Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Gregd]

On 9/25/2021 at 10:45 AM, rsouxlja7 said:

Pretty funny reading post histories of some of the doomers here and seeing they've been calling for a comic market crash for nearly 3 years or more depending on how far back into their post histories I was bored enough to read 

Yes! As I said in another post, I listened back then and was scared to buy major keys when I could have afforded to. Now I am minor keys only (and even now I wish I bought some of the big stuff I waited on (X-men 4, FF48, etc). 

[lizards2]

On 9/25/2021 at 7:45 AM, rsouxlja7 said:

Pretty funny reading post histories of some of the doomers here and seeing they've been calling for a comic market crash for nearly 3 years or more depending on how far back into their post histories I was bored enough to read 

A lot of us old timers remember the past.

I can't see current prices sustaining themselves, but what do I know.

I remain hopeful of a crash, so that I can collect with vigor again

[Darthbryan]

On 9/25/2021 at 11:26 AM, lizards2 said:

A lot of us old timers remember the past.

I can't see current prices sustaining themselves, but what do I know.

I remain hopeful of a crash, so that I can collect with vigor again

There is an oversupply that is on the horizon.  With CGC backed up for months and months that means people emptied the short boxes and sent what are likely to be desirable keys into CGC with hopes of cashing out.  Problem is they’ve now missed their window.  The next 12 months will be interesting, as those books hit mailboxes and start finding their way to market.  

[MetalPSI]

On 9/25/2021 at 3:40 PM, Darthbryan said:

There is an oversupply that is on the horizon.  With CGC backed up for months and months that means people emptied the short boxes and sent what are likely to be desirable keys into CGC with hopes of cashing out.  Problem is they’ve now missed their window.  The next 12 months will be interesting, as those books hit mailboxes and start finding their way to market.  

Well said

[WolverineX]

On 9/25/2021 at 5:40 PM, Darthbryan said:

There is an oversupply that is on the horizon.  With CGC backed up for months and months that means people emptied the short boxes and sent what are likely to be desirable keys into CGC with hopes of cashing out.  Problem is they’ve now missed their window.  The next 12 months will be interesting, as those books hit mailboxes and start finding their way to market.  

The wait may be so long that the books may get hot again

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 9/25/2021 at 5:40 PM, Darthbryan said:

There is an oversupply that is on the horizon.  With CGC backed up for months and months that means people emptied the short boxes and sent what are likely to be desirable keys into CGC with hopes of cashing out.  Problem is they’ve now missed their window.  The next 12 months will be interesting, as those books hit mailboxes and start finding their way to market.  

This is a very astute observation -- you're not the first person I've seen saying this, but it hasn't been said enough.

Your prediction of a supply spike won't necessarily come true -- or, more precisely, it won't necessarily come true for all issues in all grades.  We'll almost certainly see obscene over-supply of modern books and even Bronze Age books.  The further back in time we go, (I would presume) the more likely we'll encounter issues for which the vast majority of the better-preserved copies had already been graded.  I guess we'll learn which books truly are scarce, since the incentive to submit has never been greater.

 

Does anyone know how often CGC updates the census?  Let's say I've submitted some books and I finally get the alert that the grades are in.  How soon after that will my books be reflected in the census report?  You'd think it ought to be immediate, but I assume nothing.

 

[MetalPSI]

On 9/25/2021 at 7:58 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

This is a very astute observation -- you're not the first person I've seen saying this, but it hasn't been said enough.

Your prediction of a supply spike won't necessarily come true -- or, more precisely, it won't necessarily come true for all issues in all grades.  We'll almost certainly see obscene over-supply of modern books and even Bronze Age books.  The further back in time we go, (I would presume) the more likely we'll encounter issues for which the vast majority of the better-preserved copies had already been graded.  I guess we'll learn which books truly are scarce, since the incentive to submit has never been greater.

 

Does anyone know how often CGC updates the census?  Let's say I've submitted some books and I finally get the alert that the grades are in.  How soon after that will my books be reflected in the census report?  You'd think it ought to be immediate, but I assume nothing.

 

There's a thread for updating existing sets with new issues for the registry. I imagine those cert numbers have to be in the system before any such requests can be completed. Which might explain why it takes sometimes months to update an existing set.

Totally hypothetical here, but I imagine as soon as a book is assigned a cert number, it's scanned into the system, so it's probably somewhere between grading and encapsulation 

[Xenosmilus]

On 9/25/2021 at 9:58 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Does anyone know how often CGC updates the census?  Let's say I've submitted some books and I finally get the alert that the grades are in.  How soon after that will my books be reflected in the census report?  You'd think it ought to be immediate, but I assume nothing.

I believe every Monday. I think high grade books from 1975 and on will increase in in the census but I don't think it will be true for pre-1975 books. Case in point I was told I was crazy for spending 1K on a Marvel Team-Up #10 CGC 9.8 back in 2020 (pre- massive price increase).  There was only 2 books graded art 9.8.  A new one can up for auction which I had to have.  I knew one of the people that had the 9.8 and they were never going to sell it. There are still only 3. 

[Robot Man]

On 9/25/2021 at 7:43 AM, lizards2 said:

Never thought an 8.0 would be considered high grade..., 

Those early Marvels sure seem to have a Charlton quality about them.

I remember when a current 8.0 would be by most to be “mint”. 

[lizards2]

On 9/26/2021 at 9:52 AM, Robot Man said:

On 9/25/2021 at 7:43 AM, lizards2 said:

Never thought an 8.0 would be considered high grade..., 

Those early Marvels sure seem to have a Charlton quality about them.

I remember when a current 8.0 would be by most to be “mint”. 

That is true too!

I remember when grading was more lumping than splitting. There just were not all these micro-gradations.

I find stuff that I graded 30-40 years ago, and some of the "Mints" are now 9.0s, but happily, some of the "Fines" are 8.0/8.5s

I think the grade that has taken the biggest hit over the years is "Fine".  A "Fine" book used to be something nice, but today's "Fine" is yesterday's "VG"

I look still look at the "Fines" posted on here, and think, 'no its not'

 

[Darthbryan]

On 9/25/2021 at 9:58 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

This is a very astute observation -- you're not the first person I've seen saying this, but it hasn't been said enough.

Your prediction of a supply spike won't necessarily come true -- or, more precisely, it won't necessarily come true for all issues in all grades.  We'll almost certainly see obscene over-supply of modern books and even Bronze Age books.  The further back in time we go, (I would presume) the more likely we'll encounter issues for which the vast majority of the better-preserved copies had already been graded.  I guess we'll learn which books truly are scarce, since the incentive to submit has never been greater.

 

Yea my guess is the bulk of what we’ll see hitting will be higher grade Bronze and Copper Age keys.  We’re not going to move the needle on desirable Silver Age.  Again, just a complete gut feeling but some of the record prices on really high grade books likely shook loose some books from collections where collectors have eschewed CGC.  

[Darthbryan]

On 9/26/2021 at 12:52 PM, Robot Man said:

I remember when a current 8.0 would be by most to be “mint”. 

Absolutely, especially with comic shops.  In retrospect it’s hard to determine if a lot of the old school comic shops didn’t know how to grade, or just didn’t care.  

[Robot Man]

On 9/26/2021 at 10:40 AM, Darthbryan said:

Absolutely, especially with comic shops.  In retrospect it’s hard to determine if a lot of the old school comic shops didn’t know how to grade, or just didn’t care.  

I really don’t think that was the case. Sure, there have always been sellers that don’t know how to grade. Then and now. But there were a lot less material available back then. Especially high grade. 

When I started collecting, one could not be too picky. If you were lucky enough to find a book you wanted, you jumped on it and worried about upgrading it later it or you did without. 

The Church collection really turned us on to what a real “mint” book looked like. Probably, the first instance of costing multiples of “Guide”. People were horrified until they held a raw copy in their hands. 

Personally, I prefer books in the 5.0-8.0 area now. Books that are are solid and pretty and ones you don’t have to “morgage the farm” to buy. 

Above 8.0, the tiny imperfections start getting minuscule. 

I enjoy my books more than the grade. Not saying I won’t buy higher or lower grades if the price is right. But, a nice presenting copy at a decent price is fine with me. 

[Bird]

they ease a bit but now they climb

[Bookery]

On 9/26/2021 at 1:33 PM, lizards2 said:

I remember when grading was more lumping than splitting. There just were not all these micro-gradations.

I'm going the opposite direction.  It simply takes too long to nitpick-grade all of the comics I have to process anymore.

I've reduced all of my pricing labels items to 2 grades... "Nice"... and "Not so much".

[waaaghboss]

On 9/25/2021 at 7:45 AM, rsouxlja7 said:

Pretty funny reading post histories of some of the doomers here and seeing they've been calling for a comic market crash for nearly 3 years or more depending on how far back into their post histories I was bored enough to read 

Having lived through the collapse of the mid 90s can traumatize oneself.  You'll always be looking at the market waiting for the next bubble burst.  

[blazingbob]

On 9/26/2021 at 2:05 PM, Bookery said:

I'm going the opposite direction.  It simply takes too long to nitpick-grade all of the comics I have to process anymore.

I've reduced all of my pricing labels items to 2 grades... "Nice"... and "Not so much".

Formerly NM works a lot better

 

[alexgross.com]

On 9/26/2021 at 11:26 AM, blazingbob said:

Formerly NM works a lot better

 

hows the market these days bob?

[blazingbob]

On 9/26/2021 at 4:11 PM, alexgross.com said:

hows the market these days bob?

I'm sorry,   market opinions are now a "Pay as you go" service.

 

[alexgross.com]

On 9/26/2021 at 1:16 PM, blazingbob said:

I'm sorry,   market opinions are now a "Pay as you go" service.

 

i'll paypal you a dollar fifty per paragraph...