Jaydogrules

-J.

More like around $250MM worldwide to hit break even (at a ~$150MM all in). -J.

Keep in mind, $230-240MM would put it well ahead of mass appeal critical darlings like Spider-verse and Shazam, as well as high worldwide earners like Justice League and even Venom. It would also put is ahead of every single X men movie released, not named Deadpool. Isn't a Watchman result (another weird, off kilter, bleak, art-housy style hero movie) that opened relatively strong for its day, but died quickly when word of mouth about its niche nature quickly spread) a more reasonable expectation, at least in the long term ? Also, with Addams Family and Gemini Man coming on the 11th, along with El Camino on Netflix, and then Maleficent and Z-land 2 the very next week, this movie will only be a one week #1 and will have an immediately crowded Halloween marketplace to challenge its potential legs week #2 onward. Added in that October was a traditional dead zone for big openings until literally just last year, there is no precedence to support those kinds of numbers. -J.

Oy vay lol. I forgot about that one. Should have stuck with the pyramid schemes. -J.

"It's gonna make a 100 mill because people in Scotland are talking about it!". What a hack. But then this guy is a known DC partisan. Let's ignore the obvious demographic problems this movie will have, let's make our predictions based on the amount of posters we see in England. Lol. Gaaaawd. Also, DC will spend AT LEAST $100MM on P&A for this film, a bare minimum for a film with a worldwide release, regardless of what the (alleged) production budget is (see, for example, "The Nun"). And speaking of truly terrible, miserable, epic failure of box office projections, remember this little gem from this same "professional Forbes writer"? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2018/10/05/review-venom-is-the-bane-of-sonys-superhero-plans/amp/ -J.

Nah man that was before I perfected the formula. -J.

Funny how my rough "numbers" (which are always pulled from industry accepted percentages) ended up being so close to what Deadline ended up reporting, ain't it? Lol -J.

Only when you don't take things personally. First day ticket pre sales are the ones that make the headlines. Big pre sales usually happen when multiple organizations/groups make bulk buys. Given that the biggest October opening ever, prior to Venom, was way down in the $55MM range, I would expect to be seeing something about gangbsuter pre-sales for this movie being a supporting indicator that this it is going to "smash records!". -J.

Hell I don't get paid or look for followers or clicks with my predictions, I do it for fun and to stoke friendly debate, and FYI, my batting average on here is better than his lol. And come on dude, how can you be so wrong with your projections, even when numbers are already starting to roll in?? So... no hyperactive articles about Joker smashing pre-sale numbers records ? -J.

Any word on presales from the last week ? I haven't seen any breathless articles hyping which other movies it has sold better than, or reports of ticket websites crashing. Also, I stopped following "Box Office Guru", last year, when it was this wrong about Venom, even after the movie was already out. https://mobile.twitter.com/giteshpandya/status/1048223066520805377 -J.

That is just one demo that films need to attract to get to "blockbuster" status, and my question wasn't limited to just that one demo. Venom, the movie people keep weirdly trying to compare this movie to, was watered (dumbed) down to a PG-13 for the explicit purpose of getting that diverse audience you need to get to "blockbuster" status. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/venom-a-dramatically-diverse-audience-makes-a-record-october-opening-1150068 Yes an R-rated Halloween came around a couple weeks later and knocked it out of the top spot, but then Halloween went on to "only" make $250MM worldwide- still a hit, relative to its budget for sure, but Venom went on to make $850MM. This is why I put this film more in the Halloween/Us/Get Out box, and am holding to my guesstimates for what this movie will earn when it finally comes out next week. -J.

Even Phillip's has stated this movie is loose and liberal with canon, and even among the most dedicated fanboys this is being called an "elseworlds" interpretation. Critics have to see movies as part of their, erm.... "job". That is not a case for females going out en masse and paying to see a movie. You really see that happening with this? -J.

Okay, I'll bite, and maybe I can finally get you to answer this question.... So, other than "incels", and the diehard comic book fanboys, who exactly is going to be the audience for this film to make it the "record setting blockbuster" fanboys and incels so desperately want it to be? Women ? Nooooo. Minorities? Lol, yeah right. Families? Come on. Kids? They won't even be able to get in to the theater. Date nighters? Good luck talking your girlfriend into that. So what large groups will get this thing to "four quadrant" status ? I think WB is making a big mistake with their marketing, trying to sell this niche/wanna be arthouse film to a mass market. They think slapping the "Joker" name and including a few other obligatory, very loose connections to Batman lore, will get people into theaters en masse. I see a lot of perturbed and offended general audiences, at least the ones showing up on Thursday and Friday, and bad audience buzz when word starts getting around that this is a dark, depressing movie about a 45 year old loser who "can't get laid", is a "professional clown" for a living and spends half of the over-long movie running through the streets aimlessly and the other half getting beaten up by somebody, either physically or verbally. Bring out the Oscar's? Lol sure. Like I said, nobody cares about critics (or even really the Oscars) anymore. Come to think of it, this movie sounds a lot like a recently concluded show on FX. It was called Baskets. -J.

I don't like any of your examples. The entire left side were shows with large casts and multiple storylines. And none of your movie examples are apropos either (especially venom, which has been a known "anti-hero" even in comics, for decades had a goodie two shoes in Brock to control the symbiote, and was mostly played for PG 13 laughs). American Psycho copped out at the end - "it was all a dream", and received its own share of controversy when it was first released anyway. Natural Born killers was deliberate, over the top camp, and everybody but the critics were in on the joke, and Monster was a biography. No, the best example is Hannibal Rising. Similar kinds of complaints then as now. Although I will grant you that whining about the apparent convergence of seemingly contemporaneous events within joker, and not, say... Hustlers (both movies essentially being about "sticking it to 'The Man'" to one degree or another, is a wee bit hypocritical. But again, Hustlers is mostly played for laughs (because drugging and extorting "rich guys" is so darn funny ). I also think the early propaganda out of VIFF about the movie may have ended up backfiring on it to a degree. -J.

Similar things were said about Hannibal Rising when that came out, and it went on to flop badly (even though it was actually not all that bad). And just like Hannibal Rising, many people were wondering what the point of a "Joker origin movie" is exactly when it was first announced. You get into a dicey situation trying to "humanize" an outright villain. Not an anti-hero, mind you. A villain. By making him the central character in your movie, with no opposing good force to balance things out, you are in fact humanizing him to some extent whether you are attempting to or not. Many of the reviews of this movie have stated as much. From several of the plot points described, it isn't very hard to draw parallels between events in this movie and events in real life. And evidently it is a little too "on the nose" for a lot of people. I still think this movie is a crass cash grab with a stupid message, and I'll be skipping it. It looks like exactly the kind of thing weak minded lunatics would latch onto to lash out. As already evidenced by some of these individuals that are already raging against this film's less than perfect rotten tomatoes scores, extreme defensiveness over even the slightest bit of criticism leveled against this film's tone and subject matter, and comments like "send in the clowns" during online disagreements, I'm at least seeing the seeds of some of this movie's critics being proven right. -J.

Yes, and it is totally fine for you to not know what you don't know. -J.

Foreign distribution tops out at about 10%, newsstands probably less than that going back 10 years, but my data on that isn't as certain. -J.

Like Paul mentioned, the entire point of the FOC is to make sure publishers are printing spoil. They typically round up to the nearest case pack, plus allow for damages. That number used to be as high as 15%, but with margins being so low now it is more like 3-5% according to multiple larger retailers. -J.

Actually, publishers have been printing to 5% or even less over actual orders for some time now, so yes, using Comichron as an estimate of print runs is both reasonable and valid. -J.

Not everybody lives on the internet or is breathlessly following every obscure article posted about this movie. It 2 was never going to be competition for Joker. But Hustlers (women) Gemini Man (date nighters) Addams Family (families) and Zombieland 2 (Halloween crowds) Are. -J.

Sold in a matter of hours for ~$2300... https://www.ebay.com/itm/MARVEL-AMAZING-SPIDER-MAN-667-Gabriele-DellOtto-Variant-F-VF-/283614637228?_trksid=p2349526.m4383.l10137.c10&nordt=true&rt=nc Seller called it a 7.0. Looks more like a 5.0 to me.... -J.

Why wouldn't you be ? Awesome book, definitely hang onto that one. -J.

Nice set! I still need to get me a nice looking subbed 7.5 #13 to go with my #12... -J.

What do I gotta do to get you to spitball a opening weekend guesstimate ? I am really wondering if you think the "controversy" (be it real or manufactured) will help.it or hurt it in the end.... -J.

I didn't say there wasn't anyone who liked the movie. But many of those VIFF people, especially the smaller critics, wrote reviews that looked more like propaganda, than the review of a real movie. I also noticed that most of the large critics from there were the ones who gave the film its early bad reviews. -J.