THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Cushing Fan]

On 1/25/2023 at 9:52 AM, WNY said:

So. Many. Red. Flags. 

It is odd that the seller's other listed items are car parts. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/25/2023 at 9:52 AM, WNY said:

So. Many. Red. Flags. 

Here's what the seller says in the listing:

WE HAVE AVAILABLE  TO YOU THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CGC OFF WHITE 9.4 , 1st SPIDER-MAN APPEARANCED COMIC 1962 N/M CONDITION. OPEN TO REASONABLE OFFERS. THIS IS A UNIQUE AND RARE COMIC IN THIS CONDITION. PLEASE FILL FREE TO MESSAGE WITH ANY QUESTIONS OR OFFERS. THANK YOU FOR LOOKING AND DONT MISS OUT ON OWNING A PIECE OF GREAT COMIC BOOK HISTORY. NOTE* THERE IS NO RESERVE BUT I RESERVE THE RIGHT TO END THIS AUCTION IF THE AMOUNT DOES NOT REACH WERE IT NEEDS TO BE REALITY. IF YOU ARE BIDDING YOU UNDERSTAND THE SIGNIFICANCE OF HOW MUCH THIS IS WORTH.

[frozentundraguy]

The seller also has recorded a mind numbing 25 sales, and an exceptional feedback score of just over 90%. 

[silverseeker]

My Spidey-Sense is telling me that auction is not going to end well for the buyer...

[Dark Knight]

Seems legit to me based on how the seller wrote his descrtiption

[WNY]

On 1/25/2023 at 9:52 AM, WNY said:

So. Many. Red. Flags. 

Ok. I’m gonna be laying out some detective work… this is definitely a scam. So this same book last traded at Heritage in 2016. See link: 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/amazing-fantasy-15-marvel-1962-cgc-nm-94-off-white-pages/a/7124-91113.s?gck=1efb56b5-27c9-4eb8-9435-c94c59cfe789&utm_source=GoCollect&utm_medium=Growth_Partner&utm_campaign=Sponsored_Listing&utm_term=Amazing+Fantasy+%2315&utm_content=7124-91113

in that HA listing you will see the back cover has writing in the bottom that is “461”. Pic here:

 

This eBay listing just pulled a different picture of a back cover with the same old label as it is clearly a different book because it does not have that “461”. 
 

 

As I said, already a lot of red flags but I think we can safely conclude this is not a legit listing. 

The scammer aimed really high with that 9.4 as it was so easy to identify the book given how few copies there are… that’s all folks. 

[DT0428]

On 1/25/2023 at 2:43 PM, WNY said:

Ok. I’m gonna be laying out some detective work… this is definitely a scam. So this same book last traded at Heritage in 2016. See link: 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/silver-age-1956-1969-/amazing-fantasy-15-marvel-1962-cgc-nm-94-off-white-pages/a/7124-91113.s?gck=1efb56b5-27c9-4eb8-9435-c94c59cfe789&utm_source=GoCollect&utm_medium=Growth_Partner&utm_campaign=Sponsored_Listing&utm_term=Amazing+Fantasy+%2315&utm_content=7124-91113

in that HA listing you will see the back cover has writing in the bottom that is “461”. Pic here:

 

This eBay listing just pulled a different picture of a back cover with the same old label as it is clearly a different book because it does not have that “461”. 
 

 

As I said, already a lot of red flags but I think we can safely conclude this is not a legit listing. 

The scammer aimed really high with that 9.4 as it was so easy to identify the book given how few copies there are… that’s all folks. 

Good detective work.  I threw a bid earlier and seller reached out to me willing to sell outside Ebay for 50k lmao

Edited January 25, 2023 by DT0428

[Cushing Fan]

The listing was just pulled.

[DT0428]

On 1/25/2023 at 4:22 PM, Cushing Fan said:

The listing was just pulled.

I reported after he tried to sell to me for 50k off Ebay

[Dark Knight]

On 1/25/2023 at 1:22 PM, Cushing Fan said:

The listing was just pulled.

Dammit!  Looks like someone beat me for a private deal outside of Ebay . I was going to see if he would take $49,999.99 instead of the $50k

[peewee22]

Confucius says stay away from that s**t.

 

[DC#]

On 4/15/2017 at 4:54 PM, Spider-Variant said:

I haven't posted much lately in this thread.  Nice to see it is still going strong.  

Had a few moments and thought I would plot out the graded AF#15 distribution.  

Well, I guess I just plotted universal copies.

 

 

 

 

 

I was really bored recently and decided to go way, way back in this thread - all the way back to 2015 or so - just to see what conversations have been like over the past decade.    Funny how the conversations have not really changed that much - where prices are, speculation, predictions, impact of marvel chipping, validity of various auction houses, etc etc etc.    

One thing that caught my eye was a chart from April 2017 that broke down how many Universal graded copies were in the census.    In April 2017 it stood at 1,653 copies - in January 2023 we are at 2,403 - a 45% increase.    So in the first 17 years of the census they graded 1,653 and have done 750 in the past six years.   That is an average of just under 100/year in the first 17 years to around 125/year these past six.

The 2017 chart doesn't have actual numbers by grade but I eyeballed them to create a comparison by grade.    The most growth was in grades 2.5 and under (50-70% increases) but all grades under 6.0 grew by over 30%.   Even 8 and 8.5 grew around 30%.   

Again - I had to guess the 2017 numbers but this gives a directional sense of how many books have been added by grade.

 

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by DC#

[Spider-Variant]

On 1/25/2023 at 11:44 PM, DC# said:

 

I was really bored recently and decided to go way, way back in this thread - all the way back to 2015 or so - just to see what conversations have been like over the past decade.    Funny how the conversations have not really changed that much - where prices are, speculation, predictions, impact of marvel chipping, validity of various auction houses, etc etc etc.    

One thing that caught my eye was a chart from April 2017 that broke down how many Universal graded copies were in the census.    In April 2017 it stood at 1,653 copies - in January 2023 we are at 2,403 - a 45% increase.    So in the first 17 years of the census they graded 1,653 and have done 750 in the past six years.   That is an average of just under 100/year in the first 17 years to around 125/year these past six.

The 2017 chart doesn't have actual numbers by grade but I eyeballed them to create a comparison by grade.    The most growth was in grades 2.5 and under (50-70% increases) but all grades under 6.0 grew by over 30%.   Even 8 and 8.5 grew around 30%.   

Again - I had to guess the 2017 numbers but this gives a directional sense of how many books have been added by grade.

 

 

Great stuff.  I'll give this a proper read when I get the chance.  

[Iceman399]

On 1/25/2023 at 11:44 PM, DC# said:

 

I was really bored recently and decided to go way, way back in this thread - all the way back to 2015 or so - just to see what conversations have been like over the past decade.    Funny how the conversations have not really changed that much - where prices are, speculation, predictions, impact of marvel chipping, validity of various auction houses, etc etc etc.    

One thing that caught my eye was a chart from April 2017 that broke down how many Universal graded copies were in the census.    In April 2017 it stood at 1,653 copies - in January 2023 we are at 2,403 - a 45% increase.    So in the first 17 years of the census they graded 1,653 and have done 750 in the past six years.   That is an average of just under 100/year in the first 17 years to around 125/year these past six.

The 2017 chart doesn't have actual numbers by grade but I eyeballed them to create a comparison by grade.    The most growth was in grades 2.5 and under (50-70% increases) but all grades under 6.0 grew by over 30%.   Even 8 and 8.5 grew around 30%.   

Again - I had to guess the 2017 numbers but this gives a directional sense of how many books have been added by grade.

 

 

One thing to be cautious about this is the use of CPR which has exploded in the last few years.  Many ppl who CPR do not send in old labels (for several reasons including fear of it resulting in the same grade, laziness, didn't know they should etc).

This does paint a nice picture of average grade.

[fishbone]

On 1/25/2023 at 11:44 PM, DC# said:

 

I was really bored recently and decided to go way, way back in this thread - all the way back to 2015 or so - just to see what conversations have been like over the past decade.    Funny how the conversations have not really changed that much - where prices are, speculation, predictions, impact of marvel chipping, validity of various auction houses, etc etc etc.    

One thing that caught my eye was a chart from April 2017 that broke down how many Universal graded copies were in the census.    In April 2017 it stood at 1,653 copies - in January 2023 we are at 2,403 - a 45% increase.    So in the first 17 years of the census they graded 1,653 and have done 750 in the past six years.   That is an average of just under 100/year in the first 17 years to around 125/year these past six.

The 2017 chart doesn't have actual numbers by grade but I eyeballed them to create a comparison by grade.    The most growth was in grades 2.5 and under (50-70% increases) but all grades under 6.0 grew by over 30%.   Even 8 and 8.5 grew around 30%.   

Again - I had to guess the 2017 numbers but this gives a directional sense of how many books have been added by grade.

 

 

very interesting graph - thanks for the work you put in

[The Man Without Beer]

Not in hand yet but will be in a few weeks. My early submission entry to the AF15 club.

[byosti]

On 1/25/2023 at 11:44 PM, DC# said:

 

I was really bored recently and decided to go way, way back in this thread - all the way back to 2015 or so - just to see what conversations have been like over the past decade.    Funny how the conversations have not really changed that much - where prices are, speculation, predictions, impact of marvel chipping, validity of various auction houses, etc etc etc.    

One thing that caught my eye was a chart from April 2017 that broke down how many Universal graded copies were in the census.    In April 2017 it stood at 1,653 copies - in January 2023 we are at 2,403 - a 45% increase.    So in the first 17 years of the census they graded 1,653 and have done 750 in the past six years.   That is an average of just under 100/year in the first 17 years to around 125/year these past six.

The 2017 chart doesn't have actual numbers by grade but I eyeballed them to create a comparison by grade.    The most growth was in grades 2.5 and under (50-70% increases) but all grades under 6.0 grew by over 30%.   Even 8 and 8.5 grew around 30%.   

Again - I had to guess the 2017 numbers but this gives a directional sense of how many books have been added by grade.

 

 

when studying census numbers like this, how many or what % do you think is resubs/presses/resto removal etc that do not include original label and then would be doubly counted? same with cgc to cbcs or cbcs to cgc skewing 

[KCOComics]

On 1/30/2023 at 9:10 AM, The Man Without Beer said:

Not in hand yet but will be in a few weeks. My early submission entry to the AF15 club.

That's a beautiful 2.0. 

Congrats!!  

[The Man Without Beer]

On 1/30/2023 at 7:47 PM, KCOComics said:

That's a beautiful 2.0. 

Congrats!!  

Thank you!!

[Phill the Governor]

On 1/30/2023 at 3:56 PM, byosti said:

when studying census numbers like this, how many or what % do you think is resubs/presses/resto removal etc that do not include original label and then would be doubly counted? same with cgc to cbcs or cbcs to cgc skewing 

On 2/13/2023 at 3:57 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Most likely a lot of them.

I find this unlikely. As long as the label is eventually sent back, its removed from the census. The people that are mostly cracking out books take the measures to send in groups of labels to do their part in keeping the census as accurate as possible. I'd argue those that don't are outliers.