Yet another Hulk 181 thread

[delekkerste]

I usually disagree with our doom and gloom friends, but a 16.5% return yearly is a bit high, don't you think?

 

It's not only optimistic, it's downright preposterous! "People have been telling me for the last 20 - 25 years that comics are dying" is not a good reason to linearly extrapolate the recent past indefinitely into the future. That kind of lazy man's analysis makes me nauseous - it's exactly the same rationale that the writers of "Dow 36,000" and "Dow 100,000" used and we all know what happened after those books came out.

 

There are so many secular factors (greatest wealth creation in the history of mankind, maturation of the comic hobby as manifested by conventions, mail order dealers and the direct market, rich & plentiful baby boomers hit peak nostalgia era, quantum liquidity leap due to the Internet, revaluation of the entire market due to introduction of 3rd party grading) that either will not be repeated in the next 20 years or are currently the norm and thus already priced into current values. Combined with the law of large numbers and the continued decline of new issue sales and young people in the hobby, Hulk #181 NM $2000 is a much more realistic bet than Hulk #181 NM $20,000 in 20 years.

 

Gene

[ninanina]

Gee, I love it when I get a "you gotta be kidding" response to what I think. Consider that a 9.8 has already sold for $18,000.00.

 

Fact is when I've been listening for over 20 years that comics as an art form is doomed, you just eventually let it go in one ear and out the other. For any argument for doom and gloom, there's another one that's positive. Think back to a time when FF #1 could be had for $1000.00 in NM, well actually VF- in today's standards. Seem to remember it sitting at that price for at least a decade, if not longer. Many collectors in the late 70's would have reacted exactly the same way as you and delekkerste just did had I told them then that in 20 odd years, that would be a $20,000.00 comic - well the real NM one anyway.

 

I know there has been a one time jolt from e-bay, and another one time jolt from CGC but what we don't know is what will the other "one time" jolts will be in the future to keep this hobby going. I mean, how could anyone have predicted e-bay and CGC back in the '90's as those "one time jolts" the hobby depends upon. Actually I'm surprised I didn't get any more responses like yours.

 

Ummmm, anybody want to help me out here - or am I the only one who thinks so?

 

Because there is a small chance this could turn into another one of those discussions over the future of the hobby, let's please keep the responses limited to Incredible Hulk 181. So, everyone - stick you're necks out with an opinion.

 

Does anyone think a Hulk 181 will be a $20,000.00 comic in 2023? (I'll be printing these posts and adding them to my collection. And, will check back in 20 years - so be warned.

[FlyingDonut]

Not a chance. The reasons are too myriad to tell, not the least of which is a 16.5% average annual rate of return is staggeringly ridiculous, there will be a significantly smaller pool of prospective buyers, and the number of Hulk 181s will increase. If you are talking a basic raw, unslabbed Hulk 181, absolutely positively not.

[Mushroom]

Sorry Nina. I made a promise to myself that I wouldn't get involved in any more discussions around the death and destruction of the comic industry (it would only give me an ulcer). As I was told once by another forum member the Pollyannas tend to be more silent than the Chicken Littles.

 

As to your question (and I know you are not going to like this) my answer would be no. I think more 9.8's and maybe 9.9's will surface and subsequently drive down the high end price. Having said that, if a 10.0 surfaced then I believe 20k is realistic.

 

[delekkerste]

I know there has been a one time jolt from e-bay, and another one time jolt from CGC but what we don't know is what will the other "one time" jolts will be in the future to keep this hobby going.

 

It really doesn't matter. The "one time jolts" from the Internet and 3rd party grading injected liquidity and speculative fervor into the market on the scale of going from the abacus to the Pentium II. Any future jolts will most likely have far smaller impact on the margin. And, as important as these two specific jolts were, they pale in comparison to the other factors that I mentioned (maturation and then decline of the hobby as a whole, baby boomer nostalgia and unprecedented wealth creation).

 

Not only will comic values be bracing against adverse demographic, cultural and economic headwinds in the next 20 years, but they are simply too high to repeat the past performance you speak of. It is much easier for Hulk #181, for example, to go from $200 to $2,000 than it is to go from $2,000 to $20,000.

 

Just think about the relative valuation of Hulk #181 versus other comics or other assets were it to go to $20,000 (divide the price of, say, a Marvel SA key in 9.4 by the current Hulk #181 NM value and think about how this ratio will be affected if Hulk #181 were to go up 10x in the next 20 years - either the ratio is going to contract hugely or else SA prices will also have to skyrocket. And with SA Marvel keys, the Law of Large Numbers is an even bigger limiting factor, making such a scenario highly improbable at best). And, as important as this book is, it is not nearly as important as the SA keys that preceded it nor nearly as uncommon in high grade.

 

Barring a spell of hyperinflation, this book will not hit $20,000 in the NM grade in 20 years. You can print that out and hold me to that statement in 2023!!

 

Gene

[ninanina]

Three against 1.

 

Getting awfully lonely here.

[Hensley300]

Hmmm. Well, if we are talking current markey price in 9.8 vs price guide NM price (9.4) we are talking apples and oranges. The last 9.8 sell of 181 was market driven. Would another 9.8 meet the same price? If its one of the 2 current 9.8s maybe. Maybe not. I think how many 9.8's show up in the future will have a lot to do with it. I predict several more will pop up. But I also think the status quo price of the book on the market in 9.8 condition has reached a point well above what many collectors would have predicted. I would say 10-15K on average from now on for a 9.8 perhaps more.Especially when you consider the owner of the 9.9 was offerred 50k for his book and he declined.

[Bronty]

A smaller point..

 

I think it's a given that the ratio will shrink.... consider the way the ratio between say AF15 and Action 1 have shrunk over time. What's a NM AF 15 worth? 150K? A NM Action 1? $1m? I'd bet you anything that if you looked in the 1970 guide the ratio between an Action 1 and AF 15 was astronomical.. there are a number of reasons for this and the law of large numbers is certainly one of them, but also there is a generational factor at work here. The average comic collector of today would rather have a AF15 than say, a More Fun 73. Not so thirty years ago.

 

Hulk 181 in true NM will gain on the silver keys over time, I believe, due to this generational factor. $20K in 20 years seems a stretch though as I agree with you that the macro factors don't look good. I'd hate to be pressed to predict a value. I think any number between $2K and $20K has a chance. Which is why I won't be betting today's $2K on it though.

 

Dan

[murph0]

It could be feasible for the book, as long as collecting stays the same and Wolverine is still one of the top characters, to hit maybe 3k in solid NM..But I doubt there's anyway it makes it to 20k. No matter how hot the character is there's just nothing about it that warrants such a high price, if it ever did get to the point where it was around there you'd see pretty much every copy in 9.4 on the census go up for auction.

 

Brian

[Bronty]

$3K in 20 years? You're saying it will lose value once inflation is factored in, then? I would take that bet - damn, it's almost at $3K in today's market. I think that the value will at least hold up, given inflation.

[delekkerste]

What's really scary is if the price of a true NM, unslabbed Hulk #181 were to reach $20,000 in 20 years, how much would the numerous NM+ copies and the few NM/MT quality copies be worth? What about all the third-party slabbed high grade copies? Will the CGC 9.4 copies be fetching $30,000 and the CGC 9.6 copies $50,000 (and this is assuming the slabbed premium shrinks hugely over time)? Will the lucky CGC 9.8 owners be owning 6-figure books?

 

Beyond all the numerous adverse macro factors I have listed before, consider what may perhaps be the biggest obstacle to Hulk #181 rising 10-fold in 20 years: what if Wolverine actually (gasp) drops in popularity by the year 2023? Are you telling me that he can get much more popular than he is now, starring monthly in Uncanny X-Men, New X-Men, Ultimate X-Men and Wolverine, along with numerous guest appearances and what appears to be 3 to 5 mini-series at any given point in time? Not to mention being the feature star of a mega-blockbuster movie like X-Men 2?

 

I sincerely doubt that he can sustain this level of popularity for TWO DECADES, let alone improve upon it. I, for one, am totally washed out on the character and everytime I see another schlock Wolverine mini-series from Marvel (which seems to be about every other month), it makes my blood boil and wish that Hulk #181 had never been printed. It was great when he starred in ONE title each month and was cool because he was an edgy berserker misfit that superhero comics had lacked before. Now he's an overexposed Marvel sell-out and though his popularity may be at all-time highs among long-time, existing collectors, will the BSDs of tomorrow feel the same level of intensity for this character in 2023?

 

Gene

[Bronty]

Easy Gene I'm not disagreeing with you on the whole. You'll note I said I wouldn't bet today's $2K on it. You'll also note I said that any value between $2K and $20K has a shot. I think $2K is as likely as $20K. If pressed to guess, I would say 7K.

 

But who knows what the future brings? Neither you nor any of us has a crystal ball. Who the hell would have predicted a $4500 9.8 Spidey 101?? (one of numerous examples).

 

Dan

[delekkerste]

Easy Gene I'm not disagreeing with you on the whole.

 

Sorry, Dan...my last post was not directed at you in particular! I just hit the reply button on the last post.

 

Gene

[ninanina]

Bronty, like yours the best 'cause you're right - NOBODY KNOWS. Most everything I've heard on assumes two things. First, interest in comics will be a lot worse 20 or 30 years from now and secondly, the kids of tomorrow WILL be as uninterested in comics as they are now. If that's so, then everybody's right and I am wrong. Factoring inflation was pure genius - never thought of that.

[Bronty]

...oh NO offense taken at all. I appreciate the completeness of your argument. You've taken a stance and have supported it - I respect that. I just don't think the future can ever be black and white.

[blowout]

Sorry nina, another no.

You are basing your potential future value around the freakish sale of a 9.8 for $19K which bares no relationship to the market. There is currently only a few 9.8 up graded copies, that will not last.

Supply and demand has to be considered here and part of the reason key Silver/ Gold books are so valuable now is that the high grade supply is just so low.

That is just not the case for Hulk #181.

If you think about this supply/ demand relationship logically then for the price of Hulk #181 to even begin to approach the values of, say, AF #15, then Wolverine would have to become at least 10 times more popular than Spider-Man to balance the Supply/ Demend equation. This is clearly not going to happen.

 

If I had to stick my neck out, my prediction for 20 years time would be around the $5K mark.

[ninanina]

Havok and Murph0, ya' gotta' admit that all those 9.8's, 9.6's, 9.4's, 9.2's, and 9.0's are not going to be 9.8's,9.6's,9.4's,9.2's, and 9.0's in 20 or 30 years. Many of them could go down to 8.5's or.... well you get the idea. So, maybe it's starting to look good 'cause although collectors MAY dwindle, hi-grade copies WILL dwindle. We've got that and the inflation thing. (I really like that inflation thing Bronty - oh, did I already say that?)

[ninanina]

Blowout, my point in my previous post could be a good response to yours. 20 years ago there was plenty of hi-grade silver age just like right now there are plenty of 181's to go around and yeah I know people are being more careful with their comics than they generally were 20 years ago. But, these hi-grades are subject to wear and tear and I do feel it's difficult to predict what will survive -certainly not all.

 

I mean couldn't you're stance on this Hulk be the same as any Silver Age comic 20 or 25 years ago? Particularly Fantastic Four #1? Used to guide at a grand in NM.

[blowout]

That argument doesn't really work as the damage to the high grade Silver books were done before comics became collectable in the mid 60's.

For example there weren't anywhere near as many high grade copies of AF #15 20 years ago as there are of Hulk #181 today.

With the value attached to high grade keys we won't see the available crop of high grade copies dwindle much in the next few decades. either as people are just too careful with them.

[ninanina]

Ok, good point. With fewer NM copies of FF 48 around, does that comic have a better chance of making it to $20,000.00? Been pretty stagnant last few years so maybe it's due for major increases in the next few years.

 

(FF movie coming out, Silver Surfer movie coming out? Sell you're 181's and buy FF48's?) Be interested in a few opinions on this. And if I'm getting off topic, someone give me a . No, I can't be off topic 'cause I'm still talking about 181.

 

Bug, where are you?