Yet another Hulk 181 thread

[joe_collector]

Bruce, I'm not against selling books in the least, but what I think is bizarre are dealers/sellers accusing me of being "profit-oriented", when they're gleefully blowing off CGC books for insane amounts.

 

I was just jabbing back at this totally illogical statement, not condemning the act of selling off your books.

[fantastic_four]

Interesting sig line...

It was the sig line that made me start thinking and ask him why he posts about comics investing so much. What's the origin of "fiddling while stuff is burning"? If memory serves, the phrase originated when a historian noted that the Roman emperor Nero "fiddled while watching Rome burn." He was implying that Nero was so egocentric that he didn't give a [!@#%^&^] about his empire and his people, which didn't fit in with what an emperor should have been doing. Couldn't understand why CI would liken himself to Nero--he doesn't just stand and watch, he tries to warn people not to lose their cash.

 

What I'm STILL not getting is that he's CONTINUING to give advice to people IN THIS THREAD who have made hundreds, thousands, and even tens of thousands of dollars off of comics. It's like somebody standing outside of a strip mall with a megaphone telling all the store owners "90% of all businesses fail in their first year!!!" Well, yea, thanks for the advice...I guess it's better to never even give it a shot since the odds are against success? By the way--since CI first started complaining about the upcoming market crash, several people in this thread bought--DURING his warnings--and flipped enough comics and made enough profit to buy most people's entire collections.

 

I'm not saying CI should be flipping; I don't flip myself. Not yet, anyway; it doesn't seem like as much fun as just buying. But flipping is one of the best ways I can think of to grow my collection more quickly, so I'm sure I'll start doing it sometime soon. What I don't get is why does CI keep telling successful flippers that they're gonna burn?

 

Here's a hypothesis--he's an extreme leftist, perhaps almost even a Marxist or communist. He's disillusioned with capitalism, and he takes it out on the comics capitalists in the forums for participating in the "rape of consumers." I figure that may be the biggest reason that he doesn't flip himself--it's against his morals and politics. I got that impression from some of his self-righteousness regarding people buying original owner collections during that Chuck Rozanski/Mile High thread.

 

So why would CI say he would fiddle while the CGC market burns when he's trying to protect people from getting caught up in the fire? Because the idea of a free market burning appeals to the socialist in him. I'm not trying to start a McCarthy hearing here; I'm pretty far to the left myself and have quite a few problems with pure laissez-faire economics. I can identify with his desire not to see people screwed over. But I'm not bummed out on capitalism like I used to be; we're all just trying to make a living here. As long as you practice with morals and ethics, selling CGC comics isn't the evil he appears to believe it is.

 

If he thinks that capitalist malaise doesn't contribute to the source of his righteousness...then I'm back to the possibility that he's just arrogant and can't leave it alone.

[joe_collector]

You're off-base on most of your comments (as in, I'm preaching to the flippees, not the flippers), but you do make a good point about Nero.

 

I guess I'll just tune up the old violin and wait.

[FlyingDonut]

I think the problem then, is that most everybody on this board falls into the "flipper" category. Believe me, nobody here is a sheep. Some people might LIKE sheep but everybody here knows what they're doing.

 

And btw, Bruce - thanks for the kind words, but I don't do this solely for a living. It makes a nice side business that generates a nice chunk of change, but I don't think I could do it full time.

[joe_collector]

Trust me, there are a lot of lurkers here checking out the scoop. If they want to spend their cash, then so be it, just do so with both eyes open.

[BronzeBruce13]

Dooooooh (dagnabit*)

 

My bad... I thought for sure you were a full-timer. What else do you do?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*proclaimed property/trademark of POV, even though BB13 used it too his whole life. If the Simpsons never emerged...it would have been used in place of "dooooooh" all the time

[FlyingDonut]

I'm a proposal manager from 830-6. Dad/husband from 630-10. Then I turn into Comic Guy from 10 - whenever. Sleep? I can sleep when I'm dead!

 

Probably 50 or so hours a week at the "real" job, 50-60 at the "part time fun job".

[LordRahl]

O.K. there will be a crash of ultra HG CGC books, even silver age key books. There was a crash in the 90's, it will happen again, look at the stock market, coin market, card market, yada yada yada. So it would follow that after the crash prices will be depressed for a while and eventually for one reason or another will make a comeback. All that means is that some of us will have another oppurtunity to pull a Greggy:) I'm sure JC will tell me why this won't happen. JC?

[joe_collector]

You've pretty well spelled it out, though I'm unsure of whether there will a recovery of the scope of previous crashes.

 

Here's the way I see it happening, in no particular order:

 

1) CGC values continue to fade on all but the most key of ultra-key issues.

 

2) Demand falls as more "investors" get the shaft when reselling.

 

3) Heritage no longer finds it feasible to hold their CGC auctions, leaving affluent investors without a fake "stock market" and are forced to get their hands dirty on EBay.

 

4) Several Marvel movies tank bad and the Hollywood fad is over.

 

5) CGC submissions fall, while grading fees spike.

 

6) New comics sales drop, and Bill Jemas goes back to work for Fleer.

 

7) Speculators who need the capital flood the market, looking to cash out before the lights go off, driving prices lower.

 

8) Without the mystique of a "hot investment", the fly-by-night investors flee the market, and since most collectors do not buy CGC copies, selling CGC 9.8 copies for $10K is a fairy tale from a bygone age.

 

9) Aiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

10) Arrrgghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

Now whether the market can recover after this is a question even I won't make a prediction on.

[jordanabigail]

Sounds exactly like my hours

 

I'm getting to this forum late...and I have to admit that JC and Gene present very compelling views about a massive correction. And after meeting Gene, I know he's one smart cookie

 

HOWEVER:

 

I think we are in a much different time right now. Will a Marvel movie bomb at the box office anytime soon? No. And I'd be my wife on that one. Just look at how smart Marvel has been and look at what is coming out and you'll realize that X2 and the Hulk won't bomb at all and actually will be massive hits. After those two movies, the next big Marvel flick is Spidey 2 and after that we get a number of "much lower budget" movies like Punisher, Iron Fist, Shang Chi, etc...and even if those movies don't perform well at the box office, they won't persuade the studios to stop making the big budget tentpole movies like Iron Man, FF, Hulk 2, X3, etc...My point on this one is that as long as these movies do well at the box office (which I foresee happening for at least another 2 to 3 years), the comic book industry will generate a ton of positive buzz and new collectors will enter the marketplace.

 

I agree that the comic book market for new books is not doing that well. However, sales are up vs. a couple years ago, and Marvel is doing all they can to increase sales and bring in new readers. Free Comic Book Day is one way of doing that. And even if "paper" comics go the way of the dinosaur, there will always be collectors who want to own the back issues.

 

Will CGC prices come down? Definitely. They are right now. Check out the last couple of sales for DD 168, CGC 9.6. But there is no way that book will sell for the "rock bottom" prices you think it will.

 

And back to the subject of investor/collector/flipper/etc...I grew up reading Marvel comics. I'd spend hours and hours locked up in my room reading every single title I could afford. I even got them sent to me in the mail all beat up and would read them over and over and over again. And now that I'm making a bit of $$, I want to own those books again in the best possible condition I can afford. And I'll gladly pay more for a raw version to re-read again, but this time take more care towards not drooling over the book while I'm reading it AND I have no problem buying a book and then selling it for a profit if that money will help me to buy a better book. I consider myself a true collector of comics - and more often than not will pay whatever amount to own a book I love (just ask half the forum members about that ...As long as there are guys/gals like myself...this CGC market will contine to expand and do well...

 

Now...how many of you are as psyched as I am to see X2 in a couple weeks?!?! Followed by Matrix 2 and then Hulk? Going to be an awesome summer!!!!!!

[delekkerste]

Now whether the market can recover after this is a question even I won't make a prediction on.

 

I'll brave the slings and arrows and say "no". Should we get the deeper shake-out in the market for graded books that you envision (which I, too, believe is inevitable, though I won't hazard a guess on pinpointing the timing), I think the hobby will suffer a severe set-back which it may never fully recover from (especially since, unfortunately, I do believe the entire comic book medium is in a long-term secular decline). Sure, the hobby will still go on and I'm sure the true fanboys and collectors will still enjoy it (it just won't be as fun or profitable as it used to be with fewer people and less money involved). However, when the speculative craze finally does end, I believe a lot of people will have been burned and will leave the hobby, much as they did in the 1990s. A lot of these people came back to the hobby with the advent of CGC and the Internet, but if these people are shaken out again, I doubt they'll be back for a Round 3 of disappointments. And, unfortunately, we know that there are not enough young collectors coming up through the ranks to take their places should this occur.

 

One poster wagers that "it would follow that after the crash prices will be depressed for a while and eventually for one reason or another will make a comeback." I'm not saying that it can't or definitely won't, but I am opposed to presuming that that all setbacks are temporary since the longer-term trend is always up. When the Roman Empire collapsed, I'm sure the similar thinkers of the age were probably thinking, "Oh, it'll come back one day, for one reason or another." Sometimes it's just a fact of life that permanent and secular change does occur (as opposed to temporary cyclical fluctuations).

 

Gene

[blowout]

Now...how many of you are as psyched as I am to see X2 in a couple weeks?!?! Followed by Matrix 2 and then Hulk? Going to be an awesome summer!!!!!!

 

You are right there. Some great movies on the way.

 

I pretty much agree with your post as far as collecting/ the market goes. Your collecting story is the same as mine and I'm sure many others.

What you havn't factored into what you are saying is what will happen to the CGC market when the investors leave, as they innevitably will as they have no attachment to the books themselves like a fan does. The exodus of these CGC investors will soften prices for sure. The hard thing to do is to predict how much of the current market is made up of investors rather than collectors.

[Illiterati-migration]

Wait, wait, wait... BILL JEMAS IS GOING TO LEAVE?!?!?!?!? BOOYA!!!!!!!!!

 

Gray skies are gonna clear up... put on a happy faaace...

[joe_collector]

>>A lot of these people came back to the hobby with the advent of CGC and the Internet...

 

This one comment is an important one, especially as so many forums members are in the same boat. I admit dropping new comics after X-Men 1, X-Force 1, Bloodshot 1, etc. but I kept up with the back issues, hitting shows, trading and later buying on EBay.

 

Once the CGC phenomenon started up, collecting comics immediately became a whole lot sexier, and it was fun to see the bizarro prices being paid, and highly profitable to sell off your high-grade comics. It was suddenly hip to buy and sell comics, and the smell of easy cash brought collectors back in droves.

 

It was the same in the early-90's, where speculation was rampant and many collectors came back to the fold. The smell of money, hot comics and the media brought them back, and due to the influx of cash, it was incredibly easy to make money at shows or private deals, assuming you bought the right issues in bulk. The Donut Man's infamous "Valiant for Silver" windfall illustrates this quite well. These were veteran Silver Age collectors hooked by the smell of money and promise of riches.

 

When prices crashed and this "new/old blood" left in the mid-90's Crash, it nearly killed the back issue market. Those who suddenly popped back into collecting 2-4 years ago should see the obvious similarities, and understand they are no different than the ones who were lured back in 1989-91, and I can't see many staying when the crepe really hits the fan.

[Aman619]

Now whether the market can recover after this is a question even I won't make a prediction on.

 

I'll brave the slings and arrows and say "no"

 

I dont agree. I was saying throughout the late 90s that there was at least one more speculator boom in store for comics. It was so dead it didnt sound likely---but, here it is. Select Marvels titles are hot and actually selling out in stores (even factoring in the Jemas no-reprint policy its pretty amazing--who woulda figured that would ever happen again?) Im aware that sales figures are much lower than before but the excitement is back in the stores with recent back issues ont he walls for up to $35 (Hulk#34)

 

I based my opinion mostly as a rejection of the widely held perception that the internet and videogames had killed the comic book. As we have seen, predictions of the wired revolution killing print (new media replacing old media) were exaggerated by at least ten years, maybe more. SO it seemed likely that sometime before lets say 2020 (or whenever the internet WILL replace every other medium), memories being short, comics would get another shot to everyone get worked up and throw good money after bad again like the 90s

 

SO, to me, that proves that the OBVIOUS doesnt always play out to the worst case scenario. So today-- I do not agree that the coming hard correction in CGC prices will be a game-over crash that kills the comic market. Prices will end up higher than they were before CGC on keys, but closer to the usual Overstreet multiples than today's craziness. but commons will shrink back to their $80 Guide levels as opposed to the $600 or whatever they sell for in 9.6. AND, after a while, it will get back on track. There will still be enough of us for 10-20 (30) years who want high grade comics.

 

SOONER OR LATER, comics collecting will peter out, but it won't disappear in a crash of plastic holders. I t wont die all at once, but fade away, until just the most essential keys that resonate with popular culture are all that left with value: first appearances of the characters that have become household names. But to me, thats 50 years away when the good ol' 20th century and all its quaint notions are no more relevent to people then than the Civil War is to most people today.

 

Try this, make a list of all the stuff you know about the 1800s. Sounds like history class? Thats how we will look by then. Well this last part may be a stretch, but I think you get the idea.

[Bronty]

Good call, I totally agree.

[blowout]

SOONER OR LATER, comics collecting will peter out, but it won't disappear in a crash of plastic holders. I t wont die all at once, but fade away, until just the most essential keys that resonate with popular culture are all that left with value: first appearances of the characters that have become household names.

 

Well put indeed. The comic hobby has a few years left in it yet!

[davidking623]

 

 

Now...how many of you are as psyched as I am to see X2 in a couple weeks?!?! Followed by Matrix 2 and then Hulk? Going to be an awesome summer!!!!!!

 

 

Let us not forget about terminator 3 as JC lets us know ILL BE BACK.

 

 

Davidking623

 

[Rickdogg]

Seeing all of these puppies opening night unless I work. Screw it...i'm calling in sick

[comicmankev]

My favorite line from this auction Hulk 180 is:

Given a VG+ rating and an estimated GCG rating around 8.6+