Jessica Jones Netflix Alias #1 0

[CBT]

I see and still no predictions.

 

Is this another Jaydog thread?

 

If you mean Alias, I clearly laid out my predictions for Alias, both short term, and mid-to-long term. I expressed them as ratios to another book, and said why it was a legit comparison.

 

If you are talking about Chew still, that's a 2012/2013 prediction, mostly in the Chew thread, and I think the number value I put to it was in PM with you, both the thread prediction and the PM prediction were right either way...

[N/A]

I see and still no predictions.

 

Is this another Jaydog thread?

 

If you mean Alias, I clearly laid out my predictions for Alias, both short term, and mid-to-long term. I expressed them as ratios to another book, and said why it was a legit comparison.

 

If you are talking about Chew still, that's a 2012/2013 prediction, mostly in the Chew thread, and I think the number value I put to it was in PM with you, both the thread prediction and the PM prediction were right either way...

 

 

Yeah, ok. So you can't answer the simple question of whether you think Alias 1 has peaked?

[CBT]

Yeah, ok. So you can't answer the simple question of whether you think Alias 1 has peaked?

 

I did already...

 

I guess you don't think we've hit the peak?

 

For Alias #1? No. I think the book has been speculated on for almost half a decade. I bought my first copies on TV rumors in 2011. Speculators have had years to buy up copies, the book has been concentrated in "weak hands" (those looking to sell) for a long long time.

 

As far as print runs go, its not small, but its not large. I strongly believe (and have argued before), that NYX #3 is the closest analogue to Alias #1. Similar print runs, era of printing, with strong female leads.

 

NYX #3 derived its value from collectors more than speculators. Alias #1 is in the process of moving from the latter to the former. I think they should be of similar value, with Alias #1 moving to slightly stronger over time.

 

Jessica Jones is now, and will be for generations to come, a mainstream Marvel character. She is not going anywhere, and people who think her book will be akin to any sort of Image type rise and fall TV book are wrong, very wrong.

 

 

All that being said, short term whether the price keeps rising, or has peaked, depends on how many books the speculators dump on the market. Hence, my comment about supply vs demand. I said the supply is not small, (speculators hoarding for several years), but neither is the demand (permanently main-streamed female superhero touching on very serious subjects). Which one wins over the next few months is anybody's guess.

 

Long term, until Alias #1 matches or exceeds NYX #3 in price, I dont think it has peaked.

 

But, that being said, I also believe no one should be paying $300-$500 for modern books, the entire comic market is a giant bubble, slabbed (CGC or otherwise) books are a giant bubble, modern comics are a giant bubble, tv/movie optioned books are a giant bubble, etc.

 

Pricing is relative which I why I answered without a numerical value for a peak. If the whole market corrects, my view remains unchanged. Alias #1 is an analogue to NYX #3, it is now a true modern key, and should match or exceed NYX #3's value to be considered at its peak imo.

 

 

and while I am not going to go through 3 years of Chew Thread, here was the culmination of that one from our PM:

02/21/13 01:19 PM

sounds good

 

I tell you what. If Chew is worth more a year from now without a new show announcement, I'll wear a sig blasting myself for being wrong

Edited November 26, 2015 by CBT

[Jackhartmann]

Alias #1 CGC 9.8 20 bids $285 w a day to go

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/ALIAS-1-CGC-9-8-NM-M-1ST-JESSICA-JONES-1ST-MARVEL-MAX-TITLE-BENDIS-NETFLIX-/121820435683?hash=item1c5d1054e3:g:r2gAAOSwys5WT-BE

[the authority]

Predictions on final bid ? I'll go $369. People get excited on hot commodity auctions. I love the wars.

[N/A]

Yeah, ok. So you can't answer the simple question of whether you think Alias 1 has peaked?

 

I did already...

 

I guess you don't think we've hit the peak?

 

For Alias #1? No. I think the book has been speculated on for almost half a decade. I bought my first copies on TV rumors in 2011. Speculators have had years to buy up copies, the book has been concentrated in "weak hands" (those looking to sell) for a long long time.

 

As far as print runs go, its not small, but its not large. I strongly believe (and have argued before), that NYX #3 is the closest analogue to Alias #1. Similar print runs, era of printing, with strong female leads.

 

NYX #3 derived its value from collectors more than speculators. Alias #1 is in the process of moving from the latter to the former. I think they should be of similar value, with Alias #1 moving to slightly stronger over time.

 

Jessica Jones is now, and will be for generations to come, a mainstream Marvel character. She is not going anywhere, and people who think her book will be akin to any sort of Image type rise and fall TV book are wrong, very wrong.

 

 

All that being said, short term whether the price keeps rising, or has peaked, depends on how many books the speculators dump on the market. Hence, my comment about supply vs demand. I said the supply is not small, (speculators hoarding for several years), but neither is the demand (permanently main-streamed female superhero touching on very serious subjects). Which one wins over the next few months is anybody's guess.

 

Long term, until Alias #1 matches or exceeds NYX #3 in price, I dont think it has peaked.

 

But, that being said, I also believe no one should be paying $300-$500 for modern books, the entire comic market is a giant bubble, slabbed (CGC or otherwise) books are a giant bubble, modern comics are a giant bubble, tv/movie optioned books are a giant bubble, etc.

 

Pricing is relative which I why I answered without a numerical value for a peak. If the whole market corrects, my view remains unchanged. Alias #1 is an analogue to NYX #3, it is now a true modern key, and should match or exceed NYX #3's value to be considered at its peak imo.

 

 

and while I am not going to go through 3 years of Chew Thread, here was the culmination of that one from our PM:

02/21/13 01:19 PM

sounds good

 

I tell you what. If Chew is worth more a year from now without a new show announcement, I'll wear a sig blasting myself for being wrong

 

Got it. Alias hasn't peaked. Chew won't increase without a show. Seems the latter could apply to most comics but even a safe prediction is a prediction.

[N/A]

Predictions on final bid ? I'll go $369. People get excited on hot commodity auctions. I love the wars.

 

I'll guess $307.

[Jking3437]

I wish I would have seen that 9.9 , I would have bought it

[Jackhartmann]

Predictions on final bid ? I'll go $369. People get excited on hot commodity auctions. I love the wars.

 

$321 is my thought.

[ZaCrew]

I sold one bin at $355. The demand is there for them to sell at that price.

[Guardian Comics]

Gotcha. Why would this book be different than any others that have gone through this.

 

I already explained that it is not like any other book, and no other book has "gone through this". But, if you have one in mind that you feel qualifies, feel free to name it and I will answer how I think it is different from the book you name.

 

Daredevil 1

ASM 300

ASM 121

ASM 122

1st Starlord

Guardians of the Galaxy 1

Soon to be BA 12

WD 7,10,19,27,53,61

Rocket Raccoon 1

 

 

Just off the top of my head.

 

You failed to meet the bolded criteria with any of your listed book.

 

Right off the top, none of them share the "time they were printed, similar print run size". So right away, all invalid comparisons. But, even being generous, only DD1, 1st Starlord and BA12 are first appearances of significant characters headlining a media product.

 

DD1 is a silver age key (has not peaked btw), and is as much under pressure from other overvalued silver age keys (IH1,AF15) as it is from being a Netflix show. Furthermore, Daredevil was already a mainstream character (was before the affleck movie too).

 

BA12 print run makes it very different as well. In addition, Harley like Daredevil was already a collector's targeted book with a strong following, before her central role in a Suicide squad movie. BA12's print run and ease of acquiring in 9.8 is completely different than Alias 1.

 

1st Starlord might be the only listed book so far, with a leg to stand on as a valid comparison. While the comic age, format (magazine), and print run all are invalid comparisons...you do have a character no one cared about before, suddenly becoming a mainstream character. There are issues with the "version" of the character in that book vs the movie, but for the most part this is your best example. Where you go way off base, is trying to equate its price path to Alias #1. To attack my NYX #3 comments, you would have to compare 1st Starlord's price rise, peak, and settling, to a similar era, magazine format, collector established character's 1st appearance. - - Don't think there is such a thing, so again, no grounds.

 

 

NYX #3, by virtue of its similar printing date and print run (to Alias #1), and it's being the first appearance of a similar character (strong female anti-hero), establishes what the market/collectors will pay for said type of book.

 

Alias #1 is the first appearance of a character, previously ignored, who has now become a permanent mainstream character. Long term, my opinion, is that it will settle at par or slightly above NYX #3 in terms of price (regardless of how the market moves as a whole)

 

People that try to equate it to any other flash in the pan tv/movie adaptation book, are getting things wrong on many levels.

 

If you come up with any valid books to compare, do feel free to post them. 1st Star Lord almost made the cut, but failed because its too different to offer any sort of refutation of my points.

 

Cheers

 

 

Wow. You wasted quite a bit of time.

 

Does CBT does not stand for Comic Book Trends? If it does you are missing the trend completely.

 

EVERY SINGLE BOOK THAT HAS EVER HAD A MOVIE HAS SEEN THE PEAK BEFORE RELEASE. If you don't have a reason why this is an exception then you are over-analyzing....as usual.

 

Not totally true...TTA #13 peaked after the movie, more in the fall actually. And in some grades the last sale is stronger than what the summer of 2014's sales were.

 

Jim

[Guardian Comics]

Found another one....Cap #117 first Falcon. Pretty much across the board all 2015's GPA highs are stronger than 2014's which was the year Winter Soldier came out.

 

Jim

[drotto]

I do not think that the Alias vs NYX 3 comparison is that accurate. NYX has risen steadily with no real rumor of a TV or Movie attached. It has been far more gradual and steady as the character has grown in importance in the comic universe. Alias 1 did not really start to rise until the initial TV rumors back in 2011 and really started to pop once Netflix confirmed the series.

 

Now that does not mean I think either book is going to crash. Alias should have a little more growth in my opinion, but Marvel needs to continue to use the character. Jessica is still a c list character in the comic universe, while Laura is now being promoted as an A list comic universe character. Now if Laura ever gets rumored for a screen, NYX 3 could go absolutely nuts, so I still think that book has more room for future growth.

[N/A]

Gotcha. Why would this book be different than any others that have gone through this.

 

I already explained that it is not like any other book, and no other book has "gone through this". But, if you have one in mind that you feel qualifies, feel free to name it and I will answer how I think it is different from the book you name.

 

Daredevil 1

ASM 300

ASM 121

ASM 122

1st Starlord

Guardians of the Galaxy 1

Soon to be BA 12

WD 7,10,19,27,53,61

Rocket Raccoon 1

 

 

Just off the top of my head.

 

You failed to meet the bolded criteria with any of your listed book.

 

Right off the top, none of them share the "time they were printed, similar print run size". So right away, all invalid comparisons. But, even being generous, only DD1, 1st Starlord and BA12 are first appearances of significant characters headlining a media product.

 

DD1 is a silver age key (has not peaked btw), and is as much under pressure from other overvalued silver age keys (IH1,AF15) as it is from being a Netflix show. Furthermore, Daredevil was already a mainstream character (was before the affleck movie too).

 

BA12 print run makes it very different as well. In addition, Harley like Daredevil was already a collector's targeted book with a strong following, before her central role in a Suicide squad movie. BA12's print run and ease of acquiring in 9.8 is completely different than Alias 1.

 

1st Starlord might be the only listed book so far, with a leg to stand on as a valid comparison. While the comic age, format (magazine), and print run all are invalid comparisons...you do have a character no one cared about before, suddenly becoming a mainstream character. There are issues with the "version" of the character in that book vs the movie, but for the most part this is your best example. Where you go way off base, is trying to equate its price path to Alias #1. To attack my NYX #3 comments, you would have to compare 1st Starlord's price rise, peak, and settling, to a similar era, magazine format, collector established character's 1st appearance. - - Don't think there is such a thing, so again, no grounds.

 

 

NYX #3, by virtue of its similar printing date and print run (to Alias #1), and it's being the first appearance of a similar character (strong female anti-hero), establishes what the market/collectors will pay for said type of book.

 

Alias #1 is the first appearance of a character, previously ignored, who has now become a permanent mainstream character. Long term, my opinion, is that it will settle at par or slightly above NYX #3 in terms of price (regardless of how the market moves as a whole)

 

People that try to equate it to any other flash in the pan tv/movie adaptation book, are getting things wrong on many levels.

 

If you come up with any valid books to compare, do feel free to post them. 1st Star Lord almost made the cut, but failed because its too different to offer any sort of refutation of my points.

 

Cheers

 

 

Wow. You wasted quite a bit of time.

 

Does CBT does not stand for Comic Book Trends? If it does you are missing the trend completely.

 

EVERY SINGLE BOOK THAT HAS EVER HAD A MOVIE HAS SEEN THE PEAK BEFORE RELEASE. If you don't have a reason why this is an exception then you are over-analyzing....as usual.

 

Not totally true...TTA #13 peaked after the movie, more in the fall actually. And in some grades the last sale is stronger than what the summer of 2014's sales were.

 

Jim

 

I don't live in the world of one-offs. 2 single sales that are "higher" but really only one sale with any significant increase. Even that sale does noe compare to the gains prior to 2014. Are you really going to consider one sale as an exception to the rule when the one sale was within 10% of the average? Bit of a stretch.

[N/A]

Found another one....Cap #117 first Falcon. Pretty much across the board all 2015's GPA highs are stronger than 2014's which was the year Winter Soldier came out.

 

Jim

 

GPA disagrees with this statement. Any other examples?

Edited November 27, 2015 by Junk Donkey

[N/A]

I do not think that the Alias vs NYX 3 comparison is that accurate. NYX has risen steadily with no real rumor of a TV or Movie attached. It has been far more gradual and steady as the character has grown in importance in the comic universe. Alias 1 did not really start to rise until the initial TV rumors back in 2011 and really started to pop once Netflix confirmed the series.

 

Now that does not mean I think either book is going to crash. Alias should have a little more growth in my opinion, but Marvel needs to continue to use the character. Jessica is still a c list character in the comic universe, while Laura is now being promoted as an A list comic universe character. Now if Laura ever gets rumored for a screen, NYX 3 could go absolutely nuts, so I still think that book has more room for future growth.

 

JJ compares to NYX 3 for the reasons CBT listed but are hardly relevant in a discussion of the secondary market. I agree that until the entire market crashes you should not see a crash in either book but JJ has essentially peaked just like every other book once the show is released. If this is an exception then I am curious as to why.

[fastballspecial]

Growing up the main villain in this series was the lamest villain I knew. I hated seeing him in a book that I was reading because I knew it was going to suck.

 

After reading Alias I was a little more inclined to like him.

 

After watching the 1st episode I am now a fan. That was a great 1st episode.

[drotto]

Growing up the main villain in this series was the lamest villain I knew. I hated seeing him in a book that I was reading because I knew it was going to suck.

 

After reading Alias I was a little more inclined to like him.

 

After watching the 1st episode I am now a fan. That was a great 1st episode.

 

Sometimes characters work better in one medium than another. Granted it is usually they work in books or comics and suck on the screen, this one just goes the other way.

[divad]

Gotcha. Why would this book be different than any others that have gone through this.

 

I already explained that it is not like any other book, and no other book has "gone through this". But, if you have one in mind that you feel qualifies, feel free to name it and I will answer how I think it is different from the book you name.

 

Daredevil 1

ASM 300

ASM 121

ASM 122

1st Starlord

Guardians of the Galaxy 1

Soon to be BA 12

WD 7,10,19,27,53,61

Rocket Raccoon 1

 

 

Just off the top of my head.

 

You failed to meet the bolded criteria with any of your listed book.

 

Right off the top, none of them share the "time they were printed, similar print run size". So right away, all invalid comparisons. But, even being generous, only DD1, 1st Starlord and BA12 are first appearances of significant characters headlining a media product.

 

DD1 is a silver age key (has not peaked btw), and is as much under pressure from other overvalued silver age keys (IH1,AF15) as it is from being a Netflix show. Furthermore, Daredevil was already a mainstream character (was before the affleck movie too).

 

BA12 print run makes it very different as well. In addition, Harley like Daredevil was already a collector's targeted book with a strong following, before her central role in a Suicide squad movie. BA12's print run and ease of acquiring in 9.8 is completely different than Alias 1.

 

1st Starlord might be the only listed book so far, with a leg to stand on as a valid comparison. While the comic age, format (magazine), and print run all are invalid comparisons...you do have a character no one cared about before, suddenly becoming a mainstream character. There are issues with the "version" of the character in that book vs the movie, but for the most part this is your best example. Where you go way off base, is trying to equate its price path to Alias #1. To attack my NYX #3 comments, you would have to compare 1st Starlord's price rise, peak, and settling, to a similar era, magazine format, collector established character's 1st appearance. - - Don't think there is such a thing, so again, no grounds.

 

 

NYX #3, by virtue of its similar printing date and print run (to Alias #1), and it's being the first appearance of a similar character (strong female anti-hero), establishes what the market/collectors will pay for said type of book.

 

Alias #1 is the first appearance of a character, previously ignored, who has now become a permanent mainstream character. Long term, my opinion, is that it will settle at par or slightly above NYX #3 in terms of price (regardless of how the market moves as a whole)

 

People that try to equate it to any other flash in the pan tv/movie adaptation book, are getting things wrong on many levels.

 

If you come up with any valid books to compare, do feel free to post them. 1st Star Lord almost made the cut, but failed because its too different to offer any sort of refutation of my points.

 

Cheers

 

 

Wow. You wasted quite a bit of time.

 

Does CBT does not stand for Comic Book Trends? If it does you are missing the trend completely.

 

EVERY SINGLE BOOK THAT HAS EVER HAD A MOVIE HAS SEEN THE PEAK BEFORE RELEASE. If you don't have a reason why this is an exception then you are over-analyzing....as usual.

 

Not totally true...TTA #13 peaked after the movie, more in the fall actually. And in some grades the last sale is stronger than what the summer of 2014's sales were.

 

Jim

 

I don't live in the world of one-offs. 2 single sales that are "higher" but really only one sale with any significant increase. Even that sale does noe compare to the gains prior to 2014. Are you really going to consider one sale as an exception to the rule when the one sale was within 10% of the average? Bit of a stretch.

 

So much mental masturbation!

[Guardian Comics]

Found another one....Cap #117 first Falcon. Pretty much across the board all 2015's GPA highs are stronger than 2014's which was the year Winter Soldier came out.

 

Jim

 

GPA disagrees with this statement. Any other examples?

 

What the Halifax are you talking about?

 

2015 GPA high 2014 GPA High

 

9.6. $3200. $2313

9.4. 1355. $1332

9.2. 825. $656

9.0. 567. $430

8.5. 530. $450

8.0. 450. $355

 

Jim