The Collapse of the Original Comic Art Market

[Bronty]

Sorry, I mean CALF bully

 

 

 

 

Mmmmoooooooooooooo!

[AKA Rick]

Going back to address the subject / title of this thread...

 

As with any other collectible category, the cream always rises to the top and remains there, but there will be a shakedown of the mediocre material that there's a vast supply of an little demand for.

 

I think the fact that original art is one of a kind, and whether available on a dealer's website, direct from an artist, or through an auction, the marketplace eventually dictates the value.

 

You sometimes see the same art being listed and relisted on eBay at the same price. That probably is a clear indicator of overvaluation to the market demands.

 

Sometimes an artist or dealer will have a piece for sale, then wait and wait and wait to sell it, then eventually post it up on eBay and usually the reality check of their $2,000 price tag ends up realizing a fraction of that asking price.

 

A good way to see rough valuation is looking at eBay's "completed auctions", and where the Heritage and Comic Link auctions ends, as well as when some of the dealer websites posts art up and what's "sold" and what still remains. ('tho, I know many of the sites immediately take down art that's sold so that only current up to date inventory that's available is show - - in part that's good for them to remove the clutter and not get inquiries, but in part it's maybe not great marketing, and maybe they should have a "sold" section, to show collectors what's sold, which may prompt them to visit the website more often and not sit on decision making and act faster on certain pieces).

 

As a buyer, I, unfortunately am seeing original art prices sustain or rise, at greater percentages than bank interest and wage adjustments for inflation.

 

 

 

 

 

[SINBAD888-migration]

I think we need a cage match between Captain Australia and Krazy Kat.

 

I have researched this krazykat very oft mentioned. Seems to have been correct in his/her predictions.

[AbsoluteK]

Good question sir, my extensive dealings with non-on-line auction houses has directed me to this issue, some now refuse to except auctions for Original Comic Art as the reserve is most times unrealistic and items are more often than not turned in (waste of time), I followed this up with not just ebay results but the examination of Comic Art that had still been listed for over one year, my results show that while almost all dealers push the idea that a crash is never going to happen (of cause they would), that in truth The Original Comic Art Market has in fact peeked and signs of a crash are evident.

 

Buying Original Comic Art NOW is risky, if the art is purchased just as an investment, buying for self pleasure does not contain a problem.

 

Do you have any actual data for this conclusion? All you've offered up is some vague claims. Do you have any kind of credentials or positive track record for making predictions of this sort? Professional investment advisors get paid all kinds of money for giving stock market advice and those people have to back up their predictions with data lest they be liable when they're wrong. What size sample set are you using? What is your margin for error?

All the conditions you mentioned about dealer inventory, auction house reserves and dealers pushing high prices have been true many times in the past. Why do they up to something different now- other than that you say so?

 

 

 

[Menace]

It has come to my attention that this Captain Australia might indeed be Richard Rae who should be banned from this site for knowingly selling fake art. If I am wrong I apologize to this Cap Aussie.

 

 

http://www.statueforum.com/showthread.php?t=131709

 

Ps. This may be old news I am not reading this whole thing.

[malvin]

Which thread did Richard Rae post in? Someone else said Richard Rae was posting there, and I found the thread you linked, but didn't find any posts from Rae, unless he was deleted and banned already

 

Malvin

[Menace]

Given his mention of knowing Steranko and Eisner, it appears to be the same Richard Rae. Richard organised one of the first comic cons in Australia in the mid-'80s (or thereabouts) and the guests were Steranko and Eisner.

 

I've never met Richard in person but I corresponded with him a number of times a couple of years back. It wasn't until about a year (?) ago when the issue of selling lightboxed Kirby pieces inked by Mike Royer as all original Kirby/Royer came up and I was disappointed to learn that he'd knowingly sold them as such

 

Of course, then followed the Vince Greck/Estate Clearing saga at the CGC OA forum where Vince claimed to be selling artwork from Richard's deceased estate (after people pointed out that some of the pieces Greck was offering had previously been offered by Rae). Only thing was that a check of the ABN register didn't turn up any business by the name Estate Clearing and Vince Greck was believed to have been Richard Rae under a pseudonym.

 

One of the pieces offered by Greck was a lightboxed Steranko/Buckler piece which was offered as all original Steranko/Buckler. However, the original pencils belong to Jim Warden and can be seen in his CAF gallery. Also, I contacted people who know Richard Rae and they assured me he was still alive and that his twitter account was still in use. Plus Mike Burkey said he'd been in recent (at the time) contact with Rae. (Richard's now popped up here and I'm guessing it's the same person).

 

Greck was later removed/banned from CAF for fraudulent behaviour and for taking an image from another CAF member's gallery (Terry Doyle) and offering it for sale.

 

Lately, a new member has turned up at the CGC OA forum known as Captain Australia who has some sort of conspiracy theory about abuse and bullying behaviour by CAF hierarchy - presumably as regards the action taken against Vince Greck.

 

I would not be surprised to learn that Captain Australia is identical with Rae/Greck as the poor grammar, misspellings and syntax are all consistent between the 3 identities. That's just my take on the situation.

 

 

[Menace]

That is what I was going on. If there is a Captain Australia there that was identified as Rae I assume this is the same guy starting trouble here.

[Cbone3-migration]

If there is a problem I see in the market, it is the lack of uniformity in pricing for "lower grade" art (panel pages that may be significant to an individual collector, but not to the history of the book from which they come). Someone lists an unremarkable page on eBay for an unrealistic price. It sit there in an eBay store and never sells. What it does, though, is create a baseline price that artificially inflates the market and keeps other pieces from selling. When what should be a $50 piece and has maybe 20 people who might be consumers is listed for $150, it sits and sits and sits because savvy collectors won't overpay by a multiple of three for panel pages as a general rule. I am very new to the hobby and don't want to build a reputation as a low-baller, so I just pass on some pieces that I would like rather than offering a "low-ball" offer that is really right in line with what the price SHOULD be.

[Terry Doyle]

Up to now I've stayed out of these Captain A**hole threads.

 

However folks here might now want to check my updates on the 'Vince Greck' thread . . .

[Mmehdy]

Just look at the 30 year retro on Russ Cochran...to see the STEADY growth of original art over the past 30+ years. Yea..the sky is falling...get real...great art at a fair price will bring you returns provided you hold on to it, it is in a lot of ways better than a comic book in a plastic case..you can enjoy. If you overpaid 10 years ago, you might still have overpaid. If you look at the most of the art over the past 30 years it has done you right...not Wirght( billy) but a good return. I lknow your game CA...there is something coming up on Ha.com you really really want or you have never had real "game" to buy a game changer piece...either way I am on to you.....,

[Menace]

If there is a problem I see in the market, it is the lack of uniformity in pricing for "lower grade" art (panel pages that may be significant to an individual collector, but not to the history of the book from which they come). Someone lists an unremarkable page on eBay for an unrealistic price. It sit there in an eBay store and never sells. What it does, though, is create a baseline price that artificially inflates the market and keeps other pieces from selling. When what should be a $50 piece and has maybe 20 people who might be consumers is listed for $150, it sits and sits and sits because savvy collectors won't overpay by a multiple of three for panel pages as a general rule. I am very new to the hobby and don't want to build a reputation as a low-baller, so I just pass on some pieces that I would like rather than offering a "low-ball" offer that is really right in line with what the price SHOULD be.

 

Comps are on sales not asking prices. Baseline prices set by asking prices are asking for trouble. Unfortunately a lot of people use Ebay as a baseline for pricing when they need to click that little 'completed listings' tab before they price an item.

[Balham's Finest]

I'm stuck in a 50/50 v at this thread.

 

 

[dgarthwaite-migration]

The thing about original art is that it's one of a kind. All it takes is one other drooling person with more money than you spent and anything you bought is a good investment. Just buy wisely. I own a lot of pages that cost me only $5 a piece. They'll never be worth thousands a piece, but I'm sure I could double my money if I was patient.

 

DG

[Unca Ben]

Some say the Original Comic Art Market has peeked, and is poised to crash, what will this mean for thousands of original art collectors who have just purchased items for investment only ? and what roll has the site ComicArtFans played in the markets down fall (if any)

-From 9/21/2012

 

Remember this? Quoted for posterity

[Terry Doyle]

Some say the Original Comic Art Market has peeked, and is poised to crash, what will this mean for thousands of original art collectors who have just purchased items for investment only ? and what roll has the site ComicArtFans played in the markets down fall (if any)

-From 9/21/2012

 

Remember this? Quoted for posterity

 

Wow, this was from nearly four years ago - how time flies!

[Unca Ben]

 

Wow, this was from nearly four years ago - how time flies!

It really does, doesn't it?

[AKA Rick]

This is a sensationalistic thread, with headlines fitting those Facebook sponsored posts with leading captions such as "You'll be shocked what happened next..."

 

The market may ebb and flow a bit, but there's no indicator of a crash. If anything there's been surges, but with refinement. The creme always rises to the top, so the upper echelon pieces (such as works by Kirby, Ditko, Romita, etc.) always maintains their value +/- 20% of the last sale.

 

I think the OA market is a bit more sophisticated now, in both the marketplace and the approach of collectors as they continue within the hobby. I feel, everyone comes in dipping their toes with a bit of caution and with price barriers, and slowly as they get more passionate and comfortable, budget and spending goes up. With that, there's some hindsight regret on some of the lower priced purchases,which subsequently gets resold. Junk is junk of course, 'tho one man's trash is another man's treasure, generally the mediocre stuff stays lackluster. I think OA is artist driven first, then by character, so if you banked on an artist who is no longer working and never lived up to their potential or characters who are not popular, then you might be sitting on dying assets. But, if you keep it mainstream with major characters from Marvel and DC, generally you're navigating in the right direction. Couple that by getting good storytelling pieces and popular artists and you increase your odds greatly.

 

The only trend I see is that many collectors are moving less money towards custom commissions from artists, due in part to the increasing rates (costs), the instability (uncertainty and gamble of the quality of the rendering and if the job even gets done), as well as the generally lower appeal when it comes to resale. Also, many long time collectors have pretty much gotten everything they wanted by every artist, so are no longer in pursuit. It's not crashing 'tho, just maybe not as strongly supported.

 

[Garf]

I think the OA market is a bit more sophisticated now, in both the marketplace and the approach of collectors as they continue within the hobby. I feel, everyone comes in dipping their toes with a bit of caution and with price barriers, and slowly as they get more passionate and comfortable, budget and spending goes up.

 

 

 

For me 2012 was the year in which I really started to get back into the hobby (beyond keeping up by reading TPBs) and moved towards collecting OA. I didn't ever think for a minute that I would ever have progressed this far into it either (not everything is posted on CAF yet).

 

The only reason that managed to sink my teeth in is because there have been quite a few reasonably priced watering holes over the years which have been pretty cheap. Had I known the market four years ago as well as I do now though I would have bought up a lot more average/mediocre stuff back then (which I had nostalgia for) on sight because I have seen those waterning holes slowly dry up in that period. It takes time to find your eye though so that couldn't really be helped. I am sure that plenty of us would have very different collections if we all bought the peices that slipped past whilst we deliberated.

 

That's not to say that I still don't ponder pages that are hanging around hoping they won't get sold for a while longer. I've spend the past couple of days doing that and the reasonable choices in the $100 - $300 zone are now not exactly plentiful, whereas I used to see them come and go more often. I don't fancy moving towards the $500 - $700 zone on a regular basis where things get more interesting, but as a fairly low tier collector of the 80's / 90's era I don't really feel I have many other places left to go.

 

Do you think in 2016 as many people can still start by "dipping their toes" into the hobby? Even if we ignore published art. When con season kicked in this year (especially) I have seen quite a few grumbles about what you would get for your money if you took $500 - $1000 with you.

[mister_not_so_nice]

Do you think in 2016 as many people can still start by "dipping their toes" into the hobby? Even if we ignore published art. When con season kicked in this year (especially) I have seen quite a few grumbles about what you would get for your money if you took $500 - $1000 with you.

 

YES !

 

If by "dipping their toes" you mean finding some sub-$200 pages.

 

I went to Phoenix Comic Con this year, 2016, and more than one artist had a 3"+ stack of OA. Any page in the stack was under $30. No, it wasn't Jim Lee, Arthur Adams or Jack Kirby, but they were 10-20+ year published comics pros. If you were familiar with their work/titles you could have picked up a few nice sequential pages for under $200. The recent batch of FREAKS AMOUR pages I put on CAF I got from such a stack. This is a comic I pull out to read every few years and their are 20+ year old pages from it sitting in the "discount stack."

 

Can't make it to a convention? Comb through the dealer websites, CAF, Tumblr, Twitter, DeviantArt . . . The art is out there, it's available, just do some legwork.

 

I think the problem is more that the sub-$200 isn't going to get the collector in the center of the circle-jerk for 15 minutes of back patting and is thus deemed not worth collecting.