Jaydogrules

I would actually really like to see something like that played out, especially if it proves me wrong. ...it would...if "wrong" is even the correct concept here..... neither of us have anything of consequence at stake. Honestly.....I'd say. speculatively based on my personal experience ..... no less than 1500 (that's the easy part ) and no more than 8000.......some states have less than 100 and some, way more. I am comfortable with that range. Agreed. That's probably the ballpark. What were we arguing about again ? -J.

Jim, rfoii's point is well taken and his data is tangible, whereas yours is not. First, we have the census. A 15+ years worth of information that has been compiled. We see less than 1450 blue labels recorded by them, and the most common grade being a 3.0. Next, we see the vast majority of copies being sold as being slabbed. There are some raw copies that trade hands as well, but the VAST majority are slabs. Further the notion that people only slab a copy when they intend to sell is disingenuous and presumptuous. I personally own one copy and I slabbed it for preservation and presentation, not to sell. If people just slabbed to sell, why don't we see 2000 copies on the market right now instead of 20? I will slab a crappy modern if it gets to be worth a couple hundred dollars. And I'm just one guy. Am I the only person who slabs his own personal collection for this reason ? Hardly. (thumbs u -J.

All recorded sales - eBay, auction sites and dealers sites support this. The vast majority of sales on this book are stabbed sales. We cannot make the association that just because most comics are unslabbed, that most copies of any given comic are unslabbed - that would be a hasty generalization. Agreed. These statements of an assumed massive amount of AF 15 "shadow inventory" remind me a lot of what all the experts were saying about the purported shadow inventory of foreclosed real estate that all the banks supposedly had after the crash. That wasn't true either. -J.

Is this towards me or JDog? Personally, I don't really want people to behave in any way - this is purely a discussion to me. I am not looking in influence the market in any shape or form. My personal experience would say otherwise. I went to over a dozen conventions two years ago (the very largest had around 50 copies, most of them had less than 5 or so), I regularly check eBay (around 30-50 copies, most of which recirculate constantly), I monitor auction sites and comic dealers (both on the boards and those who have stores) and I can say I didn't see any more than a few hundred of copies on the high end. I can also say that the same books pop-up over and over again in market, particularly grades below 5.0. Now if I repeated that every year and only saw unique views each time, maybe after a decade I would start hitting meaningful numbers. I challenge your point that you can see in the four figures in any given year without being omni-present in the marketplace (every show, every store, every site, every sale). Unless you can provide more concrete evidence, this isn't any more believable than there are hundreds of hoarders out there with long-boxes full of AF 15s and that Big-Foot herself (yes he is a she) has a short-box full. I call "shenanigans." Don't know either of you by real name. And don't recognize your screen name enough to see any kind of pattern. But the poster you quoted I have seen before and noticed that he is often saying something with the purpose of influencing value. I don't think anybody would have to be "everywhere" to count 1K worth of AF15s in a year. And it would obviously it would take some effort to do that even if every copy was within walking distance. But if one made an effort to ID unique copies out there one could do so pretty much by going to cons and talking with dealers and collectors, looking at web sites (including this one). It is not worth my time to prove or disprove it, and probably not worth yours. But some guys out there like numbers enough that somebody might someday do that exercise. I find it odd that you "call shenanigans" and am not even sure what you're "calling" it on. Are you saying that anyone who suggests there could be more copies of a post 1960 book than you believe exist is not just wrong but actually dishonest? That would be taking the conversation to a bizarre place. The "shenanigans" piece is an attempt at humor. :shrug: You made a statement that one could view 4 figures of AF 15s in market with some effort, my experience says that number is too high. I pulled some quick numbers on eBay and looked at some major auction records and I can't find over 250 unique copies (I gave up when duplicates became by far the norm). This leads me to believe that your statement is a false observation or exaggeration on your part. If you don't have the ability or time to prove your assertion, that's fine but then I am dismissing it like many of the other claims on here to the existence of thousands of copies. My main argument in this thread and across the majority of discussion in the boards is that people make speculative statements as if they are facts. Nothing against you, but without numbers or some form of data to back up your claim it is nothing but conjecture. It really is nothing personal, but observational unsubstantiated claims are not adequate support as a part of a discussion or as a point in an argument. Considering that in 15 years less than 1450 blue labels have been unearthed (and probably closer to 1200 after factoring out the plethora of CPR's), I find your observations to be far more likely to be accurate than those who seem to believe these things are falling out of people's closets on a daily basis. -J. And PS: @ bluechip, I have never posted anything with the purpose of "influencing value". I'm not even sure how such a thing would be possible.

There are currently 1429 blue labels on the census. Of those, at least 10-15% have likely been CPR'd. It took 15 years for them to reach that number. That alone tends to dispute the notion that there are tens of thousands of these out there raw. In that time the book has exploded in value and even mainstream media reported on that 1.1 million dollar sale those years back. Even my 75 year old father who knows nothing of comics and little of pop culture knew he was looking at something of high value when I showed him my one copy. I would be extremely surprised if there were even 3000 copies on the census in the next 15 years. I'm sure guys like Gator know guys who know guys who have a stash of them, many of them raw. That means little if they never come to market, since evidently these people are so rich that they can keep a box full of multiple copies of one extremely valuable comic in mylars in their attic (or wherever they keep them). I have no doubt there are many copies still out there raw. As I said before I do believe many, many of those will be restored, or very low grade. Sure they still count as copies, and have value, but I think the vast majority of the cream of the crop of this book is already in a slab. And as rfoii said, I too see the same slabs for sale, over and over again. -J.

Many, if not most, of these people who are "hoarding" have slabbed copies, not raw. Of the raw copies that are still left in the wild....how many of them are complete ? How many of them are at least in mid-grade condition ? How many of them have restoration? How many of them will ever be brought to market before they are destroyed ? Who knows ? No one knows. But I personally don't believe there's even a fraction remaining that many on here seem to believe there are. -J.

This is actually a good point. How would Gwen be present in the 616 universe during this time? I still say, "Pass." when it comes to this book. Others may end up proving me wrong, but eh. Not a book I want in the PC. A "real" fan would have both. Just in case. -J.

The 9.4 ended up selling for $2k. http://item.ebay.co.uk/291396683556?item_hash4=adaf9af4&LH_Complete=1&LH_BIN=1&LH_BO=1&_ipg=200&_pgn=1&rc=nt&rmvSB=true -J.

"This time will be different." -J. That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time. But it's already deflating. -J. And then if it starts expanding again, what will you say about that? Are you suggesting that once deflated, the balloon can never expand again? I know that's not what you're suggesting I think alternative media hype books essentially have the same life cycle and follow the same pattern. Especially the BA and newer ones. -J. I think the fact that it's Star Wars might change the equation a little. As I said, time will tell. Should be fun to watch "This time will be different." -J.

"This time will be different." -J. That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time. But it's already deflating. -J. Not according to GPA - the all-time recorded sale for a 9.4 @$400 occurred 3 days ago and the last recorded sale of a 9.8 was the 2nd highest recorded sale (and occurred last week)? Looks like the bubble is still blowing up... (thumbs u Uh, no. Every one of those ebay auctions you are referencing was shilled. Meanwhile multiple 9.8 copies offered on these boards (and now ebay) sit un-sold at $1500. That hissing sound you hear is the bubble already deflating. -J.

"This time will be different." -J. That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time. But it's already deflating. -J. And then if it starts expanding again, what will you say about that? Are you suggesting that once deflated, the balloon can never expand again? I know that's not what you're suggesting I think alternative media hype books essentially have the same life cycle and follow the same pattern. Especially the BA and newer ones. -J.

"This time will be different." -J. That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time. Exactly. Same thing with Guardians of the Galaxy with at least two more movies on the way, and a weekly animated TV series to be shown on Disney Channel. All bubbles burst, but enjoy the ride because Star Wars and GOTG have at least 5 years as being players now before their bubbles burst. My point is Star Wars and Guardians of the Galaxy are/will be going on an upward trend these next few years, while GSX 1 will just sit there. With no movement with GSX 1 we will find the inflation alone will make an investor lose money on the deal. Money now is worth less in 5 years. An example is if you spend $3000 on a GSX 1 CGC 9.8 now, and its still worth $3000 in 5 years, than you would have lost money because of inflation. I thought it was also commonly known the massive price drops basically all the Guardians books have suffered as well. Up to 70% in some cases. -J.

"This time will be different." -J. That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time. +1 At this point the shilling that occurred (and is still occurring in lower grades now) with this book to artificially pump up the price is well documented. The book is already more common in a 9.8 than any other legitimate, bona fide BA key, and we are likely only seeing the tip of the iceberg of how many high grade copies of this mass produced movie book that are out there. And as I already mentioned earlier, the book is off about 25% from it's inflated peak, at the moment and has quite obviously cooled substantially. The carnival barking that's occurring with this book is not supported by what's actually going on with it in reality. -J.

"This time will be different." -J. That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time. But it's already deflating. -J.

"This time will be different." -J.

Stan Lee created Gwen Stacey 50 years ago. That Gwen Stacey is dead. We have established in this thread ad nauseum that this is a "new" character that was created by Latour and Rodriguez that has nothing to do with Peter Parker's dead girlfriend. Stan Lee did not write, edit, illustrate, colour, or have anything to do with this book. So again, why have him sign it ? -J. -J.

Famous last words. If Af 15's go down then the hobby is obviously dead as well. Speaking of "long lines", there are, as I type, 25 copies of Fantasy #15, in various flavors, on eBay alone. If there were people in line to buy them, why would so many copies be available for sale? That there are lots of people who would pay "for the right price" or "if they had the money", but that doesn't really count, does it...? I would buy one for the right price. Am I "in line" to buy one? No. There are long lines for Fantastic Comics #3. There are plenty of people in line for a copy of that book....any copy. And there have been times...hard though it may seem...that even the "third most important comic" has gone down in demand, and therefore value. I don't believe in comic books as an "investment". But AF 15 still has another solid decade of growth in front of it. Easy. -J. Why is it easy to say that AF #15 has another ten years of growth, and what stops that "solid" growth after that decade? I'm not a psychic. Just call it an educated hunch. -J.

Famous last words. If Af 15's go down then the hobby is obviously dead as well. Speaking of "long lines", there are, as I type, 25 copies of Fantasy #15, in various flavors, on eBay alone. If there were people in line to buy them, why would so many copies be available for sale? That there are lots of people who would pay "for the right price" or "if they had the money", but that doesn't really count, does it...? I would buy one for the right price. Am I "in line" to buy one? No. There are long lines for Fantastic Comics #3. There are plenty of people in line for a copy of that book....any copy. And there have been times...hard though it may seem...that even the "third most important comic" has gone down in demand, and therefore value. I don't believe in comic books as an "investment". But AF 15 still has another solid decade of growth in front of it. Easy. -J.

Another raw popped up on ebay and immediately one-bidded for $1200 again. http://www.ebay.com/itm/231497306799?_trksid=p2055119.m1438.l2649&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEBIDX%3AIT -J.

Stan Lee created Gwen Stacey 50 years ago. That Gwen Stacey is dead. We have established in this thread ad nauseum that this is a "new" character that was created by Latour and Rodriguez that has nothing to do with Peter Parker's dead girlfriend. Stan Lee did not write, edit, illustrate, colour, or have anything to do with this book. So again, why have him sign it ? -J. Because Spider-Gwen is based on a character created by Stan Lee. Plus when you think Marvel, you (at least I do) associate it with Stan Lee. I'm just saying... Plus I also got my Spider-Gwens signed by Stan so I am biased. (thumbs u -J.

Stan Lee created Gwen Stacey 50 years ago. That Gwen Stacey is dead. We have established in this thread ad nauseum that this is a "new" character that was created by Latour and Rodriguez that has nothing to do with Peter Parker's dead girlfriend. Stan Lee did not write, edit, illustrate, colour, or have anything to do with this book. So again, why have him sign it ? -J.

I don't see that as being as silly as it sounds. There will be a lot of SW collectors who aren't even comic collectors wanting SW 1, whereas I cant see non collectors who are fans of the X-Men movies clamoring for GSX 1. SW is a rising star (pun intended). I wouldn't disregard it so lightly. It`s that generation that grew up with GSX 1 and Uncanny X-Men 94 that has this attitude. They can`t fathom that GSX 1 and Uncanny X-Men 94 have lost some importance with the current crowd. That won`t ever admit that Star Wars #1 is a player. To them they`ll always be considered toy/movie comic book tie in, when in fact we know Star Wars #1 has a better future going forward than GSX #1. At least they will acknowledge Star Wars #1. Good luck with them ever saying anything positive about GI JOE #1 or Transformers #1. Toy tie ins. Nobody is talking about losing importance. If anyone lost importance, it wa SW and it has bounced back due to new movie buzz. Most of these movie books were more valuable as tinder than as collectibles just a few years ago. You're basically arguing that Luke, Chewbacca, Hans, Leia and Darth have a better future than Wolverine and the rest. Who ha had a better run than Wolverine alone? Not too many characters. And even more importantly, you are completely missing the point that both the SW generation and the GSX #1 generation are the same generation. They came out 2 years apart. Movie books are a flash in the pan. Comics will eventually fade slowly but those movie books will burn out quick. How does that affect Star Wars #1 from being profitable now? It`s hot, and it`s making money, just like the Guardians of The Galaxy keys did. Why is that a bad thing? What is wrong with making money on a hot movie book like Star Wars #1? Seems like a better bet than holding onto a GSX#1 doing a slow burn that will get eaten up with inflation. Your argument could have been made 15 to 20 years ago when comic book movies didn`t have an importance like they do now. Let`s check back in a year to see if GSX 1 is hotter than Star Wars #1. I agree that increasing prices in comics is good for comics. My hypothesis is that since that Star Wars did not originate in comics, the increases to SW 1 are likely not sustainable post movie launch. Versus X-men being primarily driven by comics themselves will do a better job holding value. To your point, the amount of money or percentage increase depends on when you acquire the book, when you sell it and your point of comparison. There are a lot of factors in this not entirely addressed. Still don't believe GSX 1 is great "investment book" though and SW 1 is primed for a buy/press and flip scenario right now - which is my personal opinion. I think SW 1 is already running out of gas in terms of price run up, and is already off about 25% from its (artificial) highs. The comic movie market speculation madness has indeed changed (evolved, devolved, however you choose to see it) since X2 came out, and if night crawler has a substantive role in the next movie, there could indeed be a movie bump in the book. Not likely on the X Men 4 level, as that is a silver age book, and quicksilver and the scarlet witch now evidently being called "Inhumans" by marvel and "Mutants" by fox assure their presence in multiple movies. They both do have a lot of sweet first appearances though. -J.

Can someone also explain to me why the f--- Stan Lee has signed it ? -J. Ughhhh, He created Marvel comics. Your point ? -J. PS: And no, he didn't.

Can someone also explain to me why the f--- Stan Lee has signed it ? -J.

I have worried that the Joker and Harley Quinn sequences in this movie would end up being played as the "comedy relief" portions. This quote, I hope, has not just confirmed that. -J.