Jaydogrules

You are incorrect. No sir you are incorrect. Show me where a SA mega key has declined in value since 1980. Instead of sweeping blanket statements...back it up with data. Every year OSPG would increase the price of keys like hulk 1, TOS 39, JIM 83, etc.ive not see I showed earlier that since 2002 Hulk 181 has increased in value. You love to tell people they are wrong but how about some substance behind your posting? There is no SA mega key that has declined in value over 35 years. Or even 10 years. Probly not even 1 year. I love a good gratuitous absolute sweeping statement as much as the next guy who loves to argue but this simply can't be true if you include all grades over all time. I definitely agree the books are worth more over 5, 10, 20 , etc years, but there have been declines in there. It isn't a complete upward trend in all grades in all "mega" keys... My only other thought would be that the term "key" (mega or otherwise) has changed over the last several decades as characters have come in and out of popularity. Especially when you extend the timeline beyond 15 years. Of course this isn't central to the argument but is worth noting. Example of a decline? The burden of proof really should be on you, but.... GPA on Incredible Hulk 1 2.5 2008 High = $2,225 2009 High = $2,050 2010 High = $2,000 2011 High = $1,912 2014 High = $9,000 2015 High = $7,300 2008-2015 % change = 328% That's not a bad return on a seven year buy and hold after all. (thumbs u -J.

It's only dangerous If you use the past as an absolute, and aren't prepared for the worse, which is something a lot of real estate investors weren't prepared for. A lot of those people weren't even prepared to buy real estate in the first place, let alone prepared for the worse. Using the past to predict future outcomes can be a great tool when utilized correctly, though it can be dangerous when the full spectrum isn't taken into account. I think people took the real estate market value for granted, and If they had taken a closer look at how real estate has played out in previous times, they may have been a bit more hesitant to invest their money into it. I think ignoring the past is an even more dangerous move than trying to incorporate it to your advantage. Comics can be relatively inexpensive (especially compared to real estate). If someone was to invest $800 in Hulk 181, and the book crashed, then so what? You may have lost $800, but you certainly won't need to file bankruptcy (unlike the real estate crash). On the flip side, If someone was to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into the same book, then yeah, it's risky, because If that book crashes, you now have to face a major loss. The solution here is to not put all your eggs in one basket. Regardless, there's always two sides to a coin. I'm not saying it's impossible for there to be an AF 15 crash, or a Hulk 181 crash, but I am saying that investing in comics doesn't have to be as risky or dangerous as some people here are making it out to be. Great post. (thumbs u And this same line of reasoning could be (should be) applied to "any" investment. I think many of the nay-sayers just think the notion of comic books as an "investment" is silly. And it is, if that's all you are putting your money into. But as with stamps, coins, antiques, fine art, classic cars, watches, wines, etc., comic books are indeed a fun and diversified place to put your money. Sure, it's important to have your stocks, and bonds, and blah, blah, blah too, we all know that. But something like a Cap or Action 1, or Tec 27 on down to this recent "Spider-Gwen" cr@p can be treated as "investments" in their own rights (to varying degrees of course). Though an Action 1 would be the bluest of the blue chips, and "Spider-Gwen" would be the penniest of day-traded pink sheet penny stocks. My 2 "Spider-Gwen's". -J.

Unfortunately not everyone is fortunate enough to work for a company that offers matching 401 k benefits, stock options, etc. And if someone is willing to put $500, $1000 into one comic book, he would be foolish to not treat it at least as a quasi-investment. That's a lot of money to most people. I would pick the IH 181 as well from an "investment" standpoint, but it's definitely not by a landslide. Let's not overlook or minimize the importance of GSXM 1. It was, after all, not just the first appearance of storm, nightcrawler, etc, but also of the classic x men team that brought the title back from the dead. It's also wolverine's first appearance as an "x-man" (and 2nd full overall). This book is cheaper than 181 and is far less common on the census. It wouldn't take much for this book to spike, perhaps not to 181 numbers, but it could conceivably close the gap. The 181 is probably a safer bet but with it's lower entry point the GSXM 1 probably has more upside. Okay I just changed my mind, the GSXM 1 might actually be the better pick after all. -J.

Kryten may be on to something trying to hoard them. -J.

New GPA high for a 9.6 that doubled the prior high: http://www.ebay.com/itm/RARE-WOLVERINE-1-CGC-9-6-DEADPOOL-VARIANT-J-SCOTT-CAMPBELL-Retailer-Exc-NM-MINT-/141575936111 Sale looks legit, as seller has already left feedback for buyer. I'm surprised to see a 9.6 go for that much. -J.

Because everyone knows those auctions were shilled? -J.

I don't think people are surprised that it's ramping up, but rather the apparent and sudden magnitude. Which is reasonable since it is all tracked back to those three manipulated ebay auctions and some pumping and a bit of misinformation being circulated on these boards. An $1,100 book? Sure, why not. $1800? Um....no. -J.

Dream has to be "In Dreams" by Roy Orbison. It's a beautiful, haunting song and the creepy factor is amped up because of the Blue Velvet tie-in. I have some songs for ya'll, although not too eerie: (thumbs u 'Dream Lover' - Bobby Darin 'Mr. Sandman' - Chordettes 'Don't Wake Me, I'm Dreamin' - Christopher Williams 'All I Have to do Is Dream' - Everly Brothers 'Sweet Dreams' (Are Made of This) - Eurythmics 'Dreamin' - Vanessa Williams 'Enter Sandman' - Metallica What about "Dreaming of You" by Selena? And "Dream a Little Dream of Me" by Cass Elliot? -J.

I was watching Iron Man and thought how well AC/DC worked as backing music to the movie and then thought what would the backing tracks to The Endless be? There may or may not have been an amount of Guiness involved At least you're a happy drunk poster! -J.

nothing is bulletproof, and that describes some of the books that people are going to get taught a serious lesson on, once the whole economy and comic market with it, corrects. If everyone thinks it and is doing the same thing, that should be your first warning that its overbought... True in all markets and all assets, not just comics. I agree with you. My statement referred only to content however, not "value". (thumbs u -J.

Some good points here. And I recognize some people choose to view this book as a "key". I do not. This term is fluid and can be personal within even a collector's own stash of books. There are a handful of bulletproof "keys" that literally everyone agrees on. I do not believe SW 1 is one of them. It does not matter how many copies it sold because it is not an original comic book property. It's basically just a glorified souvenir mag for the movie. Our medium is an innately creative one, and is at its best when innovating. This is why we have so much alternative media being adapted from comic books, and not vice versa. This is what has made our hobby cool, a cultural phenomenon, and some of these books so dang expensive. SW 1 has its place as probably the best selling movie book of the seventies. But that's because the movie was a hit. That in and of itself does not make it a "key" in this hobby however. My 2 cents. -J.

What you talkin' about Willis? -J.

Daaaaaamn. We should all be so lucky to shop where you shop. -J.

This actually isn't surprising since the only recorded sales at this price point are 3 sketchy ebay auctions. -J. That's not really a strong argument. Getting that old a book in 9.8 isnt easy, even when its one that common. The rarity of the UHG helps to counter the downward price pressure of the books high print run. Almost all books that have a high print run/high value at the top end, tend to have parabolic price curves. Whether current FMV is $1000 or $2000, has no bearing on the drop off between a 9.8 and 9.6, regardless of any fake sales. I'm afraid I will have to vehemently (though respectfully) disagree with you. If you want to consider this book a "key" (I don't), once you compare it to actual, bona fide original material comic book keys from the same era, this is probably THE MOST common book found in a 9.8, and is even more common in a 9.8 than some keys are in a 9.6 or even grades below that. And this is with books that have had more than double the submissions to date than SW 1 in some cases. It's amazing to me how some folks posting in this thread seem to be getting closer and closer to calling this book "rare" as if to explain why this book "should" be "worth" $1800+ in a 9.8. Reminder: This book is not "rare", in any grade, at all, as Paul has also been explaining. And that is even before this artificial price spike which absolutely will bring out PLENTY more 9.8's, as well as numerous CPR's of 9.6's no doubt that will turn into even more 9.8's. Reality Check: GSXM 1- Total Submissions: 5,111 9.8's: 125 9.6's: 266 (still less than SW 1, 9.8) ASM 129- Total Submissions: 5,982 9.8's: 83 9.6's: 265 (still less than SW 1, 9.8) ASM 194- Total Submissions: 2,049 9.8's: 200 Incredible Hulk 181- Total Submissions: 7,219 9.8's: 91 9.6's: 262 (still less than SW 1, 9.8) X-men 94- Total Submissions: 4,214 9.8's: 25 9.6's: 73 (still less then SW 1, 9.8) 9.4's: 203 (ditto) 9.2's: 285 (ditto) Conan the Barbarian- Total Submissions: 2,265 9.8's: 36 (and fewer copies in every single grade below than SW 1, 9.8 alone) Iron Man 55- Total Submissions: 1,707 9.8's: 48 (and fewer copies in every single grade below than SW 1, 9.8 alone) Star Wars 1- Total Submissions: 3,343 9.8's: 309 (and counting) As you can see, SW 1 9.8 is anywhere from 30% higher to more than 10X more common in 9.8 than all of the books above, which are generally accepted as being some of the most important and valuable books from the era. It's one thing to be a fan and to like seeing a book seemingly going up in value. But let's not re-write history here or completely ignore the reality of actual facts and data points. In actuality, based on what other, similar aged (and also rarer in 9.8 grade) books go for in a 9.6 grade relative to their 9.8 counterparts, a 9.8 SW 1 is probably legitimately valued at around $1,100, based on what 9.6's are trading for (around $550-$575). This is still a nice and very sizable bump over the $550 9.8 SW 1's were going for just a matter of months ago, and probably what they would be going for without the pumping and ebay auction manipulation that's been going on to skew the numbers. My 2 cents. -J.

(thumbs u Make sure to post it here when you get it. Good luck. -J.

Hi and welcome to the boards. The last 8.5 went for about $560, right around the same time the book seemed to experience a bit of a surge. Right now I would say an 8.5-9.0 would be in the $700 to maaaaaybe $1,000 if it were slabbed at either of those grades. Raw, in that condition I probably wouldn't go over $750 though. -J.

This actually isn't surprising since the only recorded sales at this price point are 3 sketchy ebay auctions. -J.

-J.

Other than ebay, where has this book "sold" for at these prices ? The couple by Greg on the boards? His price point was influenced by those shilled ebay auctions which were run up by the same two "bidders" all three times and "won" by the same "buyer" twice and were subsequently reported to GPA. That an uninformed or casual shopper might believe the book is actually now "worth" this only proved yet again why shilling works and is done in the first place. Fruit from the poisonous tree. As far as other books in the run also going up in value. No that isn't surprising at all either, since a rising tide will raise all boats. -J.

I think the strong reaction is probably due JDOGs use of the term "shillers". Who knows if the market for these books is going to be up or down? I don't. As another poster mentioned, there are many factors that come determine market prices and trends. I do think that interest has been rekindled with the movie announcements. JDOG points out that two bidders bid on the recent ebay auctions. Interesting research, but he runs off the rail when he says "without any bids from regular bidders" Can you be MORE regular than when you bid on every auction. "this guy and his friend" There is no indication that the two bidders are friends. As a matter of fact, guys who always outbid me weren't on my good friend list. "phony "buyers"" A buyer that bids on a book and pays for it isn't phony. "sketchy ebay sales" The sales look legit to me, validated by Gregreece's sales. "obviously conspiring with each other" Again, no evidence "SHILLING!!" This is not a word to throw around for a legit auction or sale. In most cases shilling is illegal and implies a conspiracy between a seller and a bidder to drive up the price. Since this isn't what is happening here, the term shouldn't be used. Collector, Speculator, Investor, Hoarder, Genius, insufficiently_thoughtful_person, Fanboy are all terms that could be used for the Buyer, but Shiller is not one that should be used. JDOG may not like the fact that book has recently risen in value. I wish I had loaded up a couple of years ago. He may be right that the price may drop. He may also be wrong. Apart from the movie hype, he might consider a couple of additional reasons why JDOG may be wrong about the long-term outlook for this book. There are around 300 9.8 certified copies by CGC. There are almost that many competitive registry sets. Collectors that register their books in the registry are a very small subset of collectors. Demand for this book? Of course. Each transaction requires a buyer and a seller. High prices will normally chase out more books, if they are available. But currently, if we generously say the market is $2000 per certified 9.8 book, and there are 300 of them, the total market value of the book is $600,000. Like most markets, most of the books are not currently for sale, so the market price per book is set by the prices agreed upon by the current buyers and sellers. You have some extra cash, maybe you want to build a position in Star Wars 1s. You wouldn't have to be Warren Buffett to do it, and there have certainly been worse investment ideas. There is currently a Signature Series book with a $3500 bid on it. If I think I can buy nice 9.8 copies, get them signed and sell them for more, I might take the chance. You are entitled to your interpretation of those auctions and your opinion of this book's real "FMV". I don't care about the book one way or the other, as my signature line should suggest, late Bronze Age movie adaptation books are not in my wheelhouse. I just loathe (ebay) shilling and was a victim of it in my early CGC collecting days, and when I (or someone else who PM's me) see a sketchy bidding pattern in multiple auctions on one book that artificially inflates the price over an unnaturally compressed period of time, I will point it out. That's kind of my "thing" around these parts. (thumbs u -J.

Well the most recent auction ended without any bids from any regular bidders, and we now have two of the last auctions at this new inflated price point decided by the same two bidders and "won" by the same guy. http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=231479894655&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565 Whether one believes this guy and his friend are just rabid fans trying to buy up all the copies of the same book for some reason at the most expensive prices possible, or these are phony "buyers" trying to run up auctions to spike GPA, I for one, wouldn't participate in any auctions with either one of them bidding in it, and I would look at this new apparent price point with a very skeptical eye. -J.

Looks like somebody just pulled the trigger on an "incomplete" 0.5 copy that is an easy new GPA high by a lot, and only $50 less than the GPA high for a complete 0.5 copy: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Amazing-Fantasy-15-CGC-5-C-OW-Pages1st-Spider-Man-Marvel-Mega-Key-Presents-Well-/291318428090?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43d3ee71ba -J.

Greg I'm sure you know I was not implying your own sales are not legit. My point is that the only publicly available sales data that we have are the sketchy ebay sales that are showing up on GPA that facilitated this apparent and sudden spike in "value". And since many dealers and sellers price their items based on GPA/closed ebay sales you have a "fruit from the poisonous tree" scenario that can (and often does) create at least a temporary self-fulfilling prophecy in the perception of "value". The problem is, when it begins this way, it does not usually end well for those who buy in at the apex of the bubble. My 2 cents. -J.

Nice books! Seems we're seeing a lot of SS copies. Anyone else notice the new 9.8 that some lucky dog pulled on an 8b that just hit the census (bringing the total to 4)? I wonder if we'll be seeing that for sale soon. -J.

I understand where you're seeing some of this, but... I think with this comic in particular, what we're seeing is a Star Wars fan base that far, far, far, exceeds that of the comic collecting community. Yes, there are tons of this comic that's been hoarded - in COMIC BOOK terms. But the fan base of Star Wars is just far BIGGER than what has been hoarded, and the Star Wars fan base that's interested in this first Star Wars comic is bigger than what's been hoarded. How big? Well the new #1 sold over a million copies.... and there aren't a million copies of the 1977 #1. I'm not saying you're wrong - eBay is a grotesque cesspool of weasel-like half humans preying upon the unwitting - I'm just not surprised at the rise in this book, heading into the movie. I agree that with the release of the new comic and the new movies on the way, "some" increase in value and interest is to be expected. But how much validity can truly be found in these new and sudden apparent price points when all three of the auctions that establish said price points are tainted by what are fairly obvious shill bidders/buyers? -J. How is it obvious? I see 2 established bidders bidding. I don't see anything to make be believe either bidder is associated with any of the sellers, which is required for this to be shilling. No it isn't. They are two bidders (or one person with two accounts) obviously conspiring with each other in EVERY SINGLE AUCTION to artificially drive up prices on this book. Of course you are free to draw your own conclusions, regardless of how obvious the (apparently successful) attempts at market manipulation this is. But my research and conclusions reached based on this spike in "FMV" which is derived solely from those ebay sales is that it is built on quicksand. -J.