Cerebus 1 a more valuable key than Hulk 181? Really Overstreet? Poll on Page 87 3 3

[AlexanderM]

Yep. It can't be disputed. It's real world application of economics.

 

No matter what jaydog or anyone thinks, (Any national dealer on this board, if given a chance, would buy a Cerebus #1 CGC 9.4 over a Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 - if offered either one or the other - for $500.) is FACT.

 

Because it's a more valuable book.

 

You have said that 3 times now.

 

I'm not sure it can be disputed nor needs to be disputed.

 

What I do know is that H181 is a vastly more important book (everyone seems to agree on this now), and that Jay has argued in the most logical manner of the two sides so far.

 

Chuck, Jay argues that the comparison ought to be best for best. The 9.4 might be the best Cerebus but it is far from the best H181 therefore the comparison is not fair to make.

 

The best H181 arguably sells for more than the best Cerebus 1.

 

However, I am very certain H181 is more important, but I'm probably not quite as sure as Jay that it is also more valuable than Cerebus 1. I think that may be more complex than that - but it would certainly also be wrong to say the opposite... that Cerebus is more valuable than H181 ... it seems to me.

Edited August 22, 2014 by AlexanderM

[PeterPark]

If there were 2000 copies of Spawn 1, can you imagine the price it would go for?

 

The B&W Spawn #1 is reputed to be limited to 2,000 copies, and look what it sells for...

 

 

Apples and oranges. How many more were kept? And in nice condition?

 

You mean, comparing the value of Spawn #1 with the B&W Spawn #1 is an apples and oranges comparison...?

 

 

Yeah, the B/W issue is a different point. Imagine how expensive Spawn 1 (an important book, but insanely common) would be if only 2000 copies existed (all 1st prints combined)

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

I didn't check GPA for Cerebus. I assumed it probably was more valuable because if it has just a little fan crowd it should be more valuable given the small print run. But if it cannot even outdo Hulk 181 on value given much lower print run... then there is really no discussion.

 

RMA - just this to you. You try to pick apart Jay's response, but you make so many mistakes it would fill the entire page to to the same to your posts. For example he says that 181 had a boatload more chances to get 9.9 or 10. Your answer is "I don't think you understand what 9.9 or 10 means". That is not only arrogant, it is also wrong.. He (like all of us) understands very very what 9.9 is... and no matter how strict the grade is, he is still right that the muuuuch higher print run gave the book a mich higher chance of getting 9.9. Probably 10 times, 100 times or even higher chance. That does not mean the chance is high. It might have gone 100 fold up from a very low decimal number. So it is still an extremely low chance, but it has increased many many times... and that was his point. You keep misunderstanding logic time and time again.

 

Alexander, let's lay off the hyperbole, ok? It doesn't advance your position.

 

No one "misunderstood" anything. The problem Jaydog has is that he is loose, like you, with the language. I can forgive you, as it seems like you are European, and English may not be your first language (I am perfectly happy to be corrected on this), but Jaydog has no such excuse.

 

When someone says a book has "a boatload of chances at a 9.9", it shows that they don't really understand what makes 9.9 and 10 such freaks. Is it true generally that a higher print run gives a book more chances of obtaining a 9.9?

 

Obviously.

 

However..,print run alone is not the only determining factor on whether a particular issue has an actual chance of obtaining a 9.9 or 10. There are books with literally MILLIONS of copies printed, that will never, ever get a 9.9 or 10, because of the nature of the books themselves, and the 9.9 and 10 grades. Those books, which had far, far, FAR more copies printed than Hulk #181, have ZERO chance, much less a "boatload", of ever obtaining a 9.9 or 10 (X-Force #1, for example), under the current system at CGC.

 

There are entire print runs worth of books that will never, and COULD never, obtain a 9.9 or 10, right off the presses. Those books had ZERO chance, ever, regardless of the size of their print runs.

 

Conversely, there are books with 1,000, 2,000, 5,000 copy print runs that have multiple 9.9s and/or 10s, simply because of the way they were manufactured. Far, far lower print run...but an actual "boatload" more chance at 9.9s and 10s.

 

Because print run alone isn't the determining factor.

 

Got any other examples of my many mistakes...?

 

 

 

It is obvious Hulk 181 is a far more important book.

 

It is also more valuable? This can be a bit questioned I think, but in light of Jay's analysis above the most logical answer (despite a couple of guys' attempts to use school yard tactics to pretend to be right) is that Hulk 181 is also the most valuable.

 

Which school yard tactics would those be?

 

 

The most logical answer is that Cerebus #1 is more valuable in grades 9.2 and above, because we have sales data to prove it.

 

Why do you dispute that?

 

It's cut and dried. It couldn't be clearer. Whatever sells for more is worth more.

 

Why do you gents keep disputing this?

 

And... if there was an even number of the two (let's say just as many cerebus as there are now H181) then a Cerebus would most probably be worth about the same as a Thor 158 or there about....across grades.

 

There have been more What Ifs in this thread than the entire output of Marvel since 1977.

 

What Ifs don't count.

 

What if Hulk #181 was made of gold?

 

What if Cerebus #1 was written by Thomas Jefferson?

 

What if the Titanic hadn't sunk in 1912, but carried on as a passenger ship until 1977, when it happened to be carrying the entire print run of Cerebus, and it smashed into a giant monster named Mothra over the Sea of Japan and sunk?

 

You have no idea what Cerebus #1 would be worth if it had the same number of copies extant as Hulk #181..claiming it would be worth the same as Thor #158 is complete and utter speculation, without foundation.

[porcupine48]

 

Actually Alexander as of now cerebus is only more "valuable" than hulk 181 in exactly ONE grade.....A 9.4.

 

This isn't true, you know this isn't true, it's been explained repeatedly why this isn't true, but you keep on repeating things that aren't true.

 

Jaydog, why do you keep doing this? It has been explained why this isn't true, yet you keep repeating it as if it is.

 

Why?

 

Are you aware you're doing it? Are you a student of propaganda, which says to just lie, lie, lie, and the longer and more boldly and often you lie, the more likely it is to be believed?

 

What you have said IS NOT TRUE. The 9.2 price you're comparing is from 2005, and you're comparing it to a price from 2014. You CANNOT make that comparison without including that information. It is DISHONEST to continue to do so.

 

If a 9.6 shows up, do you think it will sell for LESS THAN a 9.4? If a 9.8 shows up, do you think it will sell for LESS THAN a 9.4?

 

If you are interested in being taken seriously around here, stop repeating things that are patently untrue.

 

So essentially the pro-cerebus argument at this point is that those 3 highest graded cerebus 1's that have sold three times in ten years for up to 10k, warrant the book being ranked higher on overstreet's list.

 

There are five 9.4 Cerebus #1s, not three. The book has sold four times, as recorded at GPA, in ten years, not three. Details matter.

 

And as stated multiple times, in multiple ways, no, that is NOT the argument that is being made. GPA data is just one source that the OPG uses to determine values.

 

The fact that hulk 181 blows it out of the water in literally every single other grade, even though there are 50 times more copies of it out there apparently counts for nothing.

 

Hulk #181 does NOT "blow it out of the water" in any grade above 9.0.

 

The pro-cerebus folks

 

 

There aren't "pro-cerebus" folks. There are "pro-fact", "pro-reason", "pro-logic" folks.

 

don't care to acknowledge the great likelihood that those three 9.4 cerebus 1's, when available, get bid up by fans who are chasing "single highest graded" books as trophy pieces for their collection.

 

So? Is demand more or less valid based on why it exists? "Oh, THAT price doesn't count, because he's buying it as a trophy piece!"...?

 

And "single highest graded" means there is ONE copy at the highest grade. "Single" refers to the quantity of the slabs, not the quality of the height.

 

Kind of like that 9.6 GL 76. Or even the 9.9 ASM 194 that went for 5k, I believe on heritage recently. A 9.8 of the same ASM 194 drops all the way down to about $850. Methinks a similar phenomenon would explain why cerebus 1 is such a non factor in every single grade that isn't the single highest grade....

 

No. It doesn't work that way.

 

So let's talk about those "single highest graded" book collectors. What were they willing to pay for that in a hulk 181. $150k is what they were willing to pay. Sorry folks, it is an apt comparison.

 

Sorry, Jaydog, but it's not. But you keep repeating it, and I'll keep disputing it.

 

For whatever reason, cerebus 1 is not available past a 9.4. For cerebus a 9.4 is the "single highest grade".

 

That's not what "single highest grade" means.

 

For hulk 181 it is a 9.9.

 

That IS what "single highest grade" means. Because there's a SINGLE copy in that grade.

 

Hulk 181 had a boatload more chances to yield a 9.9 because it has a far, far greater print run than cerebus.

 

A "boatload"?

 

I don't think you really understand what the 9.9 and 10 grades really mean.

 

And what does hulk 181 go for in the second highest grade ? A 9.8 just went for about 12k if I'm not mistaken. Let's please not try to have our cake and eat it too by hyping up how "rare" and "important" cerebus 1 is to justify what it sells for, and then whine about how there's no sales data and point to mysterious, off the books sales that only overstreet knows about to explain your position.

 

You just contradicted yourself in one breath.

 

If it's rare, it's not going to have a lot of sales data. Not "no." Just not much.

 

And you are mischaracterizing the situation for your own argument yet again: OPG doesn't use "mysterious, off the books sales"...there's nothing "mysterious" or "off the books" about it: GPA isn't the sole source of information that the OPG uses.

 

How do you think Overstreet came up with prices for 3 decades before CGC and GPA existed?

 

~ ahem ~

 

Continuing on....

 

And then simultaneously knock hulk 181 for being so plentiful and then disregard its top sales in its respective top grades because they are not literally "the identical" grade as cerebus' top grade (being only a 9.4). If you really think cerebus 1 is worthy of swimming in hulk 181's waters, then let it, and let's see what happens.....

 

I have to say this again: comparing "top grades" is not appropriate when those top grades are not the same

 

"The top grade for Book X is 6.5, and the top grade for Book Y is 9.8, so it's valid to compare the value of a 6.5 against a 9.8, because they're both "top grade."

 

That is self-evidently false.

 

You use the language of the propagandist very well, Jaydog. You use emotionally charged words like "hyping" and "whine" and "mysterious" and "knock"...none of which anyone has done.

 

This has been a sober discussion, and no one has resorted to hyperbole, speculation, and emotionally charged buzzwords to discredit the opposing argument except you and some of those making the same argument.

 

"Well, what if THIS, and what if THAT, and what if the OTHER??"

 

It's not about "What ifs"...it's about what IS.

 

So in an apples to apples comparison we have a cerebus 1 in the single highest grade get bid up to 9k recently. For hulk 181 the single highest grade gets bid up to 150k, four years ago, long after the book crashed and long before its recent and powerful resurgence.

 

It is not an "apples to apples comparison" to compare the value of a book in 9.4 to a book in 9.9.

 

Repeat: It is not an "apples to apples comparison" to compare the value of a book in 9.4 to a book in 9.9.

 

"Long after the book crashed"...?

 

Did you really just say...on this message board...that the value of Hulk #181 "crashed"...?

 

Really?

 

Then for the second highest grade (of which there are also only 3 copies) we have a cerebus 1 maaaaaaaybe go for 3k. But more likely 2500-2800, and all three of those are SS file copies. For hulk 181 the second highest grade (for which there are 79 copies) is 11-12k.

 

This is not a valid comparison. You cannot compare a 9.2 to a 9.8.

 

After that cerebus 1 drops like a rock in "value" while hulk 181 slowly tapers down, maintaining a four digit selling price all the way down to a 7.0, and raw, tattered rags with no MVS selling for close to 400, which is about what a VF raw copy of cerebus 1 last went for on ebay.

 

So which comic really is more "valuable"?

 

In 9.2 and above? Clearly, the Cerebus #1.

 

I thought we established this pages ago.

 

If you look only at the three highest graded 9.4 examples of cerebus 1 that have sold in 10 years versus the 350 copies of a 9.4 hulk 181 (a multiple of over 100x), then cerebus 1 is. But of course that would be downright silly if you were to do that. Wouldn't it be, overstreet?

 

Because if you compare the single highest graded copy of hulk 181 to the single highest graded for cerebus 1.....hulk wins. By a lot.

 

Comparing a 9.4 to a 9.9 is not a valid comparison.

 

Again: Comparing a 9.4 to a 9.9 is not a valid comparison.

 

If you compare sales of the second highest graded copies to each other .... hulk wins. By a lot.

 

Comparing a 9.2 to a 9.8 is not a valid comparison.

 

Again: Comparing a 9.2 to a 9.8 is not a valid comparison.

 

If you compare each book grade for grade (other than the single highest for each book)....hulk wins..... in every single grade, and by an ever expanding percentage as you go further down the grading scale.

 

To sum it up....hulk 181 wins.

 

This is not true, as has already been explained ad nauseam.

 

The last remaining crux of RMA (and a couple others) pro-cerebus 1 argument is a literalist's approach: "three highest graded 9.4 copies of cerebus 1 have sold for more than any one of the 350 copies of 9.4 hulk 181's have sold for, so overstreet got it right." They won't acknowledge the possibility of price dilution for hulk 181 in grade,

 

Words literally fail to express the depth of astonishment I feel at reading such a statement. You literally made my jaw drop when I read this statement.

 

No one "won't acknowledge the possibility of price dilution", because that is precisely WHY Hulk #181 is worth less. There is more SUPPLY.

 

That's the "supply" part of "supply and demand."

 

Jaydog, seriously man. Seriously.

 

even as they trumpet the stratospheric sales price of the ONE copy of the single highest graded 9.4 copy of cerebus 1 that just sold (for over 1000 LESS than it did five years ago), and salivate over what ONE 9.8 copy of a cerebus 1 might go for if it ever came to market. (On a side note, if that ever did happen, I wonder what that would do to the value of your 9.4's.... )

 

Please stop using propaganda words like "trumpet" and "salivate." You can make your point without resorting to propaganda, honest.

 

No, overstreet got it wrong. Very wrong. Because in the real world hulk 181 is the undisputed king of the BA, value-wise, importance to the hobby-wise, historical-wise, and every single other "wise" you can think of. When hulk 181 tanked it literally took the entire Bronze Age with it.

 

In "the real world", Cerebus #1 in 9.2 and above is worth more than Hulk #181. Period.

 

When did Hulk #181 tank? (Nevermind, you don't answer direct questions anyways.)

 

Cerebus 1 meanwhile is a foot note. A novelty. A curiosity. If the book suddenly tanked in value over night it wouldn't even cause a ripple in the market. Does that mean the book is a piece of junk and has no value ? Obviously not. Clearly it has its fans, devotees, and passionate collectors. And that is never a bad thing for the hobby. Just let's not lose sight of the big picture and common sense. The OP originally began this thread questioning the book's place on overstreet's top BA list ahead of hulk 181. For all the reasons cited above, his point is well taken. Thanks for reading.

 

-J.

 

Yes, let's please not lose sight of the big picture and common sense.

 

Cerebus #1 is a more valuable book than Hulk #181 in high grade, for all the reasons already well explained. No "what ifs". No hyperbole. That is the reason why it is in the top BA list ahead of Hulk #181: because it is worth more in high grade.

 

The numbers don't lie.

 

I just do not want to imagine that you actually believe all of this.

 

 

Thank you RMA, you did not fail to disappoint. But before I leave you to this thread and your beloved copy of Cerebus 1, I will say this...

 

1) Prior to ebay, GPA, the internet, and cell phones, Overstreet relied on reports from dealers and LCS for its data. Guess what dude, it's 2014 now. He MAY still get SOME info that way still, but the vast majority of data is readily available to the public, and easily verifiable by anyone in this day and age.

 

2) The most recent sale of a Hulk 181 beats anything a Cerebus 1 has ever sold for in a 9.2. Don't have any public sales in a 9.2 for a Cerebus 1 in nearly 10 years? That's not Hulk 181's problem. Anything you "think" a 9.2 would go for now is just speculation. But estimates have been 2500-2800, based on the recent, verifiable sale of an 8.5 (fourth highest graded) which could barely eek out a meager $850.

 

3) When did Hulk 181 crash? Remember when a 9.8 was going for 20 grand? Oh, okay.

 

4) People don't pay a premium to have the highest graded example of a book, regardless of what that "highest grade" might be? Really RMA? For someone who purports to carry the torch for "facts" and "truth", you are so frequently WRONG it boggles the mind. Instead of seizing on minutiae to distract from the point, let's try staying on it: New Mutants 98, 10.0 anyone? GL 76, 9.6? Hulk 181, 9.9? ASM 194, 9.9? Avengers 4, 9.6? All of these "single highest grade" copies sold for EXTREME multiples of their next highest graded counterparts. Hey my man, just out of curiosity, what do you think that "highest graded" Action 1, 9.0 on ebay will go for? You think the buyer will end up paying a premium for that? Do you think that it will matter to him that there's another 9.0 on the census? It's still the "Single highest grade" available for the book. I didn't say the "single copy with the highest grade". See the difference between the two terms now?

 

So why do you think this is not a phenomenon that is in fact, very real and palpable, and why do you think it doesn't apply to the ONE grade (the highest), that Cerebus 1 currently out-sells Hulk 181 for (and pardon me, FIVE copies in ten years, because that makes such a big difference to the point than three copies in ten years)?

 

Why do you think it doesn't apply? Because it is inconvenient to what you evidently need to believe about this book. You're right, no one needs to make a case for Hulk 181, the book stands on its own as one of the pillars of the entire hobby. Deal with it. It's the Cerebus 1 that needs the apologists, qualifiers, bargaining, excuse-making and a dozen caveats for it to have any kind of relevance beyond the collections of die hard devotees. Which is, as I said before, also good for the hobby, but not in the same way that Hulk 181 is good for the hobby, and not on anywhere near the same level.

 

You can go on and on about how the 5 copies of Cerebus 9.4 are "worth" more than a hulk 181 in a 9.4, because at this point, that's all you have left to hang your hat on I get it.

 

But under no circumstances could any unbiased, reasonable person say that Cerebus 1 is more "valuable" than Hulk 181.

 

-J.

 

 

 

 

I've already addressed all of this, and you remain incorrect. There's really nothing more that can be said about ground already covered.

 

I'm still waiting for your weighted analysis of Hulk #181 in all grades.

 

A diatribe against Cerebus #1 isn't a weighted analysis. I would like figures, in all grades, which is what an analysis is. Leave Cerebus #1 out of the picture, just focus on Hulk #181.

 

I am still interested in this information, if you are willing and able to give it.

 

 

Just wanted to be in the longest post/quote I have ever seen.

Seriously. This is like a car wreck...horrible but I keep on morbidly lurking and looking.

[bronze johnny]

So, if you had only one opportunity in your life time to add only one of these books to your collection in CGC 9.2 which would it be?

 

Hulk 181

 

or

 

Cerebus 1

 

Remember, only one chance in a lifetime to pick one of these 2 books (and both happen to be CGC 9.2s with white pages).

 

Me personally? The Cerebus 1. But that has nothing to do with this discussion.

 

I would take a 35 cent Scooby Doo #1 over either of them, and I demand to see it crack the OSPG Top Ten immediately.

 

So would I

 

So, you're ok with never having Hulk 181 in your collection? A variant is more significant to you?

[Prince Namor]

Yes, when Jay changes the parameters of the topic, he makes his point correct.

 

"A Hulk 181 9.9 is more valuable than a 9.4 Cerebus #1!"

 

Duh.

 

No one is disputing that.

 

He IS however trying to dispute the validity of Cerebus #1's value in high grade vs IH181 in high grade which is proven even more conclusively by: (Any national dealer on this board, if given a chance, would buy a Cerebus #1 CGC 9.4 over a Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 - if offered either one or the other - for $500.) Which he continues to ignore.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Yep. It can't be disputed. It's real world application of economics.

 

No matter what jaydog or anyone thinks, (Any national dealer on this board, if given a chance, would buy a Cerebus #1 CGC 9.4 over a Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 - if offered either one or the other - for $500.) is FACT.

 

Because it's a more valuable book.

 

You have said that 3 times now.

 

I'm not sure it can be disputed nor needs to be disputed.

 

What I do know is that H181 is a vastly more important book (everyone seems to agree on this now),

 

Now??

 

NOW???

 

 

and that Jay has argued in the most logical manner of the two sides so far.

 

Chuck, Jay argues that the comparison ought to be best for best. The 9.4 might be the best Cerebus but it is far from the best H181 therefore the comparison is not fair to make.

 

The best H181 arguably sells for more than the best Cerebus 1.

 

You. Cannot. Compare. A. 9.4. To. A. 9.9.

 

Again:

 

You CANNOT compare a 9.4 of ANYTHING to a 9.9 of ANYTHING.

 

It is NOT a valid comparison.

 

However, I am very certain H181 is more important, but I'm probably not quite as sure as Jay that it is also more valuable than Cerebus 1. I think that may be more complex than that - but it would certainly also be wrong to say the opposite... that Cerebus is more valuable than H181 ... it seems to me.

 

Why do you dispute recorded facts?

[RockMyAmadeus]

Yes, when Jay changes the parameters of the topic, he makes his point correct.

 

"A Hulk 181 9.9 is more valuable than a 9.4 Cerebus #1!"

 

Duh.

 

No one is disputing that.

 

He IS however trying to dispute the validity of Cerebus #1's value in high grade vs IH181 in high grade which is proven even more conclusively by: (Any national dealer on this board, if given a chance, would buy a Cerebus #1 CGC 9.4 over a Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 - if offered either one or the other - for $500.) Which he continues to ignore.

 

He resents that anyone pays more money for Cerebus #1 in the same grade as Hulk #181. That's why he ignores it, and hopes to blur that point.

 

Sales data doesn't lie.

 

Cerebus #1 9.4 - $9,000.

 

Hulk #181 9.4 - $3,350.

 

Which one is worth more?

[RockMyAmadeus]

So, if you had only one opportunity in your life time to add only one of these books to your collection in CGC 9.2 which would it be?

 

Hulk 181

 

or

 

Cerebus 1

 

Remember, only one chance in a lifetime to pick one of these 2 books (and both happen to be CGC 9.2s with white pages).

 

Me personally? The Cerebus 1. But that has nothing to do with this discussion.

 

I would take a 35 cent Scooby Doo #1 over either of them, and I demand to see it crack the OSPG Top Ten immediately.

 

So would I

 

So, you're ok with never having Hulk 181 in your collection? A variant is more significant to you?

"What you collect sucks! What I collect RULES!!!"

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Because I am, and you are wrong.

 

 

That is quite possibly the most UNscientific thing I have ever read on these board.

 

Thank you, Alex.

[porcupine48]

Yes, when Jay changes the parameters of the topic, he makes his point correct.

 

"A Hulk 181 9.9 is more valuable than a 9.4 Cerebus #1!"

 

Duh.

 

No one is disputing that.

 

He IS however trying to dispute the validity of Cerebus #1's value in high grade vs IH181 in high grade which is proven even more conclusively by: (Any national dealer on this board, if given a chance, would buy a Cerebus #1 CGC 9.4 over a Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 - if offered either one or the other - for $500.) Which he continues to ignore.

 

He resents that anyone pays more money for Cerebus #1 in the same grade as Hulk #181. That's why he ignores it, and hopes to blur that point.

 

Sales data doesn't lie.

 

Cerebus #1 9.4 - $9,000.

 

Hulk #181 9.4 - $3,350.

 

Which one is worth more?

Well,the more popular one.

God this thread is making me cry

[RockMyAmadeus]

If there were 2000 copies of Spawn 1, can you imagine the price it would go for?

 

The B&W Spawn #1 is reputed to be limited to 2,000 copies, and look what it sells for...

 

 

Apples and oranges. How many more were kept? And in nice condition?

 

You mean, comparing the value of Spawn #1 with the B&W Spawn #1 is an apples and oranges comparison...?

 

 

Yeah, the B/W issue is a different point. Imagine how expensive Spawn 1 (an important book, but insanely common) would be if only 2000 copies existed (all 1st prints combined)

 

 

Ok, forget my example completely.

 

It clearly was as irrelevant as comparing it to a slice of blueberry cheesecake.

 

 

The better question is: imagine how UNimportant Spawn #1 would be if there had ONLY been 2,000 copies printed in the first place....

[AlexanderM]

 

I didn't check GPA for Cerebus. I assumed it probably was more valuable because if it has just a little fan crowd it should be more valuable given the small print run. But if it cannot even outdo Hulk 181 on value given much lower print run... then there is really no discussion.

 

RMA - just this to you. You try to pick apart Jay's response, but you make so many mistakes it would fill the entire page to to the same to your posts. For example he says that 181 had a boatload more chances to get 9.9 or 10. Your answer is "I don't think you understand what 9.9 or 10 means". That is not only arrogant, it is also wrong.. He (like all of us) understands very very what 9.9 is... and no matter how strict the grade is, he is still right that the muuuuch higher print run gave the book a mich higher chance of getting 9.9. Probably 10 times, 100 times or even higher chance. That does not mean the chance is high. It might have gone 100 fold up from a very low decimal number. So it is still an extremely low chance, but it has increased many many times... and that was his point. You keep misunderstanding logic time and time again.

 

Alexander, let's lay off the hyperbole, ok? It doesn't advance your position.

 

No one "misunderstood" anything. The problem Jaydog has is that he is loose, like you, with the language. I can forgive you, as it seems like you are European, and English may not be your first language (I am perfectly happy to be corrected on this), but Jaydog has no such excuse.

 

When someone says a book has "a boatload of chances at a 9.9", it shows that they don't really understand what makes 9.9 and 10 such freaks. Is it true generally that a higher print run gives a book more chances of obtaining a 9.9?

 

Obviously.

 

However..,print run alone is not the only determining factor on whether a particular issue has an actual chance of obtaining a 9.9 or 10. There are books with literally MILLIONS of copies printed, that will never, ever get a 9.9 or 10, because of the nature of the books themselves, and the 9.9 and 10 grades. Those books, which had far, far, FAR more copies printed than Hulk #181, have ZERO chance, much less a "boatload", of ever obtaining a 9.9 or 10 (X-Force #1, for example), under the current system at CGC.

 

There are entire print runs worth of books that will never, and COULD never, obtain a 9.9 or 10, right off the presses. Those books had ZERO chance, ever, regardless of the size of their print runs.

 

Conversely, there are books with 1,000, 2,000, 5,000 copy print runs that have multiple 9.9s and/or 10s, simply because of the way they were manufactured. Far, far lower print run...but an actual "boatload" more chance at 9.9s and 10s.

 

Because print run alone isn't the determining factor.

 

Got any other examples of my many mistakes...?

 

 

 

It is obvious Hulk 181 is a far more important book.

 

It is also more valuable? This can be a bit questioned I think, but in light of Jay's analysis above the most logical answer (despite a couple of guys' attempts to use school yard tactics to pretend to be right) is that Hulk 181 is also the most valuable.

 

Which school yard tactics would those be?

 

 

The most logical answer is that Cerebus #1 is more valuable in grades 9.2 and above, because we have sales data to prove it.

 

Why do you dispute that?

 

It's cut and dried. It couldn't be clearer. Whatever sells for more is worth more.

 

Why do you gents keep disputing this?

 

And... if there was an even number of the two (let's say just as many cerebus as there are now H181) then a Cerebus would most probably be worth about the same as a Thor 158 or there about....across grades.

 

There have been more What Ifs in this thread than the entire output of Marvel since 1977.

 

What Ifs don't count.

 

What if Hulk #181 was made of gold?

 

What if Cerebus #1 was written by Thomas Jefferson?

 

What if the Titanic hadn't sunk in 1912, but carried on as a passenger ship until 1977, when it happened to be carrying the entire print run of Cerebus, and it smashed into a giant monster named Mothra over the Sea of Japan and sunk?

 

You have no idea what Cerebus #1 would be worth if it had the same number of copies extant as Hulk #181..claiming it would be worth the same as Thor #158 is complete and utter speculation, without foundation.

 

 

If you read what I said, you would know that I do not insist H181 is more valuable. But I think it is wrong to claim that Cerebus is more valuable than H181. It may be possible to make an argument that it is more worth at a few grades, while H181 is more valuable at other grades. That still does not make it right to claim that Cerebus is more valuable as an overarching statement.

 

Is Cerebus worth more at 9.4? Perhaps. There is probably too little data to really know. If someone found a trailer with 10.000 copies of each comic.... in grade 9.4. Would dealers then really prefer to buy the Cerebus ones?..... really?

 

I mean... if it in itself is more valuable.... surely they would... but I doubt they actually would.

 

Now we know of few copies.. this gives us a lack of data, and if the next 9.4 sells for half the price... that is basically the price (more or less) because there are not enough sales to really know what the FMV is. So there is a possibility it might be, or it might not be. From the insufficient data we have right this minute - it might be in 9.4.

 

And yes, I'm European.. English is not my first language.

Edited August 22, 2014 by AlexanderM

[FlyingDonut]

1) Prior to ebay, GPA, the internet, and cell phones, Overstreet relied on reports from dealers and LCS for its data. Guess what dude, it's 2014 now. He MAY still get SOME info that way still, but the vast majority of data is readily available to the public, and easily verifiable by anyone in this day and age.

 

2) The most recent sale of a Hulk 181 beats anything a Cerebus 1 has ever sold for in a 9.2. Don't have any public sales in a 9.2 for a Cerebus 1 in nearly 10 years? That's not Hulk 181's problem. Anything you "think" a 9.2 would go for now is just speculation. But estimates have been 2500-2800, based on the recent, verifiable sale of an 8.5 (fourth highest graded) which could barely eek out a meager $850.

 

 

1) Really? Would you care to show me sales data from every small local comic show, every major convention, every dealer website, etc. for the last year? Certainly more sales data is publicly available now than in 1980, but give me a break.

 

2) The most recent sale of Hulk 181 9.2 is also more than any Hulk 181 has sold for (at least recently, I don't know if any sold for more ten years ago or whatever). A single sale of a common book that sells regularly is nearly meaningless.

 

What is the value of Amazing Spider-Man Annual 21?

[FlyingDonut]

1) Prior to ebay, GPA, the internet, and cell phones, Overstreet relied on reports from dealers and LCS for its data. Guess what dude, it's 2014 now. He MAY still get SOME info that way still, but the vast majority of data is readily available to the public, and easily verifiable by anyone in this day and age.

 

2) The most recent sale of a Hulk 181 beats anything a Cerebus 1 has ever sold for in a 9.2. Don't have any public sales in a 9.2 for a Cerebus 1 in nearly 10 years? That's not Hulk 181's problem. Anything you "think" a 9.2 would go for now is just speculation. But estimates have been 2500-2800, based on the recent, verifiable sale of an 8.5 (fourth highest graded) which could barely eek out a meager $850.

 

 

1) Really? Would you care to show me sales data from every small local comic show, every major convention, every dealer website, etc. for the last year? Certainly more sales data is publicly available now than in 1980, but give me a break.

 

2) The most recent sale of Hulk 181 9.2 is also more than any Hulk 181 has sold for (at least recently, I don't know if any sold for more ten years ago or whatever). A single sale of a common book that sells regularly is nearly meaningless.

 

..As are one or two sales of a book with a miniscule print run every 10 years. You can't have it both ways Lazy.

 

-J.

 

Yes, you can. "have it both ways" (which is not really the case here )

 

You have to go with the data you have.

 

The data you have on the Hulk #181 states that you are being quite unreasonable using the most extreme price the book has ever sold for in that grade as a valid example.

 

You're right, I agree. We work with what we have. And right now, for a hulk 181, 9.2, that's what we have. We also have this now:

 

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw=incredible+hulk+181&_in_kw=1&_ex_kw=&_sacat=1&LH_Sold=1&_mPrRngCbx=1&_udlo=1000&_udhi=10000000&_samilow=&_samihi=&_sadis=15&_stpos=&_sargn=-1%26saslc%3D1&_salic=1&_sanli=1&_sop=12&_dmd=1&_ipg=200&LH_Complete=1

 

Look, there's a 7.0 that just broke $1000 for the first time, just four days after the new 9.2 high. That means that a hulk 181, 7.0 is now 15% more "valuable" than a cerebus 1, 8.5. According to our most recent sales data.

 

-J.

 

I don't think anyone has ever disputed that.

[bronze johnny]

So, if you had only one opportunity in your life time to add only one of these books to your collection in CGC 9.2 which would it be?

 

Hulk 181

 

or

 

Cerebus 1

 

Remember, only one chance in a lifetime to pick one of these 2 books (and both happen to be CGC 9.2s with white pages).

 

Me personally? The Cerebus 1. But that has nothing to do with this discussion.

 

I would take a 35 cent Scooby Doo #1 over either of them, and I demand to see it crack the OSPG Top Ten immediately.

 

So would I

 

So, you're ok with never having Hulk 181 in your collection? A variant is more significant to you?

"What you collect sucks! What I collect RULES!!!"

 

 

I don't have a problem with that. Hulk 181 along with GS X-Men 1 had such a tremendous impact on the history of the American Comic Book. The next 3 decades were dominated by the Mutants. And Wolverine stood as he does now, at the top of this age. Very easy to say what you don't have SUX,, but you can't say this particular book SUX. The fact that you prefer any book to Hulk 181 is your right but you can't say Wolverine's first appearance SUX just like you can't say the Spidey's first app. SUX too.

 

A once in a lifetime opportunity to own an iconic book like Hulk 181 will for most collectors be a crowning achievement even if there are plenty around. Relatively speaking, there are plenty of AF 15s around too. In time, the many Hulk 181s will be sought after by future generations especially since Wolverine's staying power continues to rise. It's just a matter of time.

[PeterPark]

So, if you had only one opportunity in your life time to add only one of these books to your collection in CGC 9.2 which would it be?

 

Hulk 181

 

or

 

Cerebus 1

 

Remember, only one chance in a lifetime to pick one of these 2 books (and both happen to be CGC 9.2s with white pages).

 

Me personally? The Cerebus 1. But that has nothing to do with this discussion.

 

I would take a 35 cent Scooby Doo #1 over either of them, and I demand to see it crack the OSPG Top Ten immediately.

 

So would I

 

So, you're ok with never having Hulk 181 in your collection? A variant is more significant to you?

 

I can get a Hulk 181 every day of the week. I'd take the Scooby even in vastly lower grade.

[RockMyAmadeus]

But under no circumstances could any unbiased, reasonable person say that Cerebus 1 is more "valuable" than Hulk 181.

 

Again, you're just wrong here.

 

It is proven, demonstrably more valuable grade-for-grade than IH 181 in 9.2, 9.4 and whatever other mythical 9.6 copies may exist.

 

The market data say so; at least three reputable comic dealers in this thread say so; RMA (with whom I usually disagree) has delineated the myriad reasons why it is so (namely, the factual sales); and Overstreet's says so.

 

You may want to check your facts on that...

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/INCREDIBLE-HULK-181-WHITE-PAGES-CGC-GRADED-9-2-NOVEMBER-1974-/400755267796?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item5d4ee018d4

 

No cerebus 1, 9.2 has ever come in spitting distance of this.

 

And this sale strongly suggests that it wouldn't, if one were to come up for sale:

 

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/CEREBUS-1-CGC-8-5-2000-PRINT-RUN-SUPER-RARE-IN-THIS-CONDITION-HTF-/251567379955?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3a929595f3

 

We don't need rumour and word of mouth from dealers and rampant speculation, when we have publicly available sales to cull at our fingertips. Hence the point of my prior post.

 

-J.

 

Yes, by all means, let's please use the record price (a whopping 30% over the previous record, itself only established 2 weeks prior) to demonstrate what is typical.

 

 

And nevermind the well established fact that the rarer the book, the more exponential the price leaps at each step up.

 

Facts? We don't need no stinking facts.

 

 

Okay I get it now...so we can use ONE sale of a cerebus 1 to determine a "trend", but hulk 181? Don't be ridiculous.

 

-J.

 

No, which is a point you have been missing since the beginning.

 

You CANNOT use one sale of a Cerebus #1 to determine a trend. And no one has, except in your mind.

 

What you CAN do, however, is use it to extrapolate what is POSSIBLE, based on other information. And extrapolating, comparing like with like, Cerebus #1 in 9.2 is going to be worth more than Hulk #181 9.2 at this time.

 

With the Hulk #181, no extrapolation is necessary. You have more than enough information to paint a clear picture of its value in 9.2.

 

You also CANNOT use the most extreme price that a 9.2 Hulk #181 has sold for, 30% higher than it has EVER sold for, as an "example." Extremes are not typical.

 

You know that...right? I mean, right...?

 

Oh okay. Riiiiiight I see what you're doing now. So you're COUNTING on some additional hulk 181 sales in a 9.2 to dilute the impact of this "record shattering" sale. Is that it?

 

No.

 

While we sit around and ASSUME that the next time a Cerebus 1 9.2 came up it maybe, just might sell for this or that. Even though a very nice presenting high grade Cerebus 1 8.5 just flopped on ebay with its $850 sale. Am I getting it now , RMA? Please school me, lest I be accused of "trolling" by you again.

 

-J.

 

An 8,5 copy of Cerebus #1 is not the same thing as a 9.2 copy of Cerebus #1.

 

You lack understanding of the dynamics of the census with regards to rare books.

 

[AlexanderM]

Lets take an average BMW... and an average Toyota. Which one is more valuable? The BMW.

 

Now, let's say someone found 10.000 more of each (or the companies decided to make 10.000 more of each..same thing) then .... which oen is now the more valuable?

 

Obviously still the BMW... it is just a better and more valuable car..

 

right?

 

Now...

 

Let's say someone found 10.000 H181s and 10.000 Cerebus 1s...(all in 9.4 grade)

 

As a dealer.... which load would you buy?

 

The 10.000 IH181s.. or the 10.000 Cerebus 1s?

 

Think like a businessman....which one...?

Edited August 22, 2014 by AlexanderM

[RockMyAmadeus]

So, if you had only one opportunity in your life time to add only one of these books to your collection in CGC 9.2 which would it be?

 

Hulk 181

 

or

 

Cerebus 1

 

Remember, only one chance in a lifetime to pick one of these 2 books (and both happen to be CGC 9.2s with white pages).

 

Me personally? The Cerebus 1. But that has nothing to do with this discussion.

 

I would take a 35 cent Scooby Doo #1 over either of them, and I demand to see it crack the OSPG Top Ten immediately.

 

So would I

 

So, you're ok with never having Hulk 181 in your collection? A variant is more significant to you?

"What you collect sucks! What I collect RULES!!!"

 

 

I don't have a problem with that. Hulk 181 along with GS X-Men 1 had such a tremendous impact on the history of the American Comic Book. The next 3 decades were dominated by the Mutants. And Wolverine stood as he does now, at the top of this age. Very easy to say what you don't have SUX,, but you can't say this particular book SUX. The fact that you prefer any book to Hulk 181 is your right but you can't say Wolverine's first appearance SUX just like you can't say the Spidey's first app. SUX too.

 

There are quotation marks for a reason. YOU are the one saying "what you collect sucks, what I collect rules!!, not I, which is the attitude you are displaying. I respect whatever someone is interested in collecting, and I give preference to those collectors who seek the truly scarce, difficult to obtain books.

 

I have owned multiple Hulk #181s. I have never even SEEN a Scooby Doo #1 35 cent variant in person.

 

See Oakman's sig line for further info.

 

A once in a lifetime opportunity to own an iconic book like Hulk 181 will for most collectors be a crowning achievement even if there are plenty around. Relatively speaking, there are plenty of AF 15s around too. In time, the many Hulk 181s will be sought after by future generations especially since Wolverine's staying power continues to rise. It's just a matter of time.

 

Hulk #181? Crowning achievement?

 

The Bronze Age equivalent to playing T-Ball?

 

No thanks.

 

I've got far bigger Detective Comics #27s to fry.