. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

I thought we settled all this debate about shifting demographics a few years ago.  I distinctly remember being told that demand from the Chinese market was going to be overwhelming.

[Bookery]

On 2/24/2023 at 12:14 PM, Robot Man said:

I have most always bought comics for enjoyment and rarely paid much for them. All genres not just superhero’s. I have watched the prices go up and up every year. Just when I see a price that makes my jaw drop, books just keep going up. I NEVER thought my books would be worth anything as to what they are now. Luckily, I kept most of them. At the moment, I see a lot leveling off a bit but with a strong demand. I know the end is not even close. Someday, but can’t even predict. 

You have always been a collector after my own heart... your golden-age posts always display a wide variety of material, and not just comics.  Some of us just have an affinity for vintage items of times long past.  I'm essentially a comic book shop... that's what the customers want.  But even though they don't sell well, I still can't bring myself to abandon a selection of esoteric first editions, vintage paperbacks, posters and lobby cards (I limit my shop to paper collectibles primarily for space considerations).  I've even carried occasional items from the 16th and 17th centuries.  I do however think a lot of comics have declined in value in my 40-years of business.  Adjusted for inflation, Classics Illustrated on the whole sell for less now than they did in the 1980s.  The same with all but the earliest Disneys.  Most movie tie-ins have far less enthusiasm than they did in my early days of business.  (There was no such thing as 9.6 or 9.8 back then, so that's a different ballgame if they keep setting record prices).  And despite a huge burst in value for Matt Baker and a few hot artists, most romance comics will not sell for premiums beyond inflation-adjustments (they sell great if cheap, however).  And, of course, prices and larger popularity don't always go hand in hand.  Prices can soar on items only 100 people care about, if there are only 50 of those items to be had.  Most of us, even if we were billionaires, probably still wouldn't be spending our money on Gutenberg Bibles... it just wouldn't be in our interest-niche.  

[Joshua33]

On 2/24/2023 at 2:30 AM, GermanFan said:

Hopefully not the end times but certainly the end of post WW 2 US/Western lead economic, financial, cultural and military dominance of the world. And demographics play a major role in this game. 

Anybody who thinks the U.S. doesn't still possess military dominance over the globe, is just misinformed, or uninformed. The U.S. is still so far ahead, militarily, and it's not even close. 

[october]

On 2/24/2023 at 11:21 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

I don’t think that the comics themselves will lose favour over the next few years, but I do think that the encapsulation of said comics will.   Applying the 25-year-rule to this....raw comics should be all the rage again in about 2 years. 

That would be awesome. I used to crack out everything I bought, but it's too much money now. If I am buying a multi-thousand dollar slab the choice is I either collect the slab or don't buy it. I'd love to just buy raw copies, but they are impossible to find for the stuff I am after.

[L'Angelo Misterioso]

On 2/24/2023 at 12:48 PM, Joshua33 said:

Anybody who thinks the U.S. doesn't still possess military dominance over the globe, is just misinformed, or uninformed. The U.S. is still so far ahead, militarily, and it's not even close. 

You're correct, and GermanFan is alluding to a certain unsavory theory that has no real basis.

[PopKulture]

On 2/24/2023 at 10:28 AM, Brock said:.

The argument seems to be that if mid-grade Ken Maynard or Hopalong Cassidy books aren't selling, then the market is doomed.

 

[Joshua33]

On 2/24/2023 at 9:35 AM, Bookery said:

You have always been a collector after my own heart... your golden-age posts always display a wide variety of material, and not just comics.  Some of us just have an affinity for vintage items of times long past.  I'm essentially a comic book shop... that's what the customers want.  But even though they don't sell well, I still can't bring myself to abandon a selection of esoteric first editions, vintage paperbacks, posters and lobby cards (I limit my shop to paper collectibles primarily for space considerations).  I've even carried occasional items from the 16th and 17th centuries.  I do however think a lot of comics have declined in value in my 40-years of business.  Adjusted for inflation, Classics Illustrated on the whole sell for less now than they did in the 1980s.  The same with all but the earliest Disneys.  Most movie tie-ins have far less enthusiasm than they did in my early days of business.  (There was no such thing as 9.6 or 9.8 back then, so that's a different ballgame if they keep setting record prices).  And despite a huge burst in value for Matt Baker and a few hot artists, most romance comics will not sell for premiums beyond inflation-adjustments (they sell great if cheap, however).  And, of course, prices and larger popularity don't always go hand in hand.  Prices can soar on items only 100 people care about, if there are only 50 of those items to be had.  Most of us, even if we were billionaires, probably still wouldn't be spending our money on Gutenberg Bibles... it just wouldn't be in our interest-niche.  

Well said. I feel the current market continues to separate the "real valuable" books from the rest, based on their scarcity vs desirability. My opinion is that the overall market (specifically silver and bronze Marvel) will continue to be in real trouble over the next couple years. For one, they are not rare in any way, and now that 90% of the flippers (which were a MASSIVE boon to the hobby) are out of the way, we will have to wait til the next generation, that grew up on these movies and books, have their own disposable incomes to drive pricing back into the Stratosphere. Additionally, I think common sense dictates that the rest of the market will still suffer ( even if it's not as bad) just based on inflation. The truly rare books that are highly coveted will continue to do what they do... go up forever (sorry Warren).