STAR WARS : Episode IX December 20, 2019 6 6

[RedRaven]

The poor critics score on RT actually gives me hope the movie might be OK.

[mattn792]

1 hour ago, drotto said:

This movie is already tracking for 175 to 200 million, and should hit that.  My gut says it has a big 60% plus drop second weekend and short legs. So let's put it out there for $400 to $450 million domestic.

 

International, this movie will be a tough sell.  The Chinese market seems to have little love for Star Wars, and international audiences in general are not as big on these films. Going off the domestic to international breakdowns for the last two films which were 46 domestic to 54 world averaged out, I would expect similar here. That gives you 470 to 528 million international box office.

 

So my guess for final box office is 870 to 978 million.  Now that I look at those numbers logically it feels low, but my gut is just telling me the numbers seem right.

I have been operating under the belief that 9 figures is a forgone conclusion for this movie, but you did get me thinking - The Force Awakens probably crushed Avatar's domestic record in part based upon the renewed enthusiasm that Star Wars was once again moving forward.  But since Sky of Risewalker was announced as the end of the new cast and of the run of Episodes, will this drastically sap box office enthusiasm?  Seems a real possibility it could since folks can now look upon the whole VII-IX endeavor as largely pointless beyond a cash grab and will just wait to Red Box it.  

[Buzzetta]

18 hours ago, mattn792 said:

(Intermission)

IMHO.

Nah... Vader may have the Mufasa / Terrence Mann voice but I am talking about the dialogue itself. 

[Buzzetta]

10 hours ago, Larryw7 said:

I wonder what this guy is thinking?

I did some digging on the way home. 

He liked TLJ but disliked the FA.  He was also (allegedly) critical of them bringing back the Emperor. 

[paperheart]

1 hour ago, drotto said:

This movie is already tracking for 175 to 200 million, and should hit that.  My gut says it has a big 60% plus drop second weekend and short legs. So let's put it out there for $400 to $450 million domestic.

 

International, this movie will be a tough sell.  The Chinese market seems to have little love for Star Wars, and international audiences in general are not as big on these films. Going off the domestic to international breakdowns for the last two films which were 46 domestic to 54 world averaged out, I would expect similar here. That gives you 470 to 528 million international box office.

 

So my guess for final box office is 870 to 978 million.  Now that I look at those numbers logically it feels low, but my gut is just telling me the numbers seem right.

these #'s would be fairly disastrous but i have wondered if it will pass Rogue One's $1.06BB, seems hard to imagine it gets to TLJ #'s; this will cap off a terrible year at US BO, barely above 2009's $10.6BB

[Buzzetta]

8 hours ago, zhamlau said:

Critics seem to have been committed to TLJ in defending and building up the choices made in it. This film by all accounts was working overtime to try and correct the damage from that film and a lot of critics Didnt seem to like that. 

Many people actually liked TLJ and disliked TFA and do not see it as 'damage'.  I actually see what JJ did as 'damage' 

8 hours ago, zhamlau said:

Disney probably knew that if they gave us another TLJ the franchise would be a critics darling that fans would have no interest in. But due to the outright carnage of TLJ there was no easy way back so they had to resurrect Palpatine to try and come up with something fans would like to remind them of the good times. The problem is bringing him back makes RoTJ meaningless. 

I don't think Disney cares what the fans think one way or another.  So many people said that they were going to boycott all things Disney Star Wars in butthurt fantasy camp protest.   (I flip through twitter once in awhile).  Yet, the Mandalorian is the talk of the town.   People are eating baby yoda up with a spoon. 

8 hours ago, zhamlau said:

They made Rey way to overpowered and borderline Marysue perfect. They killed Luke after making him a dishonorable emo whiny brat. Carrie died IRL so the planned “make it all about Leia and Rey” was lost to them. Han was there just to die. Kylo is sort of interesting but they kept making him look weak and gullible to its hard to get all ramped up for him. The rest of the characters are paper thin and poorly written...where can you go from there?! 
 

 

Nah... as I rewatch, I see more and more that Johnson did his SW homework, while JJ produced a greatest hits album.   With the way that Lucas presented the Jedi Order in Episodes 1-3 it is a natural progression for Luke to lose faith and retreat believing that the old ways need to be completely destroyed. 

[Buzzetta]

6 hours ago, theCapraAegagrus said:

The critics hate the course correction away from TLJ and the nostalgia of Star Wars. That's making me more excited to see this.

They loved Endgame, though...?

Loved me some Last Jedi - praying to f'n god that JJ actually came up with a -script of his own rather than try and copy what has already been done again.  Seems that all JJ knows how to do is copy what others have done when he walks into a franchise.  

[Rip]

I'm thinking very close to TLJ numbers. I guessing 5%-10 less on the opening and a hair more on the final since this one has more packed into it for repeat viewings.

1.3-1.5B seems to be the most common numbers I see tossed around. But this one is hard to predict. 

 

(BTW Force Awakens is my least favorite Star Wars movie, but I don't hate it.)

[drotto]

23 minutes ago, mattn792 said:

I have been operating under the belief that 9 figures is a forgone conclusion for this movie, but you did get me thinking - The Force Awakens probably crushed Avatar's domestic record in part based upon the renewed enthusiasm that Star Wars was once again moving forward.  But since Sky of Risewalker was announced as the end of the new cast and of the run of Episodes, will this drastically sap box office enthusiasm?  Seems a real possibility it could since folks can now look upon the whole VII-IX endeavor as largely pointless beyond a cash grab and will just wait to Red Box it.  

I am not discounting 1 billion,  and part of me thinks it is very likely, but you also have to take Solo into consideration. That was tracking for 185 million and ended up tanking. 

 

I conceed, it feels risky and low to say it may not clear 1 billion.  But on the high side, I would be shocked if it stopped TLJ.

[Buzzetta]

2 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

Did you see that Ghost is clearly visible in the first trailer for this film as well?

To the upper right of the Millennium Falcon in the Rebel armada scene.

No I didn't actually... that's cool.  At the end of Rebels they say that Syndulla went on to fight at the battle of Endor and flew beyond that.   She was also helping the Rebels in the months leading up to Episode 4 long before Rogue One came out.   So it made sense for the ship to be there.  I am hoping that this gives them a nudge to produce the further adventures of her or continue the search for Ezra in the future.  I just did a google search and there are Rebels Easter Eggs supposedly in the film in terms of the force.  Maybe we get a live action Ezra movie which could be interesting. 

[Buzzetta]

2 hours ago, RedRaven said:

Agreed. IMO it was the best Star Wars movie since Empire Strikes Back. Oddly my identical twin brother hates it but instead enjoys that terrible Han Solo movie. He also proclaims the Hobbit movies superior to LOTR which floors me. Being identical twins you'd think our opinions would be a bit less opposed.

Try to give Solo another chance and watch Rogue One, Ep4 and then ESB and Solo actually gets better.  I promise you that.  Donald Glover is to Billy Dee's Lando as Ewan McGregor was to Alec Guiness' Obi Wan.  Glover is spot on.  If anything Solo made ESB even better because it gives you more of a back story when Han actually decides to go to Cloud City. 

It made me realize the following: 

• It has been well over a decade since Han has seen Lando 
• Lando sells out Han so easily since they had never been as tight at one point as we were led to believe in ESB
• It makes a lot more sense when Han tells Chewbacca to keep his eyes open as Lando comes to greet him. 
• Lot of little things that I don't want to ruin but may give you some AHA moments.  You can't just watch Solo though.  Watch Solo and then ESB soon after. 

[Buzzetta]

13 minutes ago, Rip said:

I'm thinking very close to TLJ numbers. I guessing 5%-10 less on the opening and a hair more on the final since this one has more packed into it for repeat viewings.

1.3-1.5B seems to be the most common numbers I see tossed around. But this one is hard to predict. 

 

(BTW Force Awakens is my least favorite Star Wars movie, but I don't hate it.)

I can agree with that.  I don't 'hate' TFA either, it's just weak.  

I will take TFA over many other movies.   It's just one of the weakest SW movies to me. 

It's like Godfather III.  Godfather III is not a terrible movie.  It's just nowhere near as good as Godfather I and II. 

[drotto]

1 minute ago, Buzzetta said:

Try to give Solo another chance and watch Rogue One, Ep4 and then ESB and Solo actually gets better.  I promise you that.  Donald Glover is to Billy Dee's Lando as Ewan McGregor was to Alec Guiness' Obi Wan.  Glover is spot on.  If anything Solo made ESB even better because it gives you more of a back story when Han actually decides to go to Cloud City. 

It made me realize the following: 

• It has been well over a decade since Han has seen Lando 
• Lando sells out Han so easily since they had never been as tight at one point as we were led to believe in ESB
• It makes a lot more sense when Han tells Chewbacca to keep his eyes open as Lando comes to greet him. 
• Lot of little things that I don't want to ruin but may give you some AHA moments.  You can't just watch Solo though.  Watch Solo and then ESB soon after. 

Solo was an ok movie.  It was watchable and I liked it for the most part.  My two largest issues.. 

1. Han was miscast badly. 

2. It came across as massive fan service.  They did not have to address every major episode of Han's past hinted at in the OT in one movie. 

[Buzzetta]

1 minute ago, drotto said:

Solo was an ok movie.  It was watchable and I liked it for the most part.  My two largest issues.. 

1. Han was miscast badly. 

2. It came across as massive fan service.  They did not have to address every major episode of Han's past hinted at in the OT in one movie. 

I think you right about part of that.  I assume you are talking about when Harrelson hands him the blaster and we know how Han gets his signature gun.  Things like that were unnecessary. 

I think learning how he meets Chewbacca was a good inclusion. 

My question to you is this... would it have been better to have the Jabba mission where he dumps the spice as the focal point of the movie?  

Would it have been better to not even hint at Jabba to make the idea of a younger solo more palatable so the imagination would have allowed him to age into Harrison Ford? 

 

I will see what you write but respond later or tomorrow. 

Star Wars tomorrow... tonight Bocelli. 

[drotto]

15 minutes ago, Buzzetta said:

I think you right about part of that.  I assume you are talking about when Harrelson hands him the blaster and we know how Han gets his signature gun.  Things like that were unnecessary. 

I think learning how he meets Chewbacca was a good inclusion. 

My question to you is this... would it have been better to have the Jabba mission where he dumps the spice as the focal point of the movie?  

Would it have been better to not even hint at Jabba to make the idea of a younger solo more palatable so the imagination would have allowed him to age into Harrison Ford? 

 

I will see what you write but respond later or tomorrow. 

Star Wars tomorrow... tonight Bocelli. 

The fan service went way beyond the gun (I had forgotten that one). We had the Kessel run, why he was called Solo, meeting Chewie, the Sobac game, flying the Flacon for the first time, why the Falcon was a "weird" ship, Lando, his time in the Imperial army, how he became a smuggler, it just went on and on. It was to the point were the plot was there to string together these events rather than a interesting story.

 

I think they should have spent more time on him being a bad soldier and becoming a smuggler, and hint that he would eventually be good at this. He does too much too fast. He would do just enough in this film to get the attention of Jabba at the end of the movie (this assumes they were planning sequels) as the lead in to the next film.  Not the Maul reveal which was confusing to all but more seasoned fans. The first movie would be about struggling and starting to buildhis reputation.  This film had him kinda blindly stumbling into each plot point. Han is way smarter and crafter than that, and it needed to show him growing into the character.

 

I would have saved Jabba, the Kessel run, and the dropping of the spice for a second or even 3rd film.  The way they structured this he does all his legendary stuff almost by accident when he is 22, and does not do much else till we meet him in the OT.

 

[Gatsby77]

2 hours ago, Buzzetta said:

No I didn't actually... that's cool.  At the end of Rebels they say that Syndulla went on to fight at the battle of Endor and flew beyond that.   She was also helping the Rebels in the months leading up to Episode 4 long before Rogue One came out.   So it made sense for the ship to be there.  I am hoping that this gives them a nudge to produce the further adventures of her or continue the search for Ezra in the future.  I just did a google search and there are Rebels Easter Eggs supposedly in the film in terms of the force.  Maybe we get a live action Ezra movie which could be interesting. 

Ghost can be seen at ~1:01 of the final trailer.

[Rip]

 

 

This guy was famous with his TLJ review interesting to see him now talking about RoS. 

[I like pie]

Can't possibly be worse than TLJ

[MetalPSI]

6 hours ago, RedRaven said:

Agreed. IMO it was the best Star Wars movie since Empire Strikes Back. Oddly my identical twin brother hates it but instead enjoys that terrible Han Solo movie. He also proclaims the Hobbit movies superior to LOTR which floors me. Being identical twins you'd think our opinions would be a bit less opposed.

Solo was terrible. It wasn't horrible though.

I honestly don't know which Star Wars is my favorite anymore. I remember the originals fondly, because my childhood is embedded with the toys, movies and cartoons. Hell, I even loved C3P0's cereal.

Empire is up there though, more for Darth Vader than anything.

[media_junkie]

Empire is still the best of the bunch.