ASM 300 heating up 8 8

[Jesse-Lee]

CovrPrice is listing a $20,138 sale of a 9.8 Blue Newsstand on 10/1, and it was in a recent ComicTom video too, but I can't find out where it was supposedly sold. Any news?

[jjonahjameson11]

On 10/18/2021 at 12:49 PM, Jesse-Lee said:

CovrPrice is listing a $20,138 sale of a 9.8 Blue Newsstand on 10/1, and it was in a recent ComicTom video too, but I can't find out where it was supposedly sold. Any news?

I think it sold at CLINK

 

[BigLeagueCHEW]

Another just popped up 

Edited October 24, 2021 by BigLeagueCHEW

[MAR1979]

On 10/24/2021 at 12:14 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

Another just pooped up 

Pooped is right, expect to see more and more of these appear like brown trouts being release into the wild.

Edit: I see BigLeagueCHEW corrected the spelling in the post I quoted. Rendering this post significantly less humorous.

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by MAR1979

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/24/2021 at 11:26 AM, MAR1979 said:

Pooped is right, expect to see more and more are more of these appear like brown trouts being release into the wild.

yeah I think it has to do with the movie coming out. will see if it sells. Last one at almost 20K, curious if there will be a OBO 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 10/24/2021 at 12:14 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

Another just popped up 

So many newsstand copies listed on EBay right now from 5.5 to 9.8

That 20k sale flushed out a bundle 

Edited October 25, 2021 by THE_BEYONDER

[Randall Dowling]

Man, the number of books I'd rather have for 20k is unbelievably long.  

This thing is really out there right now.  This is not buying time, this is selling time.  Lock in your gains and get out.  Having watched this sort of thing play out in the early 90s, I can tell you that once the first few speculators start selling their multitude of copies, the price drops really, really fast.  You can try and weather the storm, but it may take 20 or 30 more years to get back to this place, if it ever does.  

[Joshua33]

On 10/24/2021 at 9:57 PM, Randall Dowling said:

Man, the number of books I'd rather have for 20k is unbelievably long.  

This thing is really out there right now.  This is not buying time, this is selling time.  Lock in your gains and get out.  Having watched this sort of thing play out in the early 90s, I can tell you that once the first few speculators start selling their multitude of copies, the price drops really, really fast.  You can try and weather the storm, but it may take 20 or 30 more years to get back to this place, if it ever does.  

The amount of people still holding and buying is astonishing. The band stopped playing last year and these folks still be dancing like it's 1999. Jordan Belfort must be pitching common modern and copper Marvel books as the next large store of wealth. This is about to be so painful for so many... it literally saddens me.

[lou_fine]

On 10/17/2021 at 3:10 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Oh, wow!  That’s a brutal result!

I feel badly for the consignor 

Not if the consignor's too busy dancing up a storm because they only had to pay cover price less the standard discount for his copy of Spidey 300 back then.    

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/24/2021 at 9:57 PM, Randall Dowling said:

Man, the number of books I'd rather have for 20k is unbelievably long.  

This thing is really out there right now.  This is not buying time, this is selling time.  Lock in your gains and get out.  Having watched this sort of thing play out in the early 90s, I can tell you that once the first few speculators start selling their multitude of copies, the price drops really, really fast.  You can try and weather the storm, but it may take 20 or 30 more years to get back to this place, if it ever does.  

Exactly why I don't own a copy. But, it's better for us anyway, everyone focuses on buying Venom which leaves everything else open for us 

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/24/2021 at 9:57 PM, Randall Dowling said:

Man, the number of books I'd rather have for 20k is unbelievably long.  

This thing is really out there right now.  This is not buying time, this is selling time.  Lock in your gains and get out.  Having watched this sort of thing play out in the early 90s, I can tell you that once the first few speculators start selling their multitude of copies, the price drops really, really fast.  You can try and weather the storm, but it may take 20 or 30 more years to get back to this place, if it ever does.  

Check out the January 7th C-Link auctions for multiple 9.8 copies for sale.

194 is a book way over priced too. At 400+ in 9.8, it was getting 5K+ earlier in the year, now, a boardie just sold one for a little over 4K 

238 has been up and down as well 2K to 5K range. Very risky. 

[valiantman]

A reasonable estimate for the number of CGC graded 9.8 newsstand Amazing Spider-Man #300 is around 33.  Sure, more can be graded anytime, but that's after 20+ years of CGC grading.

How many collectors have multiple CGC 9.8 newsstands of ASM #300 to "lock in the gains and get out"?  There are about 33... total.

The total number of CGC graded 9.4+9.6+9.8 newsstands for Amazing Spider-Man #300 is hundreds less than the number of CGC 9.8 ASM #300 direct editions alone.

While all copies of ASM #300 spent decades as "no difference", the market is quickly seeing that these are almost like two completely different books when it comes to (high grade) slabbed copies/quantities.

Edited October 25, 2021 by valiantman

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/25/2021 at 11:35 AM, valiantman said:

A reasonable estimate for the number of CGC graded 9.8 newsstand Amazing Spider-Man #300 is around 33.  Sure, more can be graded anytime, but that's after 20+ years of CGC grading.

How many collectors have multiple CGC 9.8 newsstands of ASM #300 to "lock in the gains and get out"?  There are about 33... total.

The total number of CGC graded 9.4+9.6+9.8 newsstands for Amazing Spider-Man #300 is hundreds less than the number of CGC 9.8 ASM #300 direct editions alone.

While all copies of ASM #300 spent decades as "no difference", the market is quickly seeing that these are almost like two completely different books when it comes to (high grade) slabbed copies/quantities.

Any data on the Mint 9.9's if it wasn't already asked? How many do you think, if any, are Newsstands?

[Randall Dowling]

On 10/25/2021 at 1:35 PM, valiantman said:

A reasonable estimate for the number of CGC graded 9.8 newsstand Amazing Spider-Man #300 is around 33.  Sure, more can be graded anytime, but that's after 20+ years of CGC grading.

How many collectors have multiple CGC 9.8 newsstands of ASM #300 to "lock in the gains and get out"?  There are about 33... total.

The total number of CGC graded 9.4+9.6+9.8 newsstands for Amazing Spider-Man #300 is hundreds less than the number of CGC 9.8 ASM #300 direct editions alone.

While all copies of ASM #300 spent decades as "no difference", the market is quickly seeing that these are almost like two completely different books when it comes to (high grade) slabbed copies/quantities.

Respectfully, Greg, I disagree with your analysis.  Claiming scarcity based upon the intersection of 2 variables (newsstand & 9.8) is the end stage of hyper speculation.  The fact is there are (according to your always excellent charts) over 400 newsstand editions in 9.6 or better.  That number goes up well over a thousand for 9.4 or better.  And there are over 10,000 certified copies in 9.4 or better.  Any scarcity one perceives for this book is either artificial or imagined.

I can't think of anyone else that has your skills at graphic data presentation in collecting comics.  But I think you're bullishness is misplaced.  My recommendation is to get out while you can.  

I know we disagree about this and that's fine.  I hope you don't get burned.

[MAR1979]

On 10/25/2021 at 2:35 PM, valiantman said:

A reasonable estimate for the number of CGC graded 9.8 newsstand Amazing Spider-Man #300 is around 33.  Sure, more can be graded anytime, but that's after 20+ years of CGC grading.

How many collectors have multiple CGC 9.8 newsstands of ASM #300 to "lock in the gains and get out"?  There are about 33... total.

The total number of CGC graded 9.4+9.6+9.8 newsstands for Amazing Spider-Man #300 is hundreds less than the number of CGC 9.8 ASM #300 direct editions alone.

While all copies of ASM #300 spent decades as "no difference", the market is quickly seeing that these are almost like two completely different books when it comes to (high grade) slabbed copies/quantities.

Hi,

You mentioned earlier that the newsstand data was/is not tracked by CGC from 1999-2020. The figure of 33 how exactly is that derived? Also do you believe it to be accurate and complete data OR merely represents a bare minimum of those in a CGC 9.8 slab?

Edited October 25, 2021 by MAR1979

[MAR1979]

On 10/25/2021 at 12:57 AM, Randall Dowling said:

Man, the number of books I'd rather have for 20k is unbelievably long.  

This thing is really out there right now.  This is not buying time, this is selling time.  Lock in your gains and get out.  Having watched this sort of thing play out in the early 90s, I can tell you that once the first few speculators start selling their multitude of copies, the price drops really, really fast.  You can try and weather the storm, but it may take 20 or 30 more years to get back to this place, if it ever does.  

I do agree with what you have mentioned. I'd also like to add the Social Media crowd has virtually no attention span so I am surprised their interest with Comics (and trading cards) has lasted this long.

Still books like ASM 300,361,362 , Star Wars 42, insert name of high population hot book here, etc are outliers in that the CGC 9.8/9.6/9.4 pops are so very high and seeming growing exponentially each month.  There are still many quality investments that may look less "sexy" now but may not give up their gains. Won't mention any examples for those .   I don't like my use of the word investments in the last sentence how about opportunities instead.

Of course Keynes statement still applies! ; Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by MAR1979

[valiantman]

On 10/25/2021 at 4:01 PM, Randall Dowling said:

Respectfully, Greg, I disagree with your analysis.  Claiming scarcity based upon the intersection of 2 variables (newsstand & 9.8) is the end stage of hyper speculation.  The fact is there are (according to your always excellent charts) over 400 newsstand editions in 9.6 or better.  That number goes up well over a thousand for 9.4 or better.  And there are over 10,000 certified copies in 9.4 or better.  Any scarcity one perceives for this book is either artificial or imagined.

I can't think of anyone else that has your skills at graphic data presentation in collecting comics.  But I think you're bullishness is misplaced.  My recommendation is to get out while you can.  

I know we disagree about this and that's fine.  I hope you don't get burned.

I'm not claiming scarcity, I'm claiming relative difficulty.  Amazing Spider-Man #300 is a book that is in demand, so the question is what prices are reasonable based on the relative difficulty?

Finding a $6,600 CGC 9.8 direct edition when there are 1,400+ available is quite simple.  Finding 50 of them is pretty easy... if you have the money, it might take a few months.

Finding a CGC 9.8 newsstand edition of the exact same comic, when only about 33 exist might be easy (assuming you have $20,000+ to spend), but try finding 5 of them. 

What if 5 people want one?  There are 3 sales on GPAnalysis in two years.  Comiclink doesn't exactly have a dozen for sale either.  What if 50 people want one?

If you happen to know of a way to manufacture CGC 9.8 ASM #300 newsstands and can "get out while you can", then jump on it.  There's retirement money waiting for you.  I don't think you do.

In sportscards, there are dozens of different cards that sell for $50,000+ for 100 or 200 copies each for cards of players since 2000.  That's tens of millions of dollars for very modern sportscards.

What's 33 copies of a major Marvel character (who isn't going to retire or get injured) from the 1980s compared to that? 

Even at $30,000 each, the whole CGC 9.8 newsstand supply of ASM #300 would still be under a million bucks.

Bullish isn't just reasonable, it's inevitable.  I'm not an owner of a 9.8 newsstand, so this is an outsider's analysis where I've got nothing riding on it.

Edited October 25, 2021 by valiantman

[valiantman]

On 10/25/2021 at 4:22 PM, MAR1979 said:

Hi,

You mentioned earlier that the newsstand data was/is not tracked by CGC from 1999-2020. The figure of 33 how exactly is that derived? Also do you believe it to be accurate and complete data OR merely represents a bare minimum of those in a CGC 9.8 slab?

The number is derived from the market sales recorded on GPAnalysis.com.  GPAnalysis.com has been separating direct edition and newsstand for ASM #300 for a few years.  We can see the relative frequency of newsstand and direct editions sold in the market across all grades.  Over the past 12 months, there have been 2 copies of CGC 9.8 newsstand ASM #300 with recorded sales.  In the same timeframe, there have been 87 copies of CGC 9.8 direct editions sold.  That's 2.2% newsstand.

Since there are 1,479 CGC graded 9.8s on the CGC Census, at 2.2%, that would be 32.5 newsstand copies.  That's the source of the 33 estimate.  The same can be done for 9.6, 9.4, etc.

I'm sure people have all kinds of anecdotes they'd prefer to use, but putting actual data toward the problem, we get an answer.  It's an estimate, but the chart is based on nearly 2,000 sales. 

You can't sample 27,000 (total ASM #300 CGC Census) of something 2,000 separate times/sales without getting a strong correlation to reality.

Believe it or not, these newsstand estimate may be too high.  In the case of Spawn #9, CGC does separate direct editions and newsstands on the CGC Census, and the newsstands are being bought/sold about 150% more often than chance would dictate compared to the actual CGC Census for Spawn #9 newsstand. 

It's entirely possible that people are cashing out on their newsstands lately and skewing the percentage of newsstand sales up.  Over time, the percentages of newsstand sales on ASM #300 may be even lower than the previous 12 months, since the same timeframe for Spawn #9 newsstand sales (one that we can test) actually outnumber the predicted percentages on the Spawn #9 newsstand census.

Edited October 25, 2021 by valiantman

[MAR1979]

On 10/25/2021 at 6:58 PM, valiantman said:

The number is derived from the market sales recorded on GPAnalysis.com.  GPAnalysis.com has been separating direct edition and newsstand for ASM #300 for a few years.  We can see the relative frequency of newsstand and direct editions coming to market across all grades.  Over the past 12 months, there have been 2 copies of CGC 9.8 newsstand ASM #300 with recorded sales.  In the same timeframe, there have been 87 copies of CGC 9.8 direct editions sold.  That's 2.2%.

Since there are 1,479 CGC graded 9.8s, at 2.2%, that would be 32.5 newsstand copies.  That's the source of the 33 estimate.  The same can be done for 9.6, 9.4, etc.

I'm sure people have all kinds of anecdotes they'd prefer to use, but putting actual data toward the problem, we get an answer.  It's an estimate, but the chart is based on nearly 2,000 sales.  You can't sample 27,000 of something 2,000 times without getting a strong correlation to reality.

Let's see how it pans out over the next year or 2 as more an more folks send them in when they see the going rate.

[Randall Dowling]

On 10/25/2021 at 5:43 PM, valiantman said:

Bullish isn't just reasonable, it's inevitable. 

Now you sound like Thanos!