AF 9.6 coming to auction 7 7

[NoMan]

I hope the Golden 8.5 slips thru  the cracks with all this HA 9.6 noise and chills at 500k

[NoMan]

Speaking of HA 9.6 noise, anybody see any negative hobby-wise stuff happening because of sale?

[G.A.tor]

On 9/13/2021 at 11:53 AM, NoMan said:

Speaking of HA 9.6 noise, anybody see any negative hobby-wise stuff happening because of sale?

Like what ?

[NoMan]

On 9/13/2021 at 9:00 AM, G.A.tor said:

Like what ?

I have no idea. 

[tth2]

On 9/13/2021 at 11:53 PM, NoMan said:

Speaking of HA 9.6 noise, anybody see any negative hobby-wise stuff happening because of sale?

Yes.  I heard the following joke: 

What do call someone who owns a 9.6 AF 15 worth $3.6m?

[lou_fine]

On 9/7/2021 at 5:50 AM, The lips said:

On 9/6/2021 at 3:35 PM, G.A.tor said:

That sold via eBay where there is no buyers premium. 

Really ?

my mistake, I thought it was HA 

The $3.2M auction was the copy auctioned off on eBay by Darren Adams from Pristine Comics several years ago.  

The much more recent one was a private sale for $3.25M earlier this year which was handled through Metro/CC:  

https://www.cgccomics.com/news/article/9032/action-comics-1-sets-record/

[lou_fine]

On 9/7/2021 at 2:09 PM, peewee22 said:

How does CGC split hairs from 9.8 to 9.9? 

In all honesty, they most definitely can't with any true degree of certainly since grading is really nothing more than a subjective opinion (albeit supposedly an expert one) at a time a book crosses a grader's table, as opposed to being anywhere near an exact science.  

Based upon the dollars being paid out though for some of these nosebleed highest graded copies recently, the bidders must think grading is not only an exact science, but probably even more precise than that electron microscope you have pictured in your post up above.  

To each their own, but I would much rather buy the book, as opposed to buying the label.  Especially with today's grading inconsistency when CGC's acceptable grading margin of error seems to be widening rather substantially to plus or minus 3 grade increments or more on some books. 

Edited September 14, 2021 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 9/10/2021 at 7:28 AM, Aman619 said:

And, during the Sotheby’s era, restoration was touted as a way to IMPROVE your books.  It was a gambit or a attempt to legitimize restoration in conics same as it is in other Sotheby’s collecting genres. 

And sadly, no different from today except that it's become much more sophisticated and widespread, especially with the definition of restoration changing over time to exclude more and more things that the hobby had once recognized as falling under the restoration umbrella back then.     

[lou_fine]

On 9/12/2021 at 4:12 PM, Dark Knight said:

On 9/12/2021 at 12:52 PM, UncleBEN said:

Was the bottom edge indented when you owned it or is this new SCS damage?  Or as others have stated could be a reflection from the holder . 

https://goldinauctions.com/1962_Marvel_Comics__Amazing_Fantasy___15___Origin_-LOT109893.aspx

 

Yeah that bottom edge damage was already there.  I felt that it wasn't as strong of an 8.5 copy compared to typical 8.5's I've seen.

I would most definitely agree with you here in terms of this being a very very soft 8.5 graded copy of the book.  

Especially when you zoom in and you can see up to 20 very visible creases on the spine along with the indented bottom corner.  

[lou_fine]

On 9/10/2021 at 1:09 PM, namisgr said:

I went two consecutive years to their once-a-year New York City auction.  The one in 2012 featured the Billy Wright GA collection and the Curator Fantastic Four run consigned by Dan Jurgens, the one in 2011 the Gary Dahlberg/Twin Cities SA collection.  Everyone in the audience interested in bidding was given a paddle with identifier number on it, as a typical antiques auction runs.  

Do you remember what the audience size was when you attended the NYC auctions?  

Just curious because I remember attending the one they had during the big SD Con when they supposedly had over 100,000 avid fans in attendance to draw from, and yet they couldn't even draw more than 20 people to their big Signature Auction which was an absolute shock to me.  Especially with all of the free food and refreshments they had for anybody who attended.  

[namisgr]

On 9/14/2021 at 4:05 AM, lou_fine said:

Do you remember what the audience size was when you attended the NYC auctions?  

Just curious because I remember attending the one they had during the big SD Con when they supposedly had over 100,000 avid fans in attendance to draw from, and yet they couldn't even draw more than 20 people to their big Signature Auction which was an absolute shock to me.  Especially with all of the free food and refreshments they had for anybody who attended.  

I'd say there were something like 40-50 non-Heritage people in attendance for the floor bidding.  Most were serious bidders, the rest family.  You could come and go during the session, so maybe 25-30 were there at a given time.

Edited September 14, 2021 by namisgr

[NoMan]

On 9/9/2021 at 4:28 PM, peewee22 said:

I'm sure it will hit the national news media.

Guess not. 

[VintageComics]

On 8/21/2021 at 1:23 PM, G.A.tor said:

we are in midst of a hyperinflation period

When I said we were entering hyperinflation I was nominated for a good tar and feathering.

On 8/21/2021 at 1:23 PM, G.A.tor said:

this 9.6 was at one time a cgc 9.4...I'm told it has zero shot at a 9.8 ...so that suspicion shouldn't be part of anyone's equation...

Pretty sure this book walked up to my table as a 9.4 in NYC in 2010. It was really nice. I kinda knew the owner brought it because he was trying to upgrade it because it was just after the first 9.6 $1MIL sale and the owner had his eye on that 9.6 grade.

[VintageComics]

On 8/21/2021 at 5:40 PM, Aman619 said:

Not really. It’s more of a catch up because all other grades already moved up since the last 9.6 sale. 

There's a tandem reaction here that happens.

It's like having a broomstick on your hand horizontally.

If the left side of the broomstick goes up, eventually the right side needs to rise to meet up with the left side. Visa versa if the right side goes up first.

In much the same way, sometimes the high grade leads and the low grade follows and sometimes the low grade leads and the high grade just lands where it's expected to on the foundation the low grade copies have already built.

In this case, both have been rising steadily. The market seems to have an idea of where it wants to go with this book based on what other books have already done this year, and that AF #15 is late to the game and just settling into the market that's already been set by everything previously.

[VintageComics]

On 8/27/2021 at 11:40 AM, jimjum12 said:

Such a good point. I was wondering about this just the other day ... people insinuate that the high hammers on Promise Books are due to market manipulation, but I have yet to see ANY names of who these actual buyers are.

The winner of some of the record price Promise Books is someone I know and they're legit.

On 8/27/2021 at 12:19 PM, valiantman said:

Thank you, that is very helpful.

I'm essentially a speculator in all markets, since my activities make no statistical significance, but I can understand the thought process that "this is not last year".  In particular for the crypto side, a $10,000 investment in dogecoin, which would have been highly speculative but not a financial burden for many investors just one year ago (August 2020) would be worth $790,000 this year (today).

To "park a chunk of profit" in this example, such as this $790,000, would be based upon an initial investment last year of $10,000. 

The "cost to me" would still be $10,000 (plus one year of time) for a $790,000 asset (some hypothetical comic) today.

That $790,000 could not have been spent last year even if the price of the hypothetical comic was $400,000 at that time, so I wouldn't feel any sadness that I didn't buy it at $400,000. 

I would have only had $10,000 in this bucket at this point last year.  "This is not last year" makes perfect sense.

Agreed. He's not jaded by last year's comic prices because he wasn't in the market. His point of reference is his small, $10K investment so if he has $700K to spend that he didn't have before, everything is priced right now.

I love the way you think and can relate.

On 8/27/2021 at 11:36 AM, valiantman said:

@G.A.tor do the perspective buyers with that level of available funds discount the book because it's Silver Age and significantly more common (in all grades) than Action #1 and DC #27, or do they look at the census for all three and consider "Top 5 known" without really caring about the ages?

I've always been fascinated by the differences between age, condition, and price. 

It seems like it would have to be like thinking about those charts we saw in grade school, where you try to understand Price/Phase based on the balance of age/temperature and condition/pressure:

This is something I've struggled with for decades because of the 'SA - GA difference' but I think we're past that point.

30 years ago, in 1990 when I was at the height of my young collecting, AF #15 came out 20 years after the GA keys and 'only' 30 years before 1990. It wasn't truly an 'old' book since GA keys were already 50+years old.

But today, AF #15 is 60 years old while the GA keys are only 20 years older (80 years in total but not nearly as different as they were 30 years ago)

We're getting to a point where the SA keys of today are the GA keys of only a few years ago.

AF #15 is older now than Action #1 was in 1990.

Edited September 20, 2021 by VintageComics

[Kevin76]

On 9/20/2021 at 3:44 AM, VintageComics said:

The winner of some of the record price Promise Books is someone I know and they're legit.

Agreed. He's not jaded by last year's comic prices because he wasn't in the market. His point of reference is his small, $10K investment so if he has $700K to spend that he didn't have before, everything is priced right now.

I love the way you think and can relate.

This is something I've struggled with for decades because of the 'SA - GA difference' but I think we're past that point.

30 years ago, in 1990 when I was at the height of my young collecting, AF #15 came out 20 years after the GA keys and 'only' 30 years before 1990. It wasn't truly an 'old' book since GA keys were already 50+years old.

But today, AF #15 is 60 years old while the GA keys are only 20 years older (80 years in total but not nearly as different as they were 30 years ago)

We're getting to a point where the SA keys of today are the GA keys of only a few years ago.

AF #15 is older now than Action #1 was in 1990.

This is how I feel about pre 1975 Bronze keys, Silver is the new Gold and Bronze will be the new Silver. These books aren't getting any younger and demand is becoming more and more intense

[VintageComics]

On 8/30/2021 at 9:47 AM, jimjum12 said:

... There will probably come a day when the Allentown Detective 27 will supplant the Church Action 1, much in the same way that AF 15 has permanently supplanted both FF 1 and Showcase 4 .... popularity DOES matter 

The people spending the money say no, the people who aren't say yes. Maybe the ones saying yes today who aren't spending the money now will make the difference in the future.

Times do change and I never thought AF #15 would surpass FF #1, which to me is one of the greatest comic books of all time.

I still have trouble accepting FF #1 being supplanted, and it's been this way for what, a decade now?

[VintageComics]

On 8/30/2021 at 2:53 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

I do not think AF15 will ever be the same. The 9.6 sale will change the game for this book.

Nah, the game hasn't changed for AF #15 in a decade.

Now if a 9.8 appeared, it would change the game. It wouldn't sell for much more than a 9.6 now IMO but it would certainly push the prices of 9.6 down.

[VintageComics]

On 8/31/2021 at 5:30 PM, Chicago Boy said:

Any thoughts on what's keeping this book from a 9.8 ?  Top left hand corner of the spine on FC ? Anyone see the grader notes ?

Tanning. The book looked like a 9.8 in the 9.4 holder structurally but already had OW pages and so CGC was probably tough on the book for tanning then and it has too much to go to 9.8

This is just educated speculation but that seems to be the case.

[VintageComics]

On 9/2/2021 at 2:54 PM, chrisco37 said:

On 9/2/2021 at 11:51 AM, KCOComics said:

I think you did an amazing job with your AF15 sale. Made the best decision you could have for you and your family in the moment. 

Sure, sooner or later it would be worth more, but that will likely always be true with a book like AF15.   

 

 

It’s a fools errand to play the “if only I held it until now” game.  All you’ll do is get upset or angry or both.  
Did you sell it for a profit or a loss?  That’s the only question worth answering.

A few years ago, I sold my FF48 6.5.  I sold it for double what I had paid for it.  I was happy at the time.  That’s a great return.  I could beat myself up over not holding onto it until now (as it’s significantly more expensive than when I sold it), but what’s the use?  The book is gone.  I made a good profit on it.  End of story.

Actually, the way to look at it is 'what did I do with that money?'

If you bought another cool comic it's a wash.

If you spent it on yourself or someone you love, it's more than worth it.

Whatever you did, you multiplied that profit and invested it in something else.

I kinda get turned off by all the 'if only I held onto it' stories because it's so unproductive and maybe even unrealistic in some cases. If I had my dad's old Cadillac it'd be worth a zillion now but what sort of cost and effort would it cost me to carry that car for 40 or 50 years for it to finally be worth something? It would have drained me of resources and other opportunities.

That's how I look at it.

And quite honestly, if everyone held onto everything, none of it would be worth anything because everyone would have one now.