TheUrologist1 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 I had an interesting question I posed to Greg Reece at Megacon a few weeks ago. I want to see boards responses and this looks like a good place to post the question. I have 3 copies of AF15 (2 regular copies and a UK copy) and 0 copies of Showcase 4. Would a grade equivalent/price equivalent trade be wise i.e. my AF15 graded for a showcase 4 of similar appeal. The AF15 I can part with is a solid and presentable US 3.0 and would it be worth trading for a 3.0-3.5 showcase 4? I will tell you his response was two-fold. He sells both fast, but AF a little faster, so from a money perspective they are similar, but acquisitionally, the showcase are harder to come by. So he felt that from where I stand as a collector, the showcase trade would be good for me, but as a dealer it really wouldn't make much of a difference as both are quite liquid. More on topic: I've been on the fence whether or not we are in a bubble. Because you never know if you are in one... until it pops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callaway29 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 In my opinion AF15 is in a textbook bubble. Yes, in a free market price is determined by the correlation between supply and demand. However, demand is being artificially inflated by greed (speculation/flippers), and the "if I don't buy now I'll never be able to" mentality. The sense of urgency to buy, the hype, and the sky rocketing prices, coupled with no REAL change to any of the variables, are all indicators. One of my favorite quotes is from Warren Buffett: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." delekkerste 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hepcat Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 All true. The price increases for Amazing Fantasy 15 have fueled further demand as speculators/investors have extrapolated the past increases on into the future. But here's another truth: "The market can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolviefrk Posted June 6, 2021 Share Posted June 6, 2021 On 6/13/2017 at 8:16 AM, Callaway29 said: In my opinion AF15 is in a textbook bubble. Yes, in a free market price is determined by the correlation between supply and demand. However, demand is being artificially inflated by greed (speculation/flippers), and the "if I don't buy now I'll never be able to" mentality. The sense of urgency to buy, the hype, and the sky rocketing prices, coupled with no REAL change to any of the variables, are all indicators. One of my favorite quotes is from Warren Buffett: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." FOMO is real....but i hear Ultimate fallout 4 is the next AF15 at least on a few Facebook threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callaway29 Posted June 6, 2021 Share Posted June 6, 2021 58 minutes ago, wolviefrk said: FOMO is real....but i hear Ultimate fallout 4 is the next AF15 at least on a few Facebook threads Threadsurrection I believe at the time of posting this AF15 was on a tear, and it did cool. Of course everything is on fire now though… alexgross.com and wolviefrk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krismusic Posted June 6, 2021 Share Posted June 6, 2021 Af15 to the moon RetiredOldMan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Knight Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 If you are not a club member yet, you definitely missed the boat piper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr bla bla Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 10 hours ago, Krismusic said: Af15 to the moon Railway to the moon, baby ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Sweet Lou 14 Posted June 7, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted June 7, 2021 I bought my 5.0 in July of 2017, only a few months after getting back into collecting, having been quiet for about 6 years prior to that. I didn't realize at the time that I was buying at a pretty bad time, and I didn't like seeing the value of my book stay really flat or even slightly down from where I bought it (extremely hard to tell because there was always a way to rationalize that this or that disappointing sale was due to chipping or whatever). But, I've hung on and the investment looks good now. Not nearly as good as the X-Men #1 9.0 I bought around the same time for around the same money, but good. Dark Knight, nmtg9, alexgross.com and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCOComics Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 On 6/13/2017 at 9:16 AM, Callaway29 said: In my opinion AF15 is in a textbook bubble. Yes, in a free market price is determined by the correlation between supply and demand. However, demand is being artificially inflated by greed (speculation/flippers), and the "if I don't buy now I'll never be able to" mentality. The sense of urgency to buy, the hype, and the sky rocketing prices, coupled with no REAL change to any of the variables, are all indicators. One of my favorite quotes is from Warren Buffett: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." It's interesting to look back at this now and I imagine there are lessons we could apply to the current market when thinking about the years to come. It may not have been a "bubble" because it never really burst and prices didn't dip much... But boy did they stay flat for a long time. It was almost baffling to watch other big keys get really hot and gain ground but AF15 stayed sleeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisco37 Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 37 minutes ago, KCOComics said: It's interesting to look back at this now and I imagine there are lessons we could apply to the current market when thinking about the years to come. It may not have been a "bubble" because it never really burst and prices didn't dip much... But boy did they stay flat for a long time. It was almost baffling to watch other big keys get really hot and gain ground but AF15 stayed sleeping. For sure. When the "MCU books" were skyrocketing and AF wasn't matching the acceleration of the others, I always thought it was only a matter of time. I've said for years that, really, it's the #3 book in the hobby (behind AC1 and Tec27). If it had been published the same time as those 2, it would be in their range price wise. KCOComics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Callaway29 Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 I also recall a certain individual pumping AF15 hourly, for months, on these boards so I was kind of annoyed with it at the time. He/she literally ONLY posted about AF15, and every single post was unmitigated to the moon proclamations...and it was rapid fire. He/she monopolized all other discussions. As soon as AF15 cooled he/she disappeared forever...presumably because their pump/dump campaign was over. The primary action was in a different AF15 thread though...the "main" one? I don't recall their username either... When individuals speak in absolutes it typically triggers me to play devil's advocate, regardless if I agree with them or not, because I think it's absurd for one to adopt (and represent) their predictions as certainties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCOComics Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Callaway29 said: I also recall a certain individual pumping AF15 hourly, for months, on these boards so I was kind of annoyed with it at the time. He/she literally ONLY posted about AF15, and every single post was unmitigated to the moon proclamations...and it was rapid fire. He/she monopolized all other discussions. As soon as AF15 cooled he/she disappeared forever...presumably because their pump/dump campaign was over. The primary action was in a different AF15 thread though...the "main" one? I don't recall their username either... When individuals speak in absolutes it typically triggers me to play devil's advocate, regardless if I agree with them or not, because I think it's absurd for one to adopt (and represent) their predictions as certainties... Maybe I could use the boards to manipulate the low grade marvel BA horror market??? I have a bunch of it! And honestly, I don't think your prediction was wrong. Prices slowed, but demand was always there. I'll be curious to see if X1 and other books that have gone through tremendous growth will follow this pattern? We saw it with Hulk 1 and TOS39 years ago. Huge run ups followed by years of stability. I imagine we'll see something similar here. Pretty slow growth rates until the next big spike. Edited June 7, 2021 by KCOComics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoMan Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 2 hours ago, Callaway29 said: I also recall a certain individual pumping AF15 hourly, for months, on these boards so I was kind of annoyed with it at the time. He/she literally ONLY posted about AF15, and every single post was unmitigated to the moon proclamations...and it was rapid fire. He/she monopolized all other discussions. As soon as AF15 cooled he/she disappeared forever...presumably because their pump/dump campaign was over. The primary action was in a different AF15 thread though...the "main" one? I don't recall their username either... When individuals speak in absolutes it typically triggers me to play devil's advocate, regardless if I agree with them or not, because I think it's absurd for one to adopt (and represent) their predictions as certainties... Yeah he/she was Subby 358 or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoMan Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 12 hours ago, Dark Knight said: If you are not a club member yet, you definitely missed the boat I’m not sure that’s saying much in this silly market. Heck the way things are now if you missed She Hulk 1 you definitely missed the boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Knight Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 37 minutes ago, NoMan said: I’m not sure that’s saying much in this silly market. Heck the way things are now if you missed She Hulk 1 you definitely missed the boat. Since this thread is solely about AF 15, I kept it that way. We are pretty much in all time highs with practically every SA, BA, and some (maybe? I don't keep much track of it) modern key books. So, if one were to add books such as XM 1, GSX 1, MS 5, Ultimate Fallout 4 just to name a few than they're basically paying current top of the market. Who knows how much longer this will continue, it's all a guessing game at this point. Will prices continue to soar or will it get a correction? I'm betting on the latter as with anything that has soared at huge increases in %'s, more than likely, that item will surely go through a dip buy. Not a bubble pop crash type is what I'm predicting. Right when I saw the exponential increase in sale prices happening first with X-Men 1 then moved on to FF 1, 5, 48 and DD 1 earlier this year, I knew I had to jump in quickly and buy some SA key books before it moves onto those books I was looking at. At that time AF 15 was still "quiet" as well as Hulk 1, TOS 39, and JIM 83. I already have an AF 15 so I managed to buy a Hulk 1 and TOS 39. I was so close to adding a JIM 83 but I ran out of spending money to buy . Sure enough within a month's time of me adding those books, prices climbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krismusic Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 10 hours ago, Mr bla bla said: Railway to the moon, baby ... Lol Dark Knight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr bla bla Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, Krismusic said: Lol 👍 Krismusic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badback83 Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 Where’s @Glassman10? I haven’t seen him post in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger66 Posted June 7, 2021 Share Posted June 7, 2021 AF15 is the Action Comics #1 of the Silver Age You can always find a copy to buy but the rabid demand makes it explode in price from time to time and this pandemic is certainly one of those times. Comic collectors in general are also like lemmings and often the slightest disturbance in the GPA comic force creates havoc amongst their collective psyches . Another factor, which many individuals forget is the element of time - AF15 hit the newsstand in August 1962, which is almost 59 years ago. So most collectors weren't even born yet and like a fine wine - this comic only gets better. I think anyone who had been sitting on their hands and wallets over the years on this book should feel a legitimate sharp pang of regret and perhaps disgust in not getting their copy when they could've (human nature is often about regret and denial). As far as the up and downward trends of this Uber-Key - if you own a copy or copies you likely don't really care (unless you are a dealer or want another copy) and if you don't own it you can cross your fingers and hope that it might come down a chunk but I wouldn't hold my breath. Regardless only time will tell - only time will tell. my 2-cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
