The Scarcity Index Numbers 7 thru 9 0

[N e r V]

Using the old Gerber Scarcity Index terms what are some of the books out there that actually might earn a 7, 8 or 9?

 

7 (Scarce) 21-50 copies

8 (Rare) 11-20 copies

9 (Very Rare) 6-10 copies

 

Any candidates for one of those numbers?

[Sqeggs]

Using the old Gerber Scarcity Index terms what are some of the books out there that actually might earn a 7, 8 or 9?

 

7 (Scarce) 21-50 copies

8 (Rare) 11-20 copies

9 (Very Rare) 6-10 copies

 

Any candidates for one of those numbers?

 

Michelle Nolan did a series of articles on this topic Link to first of Nolan's articles.

 

Her verdict was, as I remember, was that Gerber wasn't too far off, which is remarkable considering how much more info we have these days.

[Straw-Man]

my chief focus, hero timelys, have no books that fit any of those levels, i don't believe [i don't consider the "annuals" to be timelys]. but my next most fervent interest is fox-thru-7/40; a couple of those 50 or so books are looking really rare as i try to upgrade. i'm leaning toward weird 2 being the rarest, and feel like it would make one of the levels we're talking about. maybe wonder comics 2, as well, tho' there are twice as many of the latter on the census [6-3].

[Cat-Man_America]

Using the old Gerber Scarcity Index terms what are some of the books out there that actually might earn a 7, 8 or 9?

 

7 (Scarce) 21-50 copies

8 (Rare) 11-20 copies

9 (Very Rare) 6-10 copies

 

Any candidates for one of those numbers?

 

Michelle Nolan did a series of articles on this topic Link to first of Nolan's articles.

 

Her verdict was, as I remember, was that Gerber wasn't too far off, which is remarkable considering how much more info we have these days.

 

I'd never argue with Michele's numbers because of her lengthy and ongoing experience in the hobby, but I'm more skeptical of the Gerber scarcity index given information I've gleaned over the years about how Ernie arrived at some of those numbers.

 

While it's easy to speculate about the availability of books according to a list put together nearly thirty years ago in preparation for a magnificent Journal that stands as one of the high watermarks of our hobby, the actual real world numbers don't always align with the established scarcity index.

 

A more modern system needs to be devised, perhaps in conjunction with the ever evolving pedigree book that Matt Nelson promises to publish. Certainly this will also be a landmark book in our hobby if and when it reaches fruition.

 

Less I digress to far from the original query, what needs to happen is a comprehensive database of known and theoretical copies of GA comics should be developed based on existing criteria such as census data (with fudge factors worked in to cover resubmissions, grade bumps, missing labels, etc.) and the combined expertise of long time collectors and well established dealers in the community familiar with those books which have slipped through the cracks. My

 

 

[Sqeggs]

Using the old Gerber Scarcity Index terms what are some of the books out there that actually might earn a 7, 8 or 9?

 

7 (Scarce) 21-50 copies

8 (Rare) 11-20 copies

9 (Very Rare) 6-10 copies

 

Any candidates for one of those numbers?

 

Michelle Nolan did a series of articles on this topic Link to first of Nolan's articles.

 

Her verdict was, as I remember, was that Gerber wasn't too far off, which is remarkable considering how much more info we have these days.

 

I'd never argue with Michele's numbers because of her lengthy and ongoing experience in the hobby, but I'm more skeptical of the Gerber scarcity index given information I've gleaned over the years about how Ernie arrived at some of those numbers.

 

While it's easy to speculate about the availability of books according to a list put together nearly thirty years ago in preparation for a magnificent Journal that stands as one of the high watermarks oh our hobby, the actual real world numbers don't always align with the established scarcity index.

 

A more modern system needs to be devised, perhaps in conjunction with the ever evolving pedigree book that Matt Nelson promises to publish. Certainly this will also be a landmark book in our hobby if and whe it reaches fruition.

 

Less I digress from the point, what needs to happen is a comprehensive database of known and theoretical copies of GA comics should be developed based on existing criteria such as census data (with fudge factors worked in to cover resubmissions, grade bumps, missing labels, etc.) and the combined expertise of long time collectors and well established dealers in the community familiar with those books which have slipped through the cracks.

 

 

I would sure love to see something like that put together.

 

I should throw in a caveat about Nolan's assessment of the Gerber indexes. It's been a while since I read those articles, so I may not be accurately characterizing her conclusions.

[Straw-Man]

g.a.tor probably could shed some light on the centaurs that would make the list.

[IngelsFan]

I would also love to see a list like that. The only list I have seen that takes a new look at scarcity is the one last year that dealt with pre-hero DC. There have been some large collections absorbed into the market over the years with no list available of what was in them. I can personally attest to one of those, the E. Nelson Bridwell collection, which was sold at the Atlanta Fantasy Fair shortly after Mr. Bridwell passed away. Among other notables such as a compete run of Fiction House titles in high grade, there were such rare books as Master #3, New Comics 2 & 3, and More Fun #9. A lot of these haven't been sold in over 20 years. As far as true 8 or 9's, I would say that Jumbo 2-8 would also qualify. Looking at Heritage's sales info, if you take the Church run that was sold as a lot out of the picture, there are very few. Then you have later scarce anomalies like War Victory #2 & 3, each with only 3 unrestored copies in the census (and a couple of those are pedigreed).

[Sqeggs]

my chief focus, hero timelys, have no books that fit any of those levels, i don't believe [i don't consider the "annuals" to be timelys]. but my next most fervent interest is fox-thru-7/40; a couple of those 50 or so books are looking really rare as i try to upgrade. i'm leaning toward weird 2 being the rarest, and feel like it would make one of the levels we're talking about. maybe wonder comics 2, as well, tho' there are twice as many of the latter on the census [6-3].

 

Think any of the Mystery Men should be on the list. Issue 7 maybe?

 

I think Cap 74 was a miss by Gerber (and Overstreet). I believe it's a lot more common than was once thought.

 

There are some that are sort of "qualified rare." For instance, I don't think All-Negro Comics 1 is all that tough, but finding it with decent pq is a different matter.

[Straw-Man]

my chief focus, hero timelys, have no books that fit any of those levels, i don't believe [i don't consider the "annuals" to be timelys]. but my next most fervent interest is fox-thru-7/40; a couple of those 50 or so books are looking really rare as i try to upgrade. i'm leaning toward weird 2 being the rarest, and feel like it would make one of the levels we're talking about. maybe wonder comics 2, as well, tho' there are twice as many of the latter on the census [6-3].

 

Think any of the Mystery Men should be on the list. Issue 7 maybe?

 

I think Cap 74 was a miss by Gerber (and Overstreet). I believe it's a lot more common than was once thought.

 

There are some that are sort of "qualified rare." For instance, I don't think All-Negro Comics 1 is all that tough, but finding it with decent pq is a different matter.

 

good catch; m men 7 very, very tough. 8 pretty darn tough, too; my upgraded copies are 4.0 and 3.5, respectively.

[adamstrange]

Using the old Gerber Scarcity Index terms what are some of the books out there that actually might earn a 7, 8 or 9?

 

7 (Scarce) 21-50 copies

8 (Rare) 11-20 copies

9 (Very Rare) 6-10 copies

 

Any candidates for one of those numbers?

I would be skeptical of most any list that tried to distinguish books as being a 7 vs 8 vs 9. Most comics are not valuable enough to slab and even when they are (e.g. Action 1) people believe the census is far from complete. Starting a list of books thought to be 50 or less seems possible, but many of the books that should belong on it will be obscure issues from lower demand genres like Romance or Funny Animal.

[Sqeggs]

Using the old Gerber Scarcity Index terms what are some of the books out there that actually might earn a 7, 8 or 9?

 

7 (Scarce) 21-50 copies

8 (Rare) 11-20 copies

9 (Very Rare) 6-10 copies

 

Any candidates for one of those numbers?

I be would skeptical of most any list that tried to distinguish books as being a 7 vs 8 vs 9. Most comics are not valuable enough to slab and even when they are (e.g. Action 1) people believe the census is far from complete. Starting a list of books thought to be 50 or less seems possible, but many of the books that should belong on it will be obscure issues from lower demand genres like Romance or Funny Animal.

 

The Funny Romantic Animals books are particularly tough!

[G.A.tor]

g.a.tor probably could shed some light on the centaurs that would make the list.

My guess is 250 out of the 290+ would be 7-9 easy. With probably several dozen at 9

[Sqeggs]

g.a.tor probably could shed some light on the centaurs that would make the list.

My guess is 250 out of the 290+ would be 7-9 easy. With probably several dozen at 9

 

Of the Amazing Man run, only issue 5 makes it (as an 8). But that's not actually the scarcest issue in the run, is it?

[comicjack]

my chief focus, hero timelys, have no books that fit any of those levels, i don't believe [i don't consider the "annuals" to be timelys]. but my next most fervent interest is fox-thru-7/40; a couple of those 50 or so books are looking really rare as i try to upgrade. i'm leaning toward weird 2 being the rarest, and feel like it would make one of the levels we're talking about. maybe wonder comics 2, as well, tho' there are twice as many of the latter on the census [6-3].

 

I agree Fox books are tough as Centaurs with some of the issues never seen at all.

Gerber was pretty right on with most from what he had seen out in the market.The ones that weren't seen where the collections that don't surface until the collector passes and the family sells it.New books still surface even today which still amazes me.

[buttock]

His numbers are fairly accurate for a few publishers, but there are a handful of publishers (Quality comes to mind) where I don't think he was terribly accurate. MLJ and Ace might be off also, but I don't have the books in front of me at the moment.

[sfcityduck]

6 to 10 issues is an incredibly small number of books. Worth remembering that there is a big difference between "never seen at all" and "never seen on the marketplace" or "never seen in nice shape." I suspect that most newsstand comics of the GA period survive in quantities greater than 10 issues. I just think that they may be "unknown" because they are buried in long time collector's collections that were compiled 30, 40, maybe even 50 years ago (Bangzoom would be a good example).

 

My very uninformed guess is that the rarest U.S. comics, the one that really do only have 10 or fewer surving copies, are those that never made it to a newsstand or were only regionally distributed. Double Action 2, Motion Picture Funnies Weekly, The Nightingale, some of the health or anti-communist giveaways, etc.

 

Obviously, some of the Canadian and foreign comics also fall into this category. But, I'd be surprised if any nationally distributed U.S. newsstand comics really do only have 10 or fewer surviving examples extant today. Of course, the only way to tell is to have an all-seeing crystal ball.

Edited September 17, 2015 by sfcityduck

[N e r V]

I think ashcans or the like would be more inclined to be in the "10" range which is 1 to 5 copies. Although an ashcan can certainly be a higher number I tend to agree that very few distributed comics could be a real "9" with grades in all conditions counted. Certainly not impossible though to be that rare given the hurdles some books had to through to exist today. I think those already cited are the exceptions.

 

 

Would it be fair to say the recently sold Suspense Comics #3 is more likely a "7", not a "9"?

Edited September 17, 2015 by Nerv

[comicjack]

Suspense 3 is not as rare as it was once thought but still not a ton around.Most have been graded because of the rising prices gotten lately.Still a few raw around like mine and a few board members i know of.i would give it a 7.

[G.A.tor]

g.a.tor probably could shed some light on the centaurs that would make the list.

My guess is 250 out of the 290+ would be 7-9 easy. With probably several dozen at 9

 

Of the Amazing Man run, only issue 5 makes it (as an 8). But that's not actually the scarcest issue in the run, is it?

My guess is 5 is a 7 at best. Ive seen dozens of copies over the years

 

26 is a 9

25 is likely a 9, maybe an 8

22 is an 8

24 is an 8

12-21 likely 7s

5-11 likely 7s

[Et-Es-Go]

Suspense 3 is not as rare as it was once thought but still not a ton around.Most have been graded because of the rising prices gotten lately.Still a few raw around like mine and a few board members i know of.i would give it a 7.

 

My perspective is the Suspense #4 is probably more scarce than the #3. You don't see a #5 often either.

 

For Chesler, the Punch #12 is not seen often, but maybe less than 30 copies out there? The Dynamic #8 is rarely seen, so maybe less than 20 of those out there. The Scoop #2 is also not seen to oftern, I would say less than 20 copies of that book as well.

 

Truly scarce in my opinion is Wonder Comics #1 and #2, the issues preceding Wonderworld. Wow What a Magazine, all issues are less than 10 copies I feel.

 

These are all off-beat titles that I have coveted since I began collecting in the 80s', so I am gauging my scores based on my experience.

 

I came back t ammend this post. Another book that I did not know existed until last year was a authentic Blazing Comics #5. You see these things all the time, there are tons of them out there, but almost everyone is some remainder book with the #5 cover. What I am talking about is a true #5 book that contains the last Green Turtle story. Jeez I am such a dork for knowing such things.

Edited September 17, 2015 by Et-Es-Go