Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[jimjum12]

Comic stores between 1978 and 1988, it was common that they had Silver Age collections walking in the door once or twice a week. Out of those collections within a years time just say the mega 500 comic stores could of scored 1-3 copies of an AF 15. With a ratio of 75 collections in a year with just 3% containing an AF 15, that would be 2 copies per store. So that would make 500 stores with 2 copies each, or 1,000 copies a year, for a decade, 10,000 copies. You can also add in smaller comic shops, CBG mail order dealers, convention dealers. That gets you through the bulk years of when original owner Silver Collections were recycled into the back issue market. You than have the decade of the 1990's when Silver collections thinned out dramatically. Its not that AF 15 didn't trade, just much less frequent than the previous decade due to the lower volume of original owner Silver Collections coming to market. You also have the 2000 to current where some shops don't see but one or two Silver collections in a years time. So did Silver collections all of a sudden become scarce? No, they just are not for sale in the same ratio as they were from the late 70's through the 80's. So is AF 15 all of a sudden scarce. No, it just does not come up for sale at the same ratio as it did from the late 70's through the 80's. When collectors forked out $50-$300 for a low grade copy the 80's, they absolutely did not throw it away, its still in a bag and board, in box in there collection, not for sale.

 

To add to this: in 1987, the great Silver Age vacuum began. At that time, there began a nationwide buying spree on Silver Age, and of course, high grade keys were sucked out the fastest, but by 1990, most SA above Fi/VF had essentially evaporated from the market, not to return for a decade or more.

 

I entered the comics market in 1989. Throughout the 90's, I didn't believe there were any actual NM copies of 1960's or earlier books in existence, with some exceptions (like the Church collection), simply because I never, ever saw them. What I didn't know was that they were hidden away, and not for sale. The White Mountain AF #15 was one of the very rare exceptions, when it was auctioned in 1993 at Sotheby's by Jerry Wiest, for a hammer of $39,100.

 

In fact, the years from 1987-1994 were, by far, the most significant in the valuation history of AF #15 (among many others.) In that 7 year period, the value of the book increased 10-20 fold, or more, depending on the copy. In 1988, the White Mountain sold for 2.5x OPG (according to Matt Nelson) which, at the time, was $1200 (someone please correct me if I have that wrong; I don't have my 1988 copy handy at the moment.)

 

So, that particular copy sold for $3000, and within 7 years, sold for $39.100, or 13 times its 1988 value. In the ensuing 10 years, the value of that copy only increased 4 times, from $39k to $150k. In fact...when it was sold again less than a year later, it was sold at a loss...$126k.

 

Now, clearly the book is worth substantially more than that at this point, as a non-ped 9.4 sold for $325k in 2011...but the lesson is clear: in the 22 years since 1993, the book STILL has not increased in value at the same rate as it did between 1988, when it was first brought to market, and 1993. For that rate to be mirrored, the book would have to sell for north of $500,000, and the market doesn't support that (?) at this time. Still...it would be 22 years, vs. 7.

 

But back to the SA market in general. With the advent of CGC, there was a wondrous revelation made to me about the fact that ultra high grade copies of these books DID exist, and they always had...they'd just been locked up in inventories and collections until more favorable conditions existed. That was the key to me learning about the realities of the market: that what is for sale at any given time, and what has been slabbed since 2000, is the tip of the tip of the iceberg of what actually exists. The census represents a mere fraction, and a tiny one at that, of what exists, and comparisons to modern "manufactured collectible" variants completely fail.

 

Meanwhile, the lessons of the late 80's in the coin slabbed market taught me much about the census, and its unreliability as an indicator of what actually exists. For example: there are 238,326 1881-S Morgan Dollars slabbed by NGC and on their census. But, because we know that the US Treasury Dept had several thousand bags (at 1,000 coins per bag) in storage in the early 1960's, we know that at least 5 million, and possibly as much as 8-9 million, of the original mintage of 12,760,000 examples still exist, with most being in mint state. This is a coin that was made over 130 years ago, and these numbers were estimated long before slabbing existed.

 

Yet, only 238k examples have been slabbed, and that over 28 years of slabbing, twice as long as CGC has been around! If we were to consider that the census represents a significant amount of extant coins, we might conclude there are only 300-600k examples left, based on the 238k census number.

 

Of course, we know that's not true, and the vast, vast majority remain unslabbed. Comparable to AF #15? No, of course not. It's only used to illustrate the problem with relying on the census for anything but the most broad indications of what exists, and that we must rely on other, more concrete information when coming up with an estimate of extant examples of anything.

 

...Excellent post. CGC is actually a spin off of the NGC coin slabbing brand, so that comparison is a good one. Like with comics, slabbing is popular with the Auction Houses as a means to eliminate returns and verify quality. As with comics, coin slabs are still only a fraction of that hobby, despite it's usage and popularity for almost 30 years now. People still collect raw coins even though the FMV of the slab is much higher. With collectibles, a concern for resale options is often not a priority with many aficionados .... it is simply a love for the particular item or niche. A logical analysis will often fall short of capturing the nature of the dynamic. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

Edited March 10, 2015 by jimjum12

[gregreece]

Interesting debate. Here is information from my perspective. I ran a retail store from 1993-1998 in a not ready for prime time town. We handled several (admittedly low grade) AF 15's over those years (sold them at $250-$500 and thought I was killing it:) ). It was not unusual to see local dealers at local shows have 1-2 copies on their wall. There could could be 8-10 in a room of a rinky dink local hotel show. Happened all of the time. One of the things I remember from those days, and still true many times today, is guys selling their runs would sell me ASM 1-whatever they had, but would not sell the AF15. I easily handled 4X-5X as many ASM 1's as I did AF 15's but not because they weren't out there, their owners simply wouldn't part with them. It was the one book they just couldn't sell. I am in the camp that the book is plentiful in the raw and I think what the younger, more census centric posters may be missing is this book has a unique place in the hearts of collectors. And all of that said, whatever quantity is out there it's clearly not enough to satisfy a seemingly insatiable demand for the book. I picked up a 3.0ish copy last week, the first I've had in any grade in a year! I have also noticed other national dealers inventory diminishing on this book over the last 12-18 months so I don't expect prices to soften any time soon.

[RockMyAmadeus]

In fact, the years from 1987-1994 were, by far, the most significant in the valuation history of AF #15 (among many others.) In that 7 year period, the value of the book increased 10-20 fold, or more, depending on the copy. In 1988, the White Mountain sold for 2.5x OPG (according to Matt Nelson) which, at the time, was $1200 (someone please correct me if I have that wrong; I don't have my 1988 copy handy at the moment.)

 

The oldest Overstreet I have is the 18th edition, 1988-1989. AF15 is listed in Mint for $1500. The market report listed a copy in NM selling for $2,200.

 

 

Thanks! That's the one! I knew it was somewhere in that range. Adjust the "2.5x guide" number to approx. $3750, so the 1993 sale changes to 10 times that price, which still handily beats the 1993-2015 period.

[jimjum12]

In fact, the years from 1987-1994 were, by far, the most significant in the valuation history of AF #15 (among many others.) In that 7 year period, the value of the book increased 10-20 fold, or more, depending on the copy. In 1988, the White Mountain sold for 2.5x OPG (according to Matt Nelson) which, at the time, was $1200 (someone please correct me if I have that wrong; I don't have my 1988 copy handy at the moment.)

 

The oldest Overstreet I have is the 18th edition, 1988-1989. AF15 is listed in Mint for $1500. The market report listed a copy in NM selling for $2,200.

 

 

Thanks! That's the one! I knew it was somewhere in that range. Adjust the "2.5x guide" number to approx. $3750, so the 1993 sale changes to 10 times that price, which still handily beats the 1993-2015 period.

 

....I was working Part Time in a LCS at the time.... and there was a lot of discussion about that book and those auctions. Most of us thought that Auctions were never going to amount to much of the market share.... what with comics requiring a personal inspection. We thought the price was insane and was never going to be more than an outlier. You could still pick up a real decent fixer upper Home for that kind of money. Boy were we wrong. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

Edited March 10, 2015 by jimjum12

[RockMyAmadeus]

In fact, the years from 1987-1994 were, by far, the most significant in the valuation history of AF #15 (among many others.) In that 7 year period, the value of the book increased 10-20 fold, or more, depending on the copy..

 

Quick correction: I neglected the years between 1962 and 1970, in which AF #15 experienced its greatest valuation runup.....from 12 cents in 1962 ro $16 in 1970...a leap of 133 times its initial cover price.

 

 

And then, of course, the 70's were no slouch either. AF #15, along with FF #1, burned bright for 20 years, and was unstoppable until the 1983-1985 Silver Age drawback, which was significant.

[RockMyAmadeus]

In fact, the years from 1987-1994 were, by far, the most significant in the valuation history of AF #15 (among many others.) In that 7 year period, the value of the book increased 10-20 fold, or more, depending on the copy. In 1988, the White Mountain sold for 2.5x OPG (according to Matt Nelson) which, at the time, was $1200 (someone please correct me if I have that wrong; I don't have my 1988 copy handy at the moment.)

 

The oldest Overstreet I have is the 18th edition, 1988-1989. AF15 is listed in Mint for $1500. The market report listed a copy in NM selling for $2,200.

 

 

Thanks! That's the one! I knew it was somewhere in that range. Adjust the "2.5x guide" number to approx. $3750, so the 1993 sale changes to 10 times that price, which still handily beats the 1993-2015 period.

 

....I was working Part Time in a LCS at the time.... and there was a lot of discussion about that book and those auctions. Most of us thought that Auctions were never going to amount to much of the market share.... what with comics requiring a personal inspection. We thought the price was insane and was never going to be more than an outlier. You could still pick up a real decent fixer upper Home for that kind of money. Boy were we wrong. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

The important lesson, here, that the "AF #15 will NEVER go down in value!" crowd is not considering is that there has been a quite significant slowdown in the rate of increase of the value of books like AF #15, FF #1, and others.

 

The same White Mountain FF #1 sold for $27,600 in that 1993 Sotheby's auction, also a record. In 2010, that book sold for $143k, and then in 2012 for $203k (not a bad return)...but then, again, in 2013 for $191k...a loss.

 

So, not only is it not true that AF #15 has never gone down in value (it has, most significantly from 1983-1985, and then again from 1998-2001) as some claim, but it has slowed down, and isn't at all likely to continue the same rate of return that it had from 1962-1999, prior to CGC.

 

Aside from selling "shares" in books like this (and this has been tried for decades, and has generally failed every single time...maybe next time will be different....) there's no way for anyone except the wealthy to afford a high grade copy, and then what? Maybe the White Mountain is worth $400k today. Maybe it's worth $250k. Is it going to be worth 10 times its price by 2025, as it was from 1962 to 1965? Or from 1970 to 1976? Or from 1988 to 1993? It took 22 years for the book to, at least on paper, increase another 10 fold...but that only applies to the WM AF #15, which was a record price at the time. Were other copies a better or worse investment? Maybe, maybe not.

 

Anyhoo, that gets us a bit off track from extant copies, but it is related, and does raise some interesting points. But, then, I could talk about comic book history for hours.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

And, to those who believe that collectors prefer their books, high grade or not, in slabs...that's just not true. A slab represents a barrier to my ability to enjoy the item as it was originally made, whether it's a coin, a card, a comic, a toy, whatever.

 

There is nothing in the collecting experience that compares with being able to hold, in your hands, a fresh, bright, clean, unworn example, exactly as it was made however many decades ago. It's a total thrill. It's a pretty heavenly experience, and something a lot of the "younger" (I'm only 42!) crowd is missing out on, which is a shame.

 

 

[BarryAllen]

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives

 

Relative to what? What eras are we talking about? Comics from the 1930's and 40's? Cards from the 10's and 20's? Books from the 1800's?

 

Because by the 1960's, virtually every baseball card that exists, exists in substantial numbers. You need to go back to the early 40's to find that not true. Most books from the 20th century, especially popular books, are extant in large numbers relative to their initial printings.

 

It's entirely relative to what era you're referring to. Vague generalities don't work.

 

Fair enough. This part of the argument was a loose generalization.

[bluechip]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

+1

 

That's another good point.

 

It seems folks would rather place more weight on the unverifiable and un-quantified than what is readily apparent and documented before them.

 

To each his own I suppose.

 

-J.

 

Probably because that "readily apparent and documented data" has issues of its own. However, even if assume that number is 100% fact, it still only tells you how many slabbed copies are in existence.

I understand wanting to be able to quantify something based on hard data but the numbers on the CGC census can be flawed data.

 

Agreed. Re: <<>>> -- there is so much wrong with that. First it calls it verifiable that a person says on a board that they have a copy, while simultaneously calling it unverifiable that people on the same board say they have seen many copies. And it implies that an anecdotal "verified: compilation of existing copies is somehow verification of the lack of other copies. This is working backward from a desired conclusion and wanting that conclusion to sway the market.

 

[Prince Namor]

As a VERY interesting aside, there has sprung up, since the advent of CGC, a tendency among "new" collectors/buyers/investors/whatevers to view things only within the context of CGC and slabbing. This, naturally, is a grave mistake.

 

And this I think is where the majority of the disconnect comes in.

 

CGC is such a small niche of the collector market, and a REALLY small niche of the OLD collector market. Old collectors who are nothing like new collectors - they don't collect to sell or sell to collect - they straight out collect and hoard.

 

But back to the SA market in general. With the advent of CGC, there was a wondrous revelation made to me about the fact that ultra high grade copies of these books DID exist, and they always had...they'd just been locked up in inventories and collections until more favorable conditions existed. That was the key to me learning about the realities of the market: that what is for sale at any given time, and what has been slabbed since 2000, is the tip of the tip of the iceberg of what actually exists. The census represents a mere fraction, and a tiny one at that, of what exists, and comparisons to modern "manufactured collectible" variants completely fail.

 

And that's what these new guys don't understand. HERE, all they see is buy and flip, buy and flip - MAYBE, buy a cool book and hold it for a year, NOW flip - it's ALL SHORT TERM.

 

There are so many old school collectors out there that have NOTHING to do with CGC or want anything to do with CGC, or social media, or large shows, that it'll be some time until we know for sure the number of AF15's out there.

 

I would think the CGC Census tells us very, very little about what is out there raw, especially the older a book gets. There's a much, much, much larger segment of the old school comic collecting population that DESPISES CGC than there are people who subscribes to it.

 

But for anyone who's been collecting for a longer period of time, we've seen these people, talked to these people, seen their collections - we sell to them - I have a guy who buys fn/vf to nm early Conan's and Silver Surfers from me when I get them - he's got multiple copies of each (including 20 of #1)... never slabbed a book, doesn't sell his comics, just not interested in it for that... yet there are all of those books... (Only one AF15 though)

 

Those people are out there... and some we've never met.... Heck, NOBODY knew Edgar Church had a collection....

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Those people are out there... and some we've never met.... Heck, NOBODY knew Edgar Church had a collection....

 

Except his kids, who wanted to throw them out.

 

[Dick Pontoon]

[

 

Sure, but now you are saying that people who own stabbed copies are much more predisposed to do so? Why would you think that?

 

At some point constantly refuting any and all data is becoming excessive.

 

This is a club, a selection of collectors and the vast majority of books in the club are slabbed. If raw books were the vast majority, the numbers should at least be close even if people with slabs are predisposed to sharing in the internet.

 

A sample of data representing be population has to be relevant at somepoint.

 

First of all, you have to accept that these boards do not represent any kind of majority in the collecting world. Then you have to accept that there are people on here, who own books that are listed in the "clubs" who don't chose to post them.

 

 

Like me.

 

And they're all raw to boot.

[Jaydogrules]

Just checked the census and there are 2317 copies (blue, yellow, purple) listed.

 

I'm in the camp that believes there are many (as in 1,000s) of raw copies out there. The only relevant data I know of is the print run, which was I think at least 150,000 copies. It was a book that was instantly popular. I bought a copy off the stands and remember how impressive it looked compared with other books out that month.

 

It appeared before, but not long before, collecting really got rolling in an organized way but clearly not before a lot of people, like me, held on to books indefinitely, rather than reading them and throwing them away. Marvel collecting of that sort was already underway and Marvel collecting of the more organized sort, with mail-order dealers to support it, was underway in a couple of years at which time in addition to copies available from dealers there were many copies around in used bookstores or hobby stores that catered to comic readers/collectors.

 

I find it very unlikely given that background that fewer than 10% of the copies printed survived. I'm sure there were at least 15,000 Marvel collectors around in the early 1960s. Heck I knew dozens, most of whom had a copy (or more) of AF 15.

 

Keeping with the theme of conjecture:

 

There are lots of things made from all eras that were popular with a less than 10% survival rate. Cards, toys, books, etc - very little survives (Americans are kinda wasteful). Particularly when we are talking about something that kids were responsible for the care of. They may have loved that book, but most kids are notoriously bad at keeping things and even worse at keeping them in good condition. We are talking about a time before prevelant bags, boards and known storage. They would have read, reread, spilled on and eventually lost many many copies to mothers and fathers ambivalent of the value (monetary or otherwise).

 

 

 

Anyway, different line of thinking: if this data is true it leads me to believe that the overwhelming majority are not interested in selling. While I can believe it is a coveted book, it is hard to believe so many people couldn't or wouldn't want to capitalize on a minimum of a $4,000ish payday... Ignoring the absolute number of be census, why wouldn't it's numbers grow each year at least closer to the price increase growth curve? The more it became expensive, the higher likelihood that people would start to sell right?

 

Again, this is definitely conjecture, but if greater than 90% of owners are pure collectors not interested in selling (to buy more books, to buy a car, to pay for kids/grandkids college, to take a trip of a lifetime, etc) - shouldn't more people on here own a copy? This is a very focused group with many experienced collectors that lived through all of this and experienced it all first hand. Wouldn't a lot own a copy? Maybe they do and aren't sharing, but That seems like a high number.

 

It's all relative. Old time collectors are just that...collectors. Most have what they need. What doesn't work in this equation is applying ones own standards (ie you would sell for a 4k profit) to those that have.

 

Today's cgc collecting era is surprisingly diff from the last collecting era.

 

In the next 5-10 years I believe many of these collection will be sold/liquidated and then, and unfortunately not till then, will we get a better feel for extant copies.

 

I get it, difficult to speculate to people's motivations.

 

What about this point then:

 

Shouldn't the AF 15 club show the raw list outpace the slabbed list by far and away?

 

I get it, this is sponsored by the CGC. But isnt this place first and foremost a "Collector's" society right?

 

+1

 

That's another good point.

 

It seems folks would rather place more weight on the unverifiable and un-quantified than what is readily apparent and documented before them.

 

To each his own I suppose.

 

-J.

 

Probably because that "readily apparent and documented data" has issues of its own. However, even if assume that number is 100% fact, it still only tells you how many slabbed copies are in existence.

I understand wanting to be able to quantify something based on hard data but the numbers on the CGC census can be flawed data.

 

Agreed. Re: <<>>> -- there is so much wrong with that. First it calls it verifiable that a person says on a board that they have a copy, while simultaneously calling it unverifiable that people on the same board say they have seen many copies. And it implies that an anecdotal "verified: compilation of existing copies is somehow verification of the lack of other copies. This is working backward from a desired conclusion and wanting that conclusion to sway the market.

 

"Verifiable and Quantifiable":

1) CGC census

2) GPA

3) Comic Link, Heritage, etc auction results/listings

4) Ebay Listings

5) Reputable Dealer Reports

 

"Unverifiable and Anecdotal":

1) "I know a guy who knows a guy...."

2) "I heard of a guy who saw a guy...."

3) "I once saw an LCS with 10 copies for sale 30 years ago..."

4) "I have seen 50 copies for sale at a convention 20 years ago..."

 

I give 99% of weight to the former and 1% to the latter. I go by and extrapolate from what I can see and verify for myself. We live in the information age where the necessary data is readily available to the masses. Too many people are attempting to disregard/ignore hard data in favor of hearsay and assumptions. They call the data "incomplete", yet it is certainly more complete than the naked conjecture that they are attempting to rely on. And yes, we do have enough hard data to derive a statistical extrapolation, whether some people believe so or not. My 2 cents.

 

-J.

 

[jimjum12]

I find it oddly convenient that the data sources used to support your claims of most copies being already slabbed come from sites that deal almost exclusively in slabs ? Personally I think I'll trust what I've experienced with my own eyes and the experiences of others whose word I also trust. If you insist on remaining misguided, that's your decision. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Gotham Kid]

"Verifiable and Quantifiable":

5) Reputable Dealer Reports

 

You have at least one. Telling you you're wrong and that there are at least 10k copies or more out there.

[Gotham Kid]

Come to think of it, it seems you're the only one holding that position while most everyone else is argumenting otherwise. Guess they're all wrong ...

[Prince Namor]

You're essentially calling the experts on this board 'liars', some of which have been selling comics or collecting comics for decades longer than a lot of people on this forum.

 

Believe what you like, but as students of comics history, it's frustrating to some of us to watch newer collectors make the same mistakes over and over.

[Jaydogrules]

"Verifiable and Quantifiable":

5) Reputable Dealer Reports

 

You have at least one. Telling you you're wrong and that there are at least 10k copies or more out there.

 

And there have been at least two dealers who have disagreed with that estimate as well. (thumbs u

 

-J.

[Rip]

The census isn't completely wrong or useless. For example it tells us there are less Hulk 1's than AF15, or that X-Men 1 is a more common book.

 

But after going to a lot of conventions over the last 30+ years, plus talking and trading with friends, you get an idea of what's out there. I trust that experience and the experience of other long time collectors and dealers. I haven't seen too many shocking things come out of the census other than maybe there's a lot more of almost everything out there than I thought. Especially post 1956.

[Jaydogrules]

You're essentially calling the experts on this board 'liars', some of which have been selling comics or collecting comics for decades longer than a lot of people on this forum.

 

Believe what you like, but as students of comics history, it's frustrating to some of us to watch newer collectors make the same mistakes over and over.

 

Who's calling anybody a "liar"? People have offered their "opinions". No one posting here, dealer or otherwise, has seen "all raw copies" first hand. So no one can post with absolute omniscience.

 

I choose to extrapolate from the hard data that is available with an eye towards what some reputable dealers have stated as well. There is some disagreement in the estimates among them so that brings me back to the hard publicly available data. There is more than enough out there to make reasonable extrapolations. Others may choose to extrapolate differently. That's the beauty of opinions- everybody is free to have one. Mine is based primarily on what I see and can see based on records extending back 15 years.

 

-J.