2022 GOLDEN AGE COMIC BOOK MARKET REPORT 8 8

[GermanFan]

On 1/8/2022 at 6:06 PM, Robot Man said:

And if you want a fun read, grab this. Amazing stories of great finds and the very secretative and most obsessive group of collectors in most any hobby. These people are unreal. 

Was it in the David Lynch documentary "Crumb" when Crumb told that he collected old Blues records (from the 20s and 30s) and went to homes were Blacks lived and asked them if they had old Blues records? Thats the way of the hardcore collector.

[Robot Man]

On 1/8/2022 at 9:21 AM, GermanFan said:

Was it in the David Lynch documentary "Crumb" when Crumb told that he collected old Blues records (from the 20s and 30s) and went to homes were Blacks lived and asked them if they had old Blues records? Thats the way of the hardcore collector.

Not sure. But these people make him (and most of us) look like rookies.

Crumb and Bob Hite of the band Canned Heat, have probably the biggest known collections of old 78’s that I have heard of. 

I believe Bob Beerbong traded Crumb a bunch of old blues 78s for the original art he has been selling off.

No matter what you collect, this book is a fascinating read cover to cover! 

[GermanFan]

Thank you for the tip Robot Man, I just ordered the book.

Not want to derail the thread but another fascinating read is:

Billion Dollar Painter: The Triumph and Tragedy of Thomas Kinkade, the painter of light by Eric Kuskey 

[Bronty]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:48 PM, tth2 said:

The downside of buying low grade books is you end up owning a lot of crappy looking books. 

Also, you have to work so much harder.  If I sell one AF 15 in 9.6, I only need to list, pack and ship one book to get $3.6m.  How many AF 15s in 2.0 would I have to list, pack and ship to reach $3.6m? 

In the day that was a consideration.    Today?   You ship one box to heritage.   Done.

[Cat-Man_America]

On 1/8/2022 at 11:06 AM, Robot Man said:

And if you want a fun read, grab this. Amazing stories of great finds and the very secretative and most obsessive group of collectors in most any hobby. These people are unreal. 

All hobbies are at once similar and very different from each other.  There are obsessive collectors in almost every field of collecting and self-serving secrecy isn't uncommon.  In comics, noteworthy predictors are census numbers, not so much for accuracy, but for gauging in very general terms a sense of the market potential books have at any given point in time. Other predictors include pedigrees, top third-party graded copies and key books in any genre.  The larger the number of books in any census, the larger the base of collectors required to sustain it's growth (potential value) and overall market appeal. 

Expanding universe theory verses rising tide theory: The "expanding universe theory" mostly pertains to books of special interest either because of pedigree notoriety, limited quantities in grade, key status or all of the above.  The implication is that the highest grades of these books extend to selling for multiples (3X, 4X, up to 10X of established Guide values) driving prices downstream albeit more incrementally well beyond established values.  At the same time high grade sales fuel interest in lower grade books which benefit from being marginally more affordable to a wider range of the collecting market.  This compliments the "rising tide theory" since lower and mid-grade books maintain auction market interest during periods when higher grade books are inaccessible to collectors.  And this usually extends to a broader spectrum of collectible comics (non-key books).  

The rising tide theory is very much tethered to higher grade sales, but far less of a volatile moving target.  The fact that a hypothetical 5K mid-grade book repeatedly brings 10k or better whenever a copy comes up for auction is still fueled by the sale of one or more high grade copies ...perhaps years before... that demonstrated a phenomenal jump in value.  To compare this to stocks, using investment criteria to determine volatility, if a speculative stock ...or book in this instance... takes off, investors will usually follow the trend.  Increases of this nature are still speculative, but for the short term they're stable, hold value and can usually be trusted for growth.

While the minutiae of market trends and oddball investment theories for comic values gets too much into the weeds for most collectors ...investment criteria being almost anathema to collecting comics as a hobby... it's an unavoidable discussion topic within the community as collectibles prices continue to rise astronomically in a very fluid economy with investment capital seeking diversification.

Public Service Announcement: No ale was imbibed in the production of this post (perhaps it should've been; I will now correct that oversight).  

Edited January 8, 2022 by Cat-Man_America

[Robot Man]

Whew! My brain hurts!

This book is about a number of real crazy obsessed  collectors that will do anything to find the rarest of the rare.

Unlike most of us, they care NOTHING about money. Thus  the title.

A very fun read. 

 

[Cat-Man_America]

On 1/8/2022 at 2:03 PM, Robot Man said:

Whew! My brain hurts!

This book is about a number of real crazy obsessed  collectors that will do anything to find the rarest of the rare.

Unlike most of us, they care NOTHING about money. Thus  the title.

A very fun read. 

 

I'll check it out! 

[50YrsCollctngCmcs]

On 1/8/2022 at 9:21 AM, GermanFan said:

Was it in the David Lynch documentary "Crumb" when Crumb told that he collected old Blues records (from the 20s and 30s) and went to homes were Blacks lived and asked them if they had old Blues records? Thats the way of the hardcore collector.

Yeah I recall that too! That was a crazy movie. And since he grew up in Philly he would have had lots of sources for those records. I also recall Harvey Pekar met Crumb in Cincinnati looking for old records at garage sales.

[buttock]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:43 PM, gino2paulus2 said:

As a general rule over the past 10 years you can see either the equivalent or MORE in many cases of percentage increase in value of the more obtainable copies period. I feel like every year i make a similar comment somewhere and get the same response of the bull market and how long term premium books will grow better and I am the only person bringing actual data to prove it’s not necessarily true in fact in most cases it’s not true. Just because we think should be and it makes sense in our heads doesn’t make it true. The data is there time and again and i’m not cherry picking i’ve done it on so many books but didn’t want to bog it down too much. 

GPA has a recorded AF 15 in 8.5 selling in Sept of 2021 i’m not sure if it was an auction or not but it was close to $707K (i’m not sure how many of us here are buyers at 707K for any 1 book that aren’t investments and i work very very hard but i’m out 😂)

the Bottom line is i’m not an investor or am in this to invest in comics and many here in Gold section are the same we are here for the love of the books. Even most dealers that participate here are big time comic lovers which is why this site has always been amazing. My collection could be worth zero dollars tomorrow and while it would be mildly upsetting it was a risk i was willing to take bc i was only putting in money I could afford to lose. I chase stuff no one may care about in 20 years and I know that but because I enjoy them so much  they could be worth nothing and still be worth something to me.

I gave my 2 cents here with data bc year after after year we see the same similar market reports that, “investing in premium high grade books” are a slam dunk long term. I’m not here to say that isn’t true just that it is misleading. Again, just because some PREFER high grade books doesn’t always mean they are a better investment. 

…and As many have said before me buy what you love and can afford to lose in this hobby and the reward will be worth so much more than the monetary gain. But if your buying power only gives you access to lower to mid graded copies don’t let the investment aspect deter you from pulling the trigger bc data proves you may have done pretty well had you not waited out for the higher graded copy.  

 

On 1/8/2022 at 12:05 AM, tth2 said:

Based on what people are saying here, we should be seeing serious compression between low grade prices and high grade prices.  But I'm not seeing that at all.  If anything, the multiples for 9.4 or higher books compared to lower grade books seem to be higher than ever.  And for 9.8?  The sky's the limit. 

I think the more relevant point in all this is, if you want to make gains buy blue chip stuff in any grade.  

If we were to compare results on non-key books the gains on 9.8 vs 4.0 for non-key ASMs in the 60s and 70s, your comps are going to be completely different.  That's where the "only buy HG" mantra holds.  

But to generalize sales of blue chip keys to non keys is silly. 

[adamstrange]

On 1/8/2022 at 3:03 PM, Robot Man said:

Whew! My brain hurts!

This book is about a number of real crazy obsessed  collectors that will do anything to find the rarest of the rare.

Unlike most of us, they care NOTHING about money. Thus  the title.

A very fun read. 

 

I agree -- very enjoyable.

I have a relative who collects 78s, including the blues records from the 20s.  Many of these exist with only 5 or 6 known copies and have never been re-recorded. 

However, the title of the book does not apply to him.  He read an ad in a record collecting magazine of a gentleman looking for a number of these and he contacted the guy.  Turns out that guy was in his 70s and had been looking for decades for titles that had eluded him.  Money was no object and he was astounded at what my relative had.  They were able to come to agreement to make a longtime collector and blues lover very happy. 

Edited January 8, 2022 by adamstrange

[Crowzilla]

On 1/8/2022 at 12:44 PM, Robot Man said:

Not sure. But these people make him (and most of us) look like rookies.

Crumb and Bob Hite of the band Canned Heat, have probably the biggest known collections of old 78’s that I have heard of.

How big a collection can Hite still have 30 years after his death?

[Flex Mentallo]

On 1/8/2022 at 4:19 PM, Yellow Kid said:

I think I suggested this when I first joined the board, but anyone interested in investing in comics, or anything for that matter, should begin by reading Charles Mackay's great book,

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

[tth2]

On 1/9/2022 at 2:20 AM, Bronty said:

On 1/8/2022 at 10:48 AM, tth2 said:

The downside of buying low grade books is you end up owning a lot of crappy looking books. 

Also, you have to work so much harder.  If I sell one AF 15 in 9.6, I only need to list, pack and ship one book to get $3.6m.  How many AF 15s in 2.0 would I have to list, pack and ship to reach $3.6m? 

In the day that was a consideration.    Today?   You ship one box to heritage.   Done.

I'm assuming you don't sell the 2.0 AF 15s all in one batch. 

[tth2]

On 1/9/2022 at 6:37 AM, Crowzilla said:

How big a collection can Hite still have 30 years after his death?

Verzyl still has the best Timely collection some years after his death.

[Bronty]

On 1/8/2022 at 6:13 PM, tth2 said:

I'm assuming you don't sell the 2.0 AF 15s all in one batch. 

Only need to ship them once… they’ll do the rest..  

[Crowzilla]

On 1/8/2022 at 6:17 PM, tth2 said:

Verzyl still has the best Timely collection some years after his death.

A Verzyl might, but not John. And let's see what happens when 30 years is up.

Pretty sure another John, Teftteller, has the best collection of blues 78s. Many not even known when Hite was alive and collecting. The internet has enabled some amazing discoveries to be found.

[tth2]

On 1/9/2022 at 7:48 AM, Crowzilla said:

On 1/9/2022 at 7:17 AM, tth2 said:

Verzyl still has the best Timely collection some years after his death.

A Verzyl might, but not John. And let's see what happens when 30 years is up.

As long as it remains locked up, it might as well be John as far as I'm concerned.

I'm impressed that his heirs have resisted the urge to sell after seeing the prices from the Promise Timelys, particularly given that the MH Timelys would include all the keys (although the Cap 1 would be the AT copy).  That would be some seriously life changing money unless they are already much wealthier than I realized.

[Book Guy]

On 1/8/2022 at 9:06 AM, Robot Man said:

And if you want a fun read, grab this. Amazing stories of great finds and the very secretative and most obsessive group of collectors in most any hobby. These people are unreal. 

A real fun read!

[damonwad]

On 1/8/2022 at 9:06 AM, Robot Man said:

And if you want a fun read, grab this. Amazing stories of great finds and the very secretative and most obsessive group of collectors in most any hobby. These people are unreal. 

Thanks RM, looking forward to reading it.

Your description reminded me of a book I read (and loved) 15 or so years ago about rare book collectors called A Gentle Madness.

Edited January 9, 2022 by damonwad

[gino2paulus2]

On 1/8/2022 at 4:42 PM, buttock said:

 

I think the more relevant point in all this is, if you want to make gains buy blue chip stuff in any grade.  

If we were to compare results on non-key books the gains on 9.8 vs 4.0 for non-key ASMs in the 60s and 70s, your comps are going to be completely different.  That's where the "only buy HG" mantra holds.  

But to generalize sales of blue chip keys to non keys is silly. 

Absolutely 100% this only applies to keys and classic covers etc. This does not apply in general to run filler books at least I haven’t looked at those nearly although i do still buy them to READ!! Many times in higher grade too as I can actually afford them. 🤗🥰 I just bought some nice higher grade All Star Squadron stuff (Not GA) but very cool books to me at least and very affordable stuff.