The Collapse of the Original Comic Art Market

[vodou]

@Gene - not sure if you were directly replying to my double-quoting you or merely generalizing off it again...but I smiled...which does not mean I disagree!

 

But you can be right, at the wrong time, and still pay a steep price. In your dayjob the jig is up when the margin clerk calls (typically an hour or less before a savage market reversal that would have put you up $1m ) In our hobby it's watching yourself pay 10x more than you sold something for twelve years ago...to get it back.

 

Or to quote the both much-maligned and much-revered (depending on which blog you're on at the time!) John Maynard Keynes: "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent."

[RICKYBOBBY]

I think prices of some main stream art will continue to chug higher and some will drop lower.. Much lower.. can anyone know which pieces of art will go which way? Unknown.. I like to put this page out as an example.. Frank Millers dark knight page which features the death of Joker.. Sold at Heritage in 2011 for almost 42k ... Resold again just in Feb for a merely 21k

 

http://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/frank-miller-and-klaus-janson-batman-the-dark-knight-4-death-of-the-joker-page-2-original-art-dc-1986-/a/7033-92135.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

 

 

http://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/frank-miller-and-klaus-janson-batman-the-dark-knight-returns-4-the-dark-knight-falls-page-2-original-art-dc-/a/7124-92177.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

 

does this mean the market is collapsing? Bad time on selling? This guy just lost 16k + fees..

 

[Ironmandrd]

As an aside---the auction stats are interesting on that DK page--

 

2011

 

Bids + Registered Phone Bidders: 13

Page Views: 4,929

 

2016

 

Bids + Registered Phone Bidders: 19

Page Views: 1,970

 

More bidders the second time around but way fewer people looking at (interested in) that page.

 

[theflashunc]

Lots of great new fodder here. I'll throw my two cents on the woodpile as one who many would classify as some of those new entrants to the hobby, and I'm still splashing around in that shallow end of the kiddie pool.

 

I think I'm squarely in that camp Felix is talking about, but I've also got a foot in that nostalgia bit mentioned by several here too.

 

I started collecting because the thought of going the slabbed/high grade runs and keys route seemed soul-crushing. Like I was consigning myself to long-box hell. The alternative was owning a piece of some series I enjoyed, with art that a penciler/inker laid hands on themselves to create. Frankly that's way easier to hang on the wall and justify the the art history major'd significant other. And there is, frankly, a different interaction with artists buying pages that I don't think necessarily exists with getting books signed. I still point to the conversation I had with Paolo Rivera over my DD #1 page as one that never would have happened if I just brought my issue to get signed.

 

And as everyone here knows, it takes about 5 seconds to Googling to determine if you're a new entrant not awash in Google stock option money that "welp, that splash page from FF #48 is out of my range. Now what?" So I've gravitated towards what fits my budget, what -- as Gene points out -- I can afford to maybe take a bath on to sell, but overall buy what I like.

 

For me, at 35, my nostalgia is squarely in the 1990s, which even now is 25 years ago. DeFalco/Ryan FF, Aparo Batman, Jurgens Superman, Bagley Spiderman. Some of that stuff is extremely affordable. Some of it ain't. I don't have much interest in anything Bronze or Silver Age, mostly due to a combination of out of my price range and just not enough of that personal tug to justify stretching the limits I've set on my shallow budget. Maybe if prices moderate on that stuff my opinion changes.

 

But I also read a decent amount of current, creator-owned and indie stuff where pages are available at my level. Its nice to own a piece of Mind MGMT that Matt Kindt did from soup to nuts, or Eltingville from Evan Dorkin. I think that speaks to more Felix's point. I didn't get back into comics to see what Superman was up to, I got back in to read all the really unique, interesting stories being told by creators that you can't find anywhere else, and owning a piece of art is just that next step in collecting it. In my case, it was Godland after a friend rant and raved about how it was such a love-letter to Stan and Jack's FF and Silver Age cosmic in general.

 

Maybe one day I'll move to a deeper end of the pool, but there's plenty where I'm at that brings me joy and hopefully doesn't look too horrible on the wall.

[AKA Rick]

I think prices of some main stream art will continue to chug higher and some will drop lower.. Much lower.. can anyone know which pieces of art will go which way? Unknown.. I like to put this page out as an example.. Frank Millers dark knight page which features the death of Joker.. Sold at Heritage in 2011 for almost 42k ... Resold again just in Feb for a merely 21k

 

http://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/frank-miller-and-klaus-janson-batman-the-dark-knight-4-death-of-the-joker-page-2-original-art-dc-1986-/a/7033-92135.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

 

 

http://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/frank-miller-and-klaus-janson-batman-the-dark-knight-returns-4-the-dark-knight-falls-page-2-original-art-dc-/a/7124-92177.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

 

does this mean the market is collapsing? Bad time on selling? This guy just lost 16k + fees..

 

I think there are some pieces where two or more passionate collectors who get caught up in a bidding war cause prices to skyrocket as an isolated incident, much as a piece that goes underneath the radar (i.e. some unknowing seller puts it up on eBay with a low "buy it now") and sells for much less than market value.

 

Taking a look at historical precedent of similar (since all pieces are one of a kind) items, typically by artist and character/title, increases the odds of finding some sort of normalcy trend, similar to oddsmaking or polling where there's a low population sample size versus a larger one to analyze.

 

I don't see the market crashing, but we all see pieces sell for astronomical prices knowing or feeling that the buyer isn't making the purchase to quickly flip it. I think someone once said that buying comic art via auctions is typically like buying a car where right after, the price drops by 20% or so, but unlike a generic car and more like a classic collector's car, artwork could/should increase in value over the course of time (aging it like fine wine).

[Nexus]

Another great post, Eric. Be careful, you're setting the bar high for yourself!

 

I think nostalgia is wonderful, and I get that it's what attracts so many to the hobby. It's just not the only reason, and it's not even the primary reason for some of us. Would the bottom drop out of the hobby if the big dollar nostalgia collectors all dropped over dead tomorrow. Without a doubt. But it wouldn't effect me a bit, other than possibly eating up other people's disposable income in a way that might put some ancillary pieces into a realm that I'd be tempted to buy them!

 

Yes. Gene has one view of collecting OA. But that's not the only view.

 

My guest for the latest podcast, Benno Rothschild, talks about how he first started collecting art 40 years ago...at age 15. As he says, he was not interested in the art out of nostalgia. There was no nostalgia...he was 15!

[Nexus]

I think this is almost mathematically impossible, and younger collectors gravitating to Scott Pilgrim and such instead of vintage OA is certainly not going to help!

 

I think we may be talking in circles, or past each other, so again...younger collectors may not collect the SAME original art you collect, but they ARE collecting original art. So no, these younger collectors aren't likely going to keep the vintage art market afloat (or even save it at all). But they will keep OA going as a hobby. I'm becoming more optimistic that so long as comics are relevant, and so long as there are new readers, there will be a subset of those readers who will become interested in OA. And that won't be dependent on childhood nostalgia.

 

[BCarter27]

Prices can't keep ratcheting higher and outstripping both the current and next generation's ability to buy; at some point you discourage young collectors from entering the hobby and, in any case, if prices continue to outpace their buying power, it will be impossible to clear the market in the future at the prices that a lot of current collectors seem to think will prevail when it comes their time to sell.

 

I think we might have seen a micro version of this with the pinup illustration and Elvgren market. A weird situation where the buyers were still of the nostalgia age AND had the retirement cash to absorb the Martignette collection, effectively creating an lllustration art boom... but only briefly? Because the same buyers are now immediately divesting due to age. And the next generation is not picking up the baton, possibly because of lack of nostalgia. This may be an interesting area to watch as a barometer for things to come in the comic OA market. (However, the difference is the lack of sustained superhero characters.)

 

Case in point, I got priced out of illustration for a time. But prices may be relaxing again. So maybe I will dive back in. But how many illustration collectors my age are out there?

 

What about other slightly older, nostalgia-driven hobbies? How have those fared? Disneyana, sports cards, pulps, Big Little Books? I am sure All Story Tarzan will always do well, but the issues around it?

 

Maybe sustained super-heroes are the difference in this hobby that will keep it expanding.

[staffman]

Felix, Eric, and Gene -

 

I think you all have great points on this hobby. There is a great influx of new fans across the board entering into the market that is incredible to see. I can also see that there is a bit of concern with how high will the traditional desired pages keep climbing in price and affordability to those who want to keep collecting. And of course not everyone is buying the artwork for nostalgia and have their each personal reasons for why they got into this hobby.

 

I have also seen, as Felix has, an increase in women in the collecting field from when I help out at the shows. Besides Bryan Lee O'Malley, I've seen an uptick with artists such as Sean Murphy and Fiona Staples with female fans and collectors. In fact, if Fiona would start drawing traditionally I think she would be overwhelmed with what she would be able to sell in comic art. Of course her prints are a lot more affordable, but we cannot keep them in stock when she shows up at a Con.

 

Also, I've seen more fans coming in that have just recently gotten into comics and have no nostalgia from their childhood attached to the artwork. A middle aged war veteran came to a recent Con and bought a few of Sean Murphy's comic art pages. The war vet was injured last year and while he was laid up, he was given some of Sean's recent comic work and he was instantly hooked on the work featured in the books. He was at the show just to buy a few pages and get a chance to meet the artist who helped him get through a rough time. Now will this gentleman branch out into other comics and collect from them as well? Will this just be a one time transaction and this example is an anomaly and not the norm? Who's to say, but it's really encouraging to see where these people come from and how they got into collecting art as well.

 

Now those examples will not help keep the wheels turning on the collecting of the artwork tied to nostalgia. So I think there can be some concern with how high things are climbing and still climbing and how much longer can this sustain it's momentum before it falls away. I struggle with this sometimes, since I would love a cover of a particular comic, but an interior will have to do for now. I would love to be able to put a book together, but the comics I most desire would be half the cost of a house, so that has to go away as well. I've had to compromise with what I can get and how much I can get and to be honest, it doesn't really bother me that much. If I can only get that one page from the comic that meant a lot to me as a child then I'm happy that I was able to get the one still. I'm still in the game, but just not as much as my wallet will allow me.

 

 

 

[Eric Seffinga]

At the risk of overdoing it, a few more musings from me.

 

I think you guys both make solid points Felix & Gene. I can see where both are coming from completely. To tie this back into what I was trying to get across in my verbosity is that what the OA market looks like to Gene is not necessarily the same OA market that I see, or that Felix sees, etc. Not just our current experiences, but our outlooks and interactions with the BSDs or fresh blood to the field.

 

Gene's more than likely correct as far as the trend of the current and existing marketplace, especially regarding the lifeblood of superhero fare, and that is the majority view of veteran collectors in the hobby. It's where the most money has always been in regards to comics, and it's reflected in the sales totals of books, what has been deemed classic over the years, and so on.

 

But it's not so much a part of the art pool that I follow quite so much, and to me the prospect of a long underwear art crash isn't so bad. No doubt because I don't have a ton in that largest of comic OA niches, and in part because I never felt like I overspent for what I was buying or how I intended to hold that work.

 

What I see is that a lot of interest has been growing over the years for artier books. Quirkier titles. Vertigo books (in the 90s) and Image titles (now) may never sell heyday Spiderman volumes. But I look at some of this as a potential sea change of sorts. To liken it to the music industry, the internet hurts. It hurt album sales. It's hurt nwspapers. Books. And of course comic sales. Why buy issues off the rack when you can steal (torrent) for "free"?

 

And as such, interest and the comics pie has been subdivided. Not unlike the music industry. The pie slices aren't the same size as they used to be. You don't get your Zepplins, your Michael Jacksons or your Madonnas quite so much. Within the mainstream music system (and comic system) some names still pop out and make waves, but never as big as when the music industry controlled and focused the airwaves. Or MTV (Wizard/Diamond) dominated the industry.

 

I see the slices are smaller. Maybe fewer gigantic price tag sales as older work deflates, people retire and boomers are more and more divesting. But how much of a rise/fall will there be in the market, vs how many more new but slimmer slices are there going around? Dunno.

 

I know some feel like the comic industry is shrinking for lack of readers, but I see so much tied to reading in the various comic conventions. Sure they are half spectacle, with TV and move stars, video games and card games in on the action. But for an industry supposedly suffering shrinkage, there sure seem to be more than ever right now. But that could be because of how many industry people I know, so to my social media observations, it seems pretty thriving to me.

 

Sometimes I think about another interest of mine. Vintage guitars. Often some fun parallels and echos of similar arguments over the last 2 decades in internet forums about the same. The vintage market definitely saw a correction after the last economic downturn, but the cream still sells for record prices, People have warned ever since I can remember, that at some point the boomers will divest their collections, and the younger kids have less interest in guitar as an instrument in the same way (turntables, digital, modeling), and that there would be less nostalgic drive for the guitars that were the icons of a time period. The analogies are not perfect, but I've seen so many arguments that I could have cut and pasted from one board to another, and with a few edits, they'd apply. I do think eventually some (much) of the hero market and gold/silver/bronze material will fade. It may not crash, but it'll drop, just as interest in a lot of older work has faded for previous generations. Most comic collectors of my generation don't know who the illustrator Franklin Booth is, but they can pick a Wrightson out of a lineup.

 

I guess I see the possibility that things will not go so good for folks heavily financially invested in certain works if they look at those works as investments. I look at mine as investments of joy, rather than ones of finance. So I've very few regrets.

[delekkerste]

Yes. Gene has one view of collecting OA. But that's not the only view.

 

Never said it was the only view! But, empirically, nostalgia drives or has driven most people into the hobby (or deeper into the hobby), even those who have moved away to focus more on specific genres or artists or what have you. Maybe new comics and new comic art will be the gateway going forward, but, as we both agree, that may leave a ton of collectors and vintage OA stranded at some point.

 

And, incidentally, just because one started collecting OA at 15 doesn't mean that someone is not collecting out of nostalgia - there are plenty of people here who started reading/collecting comics at an early age and are still collecting 30 or 40 or 50 years later. Does that mean that there isn't a huge nostalgia component there? And, again, collecting out of nostalgia doesn't necessarily mean that you like the same stuff at age 45 as age 15, and it's not an all-or-nothing proposition. Almost everyone in the hobby is driven by nostalgia to some degree, whether it's 25% or 95%.

 

 

I think we may be talking in circles, or past each other, so again...younger collectors may not collect the SAME original art you collect, but they ARE collecting original art. So no, these younger collectors aren't likely going to keep the vintage art market afloat (or even save it at all). But they will keep OA going as a hobby. I'm becoming more optimistic that so long as comics are relevant, and so long as there are new readers, there will be a subset of those readers who will become interested in OA. And that won't be dependent on childhood nostalgia.

 

Sure, but let me put it to you this way. If there are young collectors coming into the hobby for different reasons than in the past, and their interests and motivations are very, very different from most established collectors, are we even talking about the same market and same hobby? I would argue that the answer is no, much as there is a very stark contrast between vintage and Modern watch collectors that I've personally witnessed. I feel like we agree on what's happening, but, as you're very involved with and satisfied with what's happening in this Modern segment of the market, you may be overlooking the anxieties the rest of us over here in Vintage Land are having!

 

Maybe you're onto something though - seems like there's a lot less stress over in Modern Land, maybe that's the place to be right now.

[staffman]

Very well said!

[Bronty]

you may be overlooking the anxieties the rest of us over here in Vintage Land are having!

 

 

What's the source of your anxiety Gene?

 

Do rising prices make you feel like you can't always afford to snap up the same quality you are used to? Or do you feel like you now have enough money invested that you're a little concerned that a good chunk of the value could vaporize if they aren't newer collectors over the longer term?

 

There does seem to be some sort of small strain of... price angst... in your posts on the topic. Given that you seem to have one of the bigger if not the biggest budget on the boards, it seems hard to reconcile from the outside looking in.

 

I think most of the rest of us kibitzing with you here don't seem to quite share the concern, and that seems... backwards... considering you can outbid most of us with a hand behind your back

 

[delekkerste]

What's the source of your anxiety Gene?

 

Do rising prices make you feel like you can't always afford to snap up the same quality you are used to? Or do you feel like you now have enough money invested that you're a little concerned that a good chunk of the value could vaporize if they aren't newer collectors over the longer term?

 

There does seem to be some sort of small strain of... price angst... in your posts on the topic. Given that you seem to have one of the bigger if not the biggest budget on the boards, it seems hard to reconcile from the outside looking in.

 

I think most of the rest of us kibitzing with you here don't seem to quite share the concern, and that seems... backwards... considering you can outbid most of us with a hand behind your back

 

First, when I refer to "anxieties", that's reflecting a broad cross-section of feedback I get from fellow collectors; not all such views may directly apply to me. Second, there are all kinds of anxieties on the vintage end - concerns about affordability (of course, anyone without an unlimited budget has at least some price anxiety these days), about values sustaining (this doesn't worry me personally at all - people know all about how I book a large loss reserve with every purchase and assume that I will eventually lose money on everything I buy!), concerns about the hobby not rejuvenating and sustaining itself, which is NOT purely a monetary concern. Who wants to feel like they're part of something that is here today, gone tomorrow? Who wants to feel like the art that we love will not be appreciated down the line? Everybody wants to see a healthy vintage side of the hobby in the long-term, but, even though there has still been fresh money coming into the hobby, I'm sure that prices have dissuaded many others from entering. Still others have switched over from slabs only to give up quickly after finding that their money doesn't go very far in mainstream vintage art.

 

Anyway, my previous post obviously had some tongue-in-cheek elements; just referencing that there's not a lot of anxiety in Modern land where $650 pieces are more the norm than $65K!

[BCarter27]

Kind of makes you appreciate the stabilizing effect Overstreet had on comics for so many years. It would never make sense in OA, but that warm blanket of slow, enforced growth would be nice sometimes. Oh wait... I forgot we can shill!

[Nexus]

And, incidentally, just because one started collecting OA at 15 doesn't mean that someone is not collecting out of nostalgia -

 

I think Benno's point was that nostalgia isn't what got him into the hobby. He wasn't motivated by nostalgia. And yes, we can expand "nostalgia" to include anything for which we feel an emotional connection. But in terms of our hobby, when we talk about "nostalgia", we're talking about childhood nostalgia.

 

Sure, but let me put it to you this way. If there are young collectors coming into the hobby for different reasons than in the past, and their interests and motivations are very, very different from most established collectors, are we even talking about the same market and same hobby? I would argue that the answer is no, much as there is a very stark contrast between vintage and Modern watch collectors that I've personally witnessed. I feel like we agree on what's happening, but, as you're very involved with and satisfied with what's happening in this Modern segment of the market, you may be overlooking the anxieties the rest of us over here in Vintage Land are having!

 

No, I get the anxiety. I've felt it. I have my fair share sunk into vintage art, too. I've just made peace with it, years ago. Whatever happens is going to happen. I just want to enjoy my collection.

 

Question: If the vintage market crashes, but there are still people buying and enjoying new art, would you still consider the OA hobby to be over? Similar to if the slab market crashes, but people still buy new books...would this mean that comics are dead?

 

Maybe you're onto something though - seems like there's a lot less stress over in Modern Land, maybe that's the place to be right now.

 

Largely why I'm enjoying new art! As Andy said in the last podcast, you can like a single panel on a page in new art, and that will be enough justification to buy it...because it's (relatively) cheap! It depends on your budget, but for most collectors, that's harder to do with vintage art, especially high-end vintage art.

[Nexus]

I guess I see the possibility that things will not go so good for folks heavily financially invested in certain works if they look at those works as investments. I look at mine as investments of joy, rather than ones of finance. So I've very few regrets.

 

That's pretty much it.

[Ironmandrd]

I'm nearing my 5 year anniversary (from when I decided to collect seriously), and I hear those myriad concerns expressed by others and share some of those concerns myself, both monetary and non-monetary ("anxiety" I think is probably too strong a word for it).

 

And Gene can speak for himself better than I can of course but I don't see the inherent reconciliation difficulty in what he is saying (on behalf of himself and/or other collectors he's talked to) -- one can have short term and long term concerns about the market place (or segment(s) of the market one is in) and still continue to collect pieces (most likely either because they are lower end pieces that won't have a material impact if they were to decline substantially or better/best pieces that in their view will be less likely to lose substantial value should those concerns eventually materialize). Having concerns doesn't mean stopping cold turkey or having the big sell-off, but they may lead to some changing of collecting habits.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

As with everything, that which is the rarest and of the highest quality always suffers the least in a downturn.

 

Now what "the least" is, is relative, but it won't be as bad as the worst.

 

In other words, Kirby pages may collapse, but they won't be kindling like Liefeld pages. Especially Youngblood pages.

 

[Bronty]

Kind of makes you appreciate the stabilizing effect Overstreet had on comics for so many years. It would never make sense in OA, but that warm blanket of slow, enforced growth would be nice sometimes. Oh wait... I forgot we can shill!

 

 

I didn't. I caught some shilling by a boardie just this week