The Future of Golden Age comic book collecting post 2021: Blackstone, Promise and Beyond: The great unknown. 1 1

[Mmehdy]

On 8/1/2021 at 9:54 AM, Pantodude said:

Howdy. Just want to make sure I'm not misconstruing the recent sentiment expressed on the GA boards  FWIW, I'm pretty much done w/ my permanent PC (mutli-age, but mostly SA), so this is purely educational for me. That said, if I could do it all again, I would have more GA regardless of expected financial performance b/c I like to have cool stuff!   Anyway, post-Promise books, are folks now more enthusiastic about the long-term GA market generally (i.e., including non-pedigree and lower-grade GA books) compared to SA, BA, and CA keys?   

Prior to June, I thought the general consensus was that while GA keys in general could appreciate just fine over the long-term, they were unlikely to fare as well overall as SA, BA, and CA keys due to changing/younger buyers and/or pop culture.  Isn't it true that as of late 2020/early 2021, folks on these very boards were lamenting the evidence that GA's heyday was over (for whatever reason, e.g., older collectors being phased out by a group who cared less for the older stuff and/or dwindling relevance to pop culture, etc.).  Those folks pointed out (correctly?) that auction results and other published sales of popular GA genres, including PCH, early Cap America Comics, early All Star Comics, Startling Comics, etc) were cooling off and that one could expect better long-term gains from holding SA, BA, and CA  keys?   Folks noted that the most popular GA genres (PCH, early Cap, robot covers, etc) were only creeping up or flat since 2018/2019 compared to the gains by SA, BA, and CA keys since 2019.  

Fast forward to today, and the only GA-specific thing that has happened in the GA market is the Promise Collection.  So what does THAT mean about the future of the GA market in general?  It is one thing to say that ALL vintage books (GA, SA, BA, CA, etc) are now in higher demand as alternative investments, in which case GA's recent relative underperformance (compared to SA, BA, and CA keys) would remain true going forward long-term.  In other words, in that scenario, GA would still be good to hold, just not as lucrative as more recent vintage key books.  It is another thing to suggest that GA keys in general are now suddenly better long-term investments than SA, BA, or CA keys.    

If the latter is what boardies are saying, what is the basis for that?  Unless the substance of pop culture has changed overnight, shouldn't the sentiment expressed on these boards prior to the Promise books (i.e., prior to June 2021) remain unchanged?   I am assuming that Promise books are just another (albeit larger) instance of niche phenomena like other pedigrees and even AC1 or Tec27, whose valuations, no matter how lofty and/or exponential in growth, should have little effect on overall GA market valuations.  

In short, assuming GA in general remains a good investment long-term (I don't doubt that!), are folks expecting GA keys to outperform SA, BA, and CA keys in general despite the cooling-off that we saw during the past two years before the Promise books (as per folks on these boards, as noted; I didn't research this myself) ?   If so, why?   

 

Great post>

The long term GA market is rock solid, with the very limited supply as opposed to the SA market, which is bigger in size but material more available especially at the right price. That is the difference between GA and SA markets, somebody could come into the GA market promise to pay very high prices and a lot of serious GA collectors would not budge or accept. I am not saying GA is better than SA..I am saying it is different. The Promise collection has created more attention and focus on the GA comic book market in general and collectors see the rarity and age and sometimes graphic differences between Gold and Silver. As a personal preference I like GA over SA, even though I bought all the SA keys and grew up with them. But once introduced to GA and especially classic GA....I was hooked.

 The promise collections effect on the overall GA market will be felt for a very long time. The difference between the Chuch collection or SF is that and the current Promise collection is complete and total documentation as to each book, each condition, each sale price with total 100% access by simply looking on the HA.com Website. This documentation will provide an unparalleled resource which will be at every GA/SA comic book collector and every GA/SA comic book investor or both. The SF/Chuch collections were sold in fragments and have come on the market in the same way they were sold. John V gave it a heck of shot to try to get some of the great GA collection back together and has been recognized by the CGC as a TCBC and contributor to the comic book world.

There is a trickle down effect of these Promise book prices, now that they have the hit the market with a splash. GA comic book collectors will no longer be willing to let those under copies go cheap, they will have access to the same data as the buyers. However, this raise in GA prices is not just the Promise collection but  all of Wall Street types or hedge fund investors, or just plain crypto millionaires coming into the market, especially of Ultra key GA books and Ultra high grade GA books. A  9.6  or 9.8 GA book is a miracle period...and we have a very very rare and unusual time in which we are going see several thousand hit the market in the next 18 months. I think both SA and GA will both perform well, take you pick, and buy what you like, enjoy for the comic book itself, it's history and if lucky some personal meaning attached. A 3.25M GA book sale makes headlines, good for all TCBC.

 There is no one answer to justify the "Basis" of future price growth , it is a multitude of various media driven culture which is here to stay, a once in a lifetime GA collection kept in the memory of a military hero who died for this county, it is an influx of new buyers, new collectors, and new investors breeding  new life into the GA comic book world.

 I say one word 'AMEN"

 

Edited August 2, 2021 by Mmehdy

[lou_fine]

For all those who were worried about Blackstone coming in and making all sorts of changes to CGC, they probably got much bigger fish to fry.  

Especially when the CGC/CCS portion of the CCG operations they spent $500M on is just a very small slice of the whole CCG pie.  Especially since they now gone into a strategic partnership with AIG after that and apparently they just threw another $900M into a media-backed company to purchase the Hello Sunshine operations from Reese Witherspoon.  

So, for all you worry warts here, I am sure that CGC/CCS is as much on their operational radar screen as another grain of sand on the bench. 

Edited August 2, 2021 by lou_fine

[Mmehdy]

On 8/2/2021 at 1:06 PM, lou_fine said:

For all those who were worried about Blackstone coming in and making all sorts of changes to CGC, they probably got much bigger fish to fry.  

Especially when the CGC/CCS portion of the CCS operations they spent $500M on is just a very small slice of the whole CCS pie.  Especially since they now gone into a strategic partnership with AIG after that and apparently they just threw another $900M into a media-backed company to purchase the Hello Sunshine operations from Reese Witherspoon.  

So, for all you worry warts here, I am sure that CGC/CCS is as much on their operational radar screen as another grain of sand on the bench. 

I think that company, which is expertly run, will maximize all aspects of their 500M purchase, which is a considerable investment given the collectable grading field. they will want CGC running on full speed, but the good thing about deep pocket owners if that have the buck to spend to make even more and make CGC even better and more dominate. I still think, Lou there is the possibility that CGC makes a pitch to buy CBCS and merge them together to control market share. However, CBCS is just not that dominate in this market even after all this time as being a competitor. The incentive early on was greater to merge because of the unknown factor of what market share will they take. When they merged or were sold to Beckett's they have in my opinion underperformed especially in the mega key grading level.

 Blackstone knows how to own, operate and sell a company and it appears for now that they have made a long term investment in this purchase which is good for everyone, and especially TCBC like you and me.

 But, Lou I disagree, these "bean counters" never leave a penny profit on the table, they are experts at profit maximization  and CCG will not be looked as a gran of sand, Lou, what i am trying to say is they a "whole lot of bean counters" who would not forget anything or anybody...LOL....Look for CGC to grow....

[Cat-Man_America]

On 8/2/2021 at 3:06 PM, lou_fine said:

For all those who were worried about Blackstone coming in and making all sorts of changes to CGC, they probably got much bigger fish to fry.  

Especially when the CGC/CCS portion of the CCS operations they spent $500M on is just a very small slice of the whole CCS pie.  Especially since they now gone into a strategic partnership with AIG after that and apparently they just threw another $900M into a media-backed company to purchase the Hello Sunshine operations from Reese Witherspoon.  

So, for all you worry warts here, I am sure that CGC/CCS is as much on their operational radar screen as another grain of sand on the bench. 

This brings to mind a Wilderness Journey tale (for those who don’t follow my Facebook postings). I’ve been writing these short tales for awhile now, at least since the great Texas freeze of ‘21 when I nearly froze to death.  I’m not sure if there are any nuggets of wisdom to be gleaned here, but hopefully this will at least be as satisfying as those picked up at your local McDonald’s drive through window...

Cousin Zeb

Seems like I've been walking forever. By my best reckoning this is Day Fifteen in my journal. It's odd the things that go through one's mind with no destination in sight. I read somewhere that the journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step, but there's no mention of how many pairs of shoes will be required nor where along the way one can acquire them.  

That reminded me of a much younger version of myself hearing relatives whispering about cousin Zeb having bigger fish to fry. For the longest time I couldn't figure out what they meant until one day I decided to follow my cousin to the lake and watch him throw a baited grappling hook into the water. Never saw him catch anything, but after that it all made sense.

Edited August 3, 2021 by Cat-Man_America
For those who don't get my rustic storytelling, just chalk it up to ale!

[Cat-Man_America]

On 8/2/2021 at 3:40 PM, Mmehdy said:

I think that company, which is expertly run, will maximize all aspects of their 500M purchase, which is a considerable investment given the collectable grading field. they will want CGC running on full speed, but the good thing about deep pocket owners if that have the buck to spend to make even more and make CGC even better and more dominate. I still think, Lou there is the possibility that CGC makes a pitch to buy CBCS and merge them together to control market share. However, CBCS is just not that dominate in this market even after all this time as being a competitor. The incentive early on was greater to merge because of the unknown factor of what market share will they take. When they merged or were sold to Beckett's they have in my opinion underperformed especially in the mega key grading level.

 Blackstone knows how to own, operate and sell a company and it appears for now that they have made a long term investment in this purchase which is good for everyone, and especially TCBC like you and me.

 But, Lou I disagree, these "bean counters" never leave a penny profit on the table, they are experts at profit maximization  and CCG will not be looked as a gran of sand, Lou, what i am trying to say is they a "whole lot of bean counters" who would not forget anything or anybody...LOL....Look for CGC to grow....

So. basically, what you're saying is that anyone speculating on this is full of beans! 

[Mmehdy]

On 8/4/2021 at 11:18 AM, Cat-Man_America said:

So. basically, what you're saying is that anyone speculating on this is full of beans! 

What  I am saying is that given the professional level of ownership I do not think any opportunity to increase asset value will be left on the table, just because they are buying more a expensive company unrelated to collectables. I think we are going to see deep pocket changes to this company by Blackstone, with an eye on the future of either selling then CGC in a piece sale  for example a HA/CC joint purchase or the entire collectable family sold at a profit above the average rate of return for invested funds to please their investors.

 The issue in the future is where does CGC go from here...growth wise....do not be surprised to see a spin off sub company which will compete with HA, CC and CL and knock out all the other little guys on the collectable Auction front, also look for the increase of what is collectable to be under their radar for expansion. Especially original comic art pages from comic books...it's coming especially if price growth continues. Any thoughts?

Edited August 4, 2021 by Mmehdy

[pemart1966]

On 8/1/2021 at 9:46 PM, KCOComics said:

I don't think we've seen the GA market cool down. 

Now, SA and BA keys were hot like I've never seen before and over the last 12 months they've outpaced GA books. 

But prices of GA never slowed. They've just behaved a little more naturally. The mega keys continued to set records.  PCH books that I had hoped would cool down, continued to rise and rise. Romance, crime, Timely and MLJ keep on chugging.

@G.A.tor made an observation last year that really stayed with me. It was along the lines of, the majority of AC1 purchases he knew about over the last several years were made by people under the age of 40 (please correct me if I said that wrong).

And while AC1 may be an outlier because of it's prominent position in the hobby, I think it shows that younger collectors with big wallets are still highly interested in GA books. 

SA and BA keys may outpace certain GA keys, but I think GA will continue to grow, with terrific demand and comparatively limited supply. 

And some books, like early Bats and Superman will continue to get further and further out of reach for the majority of us. 

 

 

 

I would love to know how many of the "under 40" crowd are actual true comic book fans as opposed to uber wealthy individuals looking for some place to park a few million in hopes of generating a decent ROI in the near run...

[Ryan.]

On 8/4/2021 at 4:19 PM, pemart1966 said:

I would love to know how many of the "under 40" crowd are actual true comic book fans 

[supacor]

im 38 and all i collect is GA.  we are out there.  most of us just dont have those deep pockets to drop 5 figures on a low grade grail just like that. this group is made up of a lot of newer families, so it makes that giant purchase all that more difficult.  i dont think i have anything thats above a 3.5 grade at this point, and to be honest im happy with (most of) my .5's for as rare as they are.  

[KCOComics]

On 8/4/2021 at 4:19 PM, pemart1966 said:

I would love to know how many of the "under 40" crowd are actual true comic book fans as opposed to uber wealthy individuals looking for some place to park a few million in hopes of generating a decent ROI in the near run...

Well, I make up 50% of this equation. 

I'm under 40 (38), but I don't have that irritating problem of needing places to park my millions! (Largely due to a frustrating lack of millions)

I think younger people are a little less risk adverse than their parents and look for alternative investments. That's why we are seeing the rise of Robin Hood.  And let's face it,  comics,  cards,  art, video games and classic cars are allot more fun than mutual funds. 

And I don't think that trend is going to change any time soon. 

 

[tth2]

Okay, let's start hearing from the under-40s who have millions.

[lou_fine]

On 8/4/2021 at 1:06 PM, Mmehdy said:

The issue in the future is where does CGC go from here...growth wise....do not be surprised to see a spin off sub company which will compete with HA, CC and CL and knock out all the other little guys on the collectable Auction front, also look for the increase of what is collectable to be under their radar for expansion. Especially original comic art pages from comic books...it's coming especially if price growth continues. Any thoughts?

My thought is whether you still really see this as a possibilty in terms of the current scandal being talked about in the various social media platforms and also apparently in the NY Times on the current scandal with what's taking place between WATA and Heritage?  

Especially in the case of Halperin who kind of always seems to have his fingers clinging right onto the edge of the ledge when it comes to these kinds of scandals involving possible market manipulation.    

Edited September 6, 2021 by lou_fine

[kimik]

On 8/5/2021 at 7:28 AM, tth2 said:

Okay, let's start hearing from the under-40s who have millions.

The ones I know who collect comics are too busy to spend time on the boards, and they do not chase GA books. 

[Robot Man]

On 8/5/2021 at 4:58 AM, KCOComics said:

Well, I make up 50% of this equation. 

I'm under 40 (38), but I don't have that irritating problem of needing places to park my millions! (Largely due to a frustrating lack of millions)

I think younger people are a little less risk adverse than their parents and look for alternative investments. That's why we are seeing the rise of Robin Hood.  And let's face it,  comics,  cards,  art, video games and classic cars are allot more fun than mutual funds. 

And I don't think that trend is going to change any time soon. 

 

Hey, I’m OVER 60 and don’t have the means to swim in the deep end. Never have. I’d rather brag how little I’ve spent on books rather than how much. I also have the advantage of age and remember when comics were a whole lot less. I’ve collected primarily GA since I discovered them as a kid and hung on to most of them. I have always used my head not my wallet or my emotions on my purchases. 

I also spread out long ago. For way less than most of the Promise books, one could buy this. Believe me, MUCH more fun than a few old pamphlets stored away in a box or a safe and just as liquid when you get tired of shifting...

[Mr bla bla]

On 9/6/2021 at 9:32 PM, Robot Man said:

Hey, I’m OVER 60 and don’t have the means to swim in the deep end. Never have. I’d rather brag how little I’ve spent on books rather than how much. I also have the advantage of age and remember when comics were a whole lot less. I’ve collected primarily GA since I discovered them as a kid and hung on to most of them. I have always used my head not my wallet or my emotions on my purchases. 

I also spread out long ago. For way less than most of the Promise books, one could buy this. Believe me, MUCH more fun than a few old pamphlets stored away in a box or a safe and just as liquid when you get tired of shifting...

Nice slab bro ... 

[Robot Man]

Sadly, not many of us can hope to roll like @MrBedrock...

[batman_fan]

On 8/5/2021 at 7:28 AM, tth2 said:

Okay, let's start hearing from the under-40s who have millions.

I am over 40 and looking for where to park millions.  I have settled on stock, index funds, and real estate.  OA is a fun place to spend excess money.

[MrBedrock]

On 9/6/2021 at 3:13 PM, Robot Man said:

Sadly, not many of us can hope to roll like @MrBedrock...

[Mmehdy]

On 9/6/2021 at 11:45 AM, lou_fine said:

My thought is whether you still really see this as a possibilty in terms of the current scandal being talked about in the various social media platforms and also apparently in the NY Times on the current scandal with what's taking place between WATA and Heritage?  

Especially in the case of Halperin who kind of always seems to have his fingers clinging right onto the edge of the ledge when it comes to these kinds of scandals involving possible market manipulation.    

The GA/SA/OA market today shows after over 6M in HA sales, without the AF 15 yet, that the market is not interested in an unrelated  video game or whatever scandal. We have had many scandals including the Ha/NP Gresham or whoever phantom bidder, the Mastro scandal which included cards and comics etc, even in the early 70's say 74..the dealer who if he did not buy them, he would have his friends steal them...strange stuff, but the GA/SA market has gone up for the last 50 years and will continue to go up in 2022.

 the GA/SA comic book market is so large now, and international now, it is very hard for one company or person to control or manipulate it. The smaller original comic book art market is another story which I would assume easier to control. I see our GA/SA comic book world charging forward in a positive direction for some time. Look at Cap #1 today...$180,000.00...that book still has yet to hit ceiling.

Edited September 8, 2021 by Mmehdy

[Mmehdy]

I followed the entire HA auction today, total so far over $18,600,000....Let me say this GA books are a bargain or a steal compared  some of the marvel later and prices for like x-men #1 in 6.5 etc....I think when the dust settles, GA and especially high grade GA or Promise books will have a lot of growth ahead.