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TTA 59 9.6 sells for 10K

Started by Genesis Comics,

514 posts in this topic

delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
Posted
I was working in London the past few days and am now in Paris. :cloud9:

 

How's the weather?

 

Jim

 

It started snowing when we left the Lido around 1:30am tonight. However, it's been much colder in New York the past couple of weeks; the weather here has actually been an improvement. :eek:

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tth2

tth2

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Posted
Tim will disagree with me, but the difference between then and now is that price appreciation has outstripped income growth by an order of magnitude or more on some of these HG books over the past 15-20 years (due to the factors that you mentioned and others).

Of course I agree with you on that point, Gene. That's indisputable fact. We just differ on what the growth means. Does disproportionate growth mean that prices have risen too high, or that prices were simply too low 15-20 years ago and the massive price rises during the intervening period simply reflects market recognition of that undervaluation, particularly compared to other collectibles, and have only got prices up to fair market value now? Growth in value exceeding growth in incomes in and of itself means nothing.

 

The same arguments that Tim is using could easily have been applied to prime real estate until recently. Prices always went from strength to strength...until they got totally out of whack with underlying incomes (and availability of credit).

Well, prices of real estate grew faster than incomes during the 70s and 80s, and then during most of this century, but you would have been foolish to stay on the sidelines for most of those periods just because of that metric. Yes, there have been some price corrections since then, but if you were one of the people who sat on the sidelines during the 1970s, 80s or even 90s waiting for prices to come back, you're still waiting. (shrug)

 

Even the current "massive" price depreciation in real estate in most markets simply means going back only 5 years or so.

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lou_fine

lou_fine

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Here is an interesting thought. We all admit that SA books are far more readily available in most grades than GA books.That is not in dispute and very easily quantifiable. What is not so easily meausred is the demand for these SA books. That is the main ingredient for these crazy prices. We all :o at the prices the HG AF #15's command. Can you imagine what it would command if there was say only one 9.4, one 8.0 and a few at or below 5.0? I dare say it would outstrip any action #1 or tec 27.

 

Or, is it the abundance of these SA books that makes them so popular?

 

Thoughts?

 

actually, its the manageable supply of these books that fuels the higher and higher prices. If there were only one 9.4 AF15 it would have changed hands ONCE in the past 8 years and still be in that collection of whoever snagged the first graded copy. (which copy was it anyway?) At this point we'd all just be left to GUESS its value with no market place data to go on.

 

As long as there are a handful of copies of the keys to move around, prices will be able to escalate regularly... assuming the demand remains.

 

KC;

 

Since you are asking us for our opinions, I believe that Aman's point of view is bang on. (thumbs u

 

Once of the reasons why the SA Marvel books are so hot is that there is a relatively plentiful supply in the neighbouring grades to fuel the high prices in the uber high grades. Without this market activity in the books, there would be no benchmark with which prices could be fuelled higher and higher.

 

It should also be noted that the CGC generation of uber HG collectors would most likely not even be in the SA Marvel market if the books were as hard to get as you are contemplating. I believe one of the main reasons why these guys are in this particular niche of the market is they can easily satisfy their appetite and ego through a simple outlay of cash and a few upgrades.

 

If the books were actually as rare as you stated, they would lose complete interest in this niche of the market as their collecting personalities would probably not have the patience to wait decades for that 1 or 2 HG copies of a partucular book to become available in the marketplace. They would most likely be collecting uber HG Bronze Age books and have absolutely no interest in the GA or even the SA books given that environment.

 

In addition, there is no way the AF 15 would ever outstrip the Action 1 or 'Tec 27 in price. The current insane prices being paid for uber HG SA Marvels is a CGC grade driven market while the prices paid for GA books is really more of a book driven market. If the early SA Marvels were as rare as you state, the SA market would also become a book driven market and in this sense, Action 1 and/or Tec 27 will always be a bigger book than AF 15.

 

As further proof of this , I would say that if you look at prices in today's marketplace, almost any SA Marvel in less than VF/NM condition will probably sell only at a discount to guide. On the other hand, there are countless GA books that continues to sell at a premium or even multiples to guide in all grades across the board. I have even seen some raw GA or CGC PLOD books sell at a significant premium to guide which is something you would never see with the SA books.

 

Bottom-line: The relatively plentiful supply in surrounding grades is a critical factor in driving up the prices for uber HG SA Marvel books. hm

 

 

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lou_fine

lou_fine

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I dont understand the motivation behind the majority posts in this thread. IMO fans of the hobby should be happy. I cant tell if ppl are angry/jealous at/of the buyer/seller. Or perhaps people are scared that books they want are going to be out of financial range soon.

 

Congrat to the buyer and the seller (thumbs u . Im very happy for both of you.

 

anyone who says tta 59 isnt a key book i got 100 :makepoint: for ya

 

hey Green :hi:

 

i love the book which is why i bought a copy from you just recently. but to me these insane prices will only lead to one thing. a major crash just like the housing market.

 

Monstro;

 

I do not see a general crash coming at all in the the comic book market similar to the crash in the housing market or the recent stock market debacle. After all, you have to remember that both the housing and the stock market crashes are broad based crashes affecting all corners of the market.

 

With the comic book market, and SA Marvel in particular, you should realize that 99.9% of the books will sell only at a discount to guide. What you are referring to would in more statistical terms, be considered as an outlier and actually not representative of the overall market as a whole.

 

The bubble is only in the 0.1% uber HG portion of the market and yes, this tiny tiny portion of the market is subject to a crash, but nothing like the broad based crashes in the housing and stock markets.

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Aman619

Aman619

Posted
Posted

and millions of people own real estate. Many struggling with unfair mortgages they have no hope of paying off. How many people in the world actually ever paid $1000 for a comic book? 500? 1000? $5000 people?? The only dangers to collectible comics are how deep the economic crisis will hit this small pool.. and the longterm decay and disappearance of comic books as a medium.

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kc120us

kc120us

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Posted
Here is an interesting thought. We all admit that SA books are far more readily available in most grades than GA books.That is not in dispute and very easily quantifiable. What is not so easily meausred is the demand for these SA books. That is the main ingredient for these crazy prices. We all :o at the prices the HG AF #15's command. Can you imagine what it would command if there was say only one 9.4, one 8.0 and a few at or below 5.0? I dare say it would outstrip any action #1 or tec 27.

 

Or, is it the abundance of these SA books that makes them so popular?

 

Thoughts?

 

actually, its the manageable supply of these books that fuels the higher and higher prices. If there were only one 9.4 AF15 it would have changed hands ONCE in the past 8 years and still be in that collection of whoever snagged the first graded copy. (which copy was it anyway?) At this point we'd all just be left to GUESS its value with no market place data to go on.

 

As long as there are a handful of copies of the keys to move around, prices will be able to escalate regularly... assuming the demand remains.

 

KC;

 

Since you are asking us for our opinions, I believe that Aman's point of view is bang on. (thumbs u

 

Once of the reasons why the SA Marvel books are so hot is that there is a relatively plentiful supply in the neighbouring grades to fuel the high prices in the uber high grades. Without this market activity in the books, there would be no benchmark with which prices could be fuelled higher and higher.

 

It should also be noted that the CGC generation of uber HG collectors would most likely not even be in the SA Marvel market if the books were as hard to get as you are contemplating. I believe one of the main reasons why these guys are in this particular niche of the market is they can easily satisfy their appetite and ego through a simple outlay of cash and a few upgrades.

 

If the books were actually as rare as you stated, they would lose complete interest in this niche of the market as their collecting personalities would probably not have the patience to wait decades for that 1 or 2 HG copies of a partucular book to become available in the marketplace. They would most likely be collecting uber HG Bronze Age books and have absolutely no interest in the GA or even the SA books given that environment.

 

In addition, there is no way the AF 15 would ever outstrip the Action 1 or 'Tec 27 in price. The current insane prices being paid for uber HG SA Marvels is a CGC grade driven market while the prices paid for GA books is really more of a book driven market. If the early SA Marvels were as rare as you state, the SA market would also become a book driven market and in this sense, Action 1 and/or Tec 27 will always be a bigger book than AF 15.

 

As further proof of this , I would say that if you look at prices in today's marketplace, almost any SA Marvel in less than VF/NM condition will probably sell only at a discount to guide. On the other hand, there are countless GA books that continues to sell at a premium or even multiples to guide in all grades across the board. I have even seen some raw GA or CGC PLOD books sell at a significant premium to guide which is something you would never see with the SA books.

 

Bottom-line: The relatively plentiful supply in surrounding grades is a critical factor in driving up the prices for uber HG SA Marvel books. hm

 

 

Well said both Lou and Aman. And that was kind of my point. I was responding to the opinion's of some at the shock these SA books get because they're "common as dirt" And, as you so eloquently stated, it is because they are so common that has helped to fuel demand.

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lou_fine

lou_fine

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I know you're going to say to me that some people just like mint books. Yeah, but why do they like mint books to the point where they are willing to pay 100x or 500x vg? Status, ego, wagging.

 

As explained above, there was no one for me wag my to! (this statement will probably come back to haunt me someday when I'm running for office) In any event, you make it sound like collectors are broadcasting that they'll pay 100 or 500X vg for a mint book, but generally it doesn't work like that. They're more than happy to buy the book as cheap as possible. But if other collectors and dealers with a similar passion for NM copies of hard-to-find books have found after years of searching that they're really difficult to find, it stands to reason that they're going to charge a higher price if they do happen to find a NM copy, right? So if now you want that book and haven't been able to find it in NM ever, and are worried that if you don't buy it now then some other similarly addicted collector is going to snag it and make it disappear for the next few decades, what are you going to do? It's not that I want a better copy than that guy, I'm just afraid that if I don't buy it I won't ever have as nice a copy again. Don't underestimate the collector's compulsion, which can trump all rational thinking.

 

Actually, this comment about 100X VG price for a NM book reminds me of the late 80's when I first got into vintage comics and a prominent collector/dealer used to tell me over and over again the following 3 points:

 

1) If given a choice, you should always go for the key book;

2) If given a choice, you should always go for the highest condition copy; and

3) If given a choice, you should always go for the unrestored book.

 

Pretty common sense stuff, but the 100X low grade price was made when the spread was only on a 1:5 or 1:6 ratio. His rationale was that one day the marketplace would come to the full realization just how rare the true high grade copies were and this would be reflected in the marketplace accordingly. As a result, books that exhibited all 3 of the above qualities were sure to increase at a much faster rate than books without these same qualities.

 

He did make one mistake in his prognostication though. He was really referring to those rare untouched pure books that were able to survive the decades in their own natural high grade condition. He never mentioned anything about these same kinds of multiples being paid for newly manufactured high grade copies of vintage books. doh!

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