Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[GermanFan]

On 11/6/2023 at 12:53 AM, VintageComics said:

Speaking solely about AF #15, which is what we were doing, you'd be totally wrong if you looked at the 2017 data, which was an inflated market build entirely on outliers but OK. 

And comics have been "dying" since this chat forum was formed over 20 years ago so it's hard to take that sentiment seriously when someone says this is the death knell and we're in the final 15 years. People have been saying it for much longer than the last 20 years.

I might be a dealer but I genuinely don't care either way. 

As a dealer it doesnt matter where prices go as long as you generate enough profit.

The price decline has to start somewhere and its naturally at the weakest areas, moderns, bronze and abundant SA.

Demographic is destiny.

The only unknown factor is the right timing. Give or take 10 years at most.

I would imagine auction houses and dealers are hoarding books in order to keep prices from falling but that brings storage and insurance costs and is dead load (like in the diamond business where scarcity is artificially produced by holding back). So at some point the have to sell/auction those many books.

The simple fact is: demographic is destiny.

The Boomers who rose ALL the asset prices are slowly dying off and the following demographic is not strong enough to hold the prices or even rise them. Besides lacking the strong interest in collecting non digital stuff (which has nothing to do with Spiderman and Hulk being part of the american folklore).

And the hope that non americans, except some europeans, collect US comics in a significant number is not realistic imo.

[MyNameIsLegion]

Comics have contracted as a medium for the last 25 years. That's an indisputable fact, measured in terms of units sold, print runs, number of outlets for distribution, pay scale for creators, following much the same contraction of all printed periodicals. Most have folded, consolidated, or converted to some online or hybrid format.  I specifically said Superheroes.  They are a fraction of the market and a shadow of their past glory. People have been talking about comics dying on this forum for 20 years because that's exactly what's been happening. CGC and slabbing was a sign of that decay. The money shifted to the collectibility of the artifact, and not the entertainment value of the artifact itself. then it commoditized the graded plastic case, and the comic itself became an afterthought.   Superhero comics largely dominate this market, this very niche market, Meanwhile, on the same forum boomers grouse about how NYCC should be called Anime-Con or Manga-Con given how much of the focus was not on American spandex heroes. That's where this has been headed for 20 years. Large corporations like TW and Disney bought the IP for Marvel and DC not because they want to be the comic book business. They couldn't care less. What made them attractive properties is their media licensing potential. Where else can you buy that much IP that cheaply to get an entire universe of characters and stories for pennies? No, authors or artists or families or royalties or expensive deals like Lucas for Star Wars or Harry Potter or Lord of the Rings. Newsstand distribution died 15 years ago, Direct sales outlets are drying up, what few brick and mortar bookstores still exit don't' carry comics. They carry Manga.  

Does anyone truly believe superhero comics can have an indefinite run? Because a relative few select copies in certain grades with certain serial number or pedigrees have sold as collectibles? Ask yourself, with any other collecting niche in the last 75 years, how many remain after their original purpose, utility, or entertainment value has expired or contracted. Collectibility is a function or nostalgia. Nostalgia is function of time and demographics and culture. BLB, Pulps, Westerns, Trains, Davey Crocket Coon-skin caps, Cap Guns, The Lone Ranger, Tarzan, Buck Rogers, Flash Gordon, Bugs Bunny, Mickey Mouse, Plastic models, stamps, Hot Wheels, Captain Action, The Phantom, the Shadow, The Hardy Boys, Nancy Drew, Classics Illustrated, Bottle Caps, Matchbooks, The Science Fiction Book Club, Arrow Heads, Coins, Rick Blaine, Tom Corbett, Tom Swift, Li'l Orphan Annie, Shirley Temple, The Green Hornet, Blondie (Not DH!), most comics strips period. all these things are fading or gone. They were produced over 50 years ago, used and consumed, enjoyed and then remembered fondly by their fans and sought after for a time (See Rule of 25) Superheroes and related comics enjoyed a pretty good run to the extent that they could expand into other media like Radio, TV, Toys, Records, Books, etc. Big Budget Movies was the biggest, most lucrative prize of all, and we got that in the last 20 years. Now the bloom has faded, and that's reflected in the tanking SA and BA slabbed keys market. Disney is pulling back the number of shows and size of budgets because the ROI is not there. that's not show business folks, that's just business period. People are ready for something else. Barbie, Oppenheimer, Taylor Swift, whatever. In the meantime, if you think that AF#15 in 3.5 is still gonna be worth 35k in 15 years, well good luck. If it is, you just lost about the same amount. 

[BraveDave]

To the above post, let’s check back in 15 years. I think AF15 remains overvalued today but willing to wager it will be worth more in 15 years…

You seem to confuse near term oscillations and trends with long-term impact. There is a huge younger demographic that is familiar with (and interested in) comics. The cyclical piece is driving slabs dropping - just like almost every single asset class out there… volumes are down after interest rates increased dramatically. Next shoe to drop is a US recession and then this will restart again in 18 months.

As for Marvel TV and film - they have produced garbage to try and build (then milk) an ecosystem over the past 3-4 years. Losing $$$ on that garbage isn’t shocking… 

[drotto]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:35 AM, BraveDave said:

To the above post, let’s check back in 15 years. I think AF15 remains overvalued today but willing to wager it will be worth more in 15 years…

You seem to confuse near term oscillations and trends with long-term impact. There is a huge younger demographic that is familiar with (and interested in) comics. The cyclical piece is driving slabs dropping - just like almost every single asset class out there… volumes are down after interest rates increased dramatically. Next shoe to drop is a US recession and then this will restart again in 18 months.

As for Marvel TV and film - they have produced garbage to try and build (then milk) an ecosystem over the past 3-4 years. Losing $$$ on that garbage isn’t shocking… 

What we also may need to factor in is the nostalgia factor of the next generation.  They have shown that people in their 30 to 40 start to get nostalgia for what they grew up on as kids. So their is about a 20 to 30 year cycle where things get hit by a renewed pupularity. So all these kids that grew up on the MCU have about 10 to 15 years till they hit the age where they start longing for and collecting what they loved as a kid.  The MCU for many should be part of that. That could certainly drive prices.

 

 

[MatterEaterLad]

On 11/6/2023 at 2:13 AM, GermanFan said:

I would imagine auction houses and dealers are hoarding books in order to keep prices from falling...

I'm not sure it's deliberate hoarding or just a by-product of contracting prices and unsold books piling up in the marketplace.

There are currently 253 copies of FF48 on eBay. (Yes, most are still asking for 2021 prices).

But I hear your point. I know a major collector who has an entire long-box of ungraded Hulk 181s.

I don't know what his endgame is for those, but he surely can't dump them all at once without dragging down prices.

Edited November 6, 2023 by MatterEaterLad

[DC#]

On 11/6/2023 at 1:13 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

Comics have contracted as a medium for the last 25 years. That's an indisputable fact, measured in terms of units sold, print runs, number of outlets for distribution, pay scale for creators, following much the same contraction of all printed periodicals. Most have folded, consolidated, or converted to some online or hybrid format.  I specifically said Superheroes.  They are a fraction of the market and a shadow of their past glory. People have been talking about comics dying on this forum for 20 years because that's exactly what's been happening. CGC and slabbing was a sign of that decay. The money shifted to the collectibility of the artifact, and not the entertainment value of the artifact itself. then it commoditized the graded plastic case, and the comic itself became an afterthought.   Superhero comics largely dominate this market, this very niche market, Meanwhile, on the same forum boomers grouse about how NYCC should be called Anime-Con or Manga-Con given how much of the focus was not on American spandex heroes. That's where this has been headed for 20 years. Large corporations like TW and Disney bought the IP for Marvel and DC not because they want to be the comic book business. They couldn't care less. What made them attractive properties is their media licensing potential. Where else can you buy that much IP that cheaply to get an entire universe of characters and stories for pennies? No, authors or artists or families or royalties or expensive deals like Lucas for Star Wars or Harry Potter or Lord of the Rings. Newsstand distribution died 15 years ago, Direct sales outlets are drying up, what few brick and mortar bookstores still exit don't' carry comics. They carry Manga.  

Does anyone truly believe superhero comics can have an indefinite run? Because a relative few select copies in certain grades with certain serial number or pedigrees have sold as collectibles? Ask yourself, with any other collecting niche in the last 75 years, how many remain after their original purpose, utility, or entertainment value has expired or contracted. Collectibility is a function or nostalgia. Nostalgia is function of time and demographics and culture. BLB, Pulps, Westerns, Trains, Davey Crocket Coon-skin caps, Cap Guns, The Lone Ranger, Tarzan, Buck Rogers, Flash Gordon, Bugs Bunny, Mickey Mouse, Plastic models, stamps, Hot Wheels, Captain Action, The Phantom, the Shadow, The Hardy Boys, Nancy Drew, Classics Illustrated, Bottle Caps, Matchbooks, The Science Fiction Book Club, Arrow Heads, Coins, Rick Blaine, Tom Corbett, Tom Swift, Li'l Orphan Annie, Shirley Temple, The Green Hornet, Blondie (Not DH!), most comics strips period. all these things are fading or gone. They were produced over 50 years ago, used and consumed, enjoyed and then remembered fondly by their fans and sought after for a time (See Rule of 25) Superheroes and related comics enjoyed a pretty good run to the extent that they could expand into other media like Radio, TV, Toys, Records, Books, etc. Big Budget Movies was the biggest, most lucrative prize of all, and we got that in the last 20 years. Now the bloom has faded, and that's reflected in the tanking SA and BA slabbed keys market. Disney is pulling back the number of shows and size of budgets because the ROI is not there. that's not show business folks, that's just business period. People are ready for something else. Barbie, Oppenheimer, Taylor Swift, whatever. In the meantime, if you think that AF#15 in 3.5 is still gonna be worth 35k in 15 years, well good luck. If it is, you just lost about the same amount. 

My following comments are sincere and are not intended to be snarky (so easy to misinterpret intent)

You made a very cogent argument and seem pretty locked on your POV - so why are you here on these boards?    Have you cashed out?   Are you still an active hobby participant and if so why?    My default assumption, which could be incorrect, is that by virtue of being on a CGC board your interest in comics has been more than just reading/collecting raw books. 

In parallel - I have very high nostalgia for vintage Kenner Star Wars figures (still have all my childhood figures and vehicles) and have been tempted to buy some high quality Mint On Card figures in the past few years.  I have resisted because I worry that group of collectors is very narrow and almost no one outside of my generation has any connection to those toys.    When I observe collectors/buyers on YT etc - they all seem to be in a very small demo that look like me (not to mention that each figure was produced in the millions and there is no good census/pop count to tell you how many exist even as graded examples).     I have said before on one of these threads - I am a bit more encouraged by the demo spread I see at comic conventions (national and local).   Still a lot of "me" but there are a significant number of young people - and also seeing a lot more women than I saw decades ago.    

Edited November 6, 2023 by DC#

[GermanFan]

On 11/6/2023 at 2:28 PM, drotto said:

What we also may need to factor in is the nostalgia factor of the next generation.  They have shown that people in their 30 to 40 start to get nostalgia for what they grew up on as kids. So their is about a 20 to 30 year cycle where things get hit by a renewed pupularity. So all these kids that grew up on the MCU have about 10 to 15 years till they hit the age where they start longing for and collecting what they loved as a kid.  The MCU for many should be part of that. That could certainly drive prices.

 

 

Why should someone being a fan of MCU Movies start collecting Comics? Maybe a few do of course, maybe most then the Omnibus books or other reprints. I assume the numbers of ppl start collecting vintage comics bc of the Marvel Movies will not having a significant effect on prices.

[Heronext]

On 11/6/2023 at 4:13 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

Large corporations like TW and Disney bought the IP for Marvel and DC not because they want to be the comic book business. They couldn't care less. What made them attractive properties is their media licensing potential. Where else can you buy that much IP that cheaply to get an entire universe of characters and stories for pennies?

I visited WB Studios in Los Angeles this summer and subsequently read up on the history of that studio.  It's complicated and fascinating.  As I understand it, some guy who got rich running a commercial cleaning company bought DC Comics, and then when WB was in dire straits in the 70s, that first company bought WB, and not the other way around!  Crazy, right?  WB ended up married with DC kind of by accident.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Heronext

[1Cool]

Marvel and DC seem to be on a collision course for stopping printing new comic books (print runs can’t go much lower).  I think the elimination of new books will be the first step in the collapse of comic book as a collectible (as we know it).  If they stopped play hockey do we believe people wouldn’t eventually stop collecting hockey cards?  There will always be people that want Gretzky cards but the hobby must have new blood and new exposure to not become model train collectors.

Who could have predicted 2020 - 2021 craziness so there is no certainty but life typically runs in cycles and the predictors don’t look great once the Boomers are gone and Gen-X retires.

Edited November 6, 2023 by 1Cool

[Dio17]

On 11/6/2023 at 5:28 AM, drotto said:

What we also may need to factor in is the nostalgia factor of the next generation.  They have shown that people in their 30 to 40 start to get nostalgia for what they grew up on as kids. So their is about a 20 to 30 year cycle where things get hit by a renewed pupularity. So all these kids that grew up on the MCU have about 10 to 15 years till they hit the age where they start longing for and collecting what they loved as a kid.  The MCU for many should be part of that. That could certainly drive prices.

 

 

This is my feeling too drotto. I had an uncle who made his entire living off of selling antique gumball machines to a generation that grew up with them. Their nostalgia for the machines was so strong that he made a very good living off of turning those old gumball machines. He has since past, and that market has definitely peaked years ago imo. However, comics, The MCU / collectibles / the nostalgia for this genre I think still has legs. However, I’m watching my grandson as a possible signal to the shelf life of this market. The movies & tv shows are great marketing that if continued to be done well, should extend the self life of this collectible market especially in regards to my grandson’s generation. However, he wants everything digital. 😕 It will be interesting to see if he has a change in heart later in life. Lastly, digital coding of products on a blockchain may (just a thought here) be the next form of collecting for a digital generation like my grandson. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Dio17

[eastbayrudy]

I have observed everything is down when it comes to collectibles. Since the world opened up again, I guess most people prefer to spend money on other things. I have observed that most new collectors now days don't seem to have the connection with cards and comics like we did. When I was a kid we collected for fun. Read the stats on back of cards, traded them, enjoyed them. Hours of entertainment. Same with comics. Now everything is about 9.8 and can it be flipped for profit. Just no love for the hobby. Nobody enjoys base cards. Only the hits. Nobody reads comics. Only want spec books to put in slabs. It really is sad  

[1Cool]

I give away comic books at Halloween and it’s definitely an eye opening experiences.  Most kids are excited to get the book but I hear so many 10 - 15 years olds say that I just gave them their 1st comic ever.  I’m not sure if very many will actually read them when they get home but I’m hoping at least a couple to make it worth my time.  

The million dollar question is will these teens get to a certain age and get an appetite for old comic books?  Will they like the characters because of the movies and desire a long box of books to read and collect?  My gut tells me not a chance in heck but who knows.  We still have a bunch of years left before we get to the point where the teens of today will need to keep the hobby afloat so not really an immediate concern of mine.

Edited November 6, 2023 by 1Cool

[Motor City Rob]

On 11/6/2023 at 4:13 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

what few brick and mortar bookstores still exit don't' carry comics. They carry Manga.  

I hope I didn't take this quote out of context, but what brick and mortar stores do you visit??? At least in Michigan, the ones that do the best are the ones that carry the biggest selection of back issues and wall books, among other things (toys, cards, Manga, etc.). The stores that have tried surviving with only Manga, Pops, and new release comics...die a slow death. 

Again, what comic stores do you go to that don't have comics??? I would not consider those "comic" stores. 

 

Edit - Sorry. Read it wrong. Bookstores. Not comic stores.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Motor City Rob

[VintageComics]

On 11/6/2023 at 4:13 AM, GermanFan said:

As a dealer it doesnt matter where prices go as long as you generate enough profit.

Anybody who understands business and economy understands this.

You can tell who is invested in their argument. I remember 15 years ago when people starting pumping stocks on here when the Marvel movies took off. It was ridiculously obvious who had a vested interest and who didn't.

You may as well call the Movie Forum the Comic Book Stock Exchange because IMMO that's the main reason it's become so popular.

 

[thehumantorch]

On 11/6/2023 at 10:46 AM, Motor City Rob said:

I hope I didn't take this quote out of context, but what brick and mortar stores do you visit??? At least in Michigan, the ones that do the best are the ones that carry the biggest selection of back issues and wall books, among other things (toys, cards, Manga, etc.). The stores that have tried surviving with only Manga, Pops, and new release comics...die a slow death. 

Again, what comic stores do you go to that don't have comics??? I would not consider those "comic" stores. 

To be fair Rob, I believe he said brick and mortar bookstores not comic stores.

And that gets back to the idea that new comics are rarely for sale at bookstores or drugstores or anywhere besides specialty comic shops.  My niece, who is about 35, was surprised when  I told her I was going to a comic store.  Her exact quote was 'they still sell new comics?'.

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by thehumantorch

[MAR1979]

On 10/30/2023 at 9:48 PM, alexgross.com said:

i'm going to go on record as saying that i was wrong about what i thought the extent of the drop would be post covid bubble. i expected prices (SA mostly is what i pay attention to) to come down some, but not as far as they appear to have come. and they continue to drop. some people said that prices would drop to pre-2019 levels, which seemed unlikely to me. but some or many books certainly have done so. 

i'd like to say that i think things will stabilize soon, but with almost everything in our economy, as well as the global political situation, totally up in the air right now, there's no good reason to be optimistic. 

i wish i was wealthier, i would be buying books all the time now. no one knows where the bottom will be, but i don't know why we would be there yet, at least for non mega keys. 

The bigger the bubble, the bigger the burst!

[MAR1979]

On 11/6/2023 at 12:55 PM, VintageComics said:

Anybody who understands business and economy understands this.

You can tell who is invested in their argument. I remember 15 years ago when people starting pumping stocks on here when the Marvel movies took off. It was ridiculously obvious who had a vested interest and who didn't.

You may as well call the Movie Forum the Comic Book Stock Exchange because IMMO that's the main reason it's become so popular.

 

Yep and less and less will fall for the same tripe again. Perhaps that is why no posts from Matt Tuck and his ilk so far this month      Anyone can look like a "genius" in a bubble. Those with actual business acumen will simply adapt to a sinking market with the new norms those who don't will fade away...

Cash flow is king!
 

Edited November 6, 2023 by MAR1979

[drotto]

On 11/6/2023 at 11:02 AM, GermanFan said:

Why should someone being a fan of MCU Movies start collecting Comics? Maybe a few do of course, maybe most then the Omnibus books or other reprints. I assume the numbers of ppl start collecting vintage comics bc of the Marvel Movies will not having a significant effect on prices.

No saying, they will collect comics or read them on a regular basis.  The modern comic industry is in an abysmal state currently. I view key comics as separate from reading comics. The have a pop culture and in fact culture aspect to them that is separate from the medium. If you are a massive Spider-Man fan, and never read a floppy, his first appearance has a cool factor and nostalgic factor because it is the genesis for a character they love, it just happens to be a comic. The books that achieve that status level have or potentially have broader appeal then just people who collect comics.

 

I think there will always be an appetite for physical media.  Look at the small, but noticeable uptick in people of all ages collecting vinyl, or the fact the books themselves have not gone away, despite people talking about their demise for 15 plus years. I do think it will more and more become keys books will keep value. But collecting longboxes of entire series will go away.  I do however take some slice in the fact that comics stores claim back issue sales are still good even thriving.

 

My final though is golden age books.  Now I realize much of their value is based on scarcity,  but the bulk of people collecting them did not read them growing up, and do not have that childhood connection. Yet they still have a strong younger fanbase, and have retained value. So that potential and hope is there.  I see many millennials buying comics at cons.

[VintageComics]

On 11/6/2023 at 4:13 AM, GermanFan said:

Demographic is destiny.

People worry more about how the demographic will affect their hobby than the rest of the world. 

Kind of silly because if you really think about it we're headed into catastrophic waters based on demographics and things like health care in the West that may collapse Western civilization but nobody cares. 

But when it comes to comics we all care.

 

I've been on the "demographic is destiny drum beat ever since the economy collapsed in 2007-8. That was my late 30s and it was about the time I REALLY started paying attention to the world. Before that I was too busy raising kids. 

The most powerful minds in our hobby have been discussing "demographic is destiny" in the Gold is $500 thread in the WC for over 15 years now and not a SINGLE ONE has been fully accurate. Along the way you hit a few wins but over all, human nature is such and variables are so myriad that nobody will ever be able to predict any market with precision. 

On 11/6/2023 at 11:26 AM, 1Cool said:

Marvel and DC seem to be on a collision course for stopping printing new comic books (print runs can’t go much lower).

 

On 11/6/2023 at 4:13 AM, MyNameIsLegion said:

Does anyone truly believe superhero comics can have an indefinite run?

Nope. NOTHING is indefinite. Not even death, IMO. 

But most people who have already factored in the demise sound exactly like the people who did the same 5, 10 and 20 years ago on this very forum (or 50 years ago if you're that old - because that's how long people have been talking about comics being too expensive in my lifetime). 

Imma say at some point it's all going to go away, but literally NOBODY knows when.

These are the same posts that I've been reading for 20 years. I even GENUINELY believed the collapse was going to happen in 2010 as we were waiting for a massive credit crunch post 2007-08 and even told my partner at the time that. 

Didn't happen. 

No person is able to predict the future no matter the field: stocks, weather, comics - anything. 

I'm done trying to predict, especially after reading about the same thing over and over for 20 years from 100s of boardies. It's a fool's errand. 

Edited November 6, 2023 by VintageComics

[Motor City Rob]

On 11/6/2023 at 1:02 PM, thehumantorch said:

To be fair Rob, I believe he said brick and mortar bookstores not comic stores.

And that gets back to the idea that new comics are rarely for sale at bookstores or drugstores or anywhere besides specialty comic shops.  My niece, who is about 35, was surprised when  I told her I was going to a comic store.  Her exact quote was 'they still sell new comics?'.

 

Yep. Sure did. Thanks for pointing that out.