Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Dark Knight]

Looks like the GRR of key silver age books are a better investment than the originals

[VintageComics]

On 12/3/2023 at 10:50 PM, COI said:

The market isn't some monolithic thing that you can encapsulate with some perfect set of books or data; it's heavily segmented. Just the fact that we're sticking to certified books here ignores probably 80% or more of comic sales. Sales data is best used to track the prices on individual books at specific grades, mostly certified to get some sort of consistency; collecting data on a range of books and trying to draw a conclusion about the market as a whole just doesn't work, because there are too many books and too many variables surrounding those books. Even when you're talking individual books at specific grades, there are other variables like the venue they're sold in, page quality/eye appeal, etc. And when you get books that trade only a few times a year or even less frequently than that, you can't really conclude much of anything about "the market". 

That said, I still like looking at data, and I appreciate everyone's efforts at compiling it here. 

Data I would love to have is how much of the market is buying for the long term vs the short term, but that would be impossible to gather. I tend to be less concerned with prices falling as I am with how often books trade hands. It's telling to me that there has already been enough turnover on the Promise Collection to track 1 million in losses. If you want long term health, you want to see as much 'buying for keeps' as possible. 

Did I mention that I love it when you post? 

[mjoeyoung]

On 12/3/2023 at 8:50 PM, COI said:

The market isn't some monolithic thing that you can encapsulate with some perfect set of books or data; it's heavily segmented. Just the fact that we're sticking to certified books here ignores probably 80% or more of comic sales. Sales data is best used to track the prices on individual books at specific grades, mostly certified to get some sort of consistency; collecting data on a range of books and trying to draw a conclusion about the market as a whole just doesn't work, because there are too many books and too many variables surrounding those books. Even when you're talking individual books at specific grades, there are other variables like the venue they're sold in, page quality/eye appeal, etc. And when you get books that trade only a few times a year or even less frequently than that, you can't really conclude much of anything about "the market". 

That said, I still like looking at data, and I appreciate everyone's efforts at compiling it here. 

Data I would love to have is how much of the market is buying for the long term vs the short term, but that would be impossible to gather. I tend to be less concerned with prices falling as I am with how often books trade hands. It's telling to me that there has already been enough turnover on the Promise Collection to track 1 million in losses. If you want long term health, you want to see as much 'buying for keeps' as possible. 

I agree with you that the market isn't a monolith, but I disagree that you cannot draw conclusions about the overall market as a whole from a portion of the data.  The data shows you where the overall market is trending. You don't need to know EVERY variable to see a trend, just the ones making the most impact. It lets you make an educated guess about short term values.

Though it is only possible to show a portion of the data in this forum, any comic that you individual search on the GPA gives a pretty good snapshot of what is happening across grades.

Even in this image I cut off the bottom and top and didn't show signed, qualified or restored books.

From the main page you can click on each grade and see a list of every sale in chronological order for every year.  The data for 6.5s goes back to 2002.

When you start seeing results like this on almost every book you look up, you can start to form a conclusion.

 

So far, some portions of the market have been immune from the downturn.  Can I make an educated guess, based on the data, as to whether this will this continue?  I think I can.

If you look at GA books where there is enough available data, like some PCH and the Frazetta Famous Funnies, you can see that a lot of the runup in value coincided with, and was just as extreme as, the runup in SA, BA, etc. Is there something fundamentally different about this segment that would let it escape the forces affecting the broader market?  There is a smaller supply and it is possible the allure of GA has increased the population of collectors and therefore demand.  Are all these new collectors or investors going to stick around?  With a downward trend in the overall market, my guess would be no.  I think these segments are as close to a "top" as you can get.  Can prices go up from here? Of course, but what is more likely?  I think if you are buying here, you are more than likely paying a higher price, than if you waited.  At worst, I think values are going to plateau.

For example, CGC #3765241007, a 3.0 graded copy of Famous Funnies #213, sold for $2k in 2021, and then $4300 in 2022 and finally $3305 in 2023.  The 8.0 grade, after skyrocketing from $6K in 2018 to $20K in 2022, sold this year for $19K.  This book looks to have peaked.

[VintageComics]

On 12/4/2023 at 7:37 PM, mjoeyoung said:

but I disagree that you cannot draw conclusions about the overall market as a whole from a portion of the data. 

You're basically saying you can extrapolate from a few books and determine the direction of the market but that's bad math and it's everything we've been speaking against in here.

How do you account for the swaths of people who keep paying more for their books this month than last? 

On 12/4/2023 at 7:37 PM, mjoeyoung said:

This book looks to have peaked.

Not peaked. Plateaued or corrected. You have no idea what the future holds. 

What would be more beneficial would be to try to divide the market into segments, and then figure out which segments are rising, which are falling and which haven't changed - something akin to a Meta-analysis of the data, but even that is tough to do without writing algorithms and using a statistician or something similar. It would take some real "know how" to do that. 

[DC#]

On 12/3/2023 at 7:50 PM, COI said:

The market isn't some monolithic thing that you can encapsulate with some perfect set of books or data; it's heavily segmented. Just the fact that we're sticking to certified books here ignores probably 80% or more of comic sales. Sales data is best used to track the prices on individual books at specific grades, mostly certified to get some sort of consistency; collecting data on a range of books and trying to draw a conclusion about the market as a whole just doesn't work, because there are too many books and too many variables surrounding those books. Even when you're talking individual books at specific grades, there are other variables like the venue they're sold in, page quality/eye appeal, etc. And when you get books that trade only a few times a year or even less frequently than that, you can't really conclude much of anything about "the market". 

That said, I still like looking at data, and I appreciate everyone's efforts at compiling it here. 

Data I would love to have is how much of the market is buying for the long term vs the short term, but that would be impossible to gather. I tend to be less concerned with prices falling as I am with how often books trade hands. It's telling to me that there has already been enough turnover on the Promise Collection to track 1 million in losses. If you want long term health, you want to see as much 'buying for keeps' as possible. 

Here are two examples of volume of transactions.    First image is ASM #300 in 9.8 - second is FF #48 in 6.0 (most common grade on census).    In both cases, volume has been steady or increasing as prices declined.   Both are trading at a much higher frequency than they were in the early 2010s.    

It should also be noted that I assume GPA has been adding outlets to their sales info pipeline over the years - that would be good to know as well.    Some of the growth since GPA launched has to be via the increase in data collection. 

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by DC#

[DC#]

On 12/4/2023 at 5:05 PM, VintageComics said:

You're basically saying you can extrapolate from a few books and determine the direction of the market but that's bad math and it's everything we've been speaking against in here.

Actually - that is exactly how all research works.  You don't have to poll all Americans to find out how many prefer Coke vs Pepsi.   You just need a representative sample.    It is valid to question if any list compiled, mine or others is a representative sample (people were also questioning Swaglehaus' analysis based on how he was using Top 100 books sold in each era) either for books included or from sales platform info captured.    I think the argument that GPA is only capturing Heritage, MCS, EBay, and a few other spots is more valid for questioning the sample due to limited section of sales outlets (LCS, shows, IG, etc) than the key vs non-key title.  

And without data collection on raw sales everything is anecdotal.   No reason to even fight about it because there is no way to prove or disprove anything.   

[VintageComics]

On 12/4/2023 at 8:16 PM, DC# said:

Actually - that is exactly how all research works.  You don't have to poll all Americans to find out how many prefer Coke vs Pepsi.   You just need a representative sample.    It is valid to question if any list compiled, mine or others is a representative sample (people were also questioning Swaglehaus' analysis based on how he was using Top 100 books sold in each era) either for books included or from sales platform info captured.    I think the argument that GPA is only capturing Heritage, MCS, EBay, and a few other spots is more valid for questioning the sample due to limited section of sales outlets (LCS, shows, IG, etc) than the key vs non-key title.  

And without data collection on raw sales everything is anecdotal.   No reason to even fight about it because there is no way to prove or disprove anything.   

Right. I'm well aware of how data sampling works in many fields, like in polling and in Meta analysis. 

I should have been more clear in stating that it matters WHICH data you sample, and how many different samples you have. 

We all know data can be misused from poor samples or not a broad enough sampling. 

That's why I stated earlier that filtering auction results in one auction, to say 9.8s and highest graded and capturing all sales from that segment would be a decent representation of the high grade market. 

Also, I disagree that GPA is 'only' capturing those sites (and a few others) invalidates that data. Those are 3 of the largest volume sellers in the entire hobby and give you a massive cross section of material to work from. Probably the largest cross section of data you will find anywhere.

I think we're on the same page overall. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by VintageComics

[DC#]

On 12/4/2023 at 5:26 PM, VintageComics said:

Right. I'm well aware of how data sampling works in many fields, like in polling and in Meta analysis. 

I should have been more clear in stating that it matters WHICH data you sample, and how many different samples you have. 

We all know data can be misused from poor samples or not a broad enough sampling. 

That's why I stated earlier that filtering auction results in one auction, to say 9.8s and highest graded and capturing all sales from that segment would be a decent representation of the high grade market. 

Also, I disagree that GPA is 'only' capturing those sites (and a few others) invalidates that data. Those are 3 of the largest volume sellers in the entire hobby and give you a massive cross section of material to work from. Probably the largest cross section of data you will find anywhere.

I think we're on the same page overall. 

insert thumbs up emoji (they could really use a new suite of emojis - can you imagine what would happen if the poop emoji was available?)

[CGC Mike]

On 12/4/2023 at 9:53 PM, DC# said:

can you imagine what would happen if the poop emoji was available?)

Yes.  That's why there isn't one.  

[KCOComics]

On 12/4/2023 at 9:55 PM, CGC Mike said:

Yes.  That's why there isn't one.  

If I could add emojis to your posts, this one would have gotten a laughing face. 

[VintageComics]

On 12/4/2023 at 11:04 PM, KCOComics said:

If I could add emojis to your posts, this one would have gotten a laughing face. 

Wait, does that mean that everyone thinks I'm funny because they keep adding those emojis to my posts? 

[KCOComics]

On 12/4/2023 at 11:10 PM, VintageComics said:

Wait, does that mean that everyone thinks I'm funny because they keep adding those emojis to my posts? 

I think your often funny.  

And I'm not even saying that in a sarcastic or insulting one. (I realized if left open to interpretation, that could be insulting.. no malice intended). 

[thehumantorch]

On 12/4/2023 at 9:04 PM, KCOComics said:

On 12/4/2023 at 7:55 PM, CGC Mike said:

Yes.  That's why there isn't one.  

If I could add emojis to your posts, this one would have gotten a laughing face. 

Could we all agree on one current emoji to substitute for a pooop emoji?

[DC#]

This one will be a fun to watch.   Lots of amazing books coming up in the Jan Signature auction at Heritage    Superman 1 and Batman 1 in 7.0, Showcase 4 9.6, Hulk 1 9.2, even a House of Secrets 92 in 9.8

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by DC#

[COI]

On 12/4/2023 at 7:37 PM, mjoeyoung said:

I agree with you that the market isn't a monolith, but I disagree that you cannot draw conclusions about the overall market as a whole from a portion of the data.  The data shows you where the overall market is trending. You don't need to know EVERY variable to see a trend, just the ones making the most impact. It lets you make an educated guess about short term values.

Though it is only possible to show a portion of the data in this forum, any comic that you individual search on the GPA gives a pretty good snapshot of what is happening across grades.

Even in this image I cut off the bottom and top and didn't show signed, qualified or restored books.

From the main page you can click on each grade and see a list of every sale in chronological order for every year.  The data for 6.5s goes back to 2002.

When you start seeing results like this on almost every book you look up, you can start to form a conclusion.

 

So far, some portions of the market have been immune from the downturn.  Can I make an educated guess, based on the data, as to whether this will this continue?  I think I can.

If you look at GA books where there is enough available data, like some PCH and the Frazetta Famous Funnies, you can see that a lot of the runup in value coincided with, and was just as extreme as, the runup in SA, BA, etc. Is there something fundamentally different about this segment that would let it escape the forces affecting the broader market?  There is a smaller supply and it is possible the allure of GA has increased the population of collectors and therefore demand.  Are all these new collectors or investors going to stick around?  With a downward trend in the overall market, my guess would be no.  I think these segments are as close to a "top" as you can get.  Can prices go up from here? Of course, but what is more likely?  I think if you are buying here, you are more than likely paying a higher price, than if you waited.  At worst, I think values are going to plateau.

For example, CGC #3765241007, a 3.0 graded copy of Famous Funnies #213, sold for $2k in 2021, and then $4300 in 2022 and finally $3305 in 2023.  The 8.0 grade, after skyrocketing from $6K in 2018 to $20K in 2022, sold this year for $19K.  This book looks to have peaked.

I don't really disagree with anything you're saying. I think my main point, which I don't think I was clear about, is that this hobby is so segmented that no matter what conclusion is drawn from any particular set of data posted, someone will inevitably chime in with sales of different books or maybe a different strata of similar books to counter that drawn conclusion. If you look back in this thread, it has happened over and over. That's where I think the discussion is mostly moot. There are so many different books and data points that you almost have free reign to make any kind of argument you want to make about the state of the market. When low grade copies of a certain book are down, people will point to high grade copies not getting hit as hard. Sometimes it's the reverse, where the 9.8 tanks, but low grade copies are humming along. Low grade BA keys, as an example, is a different segment than high grade bronze keys; high grade bronze keys, I would argue, is then an all together different market than top census/9.8 BA keys, and so on.

So you can see patterns and trends, and certainly the ocean of red we've been seeing in DC#'s charts can tell us something, but it's also really easy to both generalize AND to get overly granular in our assessments. Then you add layers of confirmation bias on top of that, and the conversations go off into the weeds. Hence the never ending back and forth, with people either complaining that the books they're trying to buy are still strong, or the books they're selling are all going to 0.

Edited December 5, 2023 by COI

[COI]

On 12/5/2023 at 12:28 AM, DC# said:

This one will be a fun to watch.   Lots of amazing books coming up in the Jan Signature auction at Heritage    Superman 1 and Batman 1 in 7.0, Showcase 4 9.6, Hulk 1 9.2, even a House of Secrets 92 in 9.8

 

Interesting. Especially considering who the current(former?) owner is(was?). Wonder if some big-timers are cashing out?

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by COI

[MyNameIsLegion]

@CGC Mike could we have this instead?

[MyNameIsLegion]

On 12/4/2023 at 8:53 PM, DC# said:

insert thumbs up emoji (they could really use a new suite of emojis - can you imagine what would happen if the poop emoji was available?)

hey man, we got a buncha new one's when Mike started that I shared and campaigned for that have spruced up the joint considerably from the static list that hadn't changed in a decade!  

[kimik]

On 12/4/2023 at 9:23 PM, thehumantorch said:

Could we all agree on one current emoji to substitute for a pooop emoji?

[kimik]

On 12/4/2023 at 10:56 PM, COI said:

On 12/4/2023 at 10:28 PM, DC# said:

This one will be a fun to watch.   Lots of amazing books coming up in the Jan Signature auction at Heritage    Superman 1 and Batman 1 in 7.0, Showcase 4 9.6, Hulk 1 9.2, even a House of Secrets 92 in 9.8

 

Expand  

Interesting. Especially considering who the current(former?) owner is(was?). Wonder if some big-timers are cashing out?

If they are cashing out now they waited too long and missed the Covid/Crypto/Sportscardbros fueled peak, but they should still do very well if the books were purchased pre-2019.