Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[Kevin76]

On 7/29/2021 at 10:26 AM, Hownow53 said:

What's going on with Hulk 181? According to GoCollect the whole book is trending down. I'm afraid I missed the highwater mark on my cgc 5.0 and am seeing big pullback in sale prices. I hate to sell anything on the down side, but if its going to take years for MCU news to turn the tide, and I don't have that big a time window to wait, should I just cut bait?

GoCollect 

[alexgross.com]

On 8/7/2021 at 2:01 PM, Pantodude said:

Oh boy.  Why so defensive alexgross?  This is a forum.  Relax.  I didn't say white pages shouldn't go for more.  Just that they haven't consistently.   Here's an IDEA for you.  GPA tracks page quality if you open the links to the certified slabs.  Surprise!   So I wonder what GPA you have been using.    Not cool to attack me for disagreeing with your point of view.  Be mad at the data.    Enjoy your books, but let others enjoy theirs, too.    With the market the way it's been, every potential seller should try to sell for most they can.  That was my advice.  You shouldn't have been offended by that.  

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!  So here I go again....with data for alexgross.com, in case he doesn't have GPA.  And this time for IH181 specifically, and for the most recent six sales in blue 5.0 (a random grade), to make the simple point.  No white, but a mix of C/OW, OW, and OW/W to show the point quite clearly.

5/8/21: C/OW  $4950
5/10/21:  OW/W $4900
5/29/21: C/OW  $5250
6/6/21: OW/W $4350
6/12/21: OW $5699
8/4/21:   OW/W $4788
 

As you can see, alexgross.com, even for a BA book like IH181, the C/OW fetched the two highest prices out of three in May, and the $5250 for the C/OW on 5/29 was the second highest sale from 5/8/21 through 8/4/21!   And even then, the $5699 high for the period was an OW, beating out all the OW/Ws during the period.  Note that the $5699 for the 6/12/21 OW was MUCH more then the $4350 for the OW/W on 6/6/21 went for.  That is what the data shows consistently, including with WHITE pagers (as previously discussed with numerous examples on these boards months ago).   Your welcome, alexgross.com.   I do enjoy your posts of white pagers, btw. 

 

what a surprise. thanks for your tiny data sample. as far as GPA links, i can click a couple of them before CGC stops showing specific page quality results for fear of being hacked. actually clickable prices are only around ten percent of all listings. but lets use the clickable ones:

searching hulk 181 9.0 for all of 2020. (2021 is far too unstable to be reliable for info.) in the entire year, take the five highest price books. all are either WHITE PAGES or OWWP.

heres some real results. feb 2nd, heritage. $5760. white page copy. march 8th, also linked, $4560. off white pages. 

heres another: july 23rd, $5950. mycomicship= WHITE PAGES. august 2nd, $4920. heritage- OWWP. 

bottom line, anyone can spin stats how they like. anyone who's been shopping this book for years knows about the white page premium. in fact, anyone who buys any graded books knows. do you own graded books at all? 

you've also spent considerable time pumping UK Pence copies and claiming that they are in fact more valuable than standard copies based on scant evidence. only novice collectors and english people are going to get on board with that one.  perhaps you should start a club with randal ries. and jaydogrules.

[MGsimba77]

I'm just guessing some of these low to mid grade white pagers had some experience throughout their lives as fly swatters? I know some believe PQ is randomly chosen but just incase there's a legit difference.

[Pantodude]

On 8/7/2021 at 6:27 PM, alexgross.com said:

what a surprise. thanks for your tiny data sample. as far as GPA links, i can click a couple of them before CGC stops showing specific page quality results for fear of being hacked. actually clickable prices are only around ten percent of all listings. but lets use the clickable ones:

searching hulk 181 9.0 for all of 2020. (2021 is far too unstable to be reliable for info.) in the entire year, take the five highest price books. all are either WHITE PAGES or OWWP.

heres some real results. feb 2nd, heritage. $5760. white page copy. march 8th, also linked, $4560. off white pages. 

heres another: july 23rd, $5950. mycomicship= WHITE PAGES. august 2nd, $4920. heritage- OWWP. 

bottom line, anyone can spin stats how they like. anyone who's been shopping this book for years knows about the white page premium. in fact, anyone who buys any graded books knows. do you own graded books at all? 

you've also spent considerable time pumping UK Pence copies and claiming that they are in fact more valuable than standard copies based on scant evidence. only novice collectors and english people are going to get on board with that one.  perhaps you should start a club with randal ries. and jaydogrules.

I wasn’t going to spend unpaid time doing your research for you!  I already did that months ago, and you conveniently forgot it.  If you need me to point to those old threads, just ask!  Anyway, I picked a random grade and left NOTHING out for the period I looked at, and it showed what I expected it would.   At the end of the day, the data is what it is, and what you just wrote (cherry-picking?) changes nothing.  I almost want to throw more data at you, but your pettiness is enough for both of us. Enjoy your books!  And the rest of your weekend. Hopefully all of this was actually helpful to the poster selling his book!  

Edited August 7, 2021 by Pantodude

[Pantodude]

On 8/7/2021 at 6:27 PM, alexgross.com said:

what a surprise. thanks for your tiny data sample. as far as GPA links, i can click a couple of them before CGC stops showing specific page quality results for fear of being hacked. actually clickable prices are only around ten percent of all listings. but lets use the clickable ones:

searching hulk 181 9.0 for all of 2020. (2021 is far too unstable to be reliable for info.) in the entire year, take the five highest price books. all are either WHITE PAGES or OWWP.

heres some real results. feb 2nd, heritage. $5760. white page copy. march 8th, also linked, $4560. off white pages. 

heres another: july 23rd, $5950. mycomicship= WHITE PAGES. august 2nd, $4920. heritage- OWWP. 

bottom line, anyone can spin stats how they like. anyone who's been shopping this book for years knows about the white page premium. in fact, anyone who buys any graded books knows. do you own graded books at all? 

you've also spent considerable time pumping UK Pence copies and claiming that they are in fact more valuable than standard copies based on scant evidence. only novice collectors and english people are going to get on board with that one.  perhaps you should start a club with randal ries. and jaydogrules.

At the end of the day, the data is what it is.  INCONSISTENT regarding this issue.  But i note that the poster (Hownow53) is trying to sell his book NOW, so the data from May to August is the most relevant, unstable as you say or not.  And the poster didn't say his book was a high grade like 9.0, which is the data you looked at.   He clearly said his book was a 5.0, and I looked at ALL reported sales on GPA since May for that grade.  Hope all this data helps someone.  

Edited August 8, 2021 by Pantodude

[Pantodude]

Edited August 8, 2021 by Pantodude

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 8/7/2021 at 5:01 PM, Pantodude said:

Oh boy.  Why so defensive alexgross?  This is a forum.  Relax.  I didn't say white pages shouldn't go for more.  Just that they haven't consistently.   Here's an IDEA for you.  GPA tracks page quality if you open the links to the certified slabs.  Surprise!   So I wonder what GPA you have been using.    Not cool to attack me for disagreeing with your point of view.  Be mad at the data.    Enjoy your books, but let others enjoy theirs, too.    With the market the way it's been, every potential seller should try to sell for most they can.  That was my advice.  You shouldn't have been offended by that.  

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!  So here I go again....with data for alexgross.com, in case he doesn't have GPA.  And this time for IH181 specifically, and for the most recent six sales in blue 5.0 (a random grade), to make the simple point.  No white, but a mix of C/OW, OW, and OW/W to show the point quite clearly.

5/8/21: C/OW  $4950
5/10/21:  OW/W $4900
5/29/21: C/OW  $5250
6/6/21: OW/W $4350
6/12/21: OW $5699
8/4/21:   OW/W $4788
 

As you can see, alexgross.com, even for a BA book like IH181, the C/OW fetched the two highest prices out of three in May, and the $5250 for the C/OW on 5/29 was the second highest sale from 5/8/21 through 8/4/21!   And even then, the $5699 high for the period was an OW, beating out all the OW/Ws during the period.  Note that the $5699 for the 6/12/21 OW was MUCH more then the $4350 for the OW/W on 6/6/21 went for.  That is what the data shows consistently, including with WHITE pagers (as previously discussed with numerous examples on these boards months ago).   Your welcome, alexgross.com.   I do enjoy your posts of white pagers, btw. 

 

Appreciate the analysis, but 5.0 is not really a "random" grade.  Respectfully, I would say it's actually a poorly chosen grade -- because when you're talking about mid-grade books, there are so many variables by which you could differentiate two copies of a given issue that it's impossible to isolate the impact of any one variable.  But the higher up the grading scale you go, the more likely you'll be able to see the premium for page quality (and centering) because the differences in physical condition between the books diminish drastically.  Also, it shouldn't surprise anyone that collectors picky enough to buy higher grades are much more likely to differentiate on page quality (and centering).

In short, my general advice for anyone who's interested is that you should always try to buy a book that is "good for its grade."  When you're buying a 5.0, the overall eye appeal of the book is much more likely to make it so than a distinction between WP and OW/W.  When you're buying 9.4 - 9.8, page quality and centering (in either order, depending on the collector) are going to drive the definition of what makes a particular copy more desirable.

[Pantodude]

On 8/7/2021 at 8:24 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Appreciate the analysis, but 5.0 is not really a "random" grade.

BTW, 5.0 is THE grade of the book Hownow53 (the poster we are all talking about!) is trying to sell.   So it is the RELEVANT grade, I should have said.   Things could be different for the higher grades, since so much more money is at issue, such that folks will go the extra mile for a white pager.  No problem with that.  Makes cents to me.   But if I were to look into it, it wouldn't surprise me to find inconsistency there too because GPA's data is mostly from eBay.  

Edited August 8, 2021 by Pantodude

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 8/7/2021 at 8:25 PM, Pantodude said:

OMG.  5.0 is THE grade of the book Hownow53 (the poster we are all talking about!) is trying to sell.   

Maybe that's what you're talking about, but it's not what I'm talking about.  I thought my previous post was pretty clear in framing my hypothesis.

Let me try one more time to synthesize this.  I hope I didn't misread your posts, but it sounded to me like you were saying that the data shows no differentiation in value for page quality, with no qualification around the grade or the age of the book.  My original comment was not an attempt to rebut you in any way, but I was essentially trying to give you a qualified agreement with your position.  In other words, I agree with you that for a 5.0, page quality alone is not going to tell the story -- and I've stated the reasons why I agree in my second post.  One 5.0 might have a crease across the entire cover or an ugly stain that detracts from the cover art, and another might have a handful of less severe issues including an invisible water spot or stuff on the back cover that doesn't detract from the cover.  Those things will differentiate copies much more than page quality.

My only point of disagreement, if in fact you are trying to make this case, is around whether there's no premium for white pages in high grade.

[Pantodude]

On 8/7/2021 at 8:33 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Maybe that's what you're talking about, but it's not what I'm talking about.  I thought my previous post was pretty clear in framing my hypothesis.

Let me try one more time to synthesize this.  I hope I didn't misread your posts, but it sounded to me like you were saying that the data shows no differentiation in value for page quality, with no qualification around the grade or the age of the book.  My original comment was not an attempt to rebut you in any way, but I was essentially trying to give you a qualified agreement with your position.  In other words, I agree with you that for a 5.0, page quality alone is not going to tell the story -- and I've stated the reasons why I agree in my second post.  One 5.0 might have a crease across the entire cover or an ugly stain that detracts from the cover art, and another might have a handful of less severe issues including an invisible water spot or stuff on the back cover that doesn't detract from the cover.  Those things will differentiate copies much more than page quality.

My only point of disagreement, if in fact you are trying to make this case, is around whether there's no premium for white pages in high grade.

Ah, I edited my post just before you wrote the above.  Like I wrote, what you said makes cents to me regarding higher grades, and mid-grades, too.    

Edited August 8, 2021 by Pantodude

[MGsimba77]

On 8/7/2021 at 8:33 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

In other words, I agree with you that for a 5.0, page quality alone is not going to tell the story -- and I've stated the reasons why I agree in my second post.  One 5.0 might have a crease across the entire cover or an ugly stain that detracts from the cover art, and another might have a handful of less severe issues including an invisible water spot or stuff on the back cover that doesn't detract from the cover.  Those things will differentiate copies much more than page quality.

My only point of disagreement, if in fact you are trying to make this case, is around whether there's no premium for white pages in high grade.

Yeah that's a good point about 5.0s potentially having a wide variation in eye appeal but eye appeal that doesn't involve centering. That could possibly explain the GPA data there albeit the small sample size. But just intuitively it's difficult to imagine how 5.0 whites if given a large enough sample size wouldn't fetch some level of premium. I mean if for nothing else the fact that there's typically so many more mid grade non white than WP. But yeah you make a fair point about how certain defects can override the PQ.  

As for 9.8/9.6, I'm curious as to your views of on the lower census 9.8 or 9.6 that comes up for sale maybe once a year or once every 3 years? I'm not talking about IH181 of course but say like for example.... ASM82 in 9.8 (just to use an example). You think if a well centered ASM82 9.8 comes up that's less than WP should or shouldn't command top dollar? Keeping in mind you're likely not seeing another for years down the line. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 8/7/2021 at 9:46 PM, MGsimba77 said:

Yeah that's a good point about 5.0s potentially having a wide variation in eye appeal but eye appeal that doesn't involve centering. That could possibly explain the GPA data there albeit the small sample size. But just intuitively it's difficult to imagine how 5.0 whites if given a large enough sample size wouldn't fetch some level of premium. I mean if for nothing else the fact that there's typically so many more mid grade non white than WP. But yeah you make a fair point about how certain defects can override the PQ.  

As for 9.8/9.6, I'm curious as to your views of on the lower census 9.8 or 9.6 that comes up for sale maybe once a year or once every 3 years? I'm not talking about IH181 of course but say like for example.... ASM82 in 9.8 (just to use an example). You think if a well centered ASM82 9.8 comes up that's less than WP should or shouldn't command top dollar? Keeping in mind you're likely not seeing another for years down the line. 

Absolutely.  Like I said above, my collection is really stratified by grade and date.  There's a date (around 1980) after which I generally only want 9.8 WP.  All of those books are in reasonably plentiful supply in 9.8 so I can afford to be picky about the white pages.  Flip-wise, I generally don't go after 9.8 in the Bronze Age and certainly not the Silver Age.  The further back you go, the more you're potentially dealing with much more scarcity around 9.8s -- so yes, I would absolutely toss out the WP requirement for those books.  

Edited August 8, 2021 by Sweet Lou 14

[Pantodude]

On 8/7/2021 at 6:27 PM, alexgross.com said:

i can click a couple of them before CGC stops showing specific page quality results for fear of being hacked. actually clickable prices are only around ten percent of all listings

It sounds like something is wrong with your GPA?   In the scan below, each one of those circles (with the arrows pointing to the upper right at 45 deg) to the right of the certification number should be a clickable link to CGC's certification page, which provides the page quality, along with all the label info/comments.  Not that I want any more back and forth on this (!), but I thought you should know that you don't need to limit yourself to the few clickable Heritage links (the underlined prices).   

Edited August 8, 2021 by Pantodude

[Hownow53]

Hey everybody. First of all I REALLY  appreciate all the interest, effort, experience and data points that you have all brought to my quest for guidance on selling my Hulk 181. I thought I would first clarify that my book is OW/W for the record. I also appreciate EVERYONE'S input and hope that the hot back and forth  simmers down a bit. I may be naive,  but I assume everyone is giving their best opinions for the good of the community and to help someone (like me) out. So plenty of thanks to go around.

Meanwhile, I have come upon a solution about my "sell or not FOMO problem", by agreeing to part with a  2/3 share in the book to a family member who has patience and time to wait for more growth, the MCU, or whatever comes down the road for an agreed upon amount, keeping it in the family, getting some decent cash now, with an upside future for both of us. That seems like a win/win to me.

Again, thanks for the ongoing education!

[piper]

On 8/7/2021 at 10:58 AM, Homeboy32 said:

Hello All. This is my first post. My Hulk 181 is scheduled to arrive Monday! Not much of a collector, have just a hand full of comics. Only other graded comic is Wolverine #1. This comic has been on my radar for at least 15yrs though. Can't wait. It's a 9.0 with white pages. I didn't receive it yet, but this is the picture the seller originally sent me. He was asking $10,000 for it. I offered $8,500 but we settled for $9,500. I don't plan on ever selling it honestly. I'll pass it down to my son eventually who's 1.5yrs old now! Thoughts?

I'm admittedly not looking at GPA on a regular basis for this book and in this grade, but that seems like a good buy at this price point.  I like the overall presentation of the book (strong colours, no white on the spine) and the controversial white pages.

Nice pick-up!

At this point, I'm playing with house money, as I bought my 8.5 copy for ~ $1450 several years ago.  I should have bought 10 copies.

[Pantodude]

On 8/7/2021 at 12:58 PM, Homeboy32 said:

Hello All. This is my first post. My Hulk 181 is scheduled to arrive Monday! Not much of a collector, have just a hand full of comics. Only other graded comic is Wolverine #1. This comic has been on my radar for at least 15yrs though. Can't wait. It's a 9.0 with white pages. I didn't receive it yet, but this is the picture the seller originally sent me. He was asking $10,000 for it. I offered $8,500 but we settled for $9,500. I don't plan on ever selling it honestly. I'll pass it down to my son eventually who's 1.5yrs old now! Thoughts?

Hi.  I don't know how I missed this post.  Definitely the best price for a 9.0 I'm aware of since like Spring.   The market has retraced a bit of late, but on 8/5 a 9.0 sold for $11K (for an Off-White), and on 7/31 for $10.5K (for a White), so your $9500 for a White sounds quite good to me by comparison!  Congrats  

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 8/9/2021 at 8:24 PM, Pantodude said:

Hi.  I don't know how I missed this post.  Definitely the best price for a 9.0 I'm aware of since like Spring.   The market has retraced a bit of late, but on 8/5 a 9.0 sold for $11K (for an Off-White), and on 7/31 for $10.5K (for a White), so your $9500 for a White sounds quite good to me by comparison!  Congrats  

Wait, so prices vary based on page quality?!

[Pantodude]

On 8/9/2021 at 8:54 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Wait, so prices vary based on page quality?!

Yes, apparently.  And again, not in the way you would have thought!  Of those three most-recent including GPA sales in a one-week span for a 9.0 IH181, the high of $11K on 8/5/21 was for an Off-White despite two Whites (the poster's $9500 and another for $10,500 on 7/31) being in the mix.  Going back more, more of the same:  on 7/25, a White sold for $10423, but on 7/11, an OW/W sold for $10,800, and then we have the high for the year of $15,158 on 7/2, which was for an OW/W!   That was ALL of the August/July data.   Next is June data, but I'm tired.  So, as baffling as it is, especially as we are now talking about a high-grade IH181 (not a mid-grade where you would expect page quality to be less determinative of final sale price), White pagers have under-performed in the GPA-reported market for IH181 in 9.0 recently.     

Edited August 10, 2021 by Pantodude

[MGsimba77]

Sometimes its easier to score a good price like that when it's a private sale. Way better when fees can be avoided. Private sale or not, getting that particular 9.0 for under 10k is cause for celebration!

[MGsimba77]

On 8/9/2021 at 9:28 PM, Pantodude said:

Yes, apparently.  And again, not in the way you would have thought!  Of those three most-recent GPA sales in a one-week span for a 9.0 IH191, the high of $11K on 8/5/21 was for an Off-White despite two Whites (the poster's $9500 and another for $10,500 on 7/31) being in the mix.  Going back more, more of the same:  on 7/25, a White sold for $10423, but on 7/11, an OW/W sold for $10,800, and then we have the high for the year of $15,158 on 7/2, which was for an OW/W!   That was ALL of the August/July data.   Next is June data, but I'm tired.  So, as baffling as it is, especially as we are now talking about a high-grade IH181, White pagers have under-performed in the GPA-reported market for IH181 in 9.0 recently.  Crazy times!   

Frustratingly, all of this information is of limited use absent Clink data. Even CC data takes forever to show on GPA if it even does at all. Although I don't think CC auctions too many high grade 181 slabs but Clink does.