Cerebus 1 a more valuable key than Hulk 181? Really Overstreet? Poll on Page 87 3 3

[RockMyAmadeus]

but no data was presented

 

This is not true.

 

The data has been posted in this thread multiple times, by both "sides" of the discussion.

 

It's right in front of your eyes.

 

I've done more than enough hand holding and explaining to last a thousand threads; I'm not going to do any more. If you can't see it....that's the end of that.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I really wish that I had been online this morning. Probably would have needed to start a new thread reminiscing about my many hours spent playing the original Castle Wolfenstein, and Beyond Castle Wolfenstein(where you actually blew up Hitler Inglorious Basterds style) on my Apple II+.

 

There's a fair chance I would have doubled my post count in a day on that one.

 

 

"Eva....."

[RockMyAmadeus]

but no data was presented

 

This is not true.

 

The data has been posted in this thread multiple times, by both "sides" of the discussion.

 

It's right in front of your eyes.

 

I've done more than enough hand holding and explaining to last a thousand threads; I'm not going to do any more. If you can't see it....that's the end of that.

 

And "downward price trend" is not only not true, it's quite specious.

[bababooey]

I'd change that summary to:

 

- IH 181 has a larger fan base, greater supply & broader demand.

 

- Based on limited results, Cerebus' top two grades available are likely to sell for more than IH 181 in 9.2/9.4.

 

- A downward price trend of "15% for Cerebus 1 over ten year period" was presented by one party with figures - in direct response to a question from the other party; the second party disputed that assessment as wrong but no data was presented nor was any explanation of how the data should be interpreted to rationalize a conclusion that contradicts the simple mathematics used by the first party.

 

 

Sample size is too small.

 

If you get one hit in your first three at bats in the big league's you're hitting .333

No guarantee you'll hit that for the rest of your career OR that you'll hit LESS than that for the rest of your career.

The Sample Size is too small to make a judgement based solely upon the numbers.

 

So taking that to the GPA numbers for Cerebus, we have to defer to an expert for some judgement - someone who sells comics for a living - a national dealer perhaps? And of the ones I've conferred with and asked over the years: Any of them, if given a chance, would buy a Cerebus #1 CGC 9.4 over a Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 - if offered only one or the other - for $500.

 

THEY feel, the book has strong demand and potential to still pull in big bucks. It may NEVER have a large sample size - to some that's as good as it gets - everyone that they get there hands on will pull in big money.

 

It's how it works.

If we're going with sporting analogies & stats then there are things like quarterback rating that don't 'count' until you get a certain number of attempts.

 

Besides, that "what if" scenario has been beaten to death & doesn't work for sample size it only works for value.

 

The more interesting "what if" dealer choice would be if the purchase price for the dealer was $500 less than market value for both books, then which way do they go?

I think many dealers might still choose to go with the rarer book just to have diverse inventory, even if they have to wait a bit for a buyer at their price but I'd bet many smaller guys would choose the book with more data to support the price & broader demand.

 

 

 

 

 

[bababooey]

but no data was presented

 

This is not true.

 

The data has been posted in this thread multiple times, by both "sides" of the discussion.

 

It's right in front of your eyes.

 

I've done more than enough hand holding and explaining to last a thousand threads; I'm not going to do any more. If you can't see it....that's the end of that.

 

And "downward price trend" is not only not true, it's quite specious.

Perhaps it would be clearer if my summary of the points made by others was quoted in full without edits.

- A downward price trend of "15% for Cerebus 1 over ten year period" was presented by one party with figures - in direct response to a question from the other party; the second party disputed that assessment as wrong but no data was presented nor was any explanation of how the data should be interpreted to rationalize a conclusion that contradicts the simple mathematics used by the first party.

specious - misleading in appearance

 

I can only guess as to why you now refuse to hand-hold, link, quote yourself or simply re-state your reasoning about the ten year thing after posting thousands of words on this topic in general.

[Prince Namor]

I'd change that summary to:

 

- IH 181 has a larger fan base, greater supply & broader demand.

 

- Based on limited results, Cerebus' top two grades available are likely to sell for more than IH 181 in 9.2/9.4.

 

- A downward price trend of "15% for Cerebus 1 over ten year period" was presented by one party with figures - in direct response to a question from the other party; the second party disputed that assessment as wrong but no data was presented nor was any explanation of how the data should be interpreted to rationalize a conclusion that contradicts the simple mathematics used by the first party.

 

 

Sample size is too small.

 

If you get one hit in your first three at bats in the big league's you're hitting .333

No guarantee you'll hit that for the rest of your career OR that you'll hit LESS than that for the rest of your career.

The Sample Size is too small to make a judgement based solely upon the numbers.

 

So taking that to the GPA numbers for Cerebus, we have to defer to an expert for some judgement - someone who sells comics for a living - a national dealer perhaps? And of the ones I've conferred with and asked over the years: Any of them, if given a chance, would buy a Cerebus #1 CGC 9.4 over a Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 - if offered only one or the other - for $500.

 

THEY feel, the book has strong demand and potential to still pull in big bucks. It may NEVER have a large sample size - to some that's as good as it gets - everyone that they get there hands on will pull in big money.

 

It's how it works.

If we're going with sporting analogies & stats then there are things like quarterback rating that don't 'count' until you get a certain number of attempts.

 

Besides, that "what if" scenario has been beaten to death & doesn't work for sample size it only works for value.

 

The more interesting "what if" dealer choice would be if the purchase price for the dealer was $500 less than market value for both books, then which way do they go?

I think many dealers might still choose to go with the rarer book just to have diverse inventory, even if they have to wait a bit for a buyer at their price but I'd bet many smaller guys would choose the book with more data to support the price & broader demand.

 

All of which still points to the book being more valuable, which is what we were saying as jaydog was denying.

All that other horsedoo don't mean ding, bottom line, it's been proven and is believed will be proven again that the HIGH GRADE Cerebus #1 will fetch a higher dollar than a Hulk 181 at the same grade.

The national dealers believe and will buy it.

The smaller dealers believe it but may pass out of fear or cash flow.

But they both know it and believe it.

 

So OSPG makes that point and everyone who reached puberty while reading Hulk 181 lost their mind.

[Gatsby77]

The more interesting "what if" dealer choice would be if the purchase price for the dealer was $500 less than market value for both books, then which way do they go?

 

Exactly. If each book was offered for "$500 less than market value," the Cerebus would go for more money. Because, in 9.2 and up, it's worth more (grade for grade) than IH 181.

 

The market value has been established. The current CGC 9.2 value for Cerebus 1 might be theoretical due to lack of recent GPA-verified data, but Overstreet's not wrong to state that Cerebus 1 in 9.2 is worth more than IH 181 in 9.2. That's what it's Top 10 Bronze List means; that's the parameters of the "value" discussion. And on that score, it's the Cerebus.

 

Every time.

[HighStakesComics]

The more interesting "what if" dealer choice would be if the purchase price for the dealer was $500 less than market value for both books, then which way do they go?

 

Exactly. If each book was offered for "$500 less than market value," the Cerebus would go for more money. Because, in 9.2 and up, it's worth more (grade for grade) than IH 181.

 

The market value has been established. The current CGC 9.2 value for Cerebus 1 might be theoretical due to lack of recent GPA-verified data, but Overstreet's not wrong to state that Cerebus 1 in 9.2 is worth more than IH 181 in 9.2. That's what it's Top 10 Bronze List means; that's the parameters of the "value" discussion. And on that score, it's the Cerebus.

 

Every time.

 

9.2 is a statistical dead heat. Cerebus #1 has commanded sales greater than the 181's 90 DMA (day moving average), but 181 has had a recent sale in 9.2 higher than Cerebus #1 has in any grade south of 9.4. It would probably come down to venue. 181 might win a battle of the 9.2's on ebay, Cerebus #1 may win on Link, HA or Metro.

Unless they show up in 9.2 and identical pq somewhere, we are probably beating a dead horse. Even OPG has flip flopped on this over the last 13 months. It is that close.

Next year OPG may move 181 ahead once again, and I have little doubt Marvel Preview 7 will knock out the DC 100 Page 5 once and for all.

[RockMyAmadeus]

The more interesting "what if" dealer choice would be if the purchase price for the dealer was $500 less than market value for both books, then which way do they go?

 

Exactly. If each book was offered for "$500 less than market value," the Cerebus would go for more money. Because, in 9.2 and up, it's worth more (grade for grade) than IH 181.

 

The market value has been established. The current CGC 9.2 value for Cerebus 1 might be theoretical due to lack of recent GPA-verified data, but Overstreet's not wrong to state that Cerebus 1 in 9.2 is worth more than IH 181 in 9.2. That's what it's Top 10 Bronze List means; that's the parameters of the "value" discussion. And on that score, it's the Cerebus.

 

Every time.

 

9.2 is a statistical dead heat. Cerebus #1 has commanded sales greater than the 181's 90 DMA (day moving average), but 181 has had a recent sale in 9.2 higher than Cerebus #1 has in any grade south of 9.4. It would probably come down to venue. 181 might win a battle of the 9.2's on ebay, Cerebus #1 may win on Link, HA or Metro.

 

You have no way of making these claims. There is simply no way to know. There is only a single sale, from 9 years ago.

 

The 9.4 sales, both SS and the single Universal (a clue!), suggest that a 9.2 would sell for more than the 2005 sale, but it's only a suggestion.

[RockMyAmadeus]

but no data was presented

 

This is not true.

 

The data has been posted in this thread multiple times, by both "sides" of the discussion.

 

It's right in front of your eyes.

 

I've done more than enough hand holding and explaining to last a thousand threads; I'm not going to do any more. If you can't see it....that's the end of that.

 

And "downward price trend" is not only not true, it's quite specious.

Perhaps it would be clearer if my summary of the points made by others was quoted in full without edits.

- A downward price trend of "15% for Cerebus 1 over ten year period" was presented by one party with figures - in direct response to a question from the other party; the second party disputed that assessment as wrong but no data was presented nor was any explanation of how the data should be interpreted to rationalize a conclusion that contradicts the simple mathematics used by the first party.

specious - misleading in appearance

 

I can only guess as to why you now refuse to hand-hold, link, quote yourself or simply re-state your reasoning about the ten year thing after posting thousands of words on this topic in general.

 

You do not "play fair" in discussions, so this will be my last response to you. My response was adequately clear, without the need to "quote in full."

 

As far as "only guessing"...again, you fight dirty (see the "backpedal" gif above), which is unfortunate, but any attempt, no matter how reasonable, would be rejected by you, and would be utterly futile.

 

You will draw, as always, any conclusion you wish. Take care.

[HighStakesComics]

The more interesting "what if" dealer choice would be if the purchase price for the dealer was $500 less than market value for both books, then which way do they go?

 

Exactly. If each book was offered for "$500 less than market value," the Cerebus would go for more money. Because, in 9.2 and up, it's worth more (grade for grade) than IH 181.

 

The market value has been established. The current CGC 9.2 value for Cerebus 1 might be theoretical due to lack of recent GPA-verified data, but Overstreet's not wrong to state that Cerebus 1 in 9.2 is worth more than IH 181 in 9.2. That's what it's Top 10 Bronze List means; that's the parameters of the "value" discussion. And on that score, it's the Cerebus.

 

Every time.

 

9.2 is a statistical dead heat. Cerebus #1 has commanded sales greater than the 181's 90 DMA (day moving average), but 181 has had a recent sale in 9.2 higher than Cerebus #1 has in any grade south of 9.4. It would probably come down to venue. 181 might win a battle of the 9.2's on ebay, Cerebus #1 may win on Link, HA or Metro.

 

You have no way of making these claims. There is simply no way to know. There is only a single sale, from 9 years ago.

 

The 9.4 sales, both SS and the single Universal (a clue!), suggest that a 9.2 would sell for more than the 2005 sale, but it's only a suggestion.

 

The highest sale price among all recorded data points for a 181 9.2 took place this month on ebay. That is not a claim, it's a fact. I wonder what a 9.4 would have gone for?

As for the MP #7 destroying the Danielle Steele novel, anyone with $10.95 can witness the 90 DMA crushing the last 9.2 sale, which happened to be a pedigree. All there on gpa.

Once again, not claims.......facts.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

The more interesting "what if" dealer choice would be if the purchase price for the dealer was $500 less than market value for both books, then which way do they go?

 

Exactly. If each book was offered for "$500 less than market value," the Cerebus would go for more money. Because, in 9.2 and up, it's worth more (grade for grade) than IH 181.

 

The market value has been established. The current CGC 9.2 value for Cerebus 1 might be theoretical due to lack of recent GPA-verified data, but Overstreet's not wrong to state that Cerebus 1 in 9.2 is worth more than IH 181 in 9.2. That's what it's Top 10 Bronze List means; that's the parameters of the "value" discussion. And on that score, it's the Cerebus.

 

Every time.

 

9.2 is a statistical dead heat. Cerebus #1 has commanded sales greater than the 181's 90 DMA (day moving average), but 181 has had a recent sale in 9.2 higher than Cerebus #1 has in any grade south of 9.4. It would probably come down to venue. 181 might win a battle of the 9.2's on ebay, Cerebus #1 may win on Link, HA or Metro.

 

You have no way of making these claims. There is simply no way to know. There is only a single sale, from 9 years ago.

 

The 9.4 sales, both SS and the single Universal (a clue!), suggest that a 9.2 would sell for more than the 2005 sale, but it's only a suggestion.

 

The highest sale price among all recorded data points for a 181 9.2 took place this month on ebay. That is not a claim, it's a fact. I wonder what a 9.4 would have gone for?

 

You have misunderstood.

 

I wasn't disputing the sale of the Hulk #181 in 9.2. It cannot be disputed. I am disputing the comparison of the single 9.2 sale of Cerebus #1 from 9 years ago to the AVERAGE value of a Hulk #181 9.2 as essentially unknowable.

 

[Jaydogrules]

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Incredible-Hulk-181-cgc-9-0-Holy-Grail-Comic-WHITE-pages-1st-WOLVERINE-/161396918720?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item25940189c0

 

A rising tide raises all ships. I agree with most of what blazincomics posts but I do not believe a cerebus 1 9.2 would outsell a hulk 181 9.2.

 

I believe this is the first time a 9.0 has broken 2100 even.

 

Meanwhile the pro cerebus 1 side (and Overstreet as well evidently) cleave to one 9 year old file copy SS sale of a cerebus 1 9.2 as justification for why it should be ahead of hulk 181 on the list.

 

Poppycock.

 

As stated earlier, if anything the data suggests that cerebus 1 in its highest grades has LOST value over the last ten years, not gained.

 

Unless the other side has publicly available sales data that says otherwise that they can share they are doing nothing but speculating, hoping, thinking, wishing, and praying as cerebus 1 drifts further into obscurity and irrelevance outside of the indy niche market. There are plenty of copies sitting on ebay month after month, and whenever a seller gives up and just runs an auction to get rid of it, it gets meager results. Sorry, but this book will never be a tmnt 1 status, no matter how much you may want it to be.

 

Meanwhile hulk 181 is having a banner year across ALL grades and unless a seller egregiously overprices they always sell. Heck they even sell when the seller DOES over price them.

 

Hulk 181 SMASH puny aardvark!

 

-J.

[RockMyAmadeus]

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Incredible-Hulk-181-cgc-9-0-Holy-Grail-Comic-WHITE-pages-1st-WOLVERINE-/161396918720?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item25940189c0

 

A rising tide raises all ships. I agree with most of what blazincomics posts but I do not believe a cerebus 1 9.2 would outsell a hulk 181 9.2.

 

I believe this is the first time a 9.0 has broken 2100.

 

Meanwhile the pro cerebus 1 side (and Overstreet as well evidently) cleave to one 9 year old file copy SS sale of a cerebus 1 9.2 as justification for why it should be ahead of hulk 181 on the list.

 

Poppycock.

 

That is correct. What you just typed is poppycock. Neither Overstreet nor anyone who is seeking the truth has "cleaved" to a single sale of Cerebus #1 in 9.2 from 2005. I, myself, stated that very thing the post right above yours.

 

As stated earlier, if anything the data suggests that cerebus 1 in its highest grades has LOST value over the last ten years, not gained.

 

This is not true.

 

Unless the other side has publicly available sales data that says otherwise

 

Such data has already been posted, by you. You don't recognize it.

 

that they can share they are doing nothing but speculating, hoping, thinking, wishing, and praying as cerebus 1 drifts further into obscurity and irrelevance outside of the indy niche market. There are plenty of copies sitting on ebay month after month, and whenever a seller gives up and just runs an auction to get rid of it, it get meager results. Sorry, but this book will never be a tmnt 1 status, no matter how much you may want it to be.

 

Who brought up TMNT #1.........? When did TMNT #1 enter into this discussion? How did TMNT #1 become involved in this?

 

Meanwhile hulk 181 is having a banner year across ALL grades and unless a seller egregiously overprices they always sell. Heck they even sell when the seller DOES over price them.

 

Hulk 181 SMASH puny aardvark!

 

-J.

 

Your post is filled with the typical unreasoning, irrational posturing of a dedicated fan (see the origin of the word "fan"), rather than an honest desire for the truth, wherever it may lie.

 

That's not a problem, except that you do not tell the audience that you are posting as a partisan, and are posing as a sincere seeker of the truth.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

PS...do you own any of the books in your sigline, Jaydog?

 

They're all different scans.

 

 

Just curious.

[Jaydogrules]

Dear Audience,

 

I am a Wolverine fan.

 

Sincerely,

 

Partisan

[RockMyAmadeus]

Dear Audience,

 

I am a Wolverine fan.

 

Sincerely,

 

Partisan

 

Finally!

 

Jaydog says something TRUE!

 

[Jaydogrules]

PS...do you own any of the books in your sigline, Jaydog?

 

They're all different scans.

 

 

Just curious.

 

And yes I do as a matter of fact. And yes they are. I lift the scans from the seller/auction house listing when I purchase them.

 

-J.

[HighStakesComics]

The more interesting "what if" dealer choice would be if the purchase price for the dealer was $500 less than market value for both books, then which way do they go?

 

Exactly. If each book was offered for "$500 less than market value," the Cerebus would go for more money. Because, in 9.2 and up, it's worth more (grade for grade) than IH 181.

 

The market value has been established. The current CGC 9.2 value for Cerebus 1 might be theoretical due to lack of recent GPA-verified data, but Overstreet's not wrong to state that Cerebus 1 in 9.2 is worth more than IH 181 in 9.2. That's what it's Top 10 Bronze List means; that's the parameters of the "value" discussion. And on that score, it's the Cerebus.

 

Every time.

 

9.2 is a statistical dead heat. Cerebus #1 has commanded sales greater than the 181's 90 DMA (day moving average), but 181 has had a recent sale in 9.2 higher than Cerebus #1 has in any grade south of 9.4. It would probably come down to venue. 181 might win a battle of the 9.2's on ebay, Cerebus #1 may win on Link, HA or Metro.

 

You have no way of making these claims. There is simply no way to know. There is only a single sale, from 9 years ago.

 

The 9.4 sales, both SS and the single Universal (a clue!), suggest that a 9.2 would sell for more than the 2005 sale, but it's only a suggestion.

 

The highest sale price among all recorded data points for a 181 9.2 took place this month on ebay. That is not a claim, it's a fact. I wonder what a 9.4 would have gone for?

 

You have misunderstood.

 

I wasn't disputing the sale of the Hulk #181 in 9.2. It cannot be disputed. I am disputing the comparison of the single 9.2 sale of Cerebus #1 from 9 years ago to the AVERAGE value of a Hulk #181 9.2 as essentially unknowable.

 

It sounds like we agree. That's why I called the 9.2's a dead heat. The Cerebus #1 9.2 is the wild card. Not enough data. Since that is the case Id have to side with OPG, but Hulk 181 has stronger recent data, and is without question the bigger book. It's making a pretty good argument. We should probably just revisit this once a copy of the #1 turns over.

 

 

[Prince Namor]

Any national dealer on this board, if given a chance, would buy a Cerebus #1 CGC 9.4 over a Hulk #181 CGC 9.4 - if offered only one or the other - for $500.

 

End of story.

 

Because, thus far, they've seen, they will make MORE MONEY off the book -MEANING that in HIGH GRADE it is more VALUABLE to them.

 

Hence, it's more VALUABLE in HG as reflected in the OSPG, a guide for people who SELL comics.

 

See jaydog, you look at GPA as a novice and a fan would... As what HAS happened. A professional comic book dealer looks at it as what MAY happened, combined with what they HEAR every DAY from people who buy HG books, combined with a decades old knowledge of the marketplace.

 

Real world application vs I fell in love with Wolverine as a boy.

 

You lose.