Oh Man I Sure Hope the Comics Market Never Crashes as Bad as the Stamps Market 13 13

[Krydel4]

On 3/9/2022 at 5:48 PM, Gregd said:

Boy, if I was new to his hobby, these posts would make me think twice 😞 

Understand that it’s an opinion, but all this talk about the hobby’s demise doesn’t really get new collectors excited to jump in. These boards can be a bit doom and gloom at times. 

I don't think it's all doom and gloom. However, it is starting to be all about money at every level. A fresh faced 9 year old walking into a shop is looking at paying $15 to $20 if they want to purchase 4 books. Books were $1.00 to $1.25 when I started collecting. I remember some Old Guy in the shop one day complaining that he remembered when they went from 10 cents to 12 cents as his allowance was 50 cents a week. And if you want to begin collecting the comics you read as a kid then you better bring cash. For example, if you wanted to start collecting Silver Age GL, like I did, which is not really an in demand series your still going to be paying a pretty penny. If you want say the first 3 Showcase appearances + the first 25 issues of the main series in 5.0 grade that's $8000. A Marvel series like Spider-Man easily $40000 in 5.0 grade for ASM 1-25. That's why the majority of new buyers are speculators/investors cause it is simply commodity brokering. 

[Cat]

And you can't even give new readers a break and say 'hey kid, pick up the omnibus, you get all the stories cheap.' Many are out of print and going for a grand or so, though Marvel has been better now at putting some of the pricier ones back into print. It was terrible for many years for those that'd missed out on the initial print run. Never affected me, bar one, which I still got cheap, but I felt for all those who wanted the material and just couldn't pony up the money for them, let alone single issues. 

[Poekaymon]

On 3/9/2022 at 11:23 PM, Krydel4 said:

I don't think it's all doom and gloom. However, it is starting to be all about money at every level. A fresh faced 9 year old walking into a shop is looking at paying $15 to $20 if they want to purchase 4 books. Books were $1.00 to $1.25 when I started collecting. 

You can't blame that on comics--that's just inflation.  Depending on how old you are, your $5 for 5 books could easily have been much more than $20 in today's dollars.  I actually think the trajectory of comic prices is pretty reasonable--especially compared with stuff like housing and higher education.

[Krydel4]

On 3/9/2022 at 9:50 PM, Poekaymon said:

You can't blame that on comics--that's just inflation.  Depending on how old you are, your $5 for 5 books could easily have been much more than $20 in today's dollars.  I actually think the trajectory of comic prices is pretty reasonable--especially compared with stuff like housing and higher education.

Not really. $1 in 1982 is worth $2.91 today. Plus they usually were 30+ pages when most books today are 22-25 pages. An individual comic at today's price point is the reason that trades are out performing single issues in aggregate sales. You can get a hardcover trade of 10 issues of a book at about 60% of the cost of buying them individually. But still paying $80 for 20 issues or $50 bucks for the hardcover collection for a book like Something is Killing the Children is still expensive for the average consumer.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Krydel4
Clarity

[GermanFan]

The comic market will crash back to 1980s/1990s levels. Look whats happening in the world. De-globalisation. De-dollarisation. Bifurcation (two hostile blocks emerging with separated economies and currencies). Not even counting the devastations of the previous years. Energy prices, food prices, commodities in general go up up up.

Prepare for a wild ride.

Edit: In real value, not nominal value. A loaf of bread in hyperinflationary weimar germany cost 100.000 Mark nominal but the real value was of course 1 mark or so.

Edited March 10, 2022 by GermanFan

[RonS2112]

On 3/8/2022 at 6:25 PM, ComicFill said:

Look at youtube or instagram. There are plenty of comic influencers in their 20s and 30s.

Yes, and almost every one of them are about slabbing and flipping, to the point where they might as well be talking about pieces of plastic and not comic books anymore.  It's not even clear how many of these guys have ever read the stories they have encased in plastic.  I wonder -- if/when prices seriously correct and a few of these guys get really burned, how many are going to stick around?

[troydivision1]

On 3/10/2022 at 12:34 AM, Mecha_Fantastic said:

And you can't even give new readers a break and say 'hey kid, pick up the omnibus, you get all the stories cheap.' Many are out of print and going for a grand or so, though Marvel has been better now at putting some of the pricier ones back into print. It was terrible for many years for those that'd missed out on the initial print run. Never affected me, bar one, which I still got cheap, but I felt for all those who wanted the material and just couldn't pony up the money for them, let alone single issues. 

This is a great point.
My little guy (5YO) loves comic related stuff.
BUT is limited to getting $1 (reprint) comics.
Because it is in no way feasible for me to introduce him to a story / character at $3.99 per issue.
There have been one-offs where I have relented because he loved the cover / interior art BUT 95% of the time it is reprints.
Oh, let me take this opportunity to say F U Marvel and DC for your full price 'facsimile' books.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Troy Division

[1Cool]

On 3/9/2022 at 8:48 PM, Gregd said:

Boy, if I was new to his hobby, these posts would make me think twice 😞 

Understand that it’s an opinion, but all this talk about the hobby’s demise doesn’t really get new collectors excited to jump in. These boards can be a bit doom and gloom at times. 

Why?  Based on what I'm hearing (and have said) is a majority of comic books are dirt cheap and there is a plethora of great series that can be had for only a handful of dollars.  If you are entering the "hobby" to only buy the hot key books then I would agree things would look a tad bit gloomy.  But if entering the comic book hobby is concentrating on only the key books then I question why you are entering the comic collecting hobby in the first place?  Is it for future price increases or the love of the comic books?  A bunch of us got into collecting comics with an eye on prices of the books but if it is your only joy in terms of the books then they are a commodity at that point and the market sure seems inflated right now.

[Qalyar]

On 3/10/2022 at 7:15 AM, 1Cool said:

Why?  Based on what I'm hearing (and have said) is a majority of comic books are dirt cheap and there is a plethora of great series that can be had for only a handful of dollars.  If you are entering the "hobby" to only buy the hot key books then I would agree things would look a tad bit gloomy.  But if entering the comic book hobby is concentrating on only the key books then I question why you are entering the comic collecting hobby in the first place?  Is it for future price increases or the love of the comic books?  A bunch of us got into collecting comics with an eye on prices of the books but if it is your only joy in terms of the books then they are a commodity at that point and the market sure seems inflated right now.

Honestly, if you're interested in anything like a mainstream title -- especially if you don't care about chasing top condition slabbed books -- it's a pretty good time to be a run collector. Sure, you're going to have some holes in those runs where the speculators have pushed prices on the keys up to crazytown, but the speculator money isn't being dumped into the rest of the runs right now.

And honestly, from a value perspective, there are probably three ways comic pricing can go long term. The current status quo might endure, with the keys being increasingly viewed as investment commodities separate from the traditional "collecting" perspective, and the rest of the books stay more or less where they are, supported by the niche interests of non-investment collectors. Or the keys crater and the people who treated this as an investment get washed out. Or the keys stay largely stratospheric and interest starts to spread out to surrounding issues. We're 5, 10, 20 years from knowing the answer to that, and it's going to depend on a lot of factors. But, if you assemble good runs of viable titles, you're probably don't lose big unless the whole market bites it, and then you're still not out as much from a dollar perspective as the investment class would be. If the rising tide lifts all boats, then, hey, congrats. And, regardless, you got to collect and enjoy a lot more individual issues than the guy down the street who only wants the big-dollar books.

[1Cool]

On 3/10/2022 at 10:26 AM, Qalyar said:

Honestly, if you're interested in anything like a mainstream title -- especially if you don't care about chasing top condition slabbed books -- it's a pretty good time to be a run collector. Sure, you're going to have some holes in those runs where the speculators have pushed prices on the keys up to crazytown, but the speculator money isn't being dumped into the rest of the runs right now.

And honestly, from a value perspective, there are probably three ways comic pricing can go long term. The current status quo might endure, with the keys being increasingly viewed as investment commodities separate from the traditional "collecting" perspective, and the rest of the books stay more or less where they are, supported by the niche interests of non-investment collectors. Or the keys crater and the people who treated this as an investment get washed out. Or the keys stay largely stratospheric and interest starts to spread out to surrounding issues. We're 5, 10, 20 years from knowing the answer to that, and it's going to depend on a lot of factors. But, if you assemble good runs of viable titles, you're probably don't lose big unless the whole market bites it, and then you're still not out as much from a dollar perspective as the investment class would be. If the rising tide lifts all boats, then, hey, congrats. And, regardless, you got to collect and enjoy a lot more individual issues than the guy down the street who only wants the big-dollar books.

Looking at the past you can give an educated guess as to what the future will hold.  In the 90s we had wild speculation on sports cards with most cards thrown away to concentrate on chase cards - worse now then back then.  Companies like Wizard hyped up comics for very thin reasons - now we have hundreds of hype websites and speculators who fill that void perfectly.  In my opinion E-Bay lit the match for comics to crash in the 1990s - way too much supply compared to demand to keep LCS prices.  Heck - I'd guess that quite a few books have still not recovered the prices that were getting before the 1990s crash but thankfully so many books have exploded that nobody cares about filler copies going for $8 when they use to get $15 in a local comic shop.

The second comics are not seen as a viable commodity any longer we should see the opposite of the tide rising all boats since all books will probably be brought down to earth when the air gets released from the balloon.  The great books will fall right along side the hyped junk.  There are still plenty of us 40 - 50 year olds with cash galore in the market to seal up any small holes in the balloon but the balloon can only be stretched so thin. 

I'm not advocating running for the hills but I do believe it is prudent to at least see the balloon warning signs and act accordingly.

Edited March 10, 2022 by 1Cool

[october]

On 3/9/2022 at 7:48 PM, Gregd said:

Boy, if I was new to his hobby, these posts would make me think twice 😞 

Understand that it’s an opinion, but all this talk about the hobby’s demise doesn’t really get new collectors excited to jump in. These boards can be a bit doom and gloom at times. 

Lots of doom and gloom during a time of market strength. Can't imagine this place if prices ever went down significantly. Paper hands everywhere. 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 3/10/2022 at 11:26 AM, october said:

Lots of doom and gloom during a time of market strength. Can't imagine this place if prices ever went down significantly. Paper hands everywhere. 

If the ship starts to sink, this place will be bonkers.

[troydivision1]

On 3/10/2022 at 11:06 AM, 1Cool said:

Looking at the past you can give an educated guess as to what the future will hold.  In the 90s we had wild speculation on sports cards with most cards thrown away to concentrate on chase cards - worse now then back then.  Companies like Wizard hyped up comics for very thin reasons - now we have hundreds of hype websites and speculators who fill that void perfectly.  In my opinion E-Bay lit the match for comics to crash in the 1990s - way too much supply compared to demand to keep LCS prices.  Heck - I'd guess that quite a few books have still not recovered the prices that were getting before the 1990s crash but thankfully so many books have exploded that nobody cares about filler copies going for $8 when they use to get $15 in a local comic shop.

The second comics are not seen as a viable commodity any longer we should see the opposite of the tide rising all boats since all books will probably be brought down to earth when the air gets released from the balloon.  The great books will fall right along side the hyped junk.  There are still plenty of us 40 - 50 year olds with cash galore in the market to seal up any small holes in the balloon but the balloon can only be stretched so thin. 

I'm not advocating running for the hills but I do believe it is prudent to at least see the balloon warning signs and act accordingly.

I will submit one counter argument to great keys dropping in value.
The fact that high dollar assets can be used as collateral for loans / satisfy margin calls.
Won't get into the entire discussion of money laundering in the fine arts or housing market.
(But you can draw your own conclusions around the comic book OA market...)

[onlyweaknesskryptonite]

On 3/10/2022 at 10:26 AM, october said:

Paper hands everywhere. 

 

On 3/10/2022 at 2:01 PM, Pancakes! said:

Only if you're a flipper or speculator 

Yep.. 

At the same time those of us who would be just fine being buried with our books would welcome all of these guys just dumping their books. 

More for us.. 

[Gregd]

On 3/10/2022 at 3:57 PM, onlyweaknesskryptonite said:

 

Yep.. 

At the same time those of us who would be just fine being buried with our books would welcome all of these guys just dumping their books. 

More for us.. 

Nope- not a speculator. But would like to know that my collection isn’t going to be completely worthless someday. I love owning the books I do, but it still requires capital to buy them. (Have bought only a few books above $1000 - most are in the <$200 range).

I am making the point that for someone that is new to the hobby that is reading through these boards (and the hot topics) would probably be pretty disheartened by the assessment of some comic book experts here.  Not sure I would want to buy a book for even $100 if I felt that the money was going to be gone someday. And if folks say that ultimately books will be fairly worthless why wouldn’t I just come back 10 years from now to buy them all for pennies- why even buy anything now. Like I said, hard to grow the hobby that way.

[badback83]

My best friend is a 58 year old life long collector.  He has all of the SA and BA biggies.  FF 1, ASM 1, Hulk 1, 181, the list goes on.  We went to a show last Sunday.  He had 2 goals.  1, find issue 42 of Doctor Strange volume 3 and 2, find issue 15 of Eternals.  Both I think he found for a couple bucks a piece.  He was so happy.  Came up to me like he just found an ASM 129 for a buck or something.  Those issues completed his runs.  He’s absolutely a reader, also a collector.  But, he also does think about the financial side of his collection.  More so over the past 10 years or so. I see it at shows near me all the time.  People are excited buying dollar books just as they are buying 3k keys.  

[ComicFill]

On 3/10/2022 at 11:39 AM, Gregd said:

Nope- not a speculator. But would like to know that my collection isn’t going to be completely worthless someday. I love owning the books I do, but it still requires capital to buy them. (Have bought only a few books above $1000 - most are in the <$200 range).

I am making the point that for someone that is new to the hobby that is reading through these boards (and the hot topics) would probably be pretty disheartened by the assessment of some comic book experts here.  Not sure I would want to buy a book for even $100 if I felt that the money was going to be gone someday. And if folks say that ultimately books will be fairly worthless why wouldn’t I just come back 10 years from now to buy them all for pennies- why even buy anything now. Like I said, hard to grow the hobby that way.

If you are going to spend $1,000 on a spider-man 300 it should be because you like Venom so much you are willing to spend $1,000 to own it. That shouldn't change just because suddenly other people aren't. I'm not going to lie, it's fun to track the value of my collection. But as my wife likes to remind me it isn't actually worth money unless I sell it.

[ComicFill]

On 3/2/2022 at 3:04 PM, Rob said:

Nah, it won't stay at $9000.

You think it's going DOWN?

[Rob]

On 3/10/2022 at 4:51 PM, ComicFill said:

You think it's going DOWN?

Guaranteed.  Talking about 2.0's, last April, 2 copies sold for over $10,000.  This past Feb 5 one sold for $9500, then the last sale was $9000.  I would say the decrease has begun.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Rob

[dupont2005]

Wait until you get a look at an old Wizard price guide. I’m actually surprised they were worth something as recently as 20 years ago. I thought stamp collecting died long before that. I’ve never seen a stamp collecting store. I’ve seen some random stamps at junk shops for probably ridiculous prices based on e everything else in the shop, displayed next to some beat up Mercury dimes and an obviously fake Rolex