Heritage February

[tth2]

Anyone else floored with this bidding with almost three weeks left?

 

http://comics.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=7087&lotNo=92044

 

Impressive.

Why do OA bidders bid so high so early? Do they enjoy getting their bids run up?

[batman_fan]

Anyone else floored with this bidding with almost three weeks left?

 

http://comics.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=7087&lotNo=92044

 

Impressive.

Why do OA bidders bid so high so early? Do they enjoy getting their bids run up?

 

It is very similar to dogs marking their territory (thumbs u

 

One dog does it then the next dog comes along and remarks it, then ...

[Doc Joe]

 

getting DESTROYED on everything

 

Ridiculous.

 

I see the Donnelley's saying...I told you so

 

Lucky if I walk away with one piece.

[Bronty]

Anyone else floored with this bidding with almost three weeks left?

 

http://comics.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=7087&lotNo=92044

 

Impressive.

 

Funny, just as you posted this I was looking at this auction. Pretty crazy early bidding for sure.

 

The market for prime-era Byrne FF covers is not really established at least in terms of public sales so this one will be interesting to watch.

 

I believe the FF Annual cover featuring a nice shot of the whole team went for what now seems like a bargain in a recent Heritage auction compared to what it is looking like this one will go for.

 

whoah, healthy bid for this far out from the auction date. Sweet cover though.

 

Well, I love byrne FF and while I wouldn't pay for one of these, I'd be happy just as an observer to see a cover from that run have its turn for a monster number.

[comix4fun]

Anyone else floored with this bidding with almost three weeks left?

 

http://comics.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=7087&lotNo=92044

 

Impressive.

 

Funny, just as you posted this I was looking at this auction. Pretty crazy early bidding for sure.

 

The market for prime-era Byrne FF covers is not really established at least in terms of public sales so this one will be interesting to watch.

 

I believe the FF Annual cover featuring a nice shot of the whole team went for what now seems like a bargain in a recent Heritage auction compared to what it is looking like this one will go for.

 

whoah, healthy bid for this far out from the auction date. Sweet cover though.

 

 

Someone's marking their territory....HARD!!

 

[Bronty]

 

 

that, my friend, goes straight to the gremlin hall of fame.

[comix4fun]

 

 

that, my friend, goes straight to the gremlin hall of fame.

 

 

I have its twin for the really serious marking....

 

 

[Buzzetta]

Anyone else floored with this bidding with almost three weeks left?

 

http://comics.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=7087&lotNo=92044

 

Impressive.

Why do OA bidders bid so high so early? Do they enjoy getting their bids run up?

 

This is how it was explained to me when I asked this question once:

 

It is done for the sole reason of tying up or cornering other people's funds into certain listings. By bidding early it kicks a couple of people out of the running. For those that run up the bidding they are playing a game by trying to be an underbidder by the maximum and at the same time tying up the competition's funds into that particular piece leaving other similar listings free for the underbidder.

[tth2]

Anyone else floored with this bidding with almost three weeks left?

 

http://comics.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=7087&lotNo=92044

 

Impressive.

Why do OA bidders bid so high so early? Do they enjoy getting their bids run up?

 

This is how it was explained to me when I asked this question once:

 

It is done for the sole reason of tying up or cornering other people's funds into certain listings. By bidding early it kicks a couple of people out of the running. For those that run up the bidding they are playing a game by trying to be an underbidder by the maximum and at the same time tying up the competition's funds into that particular piece leaving other similar listings free for the underbidder.

That kind of makes sense on paper, but as far as I can tell it makes no difference in actual practice. I`ve never seen one trophy piece on Heritage go for way under its estimated value just because some other trophy pieces of a similar genre in the same auction went for big bucks.

 

I think the big spenders know pretty much what they`re willing to spend on a piece and bid that amount, regardless of what the bidding has been leading up to the floor auction. They might bid even higher than they expected if they run into unexpected competition, but that just reinforces that the so-called "marking the territory" didn`t affect the final bidding at all.

[delekkerste]

I have been known, on occasion, to ramp up the bidding early to accelerate price discovery. Let's say I am interested in both the John Byrne FF #256 cover and the John Buscema Avengers #42 cover and I have a total budget of $75K (for the record, I am not interested in either, this is purely for illustrative purposes). I might want to bid up the FF cover repeatedly to get some momentum/counter-bidding activity going. And, by doing so, with two weeks to go before the auction, I have gained some very valuable information - the FF cover is going to go for a minimum of $38.8K (where it is now), so that tells me I can scratch it off my list and focus all my budget and attention on the Buscema cover instead. Had I not kept bidding it up (again, purely for illustrative purposes - I didn't even put in a tracking bid on this one), maybe the cover is only at $15K before the auction and I have no idea how much i can spend on the Buscema (which will sell before the Byrne). And, as a result, maybe I end up with neither.

 

For most pieces, they are going to sell where they're going to sell, regardless of when the bidding takes place, so, usually the benefits of accelerating price discovery outweighs any potential downside IMO.

[Lago32]

I have been known, on occasion, to ramp up the bidding early to accelerate price discovery. Let's say I am interested in both the John Byrne FF #256 cover and the John Buscema Avengers #42 cover and I have a total budget of $75K (for the record, I am not interested in either, this is purely for illustrative purposes). I might want to bid up the FF cover repeatedly to get some momentum/counter-bidding activity going. And, by doing so, with two weeks to go before the auction, I have gained some very valuable information - the FF cover is going to go for a minimum of $38.8K (where it is now), so that tells me I can scratch it off my list and focus all my budget and attention on the Buscema cover instead. Had I not kept bidding it up (again, purely for illustrative purposes - I didn't even put in a tracking bid on this one), maybe the cover is only at $15K before the auction and I have no idea how much i can spend on the Buscema (which will sell before the Byrne). And, as a result, maybe I end up with neither.

 

For most pieces, they are going to sell where they're going to sell, regardless of when the bidding takes place, so it's usually not a handicap to accelerate price discovery IMO.

 

I agree Gene but have always wondered if that kind of price discovery is worth giving your competing bidders time to raise cash and/or re-think/raise their high-end threshold on a piece. The popular thinking of course is to wait until the end and launch a surprise attack that will hypothetically not allow your competing bidders time to do either. That being said, one could argue that by raising prices early, more level-heads prevail and can therefore be cooled versus the erratic/unpredictable/emotion-filled behavior that can be conversely created with the surprise attack.

[delekkerste]

I agree Gene but have always wondered if that kind of price discovery is worth giving your competing bidders time to raise cash and/or re-think/raise their high-end threshold on a piece. The popular thinking of course is to wait until the end and launch a surprise attack that will hypothetically not allow your competing bidders time to do either. That being said, one could argue that by raising prices early, more level-heads prevail and can therefore be cooled versus the erratic/unpredictable/emotion-filled behavior that can be conversely created with the surprise attack.

 

I think if you know you are going to go to the mat for a piece no matter what, it makes sense not to tip your hand. But, if you have a defined budget and are looking at potentially multiple targets, the benefits of accelerating price discovery outweigh any negatives.

 

Also, while a surprise attack can catch the competition off-guard, it can also incite irrational auction fever as well. Plus, many times you can scare off the competition with early bidding (probably a lot of people have crossed that Byrne FF cover off their list at this point) - I've won a number of lots by jacking up the early bidding and then the piece receives no further bidding in the live session. Which just further proves what many believe - that the price is going to be what the price is going to be, regardless of when bids are placed. And, if that's the case, you might as well get information sooner rather than later so you can use it to your advantage.

[Ironmandrd]

The theory of "bidding early" -- an interesting and multi-faceted topic. Is there a separate thread for it or should there be one?

 

While I understand that under certain scenarios it may or does have advantages, I feel like it's being overused at times and other times used indiscriminately. Personally I am not a huge fan of the practice (looking at it from the other side --ie, I'm potentially interested in a piece that gets bid up early). Perhaps I'm less analytical about my bidding than others.

[Bronty]

Its an interesting topic and gene makes some good points. That being said I'm not sure that no further bids after vigorous early bidding proves anything with respect to the fact that 'every piece sells for what it should sell for.' Its not a causal relationship and it could just as easily be evidence of the fact that the piece was already overpriced after the early bidding.

[delekkerste]

Its not a causal relationship and it could just as easily be evidence of the fact that the piece was already overpriced after the early bidding.

 

I don't think pieces which see early active bidding get more overpriced than they otherwise would have been. I think it's more that people see the early active bidding and extrapolate even bigger gains in the live session when, in fact, the early bidding often brings the price at/near where it would have ended anyway. Regardless of when the bids are placed, in most cases, the price is going to end up pretty much at the same destination. If you're going to bid $15K on a piece at auction, I really don't think it makes much of a difference when you place that bid - either there is someone who's willing to pay more than that amount or there isn't.

 

I think the "element of surprise" is hugely overrated - the vast majority of the time it just results in people saying "I thought I had a chance to get that piece but I got blown away in the live session". Better to have found that out earlier so one can focus their attention on more attainable targets.

[Bronty]

yeah. I get your points. But its all conjecture both pro and con, any way you slice it

 

Interesting conjecture, but not "proof" of anything at least IMHO

[tth2]

I have been known, on occasion, to ramp up the bidding early to accelerate price discovery. Let's say I am interested in both the John Byrne FF #256 cover and the John Buscema Avengers #42 cover and I have a total budget of $75K (for the record, I am not interested in either, this is purely for illustrative purposes). I might want to bid up the FF cover repeatedly to get some momentum/counter-bidding activity going. And, by doing so, with two weeks to go before the auction, I have gained some very valuable information - the FF cover is going to go for a minimum of $38.8K (where it is now), so that tells me I can scratch it off my list and focus all my budget and attention on the Buscema cover instead. Had I not kept bidding it up (again, purely for illustrative purposes - I didn't even put in a tracking bid on this one), maybe the cover is only at $15K before the auction and I have no idea how much i can spend on the Buscema (which will sell before the Byrne). And, as a result, maybe I end up with neither.

 

For most pieces, they are going to sell where they're going to sell, regardless of when the bidding takes place, so, usually the benefits of accelerating price discovery outweighs any potential downside IMO.

What`s interesting to me is that this generally doesn`t happen in comic auctions. Comic bidders seem to go out of their way to suppress bidding early on, and I see very little of this kind of price discovery, even though all the same principles and dynamics should be at play.

 

[DocR]

I put some much stronger early bids in this auction than i usually do for exactly what Gene states. I'm sick of seeing a piece go into the live auction at 2k and end at 20k. Inevitably there will be some other piece that goes in at 2k and ends at 2.5k. Better off to know ahead of time, so I can focus and it makes my day during the live auction that much easier.

[jjonahjameson1]

yeah. I get your points. But its all conjecture both pro and con, any way you slice it

 

Interesting conjecture, but not "proof" of anything at least IMHO

 

Oh, I think your opinion is worth more than 2 cents. Ever since Canada got rid of the penny, we've been rounding up so your opinion is now worth a nickel

[suspense39]

I have been known, on occasion, to ramp up the bidding early to accelerate price discovery. Let's say I am interested in both the John Byrne FF #256 cover and the John Buscema Avengers #42 cover and I have a total budget of $75K (for the record, I am not interested in either, this is purely for illustrative purposes). I might want to bid up the FF cover repeatedly to get some momentum/counter-bidding activity going. And, by doing so, with two weeks to go before the auction, I have gained some very valuable information - the FF cover is going to go for a minimum of $38.8K (where it is now), so that tells me I can scratch it off my list and focus all my budget and attention on the Buscema cover instead. Had I not kept bidding it up (again, purely for illustrative purposes - I didn't even put in a tracking bid on this one), maybe the cover is only at $15K before the auction and I have no idea how much i can spend on the Buscema (which will sell before the Byrne). And, as a result, maybe I end up with neither.

 

For most pieces, they are going to sell where they're going to sell, regardless of when the bidding takes place, so, usually the benefits of accelerating price discovery outweighs any potential downside IMO.

What`s interesting to me is that this generally doesn`t happen in comic auctions. Comic bidders seem to go out of their way to suppress bidding early on, and I see very little of this kind of price discovery, even though all the same principles and dynamics should be at play.

 

Maybe because comic prices are more set....less surprises as to what they will end up selling for.