THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Dark Knight]

Strong sale!  I believe the last 7.5 sold for $300k recently too

[Math Teacher]

On 4/14/2022 at 8:19 PM, Iceman399 said:

Wow not sure if this sale goes through or not but wow. 

Not to bring up sales but wow very strong price. 

My question is, "Why did this person sell this on Ebay?" Other auction houses charge less commission.

[EastEnd1]

On 4/15/2022 at 7:13 AM, Math Teacher said:

My question is, "Why did this person sell this on Ebay?" Other auction houses charge less commission.

Not saying eBay's the right venue for this book for a host of reasons, but don't think that's true... eBay final value fees are substantially less than the 10% typically charged by Clink and ConnectConnect (we won't even talk about Heritage) when the sales price exceeds $7500.  Might be as little as 2.35%?  

[bronze johnny]

On 4/15/2022 at 7:13 AM, Math Teacher said:

My question is, "Why did this person sell this on Ebay?" Other auction houses charge less commission.

Your question is an excellent one. I wouldn’t take eBay auctions at face value for books like this. Too many shenanigans going on. We aren’t going to get closer to the truth about values for these books without greater transparency in auctions. 

[Kevin76]

On 4/15/2022 at 1:41 PM, bronze johnny said:

Your question is an excellent one. I wouldn’t take eBay auctions at face value for books like this. Too many shenanigans going on. We aren’t going to get closer to the truth about values for these books without greater transparency in auctions. 

It's all a conspiracy 

[Kevin76]

On 4/15/2022 at 7:13 AM, Math Teacher said:

My question is, "Why did this person sell this on Ebay?" Other auction houses charge less commission.

Go ask Neko,  He's on the boards  

[bronze johnny]

On 4/15/2022 at 2:47 PM, Kevin76 said:

It's all a conspiracy 

Not into conspiracies. Just more transparency.

[Kevin76]

On 4/15/2022 at 3:38 PM, bronze johnny said:

Not into conspiracies. Just more transparency.

They aren't going to publicly show the sales receipt of payment received if that's what you want.  

[bronze johnny]

On 4/15/2022 at 7:01 PM, Kevin76 said:

They aren't going to publicly show the sales receipt of payment received if that's what you want.  

I get the impression it’s not a problem for you given your “conspiracy” quip. There’s plenty auction houses can show: how about starting with which books did an auction house bid on and how much? What about books where the seller won their own auction and just paid the auction house fee?There’s plenty more and this helped open the door:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-17/auction-houses-told-to-improve-transparency-in-reporting-prices

Still, more is needed so everyone in the hobby benefits.

Edited April 16, 2022 by bronze johnny

[alexgross.com]

On 4/15/2022 at 5:19 PM, bronze johnny said:

I get the impression it’s not a problem for you given your “conspiracy” quip. There’s plenty auction houses can show: how about starting with which books did an auction house bid on and how much? What about books where the seller won their own auction and just paid the auction house fee?There’s plenty more and this helped open the door:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-17/auction-houses-told-to-improve-transparency-in-reporting-prices

Still, more is needed so everyone in the hobby benefits.

+1 on all this. the fact that, at heritage, sellers can win their own book back at auction as long as they pay the fees is not widely known. but most seem to know that shilling takes place endlessly at feebay with virtually no one there policing it. 

at the end of the day, it's probably smart not to put too much faith into one auction result either at feebay or at heritage. it's the overall picture. 

just to bring it back to the books themselves, here's my copy a year and a half ago, held by my son, who is now much bigger. 

[WNY]

Following @alexgross.com’s lead… Here’s my entry to the club. Picked it up about 6 months ago so probably hit the peak of the market but still really happy to have it! 

[Kevin76]

On 4/15/2022 at 8:19 PM, bronze johnny said:

I get the impression it’s not a problem for you given your “conspiracy” quip. There’s plenty auction houses can show: how about starting with which books did an auction house bid on and how much? What about books where the seller won their own auction and just paid the auction house fee?There’s plenty more and this helped open the door:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-17/auction-houses-told-to-improve-transparency-in-reporting-prices

Still, more is needed so everyone in the hobby benefits.

I can't read the article since I'm not subscribed nor to I plan to but I don't buy million dollar comics, do you?  I'm not worried about it.  I'll let the angry mob worry about AH pricing of books they can't afford 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Kevin76

[bronze johnny]

On 4/16/2022 at 11:10 AM, Kevin76 said:

I can't read the article since I'm not subscribed nor to I plan to but I don't buy million dollar comics, do you?  I'm not worried about it.  I'll let the angry mob worry about AH pricing of books they can't afford 

This isn’t just about million dollar comic books. There are people who buy 4, 5, and 6 figure books too. This also isn’t just about what’s exclusively good for me even though you’re only concerned about what’s best for you. I am concerned about people getting played. There are good people that will better be able to protect themselves from overpaying or even getting ripped off with greater knowledge of auctions. Benefits all of us, including the auction houses themselves. The shenanigans on eBay need to stop and greater transparency will help achieve this. Who are the “angry mob” you’re referring to anyway? Anyone with a concern? There are plenty of high priced books that are affordable but that doesn’t mean they are the right price to pay for. Paying fair prices are better for the hobby and the good people in it who also express concerns for their collector colleagues.

[Kevin76]

On 4/16/2022 at 11:36 AM, bronze johnny said:

This isn’t just about million dollar comic books. There are people who buy 4, 5, and 6 figure books too. This also isn’t just about what’s exclusively good for me even though you’re only concerned about what’s best for you. I am concerned about people getting played. There are good people that will better be able to protect themselves from overpaying or even getting ripped off with greater knowledge of auctions. Benefits all of us, including the auction houses themselves. The shenanigans on eBay need to stop and greater transparency will help achieve this. Who are the “angry mob” you’re referring to anyway? Anyone with a concern? There are plenty of high priced books that are affordable but that doesn’t mean they are the right price to pay for. Paying fair prices are better for the hobby and the good people in it who also express concerns for their collector colleagues.

What would you consider a "fair price" ?  Some people want the book so bad they keep throwing money at it until they "win"  People buy on emotion, that's they way it's always been, weather it's comics or buying new sneakers. I just bought a World's Finest 4.5 for $6500...Was that a "fair price?  Am I a good person who overpayed??  Are you concerned about my finances?  Do you need the website so they can email you the sales receipt for transparency?  I think Bronze Johnny only needs to worry about Bronze Johnny

[bronze johnny]

On 4/16/2022 at 1:11 PM, Kevin76 said:

What would you consider a "fair price" ?  Some people want the book so bad they keep throwing money at it until they "win"  People buy on emotion, that's they way it's always been, weather it's comics or buying new sneakers. I just bought a World's Finest 4.5 for $6500...Was that a "fair price?  Am I a good person who overpayed??  Are you concerned about my finances?  Do you need the website so they can email you the sales receipt for transparency?  I think Bronze Johnny only needs to worry about Bronze Johnny

You know what I’m saying. Don’t be obtuse. Yes, some people buy with emotions but they don’t represent everyone. There are plenty of newer collectors in this hobby that aren’t throwing money at books because of their emotions getting the best of them. You think it’s any easier for someone to win an auction when they are betting against the house? How about bidding against the owner of a book who has very little to lose by winning the auction? Does Kevin76 understand that this isn’t only about looking out for fellow collectors but also about ensuring a fairer process? Kevin76 isn’t someone who Bronze Johnny is going to take advice from especially when Kevin76 is all about Kevin76. I can get sarcastic too if you want to go down that path

[Math Teacher]

On 4/16/2022 at 12:35 PM, bronze johnny said:

You know what I’m saying. Don’t be obtuse. Yes, some people buy with emotions but they don’t represent everyone. There are plenty of newer collectors in this hobby that aren’t throwing money at books because of their emotions getting the best of them. You think it’s any easier for someone to win an auction when they are betting against the house? How about bidding against the owner of a book who has very little to lose by winning the auction? Does Kevin76 understand that this isn’t only about looking out for fellow collectors but also about ensuring a fairer process? Kevin76 isn’t someone who Bronze Johnny is going to take advice from especially when Kevin76 is all about Kevin76. I can get sarcastic too if you want to go down that path

I guess I'm not sure I'm understanding why the seller would want to buy his/her own book.

Let's say a person has a copy of X-Men #1 CGC 5.0, which, according to GPA, last sold for $23,100 on 03/19/2022. Based on what I read on Heritage auctions, the commission fee for this book would be 7%. So, unless this book sells for approximately $24,000, the seller will lose money. Also, the seller will have to pay a 20% buyer's premium, which in this case would be $4,800. So now the book has to sell the book for $28,800 to see any profit, assuming s/he was the person who purchased the book for $23,100. I know that this is highly unlikely, but there are plenty of flippers in this hobby.

It is entirely possible that the price of this book could be run due to a bidding frenzy, but it's more likely that this book would not reach the $28,800 to make a profit. The last X-Men CGC 6.0 sold on HA for $28,800.

Maybe I'm missing something, because I don't see any advantage to buying your own book. I can understand bidding on your own book with hope of increasing the next bid, but I can't see any good reason why a person would want to buy his/her book.

Clearly, I'm missing something, and I'm sure one of you fine people will be able to explain it to me.

[Aman619]

On 4/15/2022 at 8:19 PM, bronze johnny said:

I get the impression it’s not a problem for you given your “conspiracy” quip. There’s plenty auction houses can show: how about starting with which books did an auction house bid on and how much? What about books where the seller won their own auction and just paid the auction house fee?There’s plenty more and this helped open the door:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-17/auction-houses-told-to-improve-transparency-in-reporting-prices

Still, more is needed so everyone in the hobby benefits.

skimming the article I think this speaks only to whats going on in the art auctions.  Auction houses make deals with Guarantors before accepting some high priced items for auction. They guarantee a floor price, like a reserve, but the difference is the guarantor gets to buy it for that price. With a reserve it reverts back to consignor.  Seems that if the guarantee was 100M, the auction would add the commission to that and announce a sale of 120M.  But only the guaranteed amount (100M) would change hands.  So the public sale price must now be lowered to the 100M keeping the market value to just what was actually paid.  Im assuming the consignor gets less, after consignment fees are taken by the auction house.

I dont think we (yet) have this happening in comics auctions.

[Aman619]

As for consignors buying back their own books, since they'd only do it because they'd hoped for a higher sale price, and are willing to take it back for another day, they just do some calculations as to how much more $$ they want to be into a book for.

If you paid $1000 for your AF 15 20 years ago and GPA says you'll get 100K today, but the bidding is ending at 60K, (for whatever reason), would you mind paying another few 1000 to get the chance to sell it later for a higher price?  Now you're into a 100K book for 3K!  why not? 

[Math Teacher]

On 4/16/2022 at 1:06 PM, Aman619 said:

As for consignors buying back their own books, since they'd only do it because they'd hoped for a higher sale price, and are willing to take it back for another day, they just do some calculations as to how much more $$ they want to be into a book for.

If you paid $1000 for your AF 15 20 years ago and GPA says you'll get 100K today, but the bidding is ending at 60K, (for whatever reason), would you mind paying another few 1000 to get the chance to sell it later for a higher price?  Now you're into a 100K book for 3K!  why not? 

I think there is an assumption here that is not guaranteed to be true. If the bidding ended at $60K, wouldn't that become the FMV of said book? Are there any buyers that are willing to pay a 67% higher than FMV? I suppose there could be, but my guess they are few and far between.

It is sensible to believe that AF #15 will continue to increase in price as the years go by. However, that is not guaranteed. For example, on 10/31/2021, an AF #15 CGC 4.5 sold for $84,000. The most recent sale of an AF #15 CGC 5.0 was $69,000 on 01/30/2022. This is a decrease of almost 18%, which is definitely significant. Now, there could be a significant difference between these two books. One might present well with white pages and no Marvel chipping while the other has cream pages with a large amount of chipping.

Will an AF #15 CGC 4.5 sell at a price above $84,000 in the future? Of this, I have no doubt. But when that would happen cannot be predicted.

If the seller is putting this book up for sale, then I would assume that the seller either a) needs the money, b) wants to lock his/her profit, or c) needs the money to buy another book. In addition, in all likelihood, said seller would be paying 15% or higher on the proceeds of this book. And that's just federal taxes. Unless the seller lives in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming, the state government is also going to tax that profit also. So, if the seller was to sell the book, s/he would need to receive well over $100K to realize a payout near $84,000.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Math Teacher

[Aman619]

That’s all part of the math. I only meant to point out that when someone’s cost basis is very low, you can pay “insurance” and get a do over. Insurance being how ever much it costs in fees.  
 

as for my specific example, market value is not literally “the last price paid for anything” except on Wall Street where there are 1000s of shares trading hands constantly.  One low final bid at a comics auction relies on dozens or scores of people tuned in at that moment many of whom aren’t bidding on it.  Next week same book could be higher or lower.