Gerber's Photo Journal Guide to Comic Books Vol. 1,2 3 3

[Professor K]

On 4/27/2023 at 5:54 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

I would say that if there are x graded, then there are at least 5x–10x ungraded.

 

On 4/27/2023 at 9:31 PM, fifties said:

I think you're being quite conservative.  My uneducated estimate would be more like 30-50 times in any grade.

 

On 4/27/2023 at 9:39 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

You may be right. The vast majority of GA books are locked away raw in private collections.

It depends on the book, I would think that with the big money and not tons in the cgc census books that at least half would be graded at this point. Maybe the higher the value the higher existing percentage is graded? The big DC's like AC 1, 27, and 16, there are well less than 100 graded each . Do you think there are more than that out there ungraded locked away?  But yeah probably true there are 10 to 50X more with most books. Lots of factors to figure in. Some of the early books from 1933 to 1937, it hard for me to fathom that with 5 or 10 on the census that there are another 20,or 50 or so out there. Even hard for me believe with the early Comics Magazine/Centaur, Fox and Fiction House, ect. up until 1941 that there could be more than 20 ungraded for every graded copy with most books. Hard to believe but I would believe it

I know those who had awesome collections already prior to 1999 didn't go send all their stuff to get locked in plastic prisons as soon as the doors opened. I wouldn't have either. 

Edited April 28, 2023 by Professor K
grammar correction

[Cat-Man_America]

On 4/28/2023 at 12:13 AM, Professor K said:

 

 

It depends on the book, I would think that with the big money and not tons in the cgc census books that at least half would be graded at this point. Maybe the higher the value the higher existing percentage is graded? The big DC's like AC 1, 27, and 16, there are well less than 100 graded each . Do you think there are more than that out there ungraded locked away?  But yeah probably true there are 10 to 50X more with most books. Lots of factors to figure in. Some of the early books from 1933 to 1937, it hard for me to fathom that with 5 or 10 on the census that there are another 20,or 50 or so out there. Even hard for me believe with the early Comics Magazine/Centaur, Fox and Fiction House, ect. up until 1941 that there could be more than 20 ungraded for every graded copy with most books. Hard to believe but I would believe it

I know those who had awesome collections already prior to 1999 didn't go send all their stuff to get locked in plastic prisons as soon as the doors opened. I wouldn't have either. 

The numbers can be calculated precisely within a fraction of a percentage point using the pie chart extraction method (preferably with meringue).   The old technique employing sun spots and measuring fluctuations in the magnetic poles proved totally inadequate because it failed to factor in residual dust particles in the atmosphere left over from Wertham bonfire vanity events. 

 

[jimbo_7071]

On 4/28/2023 at 1:13 AM, Professor K said:

 

 

It depends on the book, I would think that with the big money and not tons in the cgc census books that at least half would be graded at this point. Maybe the higher the value the higher existing percentage is graded? The big DC's like AC 1, 27, and 16, there are well less than 100 graded each . Do you think there are more than that out there ungraded locked away?  But yeah probably true there are 10 to 50X more with most books. Lots of factors to figure in. Some of the early books from 1933 to 1937, it hard for me to fathom that with 5 or 10 on the census that there are another 20,or 50 or so out there. Even hard for me believe with the early Comics Magazine/Centaur, Fox and Fiction House, ect. up until 1941 that there could be more than 20 ungraded for every graded copy with most books. Hard to believe but I would believe it

I know those who had awesome collections already prior to 1999 didn't go send all their stuff to get locked in plastic prisons as soon as the doors opened. I wouldn't have either. 

Even with the mega-keys I think that there are far more ungraded copies out there than graded copies. After all, collecting is a hobby that attracts hoarders. Don't think for a single second that there weren't guys out there hoarding keys back when they were still affordable. Many of those older collectors may have collections that are "finished," and those collectors might not even have much awareness about slabbing, the CGC census, etc. Others may not want to pay to slab books that they're not ready to sell; slabbing keys is expensive.

It would be an interesting experiment to see how many copies of, say, Tec 27 would pop up if CGC were to offer free slabbing of that issue in all grades.

Edited April 28, 2023 by jimbo_7071

[Professor K]

On 4/28/2023 at 2:07 AM, Cat-Man_America said:

The numbers can be calculated precisely within a fraction of a percentage point using the pie chart extraction method (preferably with meringue).   The old technique employing sun spots and measuring fluctuations in the magnetic poles proved totally inadequate because it failed to factor in residual dust particles in the atmosphere left over from Wertham bonfire vanity events. 

 

That's highly significant.

 

On 4/28/2023 at 5:26 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

Even with the mega-keys I think that there are far more ungraded copies out there than graded copies. After all, collecting is a hobby that attracts hoarders. Don't think for a single second that there weren't guys out there hoarding keys back when they were still affordable. Many of those older collectors may have collections that are "finished," and those collectors might not even have much awareness about slabbing, the CGC census, etc. Others may not want to pay to slab books that they're not ready to sell; slabbing keys is expensive.

It would be an interesting experiment to see how many copies of, say, Tec 27 would pop up if CGC were to offer free slabbing of that issue in all grades.

Huh, interesting. Ok I'm convinced. 

[jimbo_7071]

On 4/28/2023 at 9:15 AM, Professor K said:

That's highly significant.

 

Huh, interesting. Ok I'm convinced. 

One thing that you could do is to track the number of copies of a key—such as Tec 27—over time. Plot how many copies of Tec 27 were in the census on 1/1/2003, 1/1/2004, 1/1/2005, etc. and then fit a curve to the data.  If your theory that a large percentage of the mega keys have already been slabbed, then I would expect to see the slope of the curve flattening out over time as the number of raw copies available for slabbing started to dry up. I don't think that that data is readily available, but I think that you could mine the CGC message boards for it.

I would probably exclude 2001–2002 because a) CGC was very new and unknown to many collectors  and b) most of the copies that were circulating in the market were probably slabbed within a short span of time in those early years.

Edited April 28, 2023 by jimbo_7071

[Professor K]

On 4/28/2023 at 12:33 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

One thing that you could do is to track the number of copies of a key—such as Tec 27—over time. Plot how many copies of Tec 27 were in the census on 1/1/2003, 1/1/2004, 1/1/2005, etc. and then fit a curve to the data.  If your theory that a large percentage of the mega keys have already been slabbed, then I would expect to see the slope of the curve flattening out over time as the number of raw copies available for slabbing started to dry up. I don't think that that data is readily available, but I think that you could mine the CGC message boards for it.

I would probably exclude 2001–2002 because a) CGC was very new and unknown to many collectors  and b) most of the copies that were circulating in the market were probably slabbed within a short span of time in those early years.

But I'm already in the middle of the pie chart extraction method! That's good thinking, really. I'm just gonna take you's guy's word for it. 

It's kind of funny though, even if someone has the highest graded copy of a book there's always a good chance somewhere tucked away in some little room somewhere there's probably a nicer one. 

[fifties]

On 4/28/2023 at 2:26 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

Many of those older collectors may have collections that are "finished," and those collectors might not even have much awareness about slabbing, the CGC census, etc. Others may not want to pay to slab books

I think you left out an important and possibly large segment of the motives of older (or any) collectors not slabbing.  And that is that many of us like to read the contents.

Quote

 I would expect to see the slope of the curve flattening out over time as the number of raw copies available for slabbing started to dry up. 

Not sure I understand this; are you referring to the entire number of raws, or only the ones that the collectors intend to slab?  I would believe either way though can simply not be determined.

[Telegan]

Along the lines of this discussion, how many of these CGC entries are "re-slabs" after the popularity of "CPR" (crack, press, and resubmit) has risen where you you could see multiple entries that could be the same comic?  I'm guessing it's not a huge percentage of any grade/comic, but still.  Then you consider maybe 30 graded comics (or less) for some of these PCH issues, for example, would it be crazy to think that maybe at least 2 to 3 of those are CPRs?  I honestly don't know, but that would be around 6-10% of the "census" in the case of those comics.  In some cases, maybe the CGC census is also overstating things.  Maybe CPR doesn't affect CGC population on GA comics as much as I'm thinking is possible, but just something I was thinking about the other day, but maybe I'm off track.

[jimbo_7071]

On 4/28/2023 at 5:42 PM, Telegan said:

Along the lines of this discussion, how many of these CGC entries are "re-slabs" after the popularity of "CPR" (crack, press, and resubmit) has risen where you you could see multiple entries that could be the same comic?  I'm guessing it's not a huge percentage of any grade/comic, but still.  Then you consider maybe 30 graded comics (or less) for some of these PCH issues, for example, would it be crazy to think that maybe at least 2 to 3 of those are CPRs?  I honestly don't know, but that would be around 6-10% of the "census" in the case of those comics.  In some cases, maybe the CGC census is also overstating things.  Maybe CPR doesn't affect CGC population on GA comics as much as I'm thinking is possible, but just something I was thinking about the other day, but maybe I'm off track.

People who CPR scarce books often send in the labels so that the old copies are removed from the census. Those sellers have a vested interest in not having excess copies show up in the census; the scarcity adds to the value. For common, modern books, people might not bother sending in the labels, but for scarcer GA books they often do. You'll often see the old grade disappear from the census when the new grade appears.

[jimbo_7071]

On 4/28/2023 at 4:33 PM, fifties said:

Not sure I understand this; are you referring to the entire number of raws, or only the ones that the collectors intend to slab?  I would believe either way though can simply not be determined.

I'm talking about the entire number of raws that have not been slabbed. I would expect to see a fairly steady increase in census numbers as older collectors die, which usually leads to the selling of their collections, with key books typically being slabbed.

[fifties]

On 4/28/2023 at 8:48 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

I'm talking about the entire number of raws that have not been slabbed. I would expect to see a fairly steady increase in census numbers as older collectors die, which usually leads to the selling of their collections, with key books typically being slabbed.

It actually might work opposite of that, though.  The older collector would have likely been well aware of the slabbing services, and simply chose not to use them for whatever reason.  On the contrary, his heirs -on the assumption that they know nothing about comic books- would just as likely NOT be aware, and simply sell them on The Bay, or to a dealer.  Ergo, census numbers would not change appreciably. 

[jimbo_7071]

On 4/29/2023 at 12:10 AM, fifties said:

It actually might work opposite of that, though.  The older collector would have likely been well aware of the slabbing services, and simply chose not to use them for whatever reason.  On the contrary, his heirs -on the assumption that they know nothing about comic books- would just as likely NOT be aware, and simply sell them on The Bay, or to a dealer.  Ergo, census numbers would not change appreciably. 

The heirs might sell the books raw, but those books would be scooped up by dealers or flippers who know all about slabbing.

[fifties]

On 4/28/2023 at 9:34 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

The heirs might sell the books raw, but those books would be scooped up by dealers or flippers who know all about slabbing.

Valid point!

[BitterOldMan]

For the OCD types like me, I keep the dust jackets wrapped in library quality Mylar.

[Primetime]

On 4/29/2023 at 9:22 AM, BitterOldMan said:

For the OCD types like me, I keep the dust jackets wrapped in library quality Mylar.

My A-J volume came with the dust jacket and is still in one all these years. My K-Z volume was unfortunately missing the jacket and was sold to me that way. 

Edited April 29, 2023 by Primetime

[Robot Man]

On 4/29/2023 at 9:22 AM, BitterOldMan said:

For the OCD types like me, I keep the dust jackets wrapped in library quality Mylar.

No OCD for me. I bought them strictly for reference and store them with my other reference books “un-bagged”. I do take off the DJs when I use them. They have held up quite well for all the use they have gotton. Money well spent! 

[Professor K]

On 4/29/2023 at 12:22 PM, BitterOldMan said:

For the OCD types like me, I keep the dust jackets wrapped in library quality Mylar.

 I took mine off as soon as I got them. Now I have to think of a place to put them.

Speaking of places to put stuff. I'm asking here in the GA section because well, you guys and girls know a lot of stuff.  I bought this safe yesterday. Usual retail is over 500 bucks, BJ's regular price is just under 500, but it was on sale for 279.00 yesterday so I bought it. Plus I gave the kid 20 bucks for helping me get it in my car, in the pouring rain. Took us like a half hour. Tight fit. Without him I'd still be in the parking lot trying to get it in the car. Anyway just got it in the house and up the stairs all by myself (was-not-easy).

Here are some generic pics of it. Feels very sold, heavy, about 200 lbs. Says its fire proof for 90 minutes and waterproof up to 72 hours but I doubt that long. It's 29 inches high interior space and it's wide enough to to stack two rows of cgc books inside.

So I'm asking real quick, don't want to divert too much attention away from this awesome discussion, Are there any problems/dangers with storing books graded or ungraded in a safe like this that you guys know of? Probably somewhat airtight and all. It also came with 4 good size bags of Silica Gel crystals. Not sure if I should keep them in there or not. Thanks. 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by Professor K
question added

[Ryan.]

On 4/29/2023 at 3:23 PM, Professor K said:

 I took mine off as soon as I got them. Now I have to think of a place to put them.

Speaking of places to put stuff. I'm asking here in the GA section because well, you guys and girls know a lot of stuff.  I bought this safe yesterday. Usual retail is over 500 bucks, BJ's regular price is just under 500, but it was on sale for 279.00 yesterday so I bought it. Plus I gave the kid 20 bucks for helping me get it in my car, in the pouring rain. Took us like a half hour. Tight fit. Without him I'd still be in the parking lot trying to get it in the car. Anyway just got it in the house and up the stairs all by myself (was-not-easy).

Here are some generic pics of it. Feels very sold, heavy, about 200 lbs. Says its fire proof for 90 minutes and waterproof up to 72 hours but I doubt that long. It's 29 inches high interior space and it's wide enough to to stack two rows of cgc books inside.

So I'm asking real quick, don't want to divert too much attention away from this awesome discussion, Are there any problems/dangers with storing books graded or ungraded in a safe like this that you guys know of? Probably somewhat airtight and all. It also came with 4 good size bags of Silica Gel crystals. Not sure if I should keep them in there or not. Thanks. 

My understanding is that air tight is a non ideal environment for comics. 

[Professor K]

On 4/29/2023 at 5:05 PM, Ryan. said:

My understanding is that air tight is a non ideal environment for comics. 

Thanks Ryan. I've looked through other threads about it.  Didn't get much from them. If anyone has any suggestions pm if you could. For now I'm just going to lock it when I go out. 

 

[Ryan.]

On 4/29/2023 at 8:23 PM, Professor K said:

Thanks Ryan. I've looked through other threads about it.  Didn't get much from them. If anyone has any suggestions pm if you could. For now I'm just going to lock it when I go out. 

 

That could all be speculative, for sure. I too haven't read anything definitive on the subject but I've been too scared to try putting them in a safe.