@therealsilvermane Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 (edited) 14 minutes ago, drotto said: I do wonder how much the long term damage from theater closure is going to be. Around me AMC has closed permanently the largest theater by far at 24 screens, including the Imax screen. They have informed me my "new" primary theater is a 10 screen one about 5 minutes further from me. The biggest issue is not only does that theater have fewer screens, but the average individual theater seats less than 1/2 of the one that closed. I have one more independent theater about 15 minutes from me (which actually is my primary one), that seems like it has survived that I think is 10 screens. The next theater around my then jumps to at least 30 minutes, and I live in a very populated area. So I went from having 44 screens within 15 minutes to having 20 screens, and the overall seats are probably reduced by 65%. I definitely agree with pundits who think there'll be a new normal once the pandemic is over, such as streaming venues taking a bigger share of audiences. Theaters will also have less seating, fewer theaters, etc. But I think people will still flock to theaters for the big tentpole movies and trending movies. A new Cinemark down the street from me has continued construction from early last year, and will probably be a model (among other new theaters) of this new normal ie fewer but more comfortable seats, better theatrical experience you can't get at home, etc. On the other hand, Martin Scorsese's fears will probably be realized and we'll see smaller films he champions get released as streaming on Netflix and Amazon. Maybe the primary window for theatrical only releases will increase a couple weekends (when theaters get a larger share of profits) to make up for the revenue loss. Perhaps the model of cramming tentpole movie after tentpole movie down our throats is over. Maybe Studios will have to realize that movie quality will have to increase to draw audiences over the apparent recent model of quantity over quality. Maybe entertainment will be the better for it. From the looks of this recent Black Widow trailer, Marvel looks to have a headstart in upping the quality of big budget popcorn cinema, to paraphrase Mr. Scorsese. Edited April 4, 2021 by @therealsilvermane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosco685 Posted April 4, 2021 Author Share Posted April 4, 2021 38 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said: GvK did respectable numbers in China and moderately decent numbers here, but it's not going to be enough to create the major habit change of global audiences going to the movies that's needed to truly call this the revival of the movie theater industry. Regal, Cinemark, and AMC can open every theater in America if they want, but it's still too soon. The world is still in the pandemic. Vaccines aren't even fully available U.S. nationwide yet. After this weekend, I predict a major falloff in theater attendance for anything. China is an outlier as they've been going to the movies for a while now. July 4th weekend is when we can start to mark the movie theater chain revival. Top Gun 2 will set it up, Black Widow will knock it down(even with Disney+ Premiere Access). After that, America will truly return to the movies. People will want to see Black Widow at the movie theaters. You might as well put it in the history books now. Your fanatic predictions are nice. But it is also too easy to shoot the football down the field knowing someone will catch it. Now that the COVID vaccine in the USA is widely distributed (thank God), there will be more folks than ever feeling more comfortable returning to the theater. Even though anything in 2021 on a wide scale is still dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
▫️ Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 (edited) 45 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said: GvK did respectable numbers in China and moderately decent numbers here, but it's not going to be enough to create the major habit change of global audiences going to the movies that's needed to truly call this the revival of the movie theater industry. Regal, Cinemark, and AMC can open every theater in America if they want, but it's still too soon. The world is still in the pandemic. Vaccines aren't even fully available U.S. nationwide yet. After this weekend, I predict a major falloff in theater attendance for anything. China is an outlier as they've been going to the movies for a while now. July 4th weekend is when we can start to mark the movie theater chain revival. Top Gun 2 will set it up, Black Widow will knock it down(even with Disney+ Premiere Access). After that, America will truly return to the movies. People will want to see Black Widow at the movie theaters. You might as well put it in the history books now. Don’t kid yourself, it’s Black Widow, it’s no Top Gun or Dune or No Time to Die. I really want to see it, but I’m good with buying it on iTunes. Not a must-see on the big screen. Even the dumb Godzilla movie is bringing it in and it’s only been a week. It will most likely end as the highest grossing movie during the pandemic year. Black Widow missed that boat. Edited April 4, 2021 by Oddball theCapraAegagrus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
▫️ Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said: I definitely agree with pundits who think there'll be a new normal once the pandemic is over, such as streaming venues taking a bigger share of audiences. Theaters will also have less seating, fewer theaters, etc. But I think people will still flock to theaters for the big tentpole movies and trending movies. A new Cinemark down the street from me has continued construction from early last year, and will probably be a model (among other new theaters) of this new normal ie fewer but more comfortable seats, better theatrical experience you can't get at home, etc. On the other hand, Martin Scorsese's fears will probably be realized and we'll see smaller films he champions get released as streaming on Netflix and Amazon. Maybe the primary window for theatrical only releases will increase a couple weekends (when theaters get a larger share of profits) to make up for the revenue loss. Perhaps the model of cramming tentpole movie after tentpole movie down our throats is over. Maybe Studios will have to realize that movie quality will have to increase to draw audiences over the apparent recent model of quantity over quality. Maybe entertainment will be the better for it. From the looks of this recent Black Widow trailer, Marvel looks to have a headstart in upping the quality of big budget popcorn cinema, to paraphrase Mr. Scorsese. Who hurt you? Scorsese? Show us on this doll. Bosco685, bentbryan, drotto and 1 other 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drotto Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said: I definitely agree with pundits who think there'll be a new normal once the pandemic is over, such as streaming venues taking a bigger share of audiences. Theaters will also have less seating, fewer theaters, etc. But I think people will still flock to theaters for the big tentpole movies and trending movies. A new Cinemark down the street from me has continued construction from early last year, and will probably be a model (among other new theaters) of this new normal ie fewer but more comfortable seats, better theatrical experience you can't get at home, etc. On the other hand, Martin Scorsese's fears will probably be realized and we'll see smaller films he champions get released as streaming on Netflix and Amazon. Maybe the primary window for theatrical only releases will increase a couple weekends (when theaters get a larger share of profits) to make up for the revenue loss. Perhaps the model of cramming tentpole movie after tentpole movie down our throats is over. Maybe Studios will have to realize that movie quality will have to increase to draw audiences over the apparent recent model of quantity over quality. Maybe entertainment will be the better for it. From the looks of this recent Black Widow trailer, Marvel looks to have a headstart in upping the quality of big budget popcorn cinema, to paraphrase Mr. Scorsese. Movies theaters will survive, but for the near future (maybe forever) the massive billions dollar films are likely gone. Tent polls will still do well, but I do not see any significant theater market left for small independent films. The theatrical window has already been greatly shortened, ignoring the same day streaming, one movie company had already negotiated a 17 day window (I forget the company). It will be very hard to take that back, the smaller window is here to stay, and that will change viewing habits. It is also very hard to make money for a film if the window is that small. It may no longer make economic sense to release small budget films in theaters. Next, there is a group of people that have broken the theater habit, and will not see going to the theater as a good value, when they can just wait 2 or 3 weeks and see it anyway. To compensate, theaters will have to give people an experience they see is valuable. That likely means prices will go up. When that happens some people will be financially kept away. I miss movies in theaters, but I fear so many have learned they do not miss them, and there are plenty of ways to get their entertainment. You are also placing too much stock in movies that have been essentially collecting dust for 1 year. Regardless, of the film, I think many of these movie will be viewed as passed their prime. Those releasing in July are still not going to be clear of the pandemic. I highly doubt theaters in big market will be open at high enough capacities for big numbers. In order for a film to hit is big they need the big markets like NYC, LA, Chicago, etc. Those places are still going to be at 50% capacity if you are lucky. Plus, those cities have a population that i think will be slower to return to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@therealsilvermane Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, Oddball said: Don’t kid yourself, it’s Black Widow, it’s no Top Gun or Dune or No Time to Die. I really want to see it, but I’m good with buying it on iTunes. Not a must-see on the big screen. Even the dumb Godzilla movie is bringing it in and it’s only been a week. It will most likely end as the highest grossing movie during the pandemic year. Black Widow missed that boat. You can deny the MCU all you want, but the size of its global fan base can't be denied. Dune looks like another Villenueve snoozefest and Top Gun 2 is for the parents, though people will flock to see it for the 4th of July and then flock to see Black Widow the following weekend. The MCU is the boat. 12 minutes ago, Oddball said: Who hurt you? Scorsese? Show us on this doll. Show me the doll. theCapraAegagrus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Bosco685 Posted April 4, 2021 Author Popular Post Share Posted April 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said: You can deny the MCU all you want, but the size of its global fan base can't be denied. Dune looks like another Villenueve snoozefest and Top Gun 2 is for the parents, though people will flock to see it for the 4th of July and then flock to see Black Widow the following weekend. The MCU is the boat. You are making yourself look so blindly fanatical versus supportive of what you enjoy (though you've done that for some time). After films like Captain Mavel and Avengers: Endgame had people going 100 (+) times to show their support (that money really would have been sweet going towards a worthy charity), there is no doubt many have made it extremely personal that the MCU is a massive win with each film. Nobody doubts those folks will show up, no matter the hazards. Which makes it even more troubling. 4 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said: Show me the doll. media_junkie, theCapraAegagrus, bentbryan and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drotto Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said: You can deny the MCU all you want, but the size of its global fan base can't be denied. Dune looks like another Villenueve snoozefest and Top Gun 2 is for the parents, though people will flock to see it for the 4th of July and then flock to see Black Widow the following weekend. The MCU is the boat. Show me the doll. Ok going to put you on the spot. What is going to be the Box Office of Black Widow? Before the pandemic, the expected box office was probably between $600 and $700 million, what is it now? What is the number which save the movie theater business? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosco685 Posted April 4, 2021 Author Share Posted April 4, 2021 1 minute ago, drotto said: Ok going to put you on the spot. What is going to be the Box Office of Black Widow? Before the pandemic, the expected box office was probably between $600 and $700 million, what is it now? What is the number which save the movie theater business? bentbryan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@therealsilvermane Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, drotto said: Ok going to put you on the spot. What is going to be the Box Office of Black Widow? Before the pandemic, the expected box office was probably between $600 and $700 million, what is it now? What is the number which save the movie theater business? 500 million worldwide theCapraAegagrus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
▫️ Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 38 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said: Dune looks like another Villenueve snoozefest You don’t like his movies? So it’s strictly Marvel, Transformers and Fast and Furious for you. That’s cool, not judging. If you fell asleep during Sicario, well it’s no wonder we can’t relate on movies. Larryw7, Muno42, theCapraAegagrus and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosco685 Posted April 4, 2021 Author Share Posted April 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, @therealsilvermane said: 500 million worldwide It is nutty the times we live in when even a long-running massive franchise prediction at the highest lands at half a billion dollars. Now time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@therealsilvermane Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Oddball said: You don’t like his movies? So it’s strictly Marvel, Transformers and Fast and Furious for you. That’s cool, not judging. If you fell asleep during Sicario, well it’s no wonder we can’t relate on movies. I didn't see Sicario, but Arrival(though good) and Blade Runner 3000 moved like molasses. I've got room on my "I care" plate for one franchise and it's the MCU. I don't even care about Star Wars anymore of which every movie of that franchise that's come out since ROTJ is just an expensive fan film and nothing more as far as I'm concerned. theCapraAegagrus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paperheart Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 2 hours ago, @therealsilvermane said: 500 million worldwide does this assume China disdains it like WW1984 or embraces ala everything MCU (except Thor:DW) post Avengers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drotto Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 2 hours ago, @therealsilvermane said: 500 million worldwide Ok, fair play. I will take a stab also since I asked you. I will say $350 world wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosco685 Posted April 4, 2021 Author Share Posted April 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, paperheart said: does this assume China disdains it like WW1984 or embraces ala everything MCU (except Thor:DW) post Avengers? That's a given Disney will sell its soul to appease China movie-goers by any means possible (RE: Mulan) There'll be some fine reference to some credible entity within the local region. Something like an Iron Man 3 scene or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosco685 Posted April 4, 2021 Author Share Posted April 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, drotto said: Ok, fair play. I will take a stab also since I asked you. I will say $350 world wide. I think in today's market due to the worldwide pandemic anything above $300M worldwide is considered a huge success. I think your reasonable $350M takes into consideration a period of time where theaters will open and close as current and new strains of COVID possibly come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@therealsilvermane Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 43 minutes ago, paperheart said: does this assume China disdains it like WW1984 or embraces ala everything MCU (except Thor:DW) post Avengers? China loves the MCU more than Godzilla, so the latter. 250 mil US, 150 mil China, 100 mil international. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
media_junkie Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 6 hours ago, Bosco685 said: You are making yourself look so blindly fanatical versus supportive of what you enjoy (though you've done that for some time). After films like Captain Mavel and Avengers: Endgame had people going 100 (+) times to show their support (that money really would have been sweet going towards a worthy charity), there is no doubt many have made it extremely personal that the MCU is a massive win with each film. Nobody doubts those folks will show up, no matter the hazards. Which makes it even more troubling. That is the funniest thing I have seen this year! Thanks @Bosco685 Bosco685 and bentbryan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paperheart Posted April 5, 2021 Share Posted April 5, 2021 6 hours ago, @therealsilvermane said: 500 million worldwide $150MM US, $125MM China, $200MM other Int'l (assumes EU doesn't get its act together by July ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
