Pre-Heat Speculation Thread - Get it before it gets HOT 9 9

[ygogolak]

53 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

New Mutants 1 seems to be a book on the rise and I don't see it going anywhere but up.  It must have had a huge print run but people are starting to see it's potential once the movie comes out.  I buy all the $5 copies I can find since they sell for $15 pretty easily.  I guess this book is more Copper then modern but it's still a good pick.

I thought it was cooling off but I do see some speculation buys for Daredevil 254 this month.  I even saw a couple copies on walls at C2E2 so maybe people already consider it a hot book and not a speculating book.

New Mutants April 13, 2018!

I think the the fact that their true first is in an oversized graphic novel will push people to #1 of the comic series. However, that graphic novel will only continue to rise as well.

[1Cool]

3 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

New Mutants April 13, 2018!

I think the the fact that their true first is in an oversized graphic novel will push people to #1 of the comic series. However, that graphic novel will only continue to rise as well.

  I've got a CGC 9.8 on ice waiting for the explosion.  That black cover makes it a tough book to get above a 9.4.

[rjrjr]

16 hours ago, kevhtx said:

Your quote "A cool cover just doesn't drive value these days."

He is correct.  Cover, perceived rarity, character, and artist.  Not every Dell'Otto is a masterpiece and the readily available Dell'Otto's don't sell for big money.  It also highly depends on the character and usually needs to be a ratio'd variant or an exclusive of some sort.

If Dell'Otto was doing the standard covers for Amazing Spider-Man, would those skyrocket in value?  Of course not, the book would have to have something else going for it.

[ygogolak]

Just now, rjrjr said:

He is correct.  Cover, perceived rarity, character, and artist.  Not every Dell'Otto is a masterpiece and the readily available Dell'Otto's don't sell for big money.  It also highly depends on the character and usually needs to be a ratio'd variant or an exclusive of some sort.

If Dell'Otto was doing the standard covers for Amazing Spider-Man, would those skyrocket in value?  Of course not, the book would have to have something else going for it.

There have already been regular covers identified that hold value from hot artists.

[rjrjr]

2 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

There have already been regular covers identified that hold value from hot artists.

Which ones were regular covers that were being used as examples with Lego?  I must have missed it.

[ygogolak]

5 minutes ago, rjrjr said:

Which ones were regular covers that were being used as examples with Lego?  I must have missed it.

 

[1Cool]

I think it's foolish to think great covers do not drive value on comics.  It did for SS 4 or Batman 251 and it does on modern books also.  In the age of CGC you really only need a great cover to have it be a hit.  Spiderman 606 and 607 is still doing well and Catwoman 51 is only gaining steam.  A great cover has a much better chance of maintaining value compared to a 1st appearance of a no name character people are speculating on that never goes anywhere.  Covers are king in the CGC world.

[SquareChaos]

The part everyone leaves out in these justifications is an attempt to explain why 'great cover' (ignoring that they're not always great) + perceived 'rarity' equals a few years old book worth $5,000.

[rjrjr]

3 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

The part everyone leaves out in these justifications is an attempt to explain why 'great cover' (ignoring that they're not always great) + perceived 'rarity' equals a few years old book worth $5,000.

Those are strictly valued based on rarity, although the artist and character are important.  If you removed rarity, they wouldn't be worth even close to what they are now.

[rjrjr]

17 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

I think it's foolish to think great covers do not drive value on comics.  It did for SS 4 or Batman 251 and it does on modern books also.  In the age of CGC you really only need a great cover to have it be a hit.  Spiderman 606 and 607 is still doing well and Catwoman 51 is only gaining steam.  A great cover has a much better chance of maintaining value compared to a 1st appearance of a no name character people are speculating on that never goes anywhere.  Covers are king in the CGC world.

It isn't just cover alone though.    I think the character (as you mentioned above) has a lot to do with it too.  And the artist.

Edited April 25, 2017 by rjrjr

[SquareChaos]

4 minutes ago, rjrjr said:

Those are strictly valued based on rarity, although the artist and character are important.  If you removed rarity, they wouldn't be worth even close to what they are now.

Well, you are basically saying it is strictly based on rarity, and then saying the artist and character are important as well - that statement conflicts with itself, but I understand what you mean I think.

Personally, I think some of these books are truly rare, but I think others are smoke and mirrors. I've seen too many of the X-23 #1s to consider them truly rare, but they still sometimes sell for $1500+. 

[Broke as a Joke]

I don't believe Del'Otto has a single non incentive/variant cover that is valuable.  Not sure then if he is really this high profile guy like everyone wants him to be.  It is convenient to call him a great artist when you have him doing some ultra rare cover, but his general work nothing stands out.  Seems like more hawking.

[kevhtx]

40 minutes ago, rjrjr said:

He is correct.  Cover, perceived rarity, character, and artist.  Not every Dell'Otto is a masterpiece and the readily available Dell'Otto's don't sell for big money.  It also highly depends on the character and usually needs to be a ratio'd variant or an exclusive of some sort.

If Dell'Otto was doing the standard covers for Amazing Spider-Man, would those skyrocket in value?  Of course not, the book would have to have something else going for it.

When looking at a cover, and buying for a "cool cover", I look at the character as being part of that (if the character is in the art of the cover). I think Adam Hughes covers are probably great examples of covers that are good values for non-ratio variants that the cover drives the price. I collect Hughes books simply for the covers. Many are worth over $100+ in 9.8 condition. Simply put, there are covers that drive sales. But, I agree that most covers that drive sales and increase in value are ratio variants/exclusives. A big reason those are purchased those (personal experience) is because of the covers.

[kevhtx]

36 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

I think it's foolish to think great covers do not drive value on comics.  It did for SS 4 or Batman 251 and it does on modern books also.  In the age of CGC you really only need a great cover to have it be a hit.  Spiderman 606 and 607 is still doing well and Catwoman 51 is only gaining steam.  A great cover has a much better chance of maintaining value compared to a 1st appearance of a no name character people are speculating on that never goes anywhere.  Covers are king in the CGC world.

Perfect example....and Hughes has many other examples as well

[Hekla]

Revival

(yes, that Revival)

[rjrjr]

Just now, SquareChaos said:

Well, you are basically saying it is strictly based on rarity, and then saying the artist and character are important as well - that statement conflicts with itself, but I understand what you mean I think.

Personally, I think some of these books are truly rare, but I think others are smoke and mirrors. I've seen too many of the X-23 #1s to consider them truly rare, but they still sometimes sell for $1500+. 

I personally believe many collectors get talked into wanting a book that they otherwise would not want, based on what others are saying.  When I was younger, in the early 90s, I was buying a ton of hot books that I otherwise had no interest in.  An extreme example is the Death and Return of Superman story arcs but my collection is littered with once hot books that today nobody wants.  My interest was based solely on everyone else wanting those books too, not because of any interest in the characters.  X-23 #1 and some of these other books are very similar IMHO.  The speculation sites post a book and that book becomes an overnight hit.  And many collectors want those books they otherwise could care less about and get caught up in the frenzy.  It is interesting to watch and reminds me of the sports card industry a while back.  If it makes them happy to be part of the pack, that's great.  But many of them are going to look back and realize what a waste of money this whole endeavor will have been IMHO.  They won't realize it however until they go to sell those comics.  Even though that price guide says the book is worth X, they'll soon realize without the heat, trying to sell that book for X is difficult.  And they'll have a bunch of books like this that are worth a ton on paper, but nobody will buy.

I believe there are collectors who buy these books out of genuine love of the characters too.  But I suspect most of those collectors already had those books in their collections and didn't spend the high prices those books are selling for now.  I know this was the case for me with several Star Wars books that have been hot over the years.  Star Wars #42, 68, and 81 come to mind.  And most recently Star Wars #49.

[Broke as a Joke]

As always, boobs and good girl art covers do extremely well in the market.  This has been going on for 70+ years now.  Hughes and Campbell know what they are doing. 

[rjrjr]

3 minutes ago, kevhtx said:

When looking at a cover, and buying for a "cool cover", I look at the character as being part of that (if the character is in the art of the cover). I think Adam Hughes covers are probably great examples of covers that are good values for non-ratio variants that the cover drives the price. I collect Hughes books simply for the covers. Many are worth over $100+ in 9.8 condition. Simply put, there are covers that drive sales. But, I agree that most covers that drive sales and increase in value are ratio variants/exclusives. A big reason those are purchased those (personal experience) is because of the covers.

Isn't rarity coming into play though if the book has to be 9.8 to get the $100+?  Do raw issues go for that much?

[rjrjr]

9 minutes ago, Broke as a Joke said:

I don't believe Del'Otto has a single non incentive/variant cover that is valuable.  Not sure then if he is really this high profile guy like everyone wants him to be.  It is convenient to call him a great artist when you have him doing some ultra rare cover, but his general work nothing stands out.  Seems like more hawking.

The publishers or Dell'Otto knows this, otherwise why not put him on the standard cover and sell more copies, right?  (I am agreeing with you.)

Edited April 25, 2017 by rjrjr

[Couchy81]

3 minutes ago, rjrjr said:

The publishers or Dell'Otto knows this, otherwise why not put him on the standard cover and sell more copies, right?  (I am agreeing with you.)

Captain America Steve Rogers #15 is a brand new regular Dell'Otto and it's sold out and going to 2nd printing. I love the cover and got it for my collection based on the characters and the artist, not the rarity. I'm sure many did as well.