Official TMNT Speculation Thread 14 14

[MAR1979]

On 3/14/2024 at 6:58 AM, GM8 said:

Three new books for sale on Heritage. 

9.8 - this one last sold for $250K at Comic Connect on 10/13/21 by my records.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/modern-age-1980-present-/alternative-underground/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-1-mirage-studios-1984-cgc-nm-mt-98-white-pages/a/7369-91027.s?type=wantlistid-1008803!creatorid-cewl!linkclicked-lotlink!emailid-03142024-023004.186AM-3119817-1008803!itemid-7369_117004!wlem

 

My WAG prediction $129K+Heritages Vig  , approx 154K Total.

 

On 3/14/2024 at 6:58 AM, GM8 said:

9.6 (maybe you can buy this one on the cheap, press and re-submit to CGC? Maybe it's already been done?)

https://comics.ha.com/itm/modern-age-1980-present-/alternative-underground/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-1-mirage-studios-1984-cgc-nm-96-white-pages/a/7369-91180.s?type=wantlistid-1008803!creatorid-cewl!linkclicked-lotlink!emailid-03142024-023004.186AM-3119817-1008803!itemid-7369_101013!wlem

I'm seeing some color rubbing and loss.  Weak-ish 9.6 IMHO.

Edited March 14 by MAR1979

[GM8]

A couple more high-grade TMNT #1 sales ended yesterday at CC. Most notable was this $120K sale of a 9.8 SS with Kevin Eastman's signature from 2022 No buyer's premium was noted, so this is a 12K or 9% drop from the previous blue label sale on 1/11/24. There are very few yellow label 9.8's so I compare to the last blue label. This copy is new to my database so it was likely sitting in someone's collection for a while looking nice and new. I have to be honest, I wouldn't have gotten his signature on such a pristine book! It was either daring by the owner or could have been a 5-digit loss had KE accidentally done anything to the book!

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/1036280#description

This 9.0 sold for $20,367 (including 15% buyer's premium), which is a $2K or 11% increase from the previous sale last year of another blue label on 4/1/23 for $18K. 

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/946585

[Hulksdaddy1]

On 3/21/2024 at 7:32 AM, GM8 said:

A couple more high-grade TMNT #1 sales ended yesterday at CC. Most notable was this $120K sale of a 9.8 SS with Kevin Eastman's signature from 2022 No buyer's premium was noted, so this is a 12K or 9% drop from the previous blue label sale on 1/11/24. There are very few yellow label 9.8's so I compare to the last blue label. This copy is new to my database so it was likely sitting in someone's collection for a while looking nice and new. I have to be honest, I wouldn't have gotten his signature on such a pristine book! It was either daring by the owner or could have been a 5-digit loss had KE accidentally done anything to the book!

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/1036280#description

This 9.0 sold for $20,367 (including 15% buyer's premium), which is a $2K or 11% increase from the previous sale last year of another blue label on 4/1/23 for $18K. 

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/946585

Terrible sig placement on that 9.8. Should only ever be signed in the black.

[Spiderturtle]

On 3/21/2024 at 4:32 AM, GM8 said:

A couple more high-grade TMNT #1 sales ended yesterday at CC. Most notable was this $120K sale of a 9.8 SS with Kevin Eastman's signature from 2022 No buyer's premium was noted, so this is a 12K or 9% drop from the previous blue label sale on 1/11/24. There are very few yellow label 9.8's so I compare to the last blue label. This copy is new to my database so it was likely sitting in someone's collection for a while looking nice and new. I have to be honest, I wouldn't have gotten his signature on such a pristine book! It was either daring by the owner or could have been a 5-digit loss had KE accidentally done anything to the book!

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/1036280#description

This 9.0 sold for $20,367 (including 15% buyer's premium), which is a $2K or 11% increase from the previous sale last year of another blue label on 4/1/23 for $18K. 

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/946585

They should just list the final price for the buyer as $20,367

[BeardedBubba]

A 9.8 just ended on Heritage Live auction for $105,000 ($126,000 with Buyers Premium).  That is $6,000 less than the one that went for $132,000 back on January 11th.  

Edited April 4 by BeardedBubba

[Hulksdaddy1]

On 4/4/2024 at 2:14 PM, BeardedBubba said:

A 9.8 just ended on Heritage Live auction for $105,000 ($126,000 with Buyers Premium).  That is $6,000 less than the one that went for $132,000 back on January 11th.  

Still a great price. Way more than 2019. I ignore pricing during the Blip. 

[BeardedBubba]

On 4/4/2024 at 2:27 PM, Hulksdaddy1 said:

Still a great price. Way more than 2019. I ignore pricing during the Blip. 

Yeah it's hard to complain about the price being 6 figures.  There's a 9.6, 9.4, and 9.2 SS ending later.  I'm very curious about those.

[BeardedBubba]

So what’s the deal with Heritage?  I feel like their TMNT auctions have been going low and screwing up the FMV.  A 9.0 just sold on ComicConnect for $20k.  A 9.2 signature series finished at $16,800 on Heritage today and that includes the 20% premium.  What do you all think?

[Hulksdaddy1]

On 4/4/2024 at 6:32 PM, BeardedBubba said:

So what’s the deal with Heritage?  I feel like their TMNT auctions have been going low and screwing up the FMV.  A 9.0 just sold on ComicConnect for $20k.  A 9.2 signature series finished at $16,800 on Heritage today and that includes the 20% premium.  What do you all think?

From my experience, Heritage has never been a good place to sell TMNT. Not sure why, but their outcomes always seem low.

[BeardedBubba]

On 4/4/2024 at 6:36 PM, Hulksdaddy1 said:

From my experience, Heritage has never been a good place to sell TMNT. Not sure why, but their outcomes always seem low.

Interesting.  I’ve never noticed before.  So maybe a good place to buy then even with the buyers premium.  I’ve been trying to sell my 9.2 to downgrade since I don’t need a copy that high.  But the last two 9.2s sold on Heritage have kind of tanked the price.

[Hulksdaddy1]

On 4/4/2024 at 6:56 PM, BeardedBubba said:

Interesting.  I’ve never noticed before.  So maybe a good place to buy then even with the buyers premium.  I’ve been trying to sell my 9.2 to downgrade since I don’t need a copy that high.  But the last two 9.2s sold on Heritage have kind of tanked the price.

Comicconnect seems to do well with them.

[jaybuck43]

On 4/4/2024 at 7:07 PM, Hulksdaddy1 said:

Comicconnect seems to do well with them.

Comicconnect and comic link always seem to do better with copper than heritage. I think the people watching heritage are more golden and silver age (this auction in particular) then bronze and copper.

[GM8]

On 4/4/2024 at 6:32 PM, BeardedBubba said:

So what’s the deal with Heritage?  I feel like their TMNT auctions have been going low and screwing up the FMV.  A 9.0 just sold on ComicConnect for $20k.  A 9.2 signature series finished at $16,800 on Heritage today and that includes the 20% premium.  What do you all think?

The last sale I have was 3/20/24 at Comic Connect for $120,000 which would mean this most recent 4/4/24 sale of the 9.8 for $126K was a 5% increase.

For the 9.4, the last sale I have was on 11/19/23 at Heritage also for $22.2K (OW/W pages), which translates to a 8% bump from the most recent sale of $24K above. Although you could argue W pages is probably worth the difference.

For the 9.6, my most recent sale was also 11/19/23 (also Heritage) for $38.4K, which would translate to a decline in our most recent sale of $37.2 of 3.1%.

Prices seem to be stabilizing with these small movements percentage-wise.

[GM8]

On 4/4/2024 at 6:36 PM, Hulksdaddy1 said:

From my experience, Heritage has never been a good place to sell TMNT. Not sure why, but their outcomes always seem low.

My view on it was the opposite, Heritage seemed to get a premium on the real top-tier books. My opinion changed when I sold my 9.6 there and it sold for $22K less than a book that hammered 2 weeks later at Comic Connect!

In looking back at 9.8's only, the price fluctuates at both sites. I can't see a clear advantage.

[BeardedBubba]

On 4/9/2024 at 5:54 PM, GM8 said:

My view on it was the opposite, Heritage seemed to get a premium on the real top-tier books. My opinion changed when I sold my 9.6 there and it sold for $22K less than a book that hammered 2 weeks later at Comic Connect!

In looking back at 9.8's only, the price fluctuates at both sites. I can't see a clear advantage.

9.8s seem to be in the low $100k area no matter the site.  But the grades lower than that seem to vary depending on where they're being auctioned.  Heritage just doesn't seem like a good place to send a high grade TMNT #1 that isn't a 9.8.  Prices are down from the pandemic pump but Heritage prices seem to be dragging them even lower.