Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[dikran]

Where is the Disney hype machine for Eternals?

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/7/2021 at 11:37 AM, 1Cool said:

Could you explain your reasoning a bit more since I'm not sure I get your point.  Are you saying $100 is not much money or getting $100 9.8s slabbed is a waste of time and money?

Thanks for the questions ... but I think I should back up and say my original premise was that of the books shown in the photo, Spider-Man #1 was an outlier in terms of value.  It's by far the least valuable of the books shown, and that's all I was trying to say in my original post.

That said, I do believe that $100 isn't enough money to be considered a serious investment.  Sure, if someone wanted to buy a collectible and was just getting started or simply not interested in the deeper end of the pool, $100 is a nice way to get in on the action and have a bit of fun.  I'm not a gambler so I would feel the same way if my friends dragged me to a casino and I blew $100 in one night -- I had some fun, I didn't spend much more than I might have on some other form of entertainment, and I got a little of that experience.

Also since it's come up a couple of times, of course I consider $100 to be a nice return if I got the book for cover price, and much more so if I got it for a fraction of cover price.  But of course getting books slabbed comes with hard costs as well as an investment of precious time.  I generally would never bother to submit a book if the best possible scenario is $100 in value and I know that anything less than 9.8 is going to be break-even (on the hard costs) or worse.  I've submitted a couple thousand books from my personal collection and I had to draw the line somewhere.  There was no way I could justify getting everything slabbed.  So that experience informs my thinking for sure.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/7/2021 at 11:53 AM, DC# said:

Session 3  - day 2.     I am being very selective in what I am looking at....there are soooooo many books.    Some sales are not even covering the grading fees.   I do wonder why some books ever got slabbed.

 

Thanks once again for the continued analysis and information!

This (sort of, bear with me) tracks with what I said in my other post above -- IMHO speculating on modern books is a very iffy game once you fall below 9.8, and forget about anything below 9.6.  As you say ... I don't know why some books ever get slabbed.

[DC#]

On 10/7/2021 at 9:49 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Thanks once again for the continued analysis and information!

This (sort of, bear with me) tracks with what I said in my other post above -- IMHO speculating on modern books is a very iffy game once you fall below 9.8, and forget about anything below 9.6.  As you say ... I don't know why some books ever get slabbed.

I am working on another analysis project in my spare time.    Trying to create a "DOW 30" equivalent in CGC comics as an index for the overall state of the market.    Idea is to take representative books (no more than 1 issue per title to avoid skewing when a particular title gets hot) - 10 Silver, 10 Bronze, and 10 Copper/Modern - and look at 3 separate grades per book.   So this DOW 30 will actually be based on the value of 90 books.   Going all the way back to 2016 so it is taking some time    Will share more as I get further along.    Or someone tell me if there is already an app or site that is doing this exact thing and I will stop wasting my time    

[dikran]

On 10/7/2021 at 12:49 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Thanks once again for the continued analysis and information!

This (sort of, bear with me) tracks with what I said in my other post above -- IMHO speculating on modern books is a very iffy game once you fall below 9.8, and forget about anything below 9.6.  As you say ... I don't know why some books ever get slabbed.

Well when the spread between 9.8 and 9.6 is ridiculously wide, I tend to lean towards the 9.6 for moderns. Look at books like Ultimate Fallout 4, Vengeance 1 or Blue Marvel 1 etc. where 9.8s are in the thousands and 9.6s are 60-70% lower. I still think there's long term value in ''lower'' grade modern keys as potential buyers/collectors get priced out of the 9.8 stratosphere.

[Callaway29]

On 10/7/2021 at 12:59 PM, DC# said:

I am working on another analysis project in my spare time.    Trying to create a "DOW 30" equivalent in CGC comics as an index for the overall state of the market.    Idea is to take representative books (no more than 1 issue per title to avoid skewing when a particular title gets hot) - 10 Silver, 10 Bronze, and 10 Copper/Modern - and look at 3 separate grades per book.   So this DOW 30 will actually be based on the value of 90 books.   Going all the way back to 2016 so it is taking some time    Will share more as I get further along.    Or someone tell me if there is already an app or site that is doing this exact thing and I will stop wasting my time    

This sounds right up @valiantman's alley... 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/7/2021 at 1:12 PM, dikran1 said:

Well when the spread between 9.8 and 9.6 is ridiculously wide, I tend to lean towards the 9.6 for moderns. Look at books like Ultimate Fallout 4, Vengeance 1 or Blue Marvel 1 etc. where 9.8s are in the thousands and 9.6s are 60-70% lower. I still think there's long term value in ''lower'' grade modern keys as potential buyers/collectors get priced out of the 9.8 stratosphere.

Interesting.  I look at it differently -- the gap between 9.8 and 9.6, or 9.6 and 9.4, or 9.0 and 8.0 (and so on) keeps growing and growing, which means the returns are higher for higher grades.  I believe the data bears this out across the ages.  To the extent that anyone harbors fear in the back of their mind that an inevitable cooling off or correction is coming, it stands to reason that higher-grade books (and, to the point I was making earlier, especially books that are genuinely short supply) will do a much better job of holding their value.  So yes, it costs more to invest at the upper end but it's also a much, much better bet.

[valiantman]

On 10/7/2021 at 12:22 PM, Callaway29 said:

On 10/7/2021 at 11:59 AM, DC# said:

I am working on another analysis project in my spare time.    Trying to create a "DOW 30" equivalent in CGC comics as an index for the overall state of the market.    Idea is to take representative books (no more than 1 issue per title to avoid skewing when a particular title gets hot) - 10 Silver, 10 Bronze, and 10 Copper/Modern - and look at 3 separate grades per book.   So this DOW 30 will actually be based on the value of 90 books.   Going all the way back to 2016 so it is taking some time    Will share more as I get further along.    Or someone tell me if there is already an app or site that is doing this exact thing and I will stop wasting my time    

This sounds right up @valiantman's alley... 

Yes, I'm working on something similar now.  There are some limitations with what @DC# described because unless the books are similar values, you'll have the huge keys completely outweighing the movement of smaller keys.

To offset this problem with major/minor keys, I'm using the "market cap" concept (value times supply) and trying to do an estimate that doesn't need dozens of calculation per book.  That's where cgcemc.com comes in.

Working from hundreds of books, it will be fairly simple to select representatives to build an index - and then to look back through the decades (of CGC) to see how the index looks historically.

[valiantman]

On 10/7/2021 at 12:30 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Interesting.  I look at it differently -- the gap between 9.8 and 9.6, or 9.6 and 9.4, or 9.0 and 8.0 (and so on) keeps growing and growing, which means the returns are higher for higher grades.  I believe the data bears this out across the ages.  To the extent that anyone harbors fear in the back of their mind that an inevitable cooling off or correction is coming, it stands to reason that higher-grade books (and, to the point I was making earlier, especially books that are genuinely short supply) will do a much better job of holding their value.  So yes, it costs more to invest at the upper end but it's also a much, much better bet.

Many examples are the opposite of this advice.

https://comics.gpanalysis.com/try-out/sales-data/41/181

You could get 10 copies of CGC 6.0 Hulk #181 for $4,000 in 2010.  They'd be worth $55,000 today.  You could sell 1, get all your investment back and hold 9 of them.

You could get 1 copy of CGC 9.6 Hulk #181 for $4,000 in 2010.  It would be worth $30,000 today.  You can't get your investment back without selling the whole thing.

If only the system had some kind of fractional sale options, it would be possible to get your original investment back and hang onto the majority of the book worth half as much from traditional investing. 

Edited October 7, 2021 by valiantman

[DC#]

On 10/7/2021 at 10:32 AM, valiantman said:

Yes, I'm working on something similar now.  There are some limitations with what @DC# described because unless the books are similar values, you'll have the huge keys completely outweighing the movement of smaller keys.

To offset this problem with major/minor keys, I'm using the "market cap" concept (value times supply) and trying to do an estimate that doesn't need dozens of calculation per book.  That's where cgcemc.com comes in.

Working from hundreds of books, it will be fairly simple to select representatives to build an index - and then to look back through the decades (of CGC) to see how the index looks historically.

Will be interesting to see what you come up with.    I will also note that the Dow 30 is made up of companies with Market caps ranging from $44B to $2.4T and is definitely price-weighted.   Microsoft will have a much bigger impact on your daily results than Walgreens.   Anyway - I am not a statistician but I have played one on TV.....

I'll post whenever I get it done and let people shoot it down.  

[WolverineX]

On 10/7/2021 at 1:12 PM, dikran1 said:

Well when the spread between 9.8 and 9.6 is ridiculously wide, I tend to lean towards the 9.6 for moderns. Look at books like Ultimate Fallout 4, Vengeance 1 or Blue Marvel 1 etc. where 9.8s are in the thousands and 9.6s are 60-70% lower. I still think there's long term value in ''lower'' grade modern keys as potential buyers/collectors get priced out of the 9.8 stratosphere.

I only buy 9.4s.  

[Vixom]

On 10/7/2021 at 8:19 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I am highly skeptical.  Rules of supply and demand do apply.

I do it all the time. Some book gets hot because of a tv show or something and you only have a one month window. Ebay buy it now lowest price which is still above fmv and refuse any offers below fmv. Ebay auctions, don't sell unless fmv. Facebook. Instagram. Consignments. All the different auction sites. Not everyone shops at the same market. Some books I really believed in and or wanted variants so I bought 1000 copies. Impossible for me to sell all in a month but so far when they got hot they stayed hot or kept getting hotter. Deadpool rogue blackcat isn't going anywhere but up so that guy has all the time to sell. But some books are tuff. I bought a collection from a bad speculator though actually the pandemic made him look pretty smart. This spring I tried my best to pound out all that drek that doubled in value. Spawn 1 9. They dropped I think $100 almost. Still left holding a few 9s that sold for near 300 and now can't move for near 200. I told my kids get rid of them. I am in them for like $20 or $30. But if you waited they will probably go up some day. So yeah, too much supply and not enough demand. Same with that spider girl Anya. I didn't have nearly as many but the demand was short and the supply was big. It seemed like there was a week window and it went from $500 to $200 or something. I remember it dropped fast. But silk gwen miles aphra ms marvel riri, hot popular stuff you can't flood the market. All those books pictured are safe. They should have been sold years ago though. Maybe hold on black cat if you don't need money to put elsewhere. But Deadpool should have been gone the first movie. Rogue when that ms marvel rumor came out.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 10/7/2021 at 2:41 PM, Thisisrequired said:

I do it all the time. Some book gets hot because of a tv show or something and you only have a one month window. Ebay buy it now lowest price which is still above fmv and refuse any offers below fmv. Ebay auctions, don't sell unless fmv. Facebook. Instagram. Consignments. All the different auction sites. Not everyone shops at the same market. Some books I really believed in and or wanted variants so I bought 1000 copies. Impossible for me to sell all in a month but so far when they got hot they stayed hot or kept getting hotter. Deadpool rogue blackcat isn't going anywhere but up so that guy has all the time to sell. But some books are tuff. I bought a collection from a bad speculator though actually the pandemic made him look pretty smart. This spring I tried my best to pound out all that drek that doubled in value. Spawn 1 9. They dropped I think $100 almost. Still left holding a few 9s that sold for near 300 and now can't move for near 200. I told my kids get rid of them. I am in them for like $20 or $30. But if you waited they will probably go up some day. So yeah, too much supply and not enough demand. Same with that spider girl Anya. I didn't have nearly as many but the demand was short and the supply was big. It seemed like there was a week window and it went from $500 to $200 or something. I remember it dropped fast. But silk gwen miles aphra ms marvel riri, hot popular stuff you can't flood the market. All those books pictured are safe. They should have been sold years ago though. Maybe hold on black cat if you don't need money to put elsewhere. But Deadpool should have been gone the first movie. Rogue when that ms marvel rumor came out.

Kudos.  Sounds like a full-time job.

[HighVoltage]

On 10/6/2021 at 7:21 PM, blazingbob said:

I see you missed the "just in time" inventory management class.  

How's that working out for everyone in the current state of the supply chain...

[Vixom]

On 10/7/2021 at 2:55 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Kudos.  Sounds like a full-time job.

It can be. But when something you paid $2 or $3 becomes $500 or $800 you gotta do something with it. That's what kids are for. I could be a softie and just hand them out money but I make them earn it. My hobby used to be collecting comics. Now selling comics has become just as interesting. Not sure how interested my kids would be in comics if not for the financial reward. I like seeing the price chart in this thread. Many books I thought were doing strong dropped a nice chunk. It's fun work for us though. But if you wanted to ( and we do ) you could simply ship a ton of books to a half dozen consigners and let them do all the work and just collect your money. My comic shop would store your books for decades for free fully insured and you could just wait until something sold for top dollar. Now they have a limit of few years or you pay fees. 

[PKJ]

Good thing these books got sent in in April based on current sales trends 

 

[Vixom]

On 10/7/2021 at 3:51 PM, PKJ said:

Good thing these books got sent in in April based on current sales trends 

 

Ever use a auction house? I sent a ton of raws to CL this winter, they got slabbed for a nice discount and back a month or two later to be sold in the april and may auctions. I was pleased with the service. Don't think I will ever send books to cgc again. Just let a VIP do it. Not easy to time the peak and it's a short window. Those books still have decent value. 

[WolverineX]

On 10/7/2021 at 4:28 PM, Thisisrequired said:

Ever use a auction house? I sent a ton of raws to CL this winter, they got slabbed for a nice discount and back a month or two later to be sold in the april and may auctions. I was pleased with the service. Don't think I will ever send books to cgc again. Just let a VIP do it. Not easy to time the peak and it's a short window. Those books still have decent value. 

I had no idea comiclink offered the service. How much do they charge?

[PKJ]

On 10/7/2021 at 4:28 PM, Thisisrequired said:

Ever use a auction house? I sent a ton of raws to CL this winter, they got slabbed for a nice discount and back a month or two later to be sold in the april and may auctions. I was pleased with the service. Don't think I will ever send books to cgc again. Just let a VIP do it. Not easy to time the peak and it's a short window. Those books still have decent value. 

I have but never sent them raw before, it was more of a joke since nearly each issue has been noted as tumbling, they went to Joey first so I expected them to take a while.  4 of them I bought off the rack.

I sorta hope they got mixed up with @greggy 's submissions so they get through as fast as his normally get through. 

Edited October 7, 2021 by PKJ

[Vixom]

On 10/7/2021 at 4:32 PM, PKJ said:

I have but it was more of a joke since nearly each issue has been noted as tumbling, they went to Joey first so I expected them to take a while.  4 of them I bought off the rack.

I sorta hope that got mixed up with @greggy 's submissions so they get through as fast as his do. 

I hear you. CGC always treated me good but they really treat CL good. Same with CVA. My guess is most big dealers get treated well so I am going to let them handle things.