Jaydogrules

Blaze, Marvel is going the "synergy" route with its comics and movies. Peter Parker is the star of Marvel's top selling comic book. Miles Morales' prior title was canceled due to poor sales, and his new title just launched last year sells less copies every month, with barely 30,000 sold most recently. The minority train only goes so far, and Marvel isn't stupid. They know which side the bread is buttered on, and they know who butters it. And when it comes to Spider-Man, that person is and will always be, Peter Parker. (thumbs u I understand people have stacks of books to sell, but right now the only thing being "sold" is a pipe dream. -J.

I've always agreed that the character is solid, and he is here to stay. I think the book was undervalued too... current explosion is crazy though, it'll be a $75 slab when it settles probably. Unless something movie wise does happen... which I've been very negative on from a possibility perspective. Time will tell. If you look at it from the perspective of a bunch of 30-60 year old comic guys, Peter Parker is the man. Heck, I grew up on the guy and along with the X-Men (we will forget about Captain Carrot for street cred purposes) his stories were my favorite read. Some might be making the mistake of believing we are the ones these movies are geared toward appeasing. We are dealing with a media company (Disney) that has a core business based on theme parks, family friendly cartoons, toys and movies. I know Sony has the rights but Marvel (Disney) is now steering the ship. I believe if you look at the target audience the younger Miles Morales makes sense to Disney's long term financial interests. If you are looking for a $15-$20 speculative book you could certainly do worse. I've got 10 of the first prints at an average price point of $12 and change. 3 or 4 are 9.8 candidates. Having said that I'd agree the $330 9.8 price point most likely will not stick unless we get some news. $75 may be a little harsh. I could see the price settling closer to $150-$175 for a nice 9.8 slab. Blaze, you're my dude but come on man. -J.

Consensus seems to be those are cosplayers making this more of an easter egg. I'd still grab one at cover though. Cameo! And real first appearance of the costume. -J.

Maybe people think it looks better than a VF-? -J.

Considering what a 1.8 went for, so did I. -J.

It's working ! -J.

And so it begins again: Step 1: A thread is started on the boards to pump a book. Step 2: A couple of exorbitantly high fake "buy it nows" are clicked on ebay to spike GPA and create a "paper trail" on ebay. Step 3: Coming soon! -J.

Great copy. Looks under-graded. Congrats! -J.

Congrats, nice pull. (thumbs u -J.

Boom! Nice copies! Thanks my friend! (thumbs u Major congrats to pull that raw off eBay was a big score. I'm just glad you were asleep at the wheel when I got that one of comic link lasts year. -J.

I voted for 2X, even though I know that is likely incorrect but because I feel there are far lass than the 20k plus that is currently leading in the polls, and I wanted to balance things out a bit, for the following reasons: 1) Everyone knows who Spider-Man is, unless you just walked out of a cave and stumbled on an AF 15 in an "abandoned" storage locker, you know that it is a valuable book. 2) The dramatic price increases have not noticeably accelerated the current submissions. 3) A significant percentage of the existing slabs are CPR's. 4) It does not surprise me that comic book collectors know other comic book collectors/dealers who have multiple raw copies. That just means there are less raw copies out there that other people have. 5) I would surmise that most raw copies out there are either low grade and/or restored. Yes, they still "count" as copies but they will appeal to a different market. None of this is to say the book is "rare" in absolute terms. The book can be found in many low-mid grade ranges, at least on most days. But obviously, even with the copies that are out there, the demand is not enough to keep a lid on prices, at least for now. -J.

Shhhh...people are making money in here. -J.

I guess we are just going to agree to disagree with this guy. He refuses/ignores facts, articles from Comichron that explain it very clearly, statements from larger retailers and people in the know. We are all insufficiently_thoughtful_persons and Jaydog is the only one that can figure this out. Actually despite the sturm und drang I don't believe Larry and I are really disagreeing on the likely print run of the Hughes variant based on the preliminary numbers of the main print run....about 2000. There's a picture of one guy with 15 of them on a piano a few pages back for crying out loud. The book isn't rare. -J.

I appreciate the link, but I don't think this says what you think it does. -J. I don't know what else to tell you. You seem incapable or unwilling to comprehend. Again, I understand just fine. Recalledcomics.com is a great source that explains how variants work and how to calculate (guesstimate) their availability based on print runs of the regular covers. (thumbs u -J.

Indeed it did. Diamond does not disclose the print runs of variants. There will be plenty of Hughes copies to be seen on the market for a very long time to come. -J.

I appreciate the link, but I don't think this says what you think it does. -J.

Yes. That's how variants work. (thumbs u Comichron does not include variants and diamond does not disclose the print runs of variants. I thought everyone knew that? That's why we can only estimate the amount of variants based on print runs. See.... recalledcomics.com. -J.

That isn't even close to correct. That print is including the x retailer variants at 3000/1500 (plus whatever Midtown orders on those variants/10k/5k?) per store. Subtract those out and you have a general idea of the 1:25/1:100 variants. Furthermore, if a shop orders 74 copies, then they get 2 Ankas and 0 Hughes. The print run might be 100k in real orders, but only 500 or so Hughes and 3000 Ankas because of the way each shop orders. It isn't like Marvel just prints that amount because of the print run. I think people forget that a lot. This is incorrect. The variants' print run is indeed based on the print run of the main book. So 2000 for the Hughes is not out of the ballpark, as for every smaller mom and pop shop that didn't order enough to get even one, there are just as many big guys that order 200++ copies or more to get multiple variant copies. A book with a 200,000++ print run will have waaaaaaay more than 500 copies of a 1:100 variant out there, come on. There are what, 100+ on ebay alone right now? And at the end of the day, the print run of the variant is only part of what affects value. Scarcity on the market is the other. (thumbs u -J. I am going to have to disagree with you on this. Let me break it down for you: The stated print run was 200k copies or whatever. This figure INCLUDES the shop variants. Do you think Marvel sold 1million copies of Star Wars #1? That included the 100+ variants. That is where these numbers come from these days and that is part of the reason Marvel does them. They love to get the printing numbers higher and they also love to make money. Anyways, I think we had about 20 different retail variants that you have to subtract from that 200k number to get to the actual print run. Then you have to kind of guess what the shops would order. I know I have about 11 LCS/Diamond accounts within 30 miles of my house and I know of one store that would be getting a Hughes variant. I also don't think it is very out of the question that 100 out of 500 or whatever the print run may be of the Hughes Variant are up on Ebay the very day it is released. I am not sure why you think this isn't possible? For the record I am not saying the print run is 500..I was just showing examples. I would imagine the actual run on this variant is between 700-1300, but probably on the lower side of that figure and definitely not near 2000. You are free to disagree, you are still however, incorrect. There will be "at least" 2000 copies of the Hughes out there based on the print run. That's actually how variants work. By variant standards, it is not "rare", and if you really think 20+% of all copies of the Hughes variant in the world are up on ebay alone for sale right now, you may want to re-think the long term viability/popularity of this character and that book. None of the what if-Gwen stuff is "rare". Not even the Land variant of EoSV #2. This stuff is and will be slabbed and flipped left and right until the carcass is completely bled dry. (thumbs u -J. I am not sure if you are not listening or just do not understand. I will break it down one last time to see if you can grasp it. The stated print run was around 200k books. You have to subtract out the 20 shops (roughly) that ordered the variants from that 200k. They had to order at least 3k/1500 on those variants in order to do that and some shops did 3 variants (conquest) and some shops may have ordered more than 3k/1500 (Midtown probably does closer to 10k/5k). That leaves you with around 100k-125k regular covers. Of those numbers many, many of those books are going to shops that are not ordering enough to get the 100 book incentive (and that also doesn't include the Blanks as per JJ). Those copies all come right off of the top and will not be counted. This leaves whatever is left and in what groups of 100 they ordered. This would leave the print run around 700-1250 or so and probably on the lower end (as I stated earlier). The book came out yesterday and you have a hard time understanding why 20% of the potential print run would be on ebay now? That doesn't make any sense to me. I bet 75% of the Phantom print run was on ebay a few weeks ago. Were you able to grasp that part? I am fine with you disagreeing with me, but you just keep stating the print run is based on the initial print run and your facts and understanding of how this works are clearly not accurate. If you have any actual facts feel free to insert them wherever. I understand just fine. I think the disconnect is that you believe that all of the variants count as part of the print run, when they do not. The variants are in addition to the main print run, hence the term "dealer incentive" to order x-amount of copies of the regular cover to get x-amount of variant covers in addition. (thumbs u -J.

I would but I can't afford it. -J.

That isn't even close to correct. That print is including the x retailer variants at 3000/1500 (plus whatever Midtown orders on those variants/10k/5k?) per store. Subtract those out and you have a general idea of the 1:25/1:100 variants. Furthermore, if a shop orders 74 copies, then they get 2 Ankas and 0 Hughes. The print run might be 100k in real orders, but only 500 or so Hughes and 3000 Ankas because of the way each shop orders. It isn't like Marvel just prints that amount because of the print run. I think people forget that a lot. This is incorrect. The variants' print run is indeed based on the print run of the main book. So 2000 for the Hughes is not out of the ballpark, as for every smaller mom and pop shop that didn't order enough to get even one, there are just as many big guys that order 200++ copies or more to get multiple variant copies. A book with a 200,000++ print run will have waaaaaaay more than 500 copies of a 1:100 variant out there, come on. There are what, 100+ on ebay alone right now? And at the end of the day, the print run of the variant is only part of what affects value. Scarcity on the market is the other. (thumbs u -J. I am going to have to disagree with you on this. Let me break it down for you: The stated print run was 200k copies or whatever. This figure INCLUDES the shop variants. Do you think Marvel sold 1million copies of Star Wars #1? That included the 100+ variants. That is where these numbers come from these days and that is part of the reason Marvel does them. They love to get the printing numbers higher and they also love to make money. Anyways, I think we had about 20 different retail variants that you have to subtract from that 200k number to get to the actual print run. Then you have to kind of guess what the shops would order. I know I have about 11 LCS/Diamond accounts within 30 miles of my house and I know of one store that would be getting a Hughes variant. I also don't think it is very out of the question that 100 out of 500 or whatever the print run may be of the Hughes Variant are up on Ebay the very day it is released. I am not sure why you think this isn't possible? For the record I am not saying the print run is 500..I was just showing examples. I would imagine the actual run on this variant is between 700-1300, but probably on the lower side of that figure and definitely not near 2000. You are free to disagree, you are still however, incorrect. There will be "at least" 2000 copies of the Hughes out there based on the print run. That's actually how variants work. By variant standards, it is not "rare", and if you really think 20+% of all copies of the Hughes variant in the world are up on ebay alone for sale right now, you may want to re-think the long term viability/popularity of this character and that book. None of the what if-Gwen stuff is "rare". Not even the Land variant of EoSV #2. This stuff is and will be slabbed and flipped left and right until the carcass is completely bled dry. (thumbs u -J. Besides the gaping hole in your math. ( the bulk of the shops that ordered would have never made the 200 threshold number, yet their orders still count towards the final print number ) Rarity isn't the only question here. It's demand & what the market will absorb. The market currently demands Spider-Gwen & Adam Hughes. Winner Winner, cash for dinner. I no longer have a horse in the game. My copies are out the door... Besides the gaping hole in your facts (it's a 1:100, not a 1:200), as I said earlier, for every smaller shop that didn't order enough for one, the medium and larger shops would have ordered more than enough to get several. But I would wager that, with the extreme hype surrounding this book, even many smaller shops ordered enough. And you're right, "rarity" isn't the only equation. Demand also is. So since it isn't rare, one will have to hope there is enough "demand" to prop up the price of a book where hundred(s) are immediately available for sale on one venue alone. -J.

The HA 9.4 copy went for $13,145. The comic link 8.0 copy went for a strong $4,907. As a side note the comic link regular 9.8 copy went for $1,500 (20% below the manipulated ebay auctions that reached "$1,875"), and copies are starting to appear on ebay at this particular price point now as well. I am personally still seeing the real current FMV of around $1,000-$1,100 for the book, with those bogus ebay auctions removed from the equation. -J.

So I heard back from the seller on the three book lot and he told me that he does not like to give grades on any of his comics and he referred me back to the pics. I have since asked him if he can take some pictures of the books outside of the bags and of the back covers, which would be helpful in ascertaining the condition of these high dollar items for myself. I await his reply.... *Edit: Seller added pics of the backs. (thumbs u -J.

That isn't even close to correct. That print is including the x retailer variants at 3000/1500 (plus whatever Midtown orders on those variants/10k/5k?) per store. Subtract those out and you have a general idea of the 1:25/1:100 variants. Furthermore, if a shop orders 74 copies, then they get 2 Ankas and 0 Hughes. The print run might be 100k in real orders, but only 500 or so Hughes and 3000 Ankas because of the way each shop orders. It isn't like Marvel just prints that amount because of the print run. I think people forget that a lot. This is incorrect. The variants' print run is indeed based on the print run of the main book. So 2000 for the Hughes is not out of the ballpark, as for every smaller mom and pop shop that didn't order enough to get even one, there are just as many big guys that order 200++ copies or more to get multiple variant copies. A book with a 200,000++ print run will have waaaaaaay more than 500 copies of a 1:100 variant out there, come on. There are what, 100+ on ebay alone right now? And at the end of the day, the print run of the variant is only part of what affects value. Scarcity on the market is the other. (thumbs u -J. I am going to have to disagree with you on this. Let me break it down for you: The stated print run was 200k copies or whatever. This figure INCLUDES the shop variants. Do you think Marvel sold 1million copies of Star Wars #1? That included the 100+ variants. That is where these numbers come from these days and that is part of the reason Marvel does them. They love to get the printing numbers higher and they also love to make money. Anyways, I think we had about 20 different retail variants that you have to subtract from that 200k number to get to the actual print run. Then you have to kind of guess what the shops would order. I know I have about 11 LCS/Diamond accounts within 30 miles of my house and I know of one store that would be getting a Hughes variant. I also don't think it is very out of the question that 100 out of 500 or whatever the print run may be of the Hughes Variant are up on Ebay the very day it is released. I am not sure why you think this isn't possible? For the record I am not saying the print run is 500..I was just showing examples. I would imagine the actual run on this variant is between 700-1300, but probably on the lower side of that figure and definitely not near 2000. You are free to disagree, you are still however, incorrect. There will be "at least" 2000 copies of the Hughes out there based on the print run. That's actually how variants work. By variant standards, it is not "rare", and if you really think 20+% of all copies of the Hughes variant in the world are up on ebay alone for sale right now, you may want to re-think the long term viability/popularity of this character and that book. None of the what if-Gwen stuff is "rare". Not even the Land variant of EoSV #2. This stuff is and will be slabbed and flipped left and right until the carcass is completely bled dry. (thumbs u -J.

Damn. That's rather aggressive. -J.

9 new 9.8's were been added between January 6 and February 17, 2015. That's an average of nearly 2 a week. And that's even before the fake price spike. This common book is neither "rare" nor "tough" in a 9.8. -J. See, I knew I'd get some clarity. Two a week for a book from 1977 is quite a bit. Thanks Jay, I wasn't sure how long ago I looked at the census. Compared to bona fide bronze age keys, yes the book is very common in a 9.8, and about to get much more common, no doubt. I did an analysis of the point a few pages back. (thumbs u -J.